I have two quick questions after a comment - you didn't have to refund my subscription to MackOnBaseBall - I did read all of the premium content after all - but my questions are these - do you think that the new regime is going to push the older prospects (Cory Vaughn, et al.) to higher levels midseason but leave the younger prospects to complete a full year at each level to give them a chance to not just do well but dominate (Jefry Marte, Wilmer Flores, A-Rod, etc.)? And with all the good pitching in the system so far this year does that mean that the new regime can focus a little more on high ceiling, long term development athletes and not just signing international teenagers?
Mack:
Hey Kevin. No, the refund was the right thing to do.
The first indication of what the “new regime” will do will come with the placement of players after the draft.
Right now, every minor leaguer is at a level based on where Omar & Co. started them out. For reasons I chose not to comment on, Latin kids as young as 16 started as high as A-ball, while 23-year old college seniors were started in rookie ball. Some players, like Josh Satin, never stood a chance. They were old from the get-go.
Interesting is the two best international signees, Vincente Lupo and Elvis Sanchez, are both on one of the DSL Mets rosters. Their season started today. Omar would have had them in Buffalo by now (sic).
No 16-year old should be playing professional baseball. All you get is a bunch of Francesco Pena’s that stat horribly because they aren’t ready to play at that level.
Let’s compare two guys.
Juan Lagarus is playing his 6th season as a Met. He’s already been through the Rule V and has played both the infield and now, the outfield. Lagarus has been considered a bust for a number of years, but returned to Savannah last season for the fourth year. That’s right, the fourth year. He hit .300. This year, he’s playing for St. Lucie and hitting .311 as I write this. But, as said before, it’s his 6th year in the Mets organization.
Josh Satin was drafted out college by the Mets in 2008. He has hit well at every level he has played at, including this year at AA-Binghamton (.306). It’s only his fourth year in the Mets organization, and he’s playing a level ahead of Lagarus.
Now, here’s the rub. Satin is 26 years old. Lagarus is 22.
If Lagarus was born in America and went to the same college Satin did, he would just be completing his junior year and would be waiting to hear his name on June 6th at the draft.
You tell me if this system is in balance.
In the case of Cory Vaughn, he’s blocked by three good outfielders, Matt den Dekker, Cesar Puello, and Pedro Zapata, that all deserve to finish out the pennant race in St. Lucie. At least one will move on in June and Cory will be promoted.
Players should only be promoted if they prove they are no longer challenged at a certain level; however, injuries and movement above them create situations that must be addressed.
Regarding long term development, I hope so.
We’ve learned year after year that you can’t project pitching at the A-level or below. Savannah seems to punch out five great starters every year, don’t they? The problem is most of these kids are still throwing (rather than pitching) to other kids with no plate discipline.
I’ve always been a big fan of college junior starters. The high school kids always scare me (Nathan Vineyard).
I have no idea what they are going to do, but I have more confidence on these guys than the suits in the past.
One thing I would do is align my top prospects at the proper level for the remainder of the 2011 season.
SP wise, I’d have Familia and Harvey at AA, and Greg Peavey and the #1 pick next week in A+. Juan Urbina should be in Brooklyn.
Field wise, I’d have Havens at 2B in Binghamton (due to past injury), Vaughn in St. Lucie and den Dekker at AA. I would probably leave Flores, Marte, and A-Rod, but make plans to play them all in the outfield in winter ball.
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