Reese Kaplan -- Looking at the Mets Future Starting Rotation

Saturday night’s pitching disaster by David Stearns trade acquisition Freddy Peralta (with compensating bad efforts from Tobias Myers and others as well) demonstrated a few things to the Mets fan base and the media that covers the team.  The bigger issue for the Mets right now would seem to be the value of pending free agent Freddy Peralta who created his own highlight reel of a Charlie Brown type of pitcher who not only wouldn’t earn the super big payday he’s been assuming was his at year’s end.

For the Mets the horrific batting practice performance against the Phillies makes Peralta’s current value even worse.  Everyone had been under the assumption that when the Mets made the determination that they were not likely to make a miracle run into contention as the trade deadline that they would then maximize the short term gain by peddling Peralta to the highest bidder who would offer up good trade options to help correct the miscue made in obtaining him in the first place.

Furthermore, if the Mets went the other way to keep Peralta to year’s end then they have a new ugly issue to solve.  They could attempt to sign him to an extension, a move which right now would have many people among the media and fans ready to get the pitchforks and torches to show their unrelenting hostility about the front office actions. 

Unfortunately, it’s nearly as bad if they went the other way.  They could choose to give him a QO which would be worth close to $20 million, a $12 million increase over his 2026 salary, in the hopes of getting a compensatory pick if he turned it down.  While that is a good thing, they run the risk of him accepting it and then the team needs to figure out which Peralta they would be getting for $20 million in 2027.  Think of it as the Sean Manaea problem (minus the injury issues).  Are the Mets getting good value out of Manaea?  Would it make sense for them to repeat this poor planning with Peralta?

Assuming that Peralta has indeed played himself out of the Mets future plans, what does the 2027 pitching staff look like?  Frankly, it’s not great but it’s not awful either.  Without Peralta the Mets 2027 rotation would include Nolan McLean, Clay Holmes, Christian Scott, Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga with Jonah Tong and Tylor Megill as not very appealing backup options.  David Peterson is a free agent and it’s highly unlikely he would be welcomed back nor receive a QO.  If Manaea and Senga pitched as they did in their better days then it’s not a bad staff at all.  Many might clamor for the Mets to acquire arms via trade or free agency but given how poorly the front office has handled both during the Stearns regime it might be better to put that kind of attention to other positions of need.

So what is the consensus here about Peralta?  Is he just going through a rough stretch, is he perhaps dealing with an undisclosed injury or is he simply not that good?  His track record is sensational but as we’ve all seen with both pitchers and hitters what’s on the back of the baseball card is not a guarantee of future success?  If it’s a trade deadline transaction, what would be an equitable return?