Every
MLB expert believes the Mets have one of the best Rotations in baseball. Most
agree they could be one of the top 3 pitching staffs and several believe that
if they pitch to their potential it could be the best starting five ever.
IF Healthy
This
is the elephant in the room for the team in queens. All of the young aces are
just as likely to win the CY Young as they are to end the season on the
disabled list. From Syndergaard’s bone spur,
Harvey’s Tommy John and thoracic outlet syndrome, deGrom’s
ulnar nerve surgery, Matz’s bone
spur and Wheeler’s Tommy John, they all
have the asterisk of “if they can stay healthy”, they could accomplish
greatness. The talent has never been debatable.
Therefore it is the objective of the front office to
develop a plan that can possibly help these young thoroughbreds remain on the
field. I believe the days of the 220 Innings, 30 plus starts starters are over (as
hard as this is to admit). In 2016, only 16 pitchers reached 200 innings. That is
1 pitcher per half the teams.
So I propose an out of the box thought… Say we list the
starter 1-5 as Syndergaard, Harvey, deGrom, Matz and Wheeler (order doesn’t
matter in this example). Here goes…
A starter pitches every 5 day or in essence receives 4 days
off between starts. I propose that once a year you give ever starter 10 days
off, around the 60th. In this plan you need a 6th pitcher to step up for about
5 starts. Fortunately for the metropolitans, this works out perfectly since we
have a Gsellman ready to take the ball. It has become
universally accepted that every team uses between 7-10 starters a year. I
believe this happens because there is not enough recovery time for these
athletes.
So how would this look like for the Mets…
Round 1
|
Round 2
|
Round 3
|
Round 4
|
Round 5
|
Round 6
|
Round 7
|
Syndergaard
|
Gsellman
|
Gsellman
|
Gsellman
|
Gsellman
|
Gsellman
|
Syndergaard
|
Harvey
|
Harvey
|
Syndergaard
|
Syndergaard
|
Syndergaard
|
Syndergaard
|
Harvey
|
deGrom
|
deGrom
|
deGrom
|
Harvey
|
Harvey
|
Harvey
|
deGrom
|
Matz
|
Matz
|
Matz
|
Matz
|
deGrom
|
deGrom
|
Matz
|
Wheeler
|
Wheeler
|
Wheeler
|
Wheeler
|
Wheeler
|
Matz
|
Wheeler
|
rest
|
Syndergaard
|
Harvey
|
deGrom
|
Matz
|
Wheeler
|
As you can see in this chart, beginning with rounds 2,3,4,5
and 6, you begin to swap out a starter giving each pitcher 10 days to recover
and recharge.
I do not believe a 6 man rotation is the way to go.
Pitchers are accustomed to pitching every 5 days, but there is a wear and tear
of a long 162 game season that takes a toll on a pitcher. I think with the new MLB collective
bargaining agreement having a 10 game disables list, this plan or a version of
it can be implemented. I also believe this plan suits the current Mets roster
perfectly.
I admit I am no doctor, but I did stay at a Holiday
Inn once…
16 comments:
Hi Eddie - nice post.
My thought is it still looks like a 6 man rotation, but it is not, if a guy gets skipped a complete start.
I tend to think Wheeler (unless someone gets hurt) will pitch out of the pen until Familia returns from his very likely suspension. Gsellman starts a bunch in April, as the 5th starter - maybe 4-5 starts. Then your idea might well make sense, if all 6 are healthy and pitching effectively. Lower innings = fresher World Series pitchers.
I am not sure if d'Arnaud has caught all 5 starters already, but I read something where it seemed to indicate he had and that all are looking great. That's Step One.
Eddie -
Morning.
I agree with Tom on the quality of your post and the creativity of your thinking. The Mets are going to have to carefully manage the amount of pitches thrown by all their mash returning starters, especially Wheeler.
I also expect Gsellman to become an iron horse in April, possibly pitching every five days while others do not.
Thanks Mack
I am starting to believe in Gsellman more and more especially reading more about him... Keith Law wrote interesting things about him and mentioned that even He was shocked at what he was seeing and perhaps missed something... Later mentioned that his Mets contacts even mentioned that he was throwing harder in the Majors... The only person they could compare him to as a surprise was Degrom... That's a bold comparison... But if similar in any way then look out... This staff could take an explosive rise...
While you can never have enough pitching Sandy will need to be super strategic can sell High on one of these starter and grab the missing pieces we still need ( a 3b / CF / C of the future) ...
Kudos Mr. Corona!
My question is, assuming 27 starts (6G rotation) is more career-beneficial than 32 start seasons for a healthy pitcher (no stints on DL), the question comes down to what is the less taxing cycle?
Is a consistent 5 day recoup/rest/repair routine after a 100-pitch effort more or less beneficial five 4-day rest cycles and then a 10-day vacation? I think psychologically Eddie C's 5x4-10 has some merit, physically I have no idea.
Thanks Hobie... I though of this because of a number of reasons...
1. Every time a pitcher is asked about a true 6 man rotation or an extra day off they all say they prefer a 5 man (4 days off) schedule...
2. I thought of what I would prefer if I was a pitcher (or even a player for that matter) the season is a grind... and even in our own day to day we need time for a recharge... Some trainers believe you can over train so you need to have your body to heal to perform the best... a scheduled 10 to recharge could work wonders...
3. the Mets staff could pull this off... This may not worked if you didnt have a Gsellman or a Lugo ready to do so... Even last year may not have allowed this as Degrom, harvey and matz all went down... (I dont know if my plan was in place that could have been avoided)
4. In Asia they have their starters Pitch to a higher pitch count but they have longer rest... I do not know if MLB has gone there to do analytics to see how this may affect performance...
Eddie -
I did an old interview with Gsellman when he came to Savannah. I'll try and find it and report it.
I love this idea except the one problem: what do you do with the starter who is sitting? you cant send them down or DL them, which effectively means you are playing one man short on the 25 man roster. this certainly works if the team has a big lead come september when rosters expand, but not so much in july?
I suppose you could pitch them out of the bullpen, but thats not really agreat idea. in this suggestion you would basically be playing with 24 men on the roster for 6 weeks.
sorry.
Robb, Eddie C, et. al.
With the new 10-day DL, couldn't you carry an extra player (pos or BP) for your "vacation" guy?
Robb your point is valid... But there could be the mystery hamstring injury... I do not know the specifics of the DL rules but the New 10 day DL stints does fall in Line to how I thought of this...
I would send them to Florida to rest, and stay sharp... Arizona would work too...
Robb -
My spin is the Mets are going to break camp with 6 starters. They will not risk the arms that have just healed by making them throw every 5 games at 70-100 pitchers per game.
Hobie -
I am not sure but I believe that, if Familia is suspended in April, he will be able to be put on the DL
Interesting thoughts...the Players Association would have Eddie's head, of course, since it limits the aggregate statistics and thus the money the starters would receive.
at the end of the day i have no confidence tc could manage to work on something that requires this level of planning and complication, but ideally you start wheeler in the bullpen for the first 6 weeks and then work him into the rotation this way so he makes 15-20 starts instead of the 32 and gsellman also makes the 15 to 20 starts. Im sure they can find a ten day dl stint for harvey, matz and degrom and maybe move Noah into the bullpen for the 9 days he'd be off.
Reese... I figured they would be ok with this since the plan is meant for them to stay healthy and have time off with pay... not a bad deal...
I'd sell high once Conlon. Szapucki or Dunn are closer to being ready.
I am a big fan of getting timme off with pay.
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