Paul Articulates - Where can this go?

After getting swept by the Miami Marlins and splitting a series with the Washington Nationals, your New York Mets stand at 22-31, in last place in the NL East.  Their 3-7 record against the bottom of the NL East puts them in a tough place if they have any post-season aspirations remaining.

That in fact is the subject of this post.  There is no credible way that I could suggest that this could be a playoff team with the way they have performed for the last six weeks.  However, there have been times in history where a team found itself late and surged to success.  

Let’s look at some examples:

1) We were reminded during the last series that the 2019 Washington Nationals started a dismal 19-31, possessing one of the worst 50-game records for a playoff-bound team. They rallied to grab an NL Wild Card spot and ultimately won the World Series.

2) In 2022, there were two teams: Philadelphia and Seattle, that had 21-29 records in their first 50 games.  Both made the playoffs and the Phillies actually went all the way to the World Series.

3) In 1914, when there was not a generous wild card playoff bracket, the Boston "Miracle" Braves had a 26-40 record which was good for last place on July 4th. They went on to win the NL pennant and swept the World Series.

4) And of course, the 1969 and 2015 Mets teams had remarkable late surges themselves to become World Series teams.  The 2024 team came close – more on this later.

You may wonder why I am bringing up hope in the midst of despair and the reason is simple: baseball is a game of ebbs and flows that is host to some of the most mind-boggling streaks in sports.  Yes, the Mets are currently in the midst of their second consecutive year with a mind-boggling streak, but with 109 games to go there is plenty of time to re-coin the term “amazing”.

What is the math?

The prevailing trends indicate that 89-90 wins are needed to secure the last wild card berth.  For a 22-31 team to win 89 games, they must go 67-42 over their last 109 games, which is a .615 winning percentage.  That may seem like a stretch for a team that can’t win a series against the Nationals or Marlins, but it is a very reasonable record for a team worthy of playoff contention.

The Mets have 33 series remaining this season, and if they won or tied each series (won=2 of 3, tied=2 of 4) they would accumulate 66 wins.  Winning every series is not realistic, but sweeping a few and winning most is what one would expect of a playoff contender.

Just a couple years ago, the 2024 Mets started at 22-33 and then went 67–40 the rest of the way to finish with a 89–73 record.  That happened when a misfunctioning team closed the doors and sorted out what needed to change and then played a little closer to (some would say above) their potential.

Where is this going?

I am not trying to sell you on a complete turnaround, nor am I of the mind to convince you that this team has the pieces it needs to go on a 2024-like run.  I am telling you it is possible under the right circumstances with the right mental state.  With the latest trend of bringing new young talent up to give them a shot to prove their worth, there is certainly not going to be any quit in this team because young players are contending for a job and veterans are trying to keep theirs.

So now I turn the floor to the readers – do you think that this team eventually turns out of this dive and competes?  Do you think they may have it in them to make a run?  Or do you think that it is time to sell, sell, sell at the trade deadline and make the fans sit through another rebuild?