Kodai Senga has been with the Mets since his highly publicized signing in December, 2022. In that time, he has been hero, ace, goat, and disappointment. His health and his stamina have played a big role in the transitions from bad to good and good to bad.
There is no dismissing a 12-7 record with a 2.98 ERA in 29 starts that he had in 2023 in his first year as a Met – he proved that he could pitch at a very high level in MLB. He also pitched to a winning record (7-6) with a 3.02 ERA in 2025 even though he missed four weeks to a hamstring injury.
The problem with Senga has not been his healthy and confident days with the club – it has been the alter ego with nagging injuries and issues with control like the 0-9 season with a 7.34 ERA that he had last year that causes most fans to dismiss him.
Many great pitchers have had throw-away seasons, only to renew their prowess with some mechanical changes or changes to their approach to hitters. The big question is, will Senga be one of those, or has he hit that final wall at 33 years of age?
The New York Mets owe Senga $25M next season – that much is guaranteed by contract and they will pay him with or without his services. But if his poor performance in 2026 is unrecoverable, the question is whether the Mets should keep him on the roster or release him and eat the money?
The positive side would take hope from his success as a closer during Devin Williams’ absence in September. Kodai recorded 8 saves in 9 opportunities with much improved pitching stats when he was only throwing an inning. The positive side would also point to his healthy ERAs in every season other than 2026.
The negative side would dismiss him as a pitcher without the stamina to close day after day or to return to the starting rotation as he desires. The negative side would see him as a blocker to the talents like Jonathan Santucci or Dylan Ross that are preparing to make the jump to a major league role.
One could take a “wait and see” approach to see how spring training pans out, but we all know that spring training performance does not accurately predict a player’s regular season success.
In my opinion, the decision needs to be made during the off-season. The Mets have seen everything they are going to see. They know the inside story on his health issues and his above-average need for extra rest. They have seen the metrics on his velocity and ball movement and how he responds to the new wave of coaching by analytics.
They have also seen how quickly his body can recover from all the annoying aches and pains that occur during a professional baseball season. I believe that they have everything they need to project whether he will be a major benefit to the team next season.
If they believe he will be healthy and productive, he will be on the 40-man roster before the first day of spring training and if he is on that roster he will be on the active roster on the first day of the 2027 regular season barring a new major injury.
If he is on the active roster to start 2027, will he be the closer? I don’t believe so – the Mets need a horse for a closer who can overpower an opponent in the ninth inning of three consecutive games. By the way, Devin Williams is not that either. They need to shop.
Back to Senga – do you believe that he will be there when the season opens, or will he be gone early in the off-season to leave room on the 40 to protect some of the rule 5 eligible talent in our system?
