There were three changes that were put into effect for this season:
1) The Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System has been introduced. This is the most significant of the cha
nges and could have a major impact on the game. At first glance, it seems inobtrusive: each team gets two challenges to ball-strike calls during a regulation game (plus one more if it goes into extra innings). However, if a team successfully challenges a call, the chance is not lost. That means that multiple successful challenges could ensue. Only the pitcher, catcher, or batter can challenge a call. I will have much more to say on this rule change a little later.
2) The coaches’ boxes at first and third base are going to be enforced. When the pitcher is on the rubber, coaches must be within the box. A warning is issued on the first violation, and an ejection follows the second. It looks like this will add two more rows to the Mets’ depth chart – one for first base coaches, and one for third base coaches.
3) Runners cannot initiate contact with fielders to force an obstruction call. The rule change modifies the definition of “unsportsmanlike conduct” to include a runner committing an intentional act of interference unrelated to running the bases while in a rundown or avoiding a tag. If a runner is guilty of this, the umpires will rule him out and all other runners will return to the base last touched.
Of the three rule changes, the ABS will undoubtedly have the most impact on the game. The ABS has been evaluated in the minor leagues for a few years to work out some of the bugs and has now been declared as “ready”.
The testing over the last few years was done at the AAA level. One observation that I had as it unfolded was that the ERA of pitchers in leagues that used the ABS was noticeably higher. One can infer from this observation that the pitchers were forced to throw in the strike zone more because they could not get away with balls that broke around the plate or expertly framed by catchers. With more balls thrown in the strike zone, batters have the advantage and therefore more hits and runs result.
The limit of two (unsuccessful) challenges per game is also something noteworthy. As all of us know from watching ball games, both batters and pitchers get emotional at times over calls that went against them on close pitches. It is easy to project that the two challenges could be wasted in the early innings by emotional rather than rational decisions on when to challenge a call.
All this requires strategic adaptation by the teams. They can’t just go into the season without an established plan to make these changes work to their advantage. Here are a few things that I am sure are being debated amongst club leadership right now:
• Club rules on who can challenge and when. As mentioned before, pitchers and hitters can quickly exhaust challenges with emotional reactions. Clubs are going to have to decide who can initiate a challenge. My guess is that the catcher is the only defensive player that will be allowed to challenge. Catchers see every pitch, they learn where the umpire’s strike zone sits, and they will adjust that learning based upon any challenges that are successful. From the hitters’ side, clubs will likely choose which players will be allowed to use a challenge. As an example, Juan Soto has a superb eye for the zone, and he has a much higher probability of success in a challenge than someone that does not recognize pitches well and has a high chase rate. If a club does not have a “Soto”, they may establish a rule that the challenges can only be used on defense unless it is a last-inning pivotal at-bat.
• Managerial decisions on pulling pitchers will need adjustment. If in fact the ERAs are going to go up in a similar fashion to the minors, then pulling a starter early because he is giving up more hits/runs will be useless, since the next guy in will probably have the same misfortune. The quick hook of last season’s Carlos Mendoza would be disastrous in this scenario.
• Modify the approach at the plate. If you accept the premise that pitchers will be forced by ABS to throw more pitches in the strike zone, then you must agree that a more aggressive approach at the plate is warranted. As always, batters have much more success when ahead in the count because the pressure is on the pitcher to throw a strike. Prior approaches that were taught included waiting on a specific pitch in a favorable area because pitchers would try to nibble the corners and make the batter chase. If this tactic is not successful anymore because of ABS, then pitchers will have to throw more early strikes to get ahead themselves. The obvious counter is for batters to sit on those early strikes and be prepared to drive the ball.
• Defensive shift evolutions. If you believe that batters will become more aggressive early as just mentioned, then there will be more instances of balls pulled to the batter’s power zones. This would necessitate defensive alignment changes in anticipation of trends on where balls are hit.
I believe that the teams that think this through will come out of the gate with an advantage in the 2026 season. Those that do not will be playing catch-up to tactics that will probably be evolving continuously. Where will the Mets end up in all this? If you believe what we have been writing consistently on this site over the last few months, then put your money on the Mets taking the strategic approach.
6 comments:
Less pitcher nibbling and more walks. Batting averages have sunk. This should help. Strategy on when to challenge should be extensively discussed by the team.
Excellent piece. The discussion of strategic responses to the new rules is welcome and makes the piece even more informative. The response I am looking forward to seeing is how pitcher's look at the first pitch in an at bat. My instinct as an ex-ex- pitcher would be to throw my best secondary pitch that I can throw for a strike. See how that goes and then revise as necessary. If it works the first time on a particular batter and they let it go, I would throw it the second at bat, but not for a strike and see if they chase it. Another pitcher who has a terrific cutter that looks like a fastball out of the hand might be able to take advantage of aggressive hitters. More cat and mousing, but thankfully much less nibbling.
I never understood the attraction of Heffner's approach. Too many walks, too many pitches thrown, too many infielders loosing focus as a result. And too damn obvious.
Paul’s post is a really sharp read, especially in how it frames ABS not as a rules tweak but as a strategic forcing function.
What struck me most is that ABS doesn’t just change pitch calling or challenge usage, it changes where advantage comes from. Systems that relied on gray areas — framing, nibbling, emotional leverage, reactionary hooks — lose oxygen. Systems built around repeatable decision-making, defined authority, and comfort with variance gain it.
That’s why this feels especially relevant to the Mets right now. Over the last year, we’ve been writing about an organizational shift toward structure over improvisation, process over patchwork, and durability over short-term edge-hunting. ABS is the kind of environment that quietly rewards that mindset.
There’s a much bigger conversation here about pitching usage, offensive approach, challenge governance, and even defensive alignment that deserves its own post. I’ll dig into that later this week. But if you’re looking for a rule change that reveals organizational philosophy rather than just tactics, this is the one to watch.
In one sense, I can understand nibbling, because far more HRs are hit by today’s bigger, stronger players than in days of yore. The long flyball outs of yesteryear are today’s HRs.
I'm also curious to find out what ABS considers a strike lol. We shall find out. tall guys short guys, this will be fun.
Per Dove’s comment, I believe that I read one time that the ABS will be pre-programmed. I don’t know why they can’t put a chip in the fabric of the uniform at the knees and at the letters.
Mendoza in an interview, with a laugh, said of course Soto will always have the green light to challenge. However, I would think that there shouldn’t be a n y challenges before the sixth inning. No reason for it. How many calls can the umpires miss? Now, you say, ‘Gus, bases loaded and two out in the fourth, you let that go’? I say yes, because you had chances before it went to two strikes, but I also need spring training to see the system in play. However, that’s my pre season thought. Maybe that gets adjusted for how many men on base and how many outs.
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