The Mets picked Holt in the supplemental portion of the 1st round in the 2008 draft. College stats: 3.18 ERA, 11-1, 93.1 IP, 78 H, 36 BB, 95 K, .225 BAA, 8 HR allowed
Comments by Baseball America before draft day: With an impressive performance, Holt could vault himself into position to be a back of the first-round or early supplemental selection. A team such as the Mets with multiple picks in the first 50 could be especially interested in a guy like Holt. Mets scouting director Rudy Terrasas is known for liking pitchers with pure arm strength such as Holt, and with picks at 18, 22 and 33, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mets take the Seahawks righthander. This weekend will not be the first time that Terrasas and his staff have seen Holt—as the scouting director, along with multiple other members of his staff, was in attendance to witness Holt pitch eight innings against Old Dominion. Holt struck out 11 and only allowed one earned run in the outing. The Brewers are another team with three selections in the first 35 picks that could be especially interested in Holt.
Also from Baseball America: His fastball has improved since arriving in Wilmington and now sits between 92-94 mph, touching 96… He is able to maintain his velocity deep into games. [He has] vastly improved command. Holt at 6-foot-4, 195 pounds, has a perfect pro body with a clean delivery and a first-round arm… The only thing holding him back is the lack of a usable secondary pitch…. Even though his secondary stuff is in need of refinement, teams will not walk away from the pro body, strong arm and life on the fastball.
From Keith Law: Ultimate Role: Setup man Summary: Holt shows consistent arm strength and holds it through his starts as well as any starter in this draft, sitting 93-96 mph every week from his first inning to his last. The velocity is easy; the ball comes out of his arm well and has good downhill plane and some life to it. He pitches almost exclusively off his fastball, throwing off speed stuff less than 25 percent of the time. His curveball, which has a short downward break and moderately tight rotation, is his best secondary pitch; it could become an average offering, but it's a one-plane pitch. He has a changeup, but he guides this mediocre offering to the plate. He takes a long stride forward off the mound, holding his velocity even from the stretch when he doesn't stay over the rubber at all, and has just a little bit of violence at the end when his head snaps slightly. If he had a better changeup or could handle a splitter -- his arm slot might be too low for it -- he'd have a chance to be a back-end starter. But as a one-and-a-half-pitch pitcher, he's more likely to work in the bullpen when he reaches the majors.
Holt pitched the day before the draft… threw 149 pitches and was clocked at 94 in the 9th inning.
In June 2008, BA did a post-draft adjustment of their top 10 Mets prospects and Holt was ranked #8, with the comments: “8. Brad Holt, rhp - 2008 supplemental first-rounder can touch 96 mph, needs a reliable second pitch.”
In July 2008, From The Hardball Times: Brad Holt – RHP - Holt does a really good job loading his arm horizontally toward first base. By loading his arm this way, Holt is "scap loading." I've talked about scap loading before, but if you haven't heard the term, here is a semi-detailed definition: Scap loading is the horizontal loading of the arm. By loading the arm horizontally, the pitcher almost seems as if he is trying to touch his throwing elbow to the mid-point of his back. By carrying out this action, the pitcher creates tension in all the elastic muscles and tendons of the shoulder, and if done efficiently, the shoulder unloads aggressively toward home plate due to these elastic muscles being stretched and then released like a rubber band you let go after stretching.
The end product is a high-velocity fastball, which is exactly what Holt possesses. Holt's fastball is very lively, reaching up to 95, and it gets on the batter quick. It seems to pick up an extra gear just before it reaches home plate. My opinion is that he even has some velocity left in the tank, which could be tapped either through mechanics (like getting his hips moving a little earlier toward home plate) or by filling out his projectable frame.
In 2008, Holt was spot on for Brooklyn, going 5-3, 1.87 in 14 starts. He also struck out 96 batters in 72.1 IP. Holt won the Sterling Award as the the top Met player for the 2008 Brooklyn team.
September 2008: Brooklyn pitching coach Hector Berrios on: Brad Holt: “Holt has a power arm. He hit 100 miles per hour on the radar gun in Aberdeen and it was the first time I saw it live. That was impressive. We had a report on him that he threw 147 fastballs out of 152 pitches in a start in college. In the beginning, he told me, ‘I don’t even know what I throw.’ I told him, just throw whatever you have and we’ll take it from there. It turns out he has a power curve, 79-81 miles per hour with a big break. He also started to incorporate his change up. He’s very athletic and he’s constantly learning. He’s got a world of talent and with that type of power, especially considering how far he’s come with his secondary pitches in such a short amount of time, the sky is the limit. I think in two or three years, he’ll be a guy on the front end of the Mets rotation.”
In September, Patrick Hickey wrote on: Brad Holt- His secondary pitches came such a long way during the season and he proved he’s much more than a fastball pitcher. His curve ball has the potential to be a devastating pitch as well and his changeup needs some work, but is progressing steadily. As far as his potential goes, I see him as someone who could round out the last two spots of a starting rotation or be an excellent setup man or reliever, kind of like an old New York favorite, Dave Righetti. His fun-loving, yet professional attitude with the media and in the clubhouse could also make him a fan-favorite in a jiffy once he gets to Brooklyn. Final grade- A+
In February 2009, MYOB write: Brad Holt RHP - Brad signed for a little over $1 million and is a supplemental first rounder for the Braves signing Tom Glavine. He throws in the mid-90s and has good command of his fastball. Brad led the NY Penn league in ERA at 1.87 in 14 starts, striking out 96 hitters in just over 72 innings pitched. He only gave up 43 hits, translating to an opponent average of .171. All this success without a secondary pitch. If he is going to have success as he advances Brad will need to find a second and third offering, otherwise he can replace K-Rod as the closer. He’s working on a slider and change.
In February 2009, Toby Hyde wrote: Holt has both the highest ceiling, and the best downside projection among Mets pitching prospects. He has the best fastball in the system with a great pitcher’s build and clean, easy mechanics. In college, he moved from the third-base side of the rubber to the first, which allowed him to land more online to home plate, rather than closed and snap his hips through the pitch more effectively. The result of the change by 2008, was a legitimate mid-90s fastball that he threw 93-95 mph that exploded on hitters out of Holt’s hand. Moreover, the plus, or perhaps plus-plus heater played up thanks to fine command. A detractor might complain about Holt that he has only one plus pitch. That detractor’s criticism would be entirely justified. On the other hand, Holt has made terrific progress with his breaking ball, tightening up a slurvy offering from college into a tight, hard curveball, that at times, flashes plus potential. A scout who had seen him as an amateur, and then repeatedly in the New York Penn League, was left shaking his head, noting that every time he saw Holt as a professional, he made strides with his breaking ball. Holt rarely threw his below average changeup in the NYP League. He did not need it against less advanced hitters, although he has expressed a desire to improve the pitch. Holt’s progress with his breaking stuff will dictate whether he becomes a frontline starter. Even if he struggles with his changeup, his fastball will take him to some kind of big league bullpen role, where he could excel. 2008: Holt had a monster debut in Brooklyn, easily outshining the two gentlemen, Ike Davis and Reese Havens, the Mets picked ahead of him in the 2008 draft. Holt led the circuit in ERA and strikeouts while landing second in WHIP (1.05) behind teammate Chris Schwinden. Holt reached double figures in strikeouts four times, including a 14 punch-out performance on July 24th, that tied a Cyclones single-game record. Holt worked deep into games, throwing five innings or more in five of his last six contests. Projected 2009 Start: St. Lucie rotation
In March 2009, Rotoworld ranked the Mets Top 10 Prospect: Holt, the 33rd overall selection in the 2008 draft, overmatched New York-Penn League hitters in his debut. Of course, that's exactly what should have happened. The UNC Wilimington product throws in the mid-90s with regularity. The rest of his arsenal, though, needs serious work. He's inconsistent with a slurvy slider and incapable of fooling hitters with his changeup. The Mets will work with him to refine his secondary pitches this year. If he doesn't make as much progress as hoped, he could find himself on the verge of a switch to the pen at this time next year.
9-9-9 From http://www.hardballtimes.com/ : - Taken in the first supplemental round in the 2008 draft, Holt, a 6'4 righty out of UNC-Wilimgton, quickly impressed in his pro debut. After posting a 2.62 FIP for Brooklyn last year, Holt struck out 54 batters in 43.1 innings for St.Lucie in 2009 before being called up to Binghamton. However, his run of great pitching ended there. He only struck out 45 in 58 innings and walked 23 while giving up nine homers, leading to a 5.01 FIP. Holt is a power pitcher who has to rely on his plus fastball, so when he's not striking out guys at a good enough rate it could lead to problems. However, he was hampered by an ankle injury, so we'll see if he can bounce back in Binghamton in 2010.
5-30-10 from: - http://myworldofbaseball.com/wordpress/?cat=42 - Brad Holt RHP - A supplemental pick for the loss of Tom Glavine, Brad signed for a little over $1 million. Brad reminds me more of a closer type than a starting pitcher, but all his appearances have been starts. He has three decent pitches, with a decent fastball that hits 95, though is more comfortable between 88-92. He has a good, durable frame at 6′4″ that allow him to be an innings eater in the middle of a rotation. Brad struggled a bit last year when promoted to Binghamton, finishing with an ERA of 6.21 in 11 starts. He was a bit too prone to the walk and the homerun ball, a deadly combination for 3-run homers. This year he is back at Binghimton and his ERA is even worse at 9.90 in seven starts. Walks continue to be a problem, but this time he is being hit at a .357 clip, 80 points higher than he was hit last year. The Mets can only hope that he is starting to turn his season around after his last start. He went 5 innings for the first time this season and gave up only one hit, walking three without giving up a run.
5-29-10: - Brad Holt got one more shot at starting last night and he past the test. I remember talking to Rick Waits out on the back mounds about Holt in the spring of 2009 and he told me that the emphasis last year would be on creating secondary pitches for Holt. I left that day thinking his ERA would be up for 2009 (which it was) simply because you’re going to have to throw these new pitches during game time condiditons. Well, it hasn’t worked, and now Holt’s velocity on his fastball is in question. Listen, if you’re a one pitch pitcher, it better be a fastball… and if it’s a fastball, you’re a bullpen pitcher… and if you’re a one pitch fastball pitcher with lost velocity… well, you’re playing in the Central Park League.
9-15-09 from: - http://myworldofbaseball.com/wordpress/?cat=42 - 4. Brad Holt RHP - Brad was the Mets first round supplemental pick in 2007. After a dominating performance for the Cyclones in 2008 Brad continued his success with the St Lucie Mets, finishing at 4-1, 3.12 in nine starts. It wasn’t the 1.87 ERA that he had with the Cyclones but it earned him a promotion to AA Binghamton. There he found pitching a little more of a challenge, finishing with a 6.21 ERA in eleven starts. Opponents batting average against him have gone from .171 to .215 to .270. He needs to find a way to reverse that. Expect him to repeat AA. He does control a high velocity fastball, but his secondary pitches need a lot of improvement.
6-23-10: - Well, sending him back to St. Lucie doesn’t seem to be the answer to Holt’s woes. He pitched last night, giving up five runs, four earners, in 4.0-IP. That’s a 9.00 ERA, still up in the range of his 10.20 in Binghamton. Only two strikeouts and eight hits against him; yes, eight hits in four innings. Boy, if there was ever a pitcher that needs to be shut down…
6-30-10 from: - Holt had a rare good outing Tuesday night, though it was at the A+ level, at least one level below where he should be dominating at this stage in his professional career. Stats were: 5.0-IP, 1-ER, 2-H, 1-WP, 5-K, and still 5-BB. This is the best he’s been all year long and the last thing we should be applauding is five walks and one wild pitch in five innings, but in his case, we’ll take what we can right now. Holt’s A+ record now is 1-1, 5.00… combined A+/AA: 2-6, 9.00. Far from prospect material.
7-9 from http://www.baseballamerica.com/ : - Biggest Disappointment: "Brad Holt, no question," one club official said. Though no one seems quite sure how it happened. "His fastball is still there. The velocity is good. He just lost something. His command hasn't been there, and he doesn't seem to know how to get it back."
7-14 from: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/7/14/1567569/mets-farm-system-mid-term-review - If you were wondering who has been the biggest disappointment of 2010 in the Mets farm system, you're looking at him. Exhibit A: Twelve combined walks in his last three starts. Holt's season has been an unmitigated disaster. Exhibit B: .336 BAA in Binghamton. And frankly, I wish there was more I could say about it but so far there isn't. He hasn't attributed his inconsistent velocity or his suddenly scattershot command to any sort of lingering ailments from his checkered injury history. Even on days when his velocity is back up near where it should be he's not looking like the guy who set the Cyclones single season strikeout record back in '08. The really scary part is that the fallback bullpen option which seemed so failsafe before is now suddenly just as questionable, as his one plus pitch is suddenly lacking any of the electricity it once had. In short, Holt seems to have gone all John Maine and lost the one skill that truly made him a top pitching prospect and without it, he's little more than Eddie Kunz. Every fifth day I keep hoping to hear that he corrected a minor mechanical flaw and is back to normal but if that doesn't happen soon, a move to the bullpen is imminent.
7-17-10: - look, it’s not every day that you get a chance to write something good about a Brad Holt outing. The young man did good last night, going: 5.0-IP. 1-ER, 7-K, 3-BB… forget the yearly stats; we’ll take one good outing and take it from there. BTW… the word from the Mets pitching coaches is there really isn’t anything wrong with the kid’s velocity, or mechanics. He simply is pitching like shit this year. Regarding last night, we’ll take it.
7-28 from: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/7/28/1592006/mets-farm-q-a-with-baseball - Holt wasn't good in Double-A last year, perhaps because he hurt his ankle after his first start, but that can't be the reason he has been awful for most of this year, necessitating a demotion to Double-A. He has one of the better arms in the system, but he's more thrower than pitcher and still needs to learn there's more about pitching than velocity. I wonder if he's going to be more than a reliever in the long run
8-4-10: - Holt got off to a decent start last night, but, in the end, this was just another bad outing in a series of many this season. 4.2-IP, 5-R, 4-ER, 2-BB, 2-HBP. He’s started 10 games for the B-Mets (1-5, 10.20) and now he’s 2-5, 5.85 for St. Lucie… add to that a 6.21 ERA last year for Binghamton, and one must now question whey he remains in the rotation. Everyone around him says that Holt’s velocity remains high, but this is a one pitch pitcher that tends to be dominate in the first two inning pitched. They call this… a reliever.
8-5-10: - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/8/5/1606179/2010-top-20-new-york-mets - Brad Holt, RHP, Grade C+: Got annihilated in Double-A, and not much better after going back to St. Lucie. 7.71 ERA with 60/49 K/BB in 70 innings, 84 hits. Secondary pitches have regressed, command is fouled up too.
8-21-10: - Stock Down: - SP Brad Holt pitched again Friday night for St. Lucie and didn’t fair well: 5.1-IP, 5-H, 3-ER, 6-K, 5-BB, 3-WP. Holt’s A+ stats this year are 2-7, 6.26, 1.79. These look great compared to his AA stats ( 1-5, 10.20). It’s late in the season and there shouldn’t be much movement in players anymore, so it’s safe to assume that Holt will finish this season as a rotational pitcher for Lucy. The ex-suppliment 1st rounderhas been around long enough now to have developed something other nthan his fastball, which is obviously being sat on. The three wild pitches are simply embarrassing at this point. Mets minor league pitching coach guru has said numerous times that there is nothing mechanically wrong with Holt’s delivery, so one tends to start realizing that this looks to be another wasted high round pick. I’m sure the Mets will move him to the pen next year, especially since he’s not ready for AA, and there are plenty of more successful starters in
Savannah and Brooklyn that deserve their shot. Shame. I thought this was a live one.
http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/11/1/1775558/season-in-review-st-lucie-mets - STOCK DOWN - Obviously Holt was a disaster in 2010. And there were warning signs during the second half of '09 that many (myself included) downplayed and hoped would disappear. Well, they didn't and now we're left with a complete question mark where our top pitching prospect used to be. Specifically, the problem in 2010 was the complete lack of any command, even with the fb. The scary thing is, looking back to his first try in St. Lucie in '09, back when he was at the height of his prospect stardom, that was actually his only stint where he'd posted a K/9 below 3 at any level, including college. So we're left wondering if the good Holt that we saw was only the exception and the bad Holt we saw this year is more the rule. Now if there's a bright side, it's that he'd also never exhibited control problems even close to this degree. This year his BB/9 baseline of about 3.5 jumped up to 7+. The big question is, do you see this as a bump in the road or the beginning of the end? For me, I'm willing to revise my original projection of a top-of-the-rotation starter but I also am still not ready to say he's middle relief fodder at best. Reports maintain he's still hitting the mid-90's consistently and his secondary stuff is still improving. Now even if (like many) you don't buy into his breaking stuff, when he's spotting his fb he obviously misses bats (he's also never posted a K/9 below 8 at any level). So in that case I'm still seeing a late inning, high velocity relief prospect which isn't an insignificant role. Of course, that's all if he can reharness that command which granted is a big if but returns from the AFL so far have been good.
11-25-10 from: - http://myworldofbaseball.com/wordpress/2010/11 - 6. Brad Holt RHP - Holt is another hard thrower whose future may be in the bullpen as a closer. His fastball touches 95 but the quality of his secondary pitches may still need some work. If they don’t develop the Mets could put him in the closer role. He had an awful 2010 season, struggling to find the strike zone. His 8.34 ERA between A and AA with 79 walks in just 95 innings was horrendous. He also gave up 111 hits. The Mets felt he needed more work and assigned him to the AFL. He was like a different pitcher, going 2-1, 2.92. He still needs to work on improving his command as he still walked nine hitters in only 12 plus innings of work. In 2009 he had a 6.12 ERA at AA and asked to repeat AA he crashed to a 10.20 ERA. Even with a demotion to the pitcher friendly Florida State League his ERA was at a forgettable 7.48. He needs to find some success at AA before he advances.
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