Pujols/Wilson Fallout

The Cardinals enter the POST-Pujols era today and I'm betting they just have Berkman move over to first and focus on other areas (Heck, sign Carlos Betran to play RF) . There are other teams that are directly affected by the signings. Here are some of those teams that are affected by the moves and how I think they might react.

The Chicago Cubs: Prince Fielder is no longer so extremely essential as the Angels are adding Mark Trumbo and Kendrys Morales to the mix of 1B candidates. Now... the Cubs don't have a lot of trade chips to offer but a three team deal with Texas and LA involving Garza and Morales/Trumbo could work for everyone. However... I betting Fielder lands in Chicago anyway.

The New York Yankees: Pujols doesn't matter but C.J. Wilson going off the market that leaves the Yankees with a SINGLE impact pitcher available. What makes this worse is that I foresee in my crystal ball that Boston and their Japanese speaking manager will be signing Yu Know Who (I think it would also be a great sitcom if Darvish and Valentine were roommates). What does that mean? Well... it means the Yankees will probably need to make a trade or be left behind. The Mets are a viable option on two fronts: 1) The Yankees could move Burnett away in a deal that involves Jason Bay (Maybe Mike Pelfrey too) or 2) They can go after Jon Niese. The rub? The Mets will want Montero... and Montero... and Montero.

The Florida Marlins: The rumors about them and Fielder... just don't make sense. UNLESS they were planning to move Gaby Sanchez for a big-time pitcher... which I can't see. I'm betting that the Marlins are pretty much done with Bell, Reyes and Buehrle. Frankly is a lineup of: Reyes, Sanchez, Ramirez, Stanton, Morrison that much worse than: Reyes, Ramirez, Stanton, Fielder, Morrison?

The Tampa Bay Rays: Look at all the available 1Bs... I think they can find a match for Trumbo or Morales. I also think that might keep them ahead of the AL East in terms of overall talent. Adding a switch hitting bat like Morales to the middle of their lineup would be huge.

The Milwaukee Brewers: If/When Fielder signs with the Marlins or Cubs... Mark Trumbo looks like a good fit to replace the Prince in the kingdom of Beer and Cheese. Not exactly sure who gets traded to LA but I'm thinking that the Angels will sort it out.

Crystal Ball Projections:

Prince Fielder: Goes to the Chicago Cubs For 6+ Years and $160+ Mil

Kendrys Morales: Traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for Prospects

Mark Trumbo: Traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for Prospects

Yu Darvish: Signed by the Boston Redsox

Yankees & Marlins: Don't do anything

Hot Stove: - C.J. Wilson, Wade LeBlanc, Grady Sizemore, Ryan Doumit, Chong Tae-Hyon

C.J. Wilson is expected to meet with Marlins officials in Miami soon after Thanksgiving. There are at least 13 teams interested in Wilson at this time and the bidding could easily rise above the Marlins' price range. But they have legitimate preliminary interest and will likely make an offer when the free agent left-hander visits, just as they did with free agent shortstop Jose Reyes and free agent first baseman Albert Pujols. Wilson, 30, posted a stellar 2.94 ERA and 206/74 K/BB ratio in 223 1/3 innings this past year for Texas. He's thought to be seeking a deal worth north of $100 million. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345676/baseball-headlines?r=1

Marlins acquired LHP Wade LeBlanc from the Padres for C John Baker. LeBlanc, 27, posted a 4.63 ERA and 51/28 K/BB ratio in 79 2/3 innings over 14 starts this season. The Marlins wanted to add a left-handed starter this offseason, so even though he has been mediocre outside of PETCO during his career, he could be a fit at the back-end of the rotation in 2012.  http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345703/baseball-headlines?r=1

Indians re-signed OF Grady Sizemore to a one-year, $5 million contract. As expected. Sizemore could earn an additional $4 million with incentives, which kicks in if he reaches 450 plate appearances. According to Jon Paul Morosi of FOXSports.com, the oft-injured 29-year-old could make a $500,000 bonus if he wins the Comeback Player of the Year Award. It's unlikely the Indians would be able to afford to re-sign him if he has a huge bounceback season in 2012, but they could dangle him in trade talks if they fall out of playoff contention.  http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345723/baseball-headlines?r=1

The Minnesota Twins have signed former Pittsburgh Pirates catcher Ryan Doumit to a one-year, $3 million deal, the team announced on its website. The deal was announced after Doumit passed a physical, the team said. The 30-year-old Doumit hit .303 with eight homers and 30 RBIs in 77 games for the Pirates last season. He also can play first base and the outfield and should give the Twins some much-needed versatility and offensive pop. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7273392/2011-free-agents-ryan-doumit-signs-minnesota-twins-one-year-3-million

The Baltimore Orioles are close to signing Chong Tae-Hyon- Or as we would say in America Tae-Hyon Chong. He is Korean. I don’t think the Indians call their guy Choo Shin-Soo so I’m pretty sure Chong will be on the back of the jersey. The Orioles have not officially signed this guy yet, but that’s because of Thanksgiving. The physical is being delayed by Thanksgiving and the announcement of his signing should happen this weekend or Monday - http://baltimoresportsreport.com/the-fantasy-gods-mlb-hot-stove-report-1124-21468.html

Hot Stove: - Yoenis Cespedes, C.J. Wilson, Matt Kemp, Michel Hernandez, Atlanta Braves

Yoenis Cespedes - Salary Command: IFA from Cuba could sign a deal similar to the one Aroldis Chapman received a few seasons ago.  Hypothetical Deal: 6 yrs; $35-$40 million dollars  Lost Compensation: None - Plus: The YouTube wonder has hit the stage and made everyone drool watching him and his abundance of tools.  He has shown power production and in limited international exposure the ability to become a five tool player.  He shows tremendous bat speed and is highly athletic, enough so that some feel safely about sticking him in center field.  He is just entering his prime and might need a short time adjusting to a major league program.  He has vast upside that can be had without committing the $100 million dollars that would come normally. He would be locked into service time until he is 32 years old and you will get the best years out of him for very cheap.  As much as I hate throwing out comps, I see a bit of Vladimir Guerrero type athletic ability in Cespedes. http://orioles-nation.com/2011/11/14/2012-potential-fa-outfielders

Rangers GM Jon Daniels said this weekend that he has remained in contact with free agent C.J. Wilson. Wilson has already drawn legitimate interest from a number of different major league teams, including the Angels, Nationals, Yankees and Marlins. But the Rangers are keeping tuned in on negotiations and will make an offer when they feel the time is right. Wilson, 30, posted a sparkling 2.94 ERA and 206/74 K/BB ratio in 223 1/3 innings this past year for Texas. He's likely to land a five- or six-year deal. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345225/baseball-headlines?r=1

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the Dodgers and Matt Kemp are engaging in serious discussions on an eight-year extension worth $160 million. Kemp is currently scheduled to become a free agent after the 2012 season, and the Dodgers want to lock him up long-term before he even gets a whiff of what might be available to him on the open market. $20 million per year over the course of eight years should do the trick. Kemp batted .324 with a .986 OPS, 39 homers, 40 steals and 126 RBI in 161 games this past season. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345224/baseball-headlines?r=1

The Indians have signed free-agent catcher Michel Hernandez to a Minor League contract for 2012 that includes a non-roster invitation to Spring Training, the club announced on Thursday. Hernandez, 33, originally signed with Cleveland on July 1, hitting a combined .320 with 10 doubles and 26 RBIs in 39 games between Double-A Akron and Triple-A Columbus. The 14-year Minor League veteran has a .263 career Minor League average for various clubs since defecting from Cuba in 1996 and being signed by the Yankees two years later.  http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20111110&content_id=25950978&vkey=news_cle&c_id=cle

Atlanta Braves Offseason agenda: What is the solution when a team expected to make the playoffs has two quality starters miss time with injuries, further taxing an overworked bullpen? And what about when five other core players, many of whom had subpar offensive seasons, combine to miss roughly 200 games because of injuries? General manager Frank Wren believes you get busy cooking on the hot stove. The Braves got rid of their hitting coach, traded righthander Derek Lowe in a salary dump and—in attempt to make room for their younger arms and add offense—are actively shopping promising starter Jair Jurrjens and infielder/outfielder Martin Prado. Atlanta’s offensive production was terrible during the final month, especially in the final week of the regular season.  http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/feed/2011-10/hot-stove-league/story/hot-stove-report-atlanta-braves#ixzz1dpchVa6W

Hot Stove: - C.J. Wilson, Braves, Juan Rivera, Yoennis Cespedes, Ryan Madson

 C.J. Wilson: Now that CC Sabathia has re-upped with the Yankees, Wilson is the consensus top starter on the open market. Which means he's about to make a boatload of money. The question is whether he's actually worth it. The upside: Wilson was the No. 1 starter on a team that just came within a strike of winning the World Series, he's a rare power left-hander who struck out 206 batters in 223 1/3 innings and he's still relatively young (he turns 31 this month). The downside: Wilson has only been a starter for two seasons, he's issued the second-most walks in the AL over those two seasons and he was decidedly unimpressive during the postseason. Is all that worth perhaps nine figures? The Nationals have to make that decision. http://www.csnwashington.com/blog/nationals-talk/post/Whom-might-Nats-pursue-in-free-agency?blockID=587468&feedID=6358

The Braves have to commit, this winter, to adding a leftfielder who can bat in the top half of the order, to go with midseason pickup Michael Bourn and holdovers Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward as the core of a championship-caliber lineup. They can do that by trade or by free agency, but it means the team's owners, Liberty Media, has to be willing to spend money. The best corner outfielders available on the market are Jason Kubel, Carlos Beltran and Michael Cuddyer. Beltran, who the Braves were in on at the trade deadline, would be an excellent fit, but likely to require a three-year commitment at upwards of $10 million per season. If they would prefer, the Braves could put some of that pitching depth -- the names above, plus Mike Minor or Brandon Beachy -- on the trade wire. That could make players like B.J. Upton, Nick Swisher, Logan Morrison or Andre Ethier available -- three of whom are free agents after 2012. The goal, however pursued, is clear: Bolster the top of the lineup so that a third straight season of strong pitching isn't wasted http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/joe_sheehan/11/02/nl.east.hot.stove.preview/index.html#ixzz1cxsH1G1n

Signed free agent LF-R Juan Rivera. [11/3] What baffles me about this move isn’t that the Dodgers re-signed Juan Rivera, but that the Dodgers re-signed Juan Rivera for $4.5 million (technically $4 million with a $500,000 buyout of his 2013 team option, which brings the total to $4.5 million in guaranteed cash). Granted, the Dodgers found out last season what can happen when you have a hole in left field, and they have every reason to want to avoid reliving that PTSD-inducing experience. During the first half of 2010, the Dodgers tried to fill their left field void with a motley crew composed of Tony Gwynn, Jr., Marcus Thames, Xavier Paul, Jamie Hoffmann, Jerry Sands, Jay Gibbons, Trent Oeltjen, and—Scully save us—Eugenio Velez, who went 0-for-37 on the year. That group combined for a .232 TAv through July 10th, which ranked 26th in the majors. The team was 41-51 and 11 games behind the division-leading Giants by then, but in light of their acute need, it didn’t come as a complete shock that they reached for Rivera. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15470

According to Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, the Yankees, Phillies, Marlins, Blue Jays, Giants, Nationals, Indians, A's and Pirates have all expressed interest in 26-year-old Cuban outfielder Yoennis Cespedes. We had already caught wind of the Yanks', Phils', Marlins' and Nats' interest in Cespedes, who defected from Cuba over the summer, but the other teams are new. Cespedes boasts an impressive combination of well-developed power and speed that could lead to him becoming a productive major league regular soon after a contract agreement. The Marlins are currently considered the favorite to land him and are even sending owner Jeffrey Loria to the Dominican Republic on Thursday for a meet-and-greet. Bidding will begin later this month.

Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports that the Phillies are making a "strong push" to re-sign Ryan Madson. Madson's agent Scott Boras said Saturday that his client is already drawing "a lot of interest." Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. has refused to comment on negotiations, but they are expected to do their best to re-sign him. The 31-year-old right-hander posted a 2.37 ERA and 62/16 K/BB ratio over 60 2/3 innings this season. He also went 32-for-34 in save opportunities. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/344999/baseball-headlines?r=1

The Young, The Fat and The Lefty

Like the Good, the Bad and the Ugly the pitchers of note in this upcoming offseason. I read a nice piece this morning on the merits of signing C.J. Wilson but I can't be sure I agree with it. Lets just evaluate the options before we jump head-long into that fray.

The Young:

Yu Darvish
Born: August 16, 1986
Height: 196cm
Weight: 98kg
Throws: Right
Bats: Right

Year	G	W	L	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2005	14	5	5	97	7	48	52	3.53
2006	25	12	5	128	12	64	115	2.89
2007	26	15	5	123	9	49	210	1.82
2008	25	16	4	136	11	44	208	1.88
2009	23	15	5	118	9	45	167	1.73
2010	26	12	8	158	5	47	222	1.78
2011	23	16	5	128	4	30	223	1.47

Yu has been good in Japan from the first year he pitched but he's also gotten better. Starting 2012 as a 25 year old, he's likely the second best overall talent available in free agency. However he COULD be the most expensive.

We all remember Matsuzaka and the insane price Boston paid for negotiating rights to him. The Wilpons could be looking at a posting fee in the same $50 Million range (though I think the climate of spending has changed) and that is a VERY un-Wilpon thing to do.

The Fat:

Carsten Charles Sabathia
Born: July 21, 1980
Height: 6' 7''
Weight: 290
Bats: Left

Throws: Left

Year	G	W	L	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2005	31	15	10	185	19	62	161	4.03
2006	28	12	11	182	17	44	172	3.22
2007	34	19	7	238	20	37	209	3.21
2008	35	17	10	223	19	59	251	2.70
2009	34	19	8	197	18	67	197	3.37
2010	34	21	7	209	20	74	197	3.18
2011	31	19	8	213	15	55	216	2.93

Sabathia is likely to opt out of his enormous contract with the Yankees to sign an even more enormous contract with... well... probably the Yankees. He's already making around (or over) $23 Million per year and his new contract is likely to be higher or (at the very least) longer.

But...

Wouldn't it be nice to steal talent from those cross-town rivals? Sabathia is the only TRULY proven Ace in the free agent market (Carpenter WAS and Ace... now he's just Old). If the Wilpons HAD to shell out big money, wouldn't it make sense to do it for proven talent?

The Lefty:

Christopher John Wilson
Born: November 18, 1980
Height: 6' 1''
Weight: 210
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
College: Loyola Marymount

Year	G	W	L	H	HR	BB	SO	ERA
2010	33	15	8	161	10	93	170	3.35
2011	31	16	6	178	15	67	190	3.01

Wilson has only been a starter for a few seasons but he's been a roaring success. Add that he's in the AL... in a hitter's park... and he's JUST north of 30 and he seems like a pretty good option.

Of the legitimate free agents, he's probably the guy most clubs will be targeting. Sure... Sabathia is more proven and Darvish is younger with a higher ceiling... but Wilson is attainable. Well... if he wasn't that "attainable" guy for EVERYONE.

Here's My Point:
The Mets NEED to improve pitching and cannot rely on every prospect turning into the next Nolan Ryan or Doc Gooden. Instead we need to use free agency to protect us in case we actually wind up with Paul Wilsons and Bill Pulsiphers. If I'm running the team I... still can't bid on Sabathia he'll REALLY just cost too much. HOWEVER before I go hog-wild for Wilson I'm trying to win posting rights on Darvish. Lefty or not... Darvish is the best pitching value available in the next offseason.

Given the choice, who would you try for first?

Spending Other People's Money

How Much Money Do The Mets Have?

If you trust the Wilpons... none. The Wilpons claim to be losers in the Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme and... frankly... I think they probably were (overall). Do I think that they'll get off paying NOTHING? No, they'll need to pay. Picard had to have some sort of evidence to try the suit in the first place. They won't be giving back $1 Billion, the won't be giving back $300 Million, they'll be giving back something, but I'm pretty sure David Einhorn's money will cover it.

So the Mets have? Listen, it's not like I have access to their books. It seems to me that the Mets should be able to field a team at or above $120 Million simply based on geographic location AND having their own network. That isn't so far above what I would call the poverty line for major market teams ($100 Million). The Wilpons and Alderson know that they cannot field a team below that point without risking severely negative fan response.

Why They WON'T Spend Money: Beyond Jose Reyes, there aren't a lot of players the Mets could uses. They aren't going into the Pujols derby, (as much as I'd like them to) they aren't going to pay the posting fee for Darvish, they aren't going to over-pay for Wilson, so... who are they planning to spend the money on?

Why They WOULD Spend Money: How do you energize a fan-base who are frustrated and disillusioned? You sign someone who would (just by putting on a uniform) bring fans to the ballpark. Jose Reyes is one of those guys but it's not the same when you're bringing him BACK. There are only two other "Wow Factor" players hitting free agency: Albert Pujols (32) and Prince Fielder (28). The issue, as we all know, is that there is nowhere to play them. So... unless you sign Albert and trade Ike Davis that doesn't make sense. Think you can make a splash that would get the fans excited? I would love to see another solution to get the fans excited. If they can't get someone really good, I don't think Alderson wastes time and money with too many people in between.

Impact Free Agents:
Albert Pujols (32)
Jose Reyes (29)
Prince Fielder (28)
Brandon Phillips (31) [If his $12 Mil option is declined]
Yu Darvish (25)
C.J. Wilson (31)
Carlos Beltran (35)
Grady Sizemore (29) [If his $8.5 Mil option is declined]
Lance Berkman (36)
Heath Bell (34)
Jonathan Papelbon (31)
Francisco Rodriguez (32)