Reese Kaplan -- Who Could Be On the Move at Trading Deadline?

As we’re more than halfway through June with the early August trade deadline creeping up on everyone the Mets need to assess who is here now, who will be here in the future and who may net them a better result as a trade chip than by maintaining the status quo.

The first group is the easiest collection of Mets players to place on the open market.  Freddy Peralta, A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley, David Peterson and injured Tyrone Taylor are all slated to be unrestricted free agents for the 2027 season.  That makes each of them short term gains for the acquiring team without any financial obligation beyond October if that team makes it into the post season. 

The next one who is an interesting option is also injured Luis Robert, Jr.  He’s on tap to make $20 million for the 2027 season otherwise he needs to be paid a $2 million buyout.  Given the fact he is not currently playing, it’s doubtful they would find a taker for him even if they offered to pay down the current 2026 salary.  Given A.J. Ewing’s success in his promotion by necessity it would seem that Robert’s days as a Met would come to a close at the end of this season.  It’s surely more appealing to pay a $2 million buyout than be on the hook again for $20 million for a guy who is unable to stay on the field (and not producing with the bat when he does).

Then there is the question of the future of Bo Bichette who has recently come to life with his bat.  Is he playing like he’s worth $42 million for this year and next?  Surely not.  However, the decision of whether or not he would be here in 2027 is a question Bichette and his agent need to analyze.  A guaranteed $42 million is certainly quite appealing but that deal ends after 2027.  Would they think it would be better to lock down say a 5 year contract for $175 then simply living out this single year for $42 million?  It’s a nice problem for him to have.  Should he opt out the Mets would then owe him $5 million in compensation. 

The next group of possibly tradeable players are the ones whose contracts end when the 2027 season concludes.  This group would include currently injured Clay Holmes who is owed $12 million next year, Sean Manaea who is owed $25 million next year (ouch!), Jorge Polanco who is owed $20 million and Luke Weaver who is owned $12.5 million.  None of them are must-trade candidates though Manaea walking out the door likely wouldn’t cause anyone to have a negative reaction given how little he’s pitched this year and last.

After that you have the arbitration eligible players who would have a salary determined by a mediator.  This group includes the Mendoza line left fielder M.J. Melendez, Huascar Brazoban, Mark Vientos and Brett Baty.  Parting with any of the the last three would be a significant change in terms of Mets roster construction.  

Melendez is showing us his AAAA talent level and his loss wouldn’t hurt very much (but neither would any gain he nets help much either). 

So if you are the do-nothing POBO, what is the approach to take?  

It would seem that the departing free agents should all be peddled to the highest bidders.  Of the next group, only Manaea seems to make sense to pay down to get another team to bite.  The final group is very much up in the air with Brazoban seeming to be the most valuable of the quartet.