Well, for Mets' fans sakes, let's certainly hope so!!
I have been here before, the lost seasons, the hopelessness, the futility, but it's usually come after the team didn't sign the big free agent (usually without an attempt), or just traded a key (or franchise) player while getting next to nothing in return. It's NEVER been like this- between injuries there just is NO way to come back from, horrible game management and the worst injury management we've ever seen (an ironic combo of the 2 prior items), this team has been heart-breaking almost from the get-go. I couldn't help but redo an old wartime quote: "never has so little been given by so few TO so many when so much was expected!" (again - all apologies to Winston Churchill!)
After having their entire thought process on roster-building ripped apart, by the media and fans alike, the D-Backs made some massive changes prior to the 2017 season. They fired their GM & manager; they re-tooled (not rebuilt) the roster, and they put young players in key positions to perform as hoped for- does any of this sound familiar? Well, outside of replacing the GM, which is NOT going to happen under the Wilponzi's, I am proposing a similar re-tool for these New York Metropolitans. But first- just look at how much of a difference a retooling made in Arizona:
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS RECORD: 2016
National League West
National League West | W | L | Pct. | GB | Home | Road |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Los Angeles Dodgers | 91 | 71 | 0.562 | — | 53–28 | 38–43 |
San Francisco Giants | 87 | 75 | 0.537 | 4 | 45–36 | 42–39 |
Colorado Rockies | 75 | 87 | 0.463 | 16 | 42–39 | 33–48 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 69 | 93 | 0.426 | 22 | 33–48 | 36–45 |
San Diego Padres | 68 | 94 | 0.420 | 23 | 39–42 | 29–52 |
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS RECORD: 2017 (as of 9/24/17)
National League West
As of Sunday, September 24th, the Diamondbacks are 6 games ahead in the Wild Card race, and of course they are not even close to catching the first place Dodgers; however, they DID recently sweep them in a 3-game series and showed that, even after being left for dead in 2016 with some changes, both major and subtle, they are right back in the race one season later. And you can BET that the LAST team the Dodgers want to face in the Play-Offs is those very same Diamondbacks!!
THAT thought begins to give me hope for our beloved Mets. There IS a lot to do, first, before we can even DREAM of returning to contention in 2018, and remaining so in 2019, and therefore here is my plan to get us there. First, however, we need to be realistic about certain things regarding this organization:
~The Mets are NOT going to come close to spending $150 million on their roster for 2018, they are NOT going to sign any big-name free agents (like Frazier or Moustakas) and Sandy Alderson is going to remain in place as the GM and defacto-President as long as he wishes to remain in the game. Those are just the facts, and no matter how much we refuse to believe it, the Mets play in the biggest market in the world and treat it as if they played in a mid-to-small market, financially. I'm not going to rehash their many remaining financial obligations nor treatise on their organizational plans, as that's been outlined here and elsewhere ad nauseam. So don't get upset when I don't mention the Mets signing Yu Darvish or Jake Arrietta (both going to sign for between $100 & $200 million elsewhere); Todd Frazier or Mike Moustakas (Mets not signing a third baseman, even a New Yorker, for that $$ and Moustakas is West Coast-Bound and a client of Scott Boras); or Jonathan LuCroy, who has regressed to the point where a platoon of d'Arnaud and Plawecki will produce better offensive AND defensive stats, shockingly enough.
~The game of baseball has perhaps the fewest quality catchers at the major league level right now then at any time I can remember. There are less than 10 top quality receivers, and there also are not a ton of top prospects in the game at the minor league level, either. Tomas Nido had good stats this past season but he still doesn't look like anything beyond another back-up major leaguer, at best. Therefore, no team is going to give up their top catcher in trade unless the Mets plan on including names such as Syndergaard or deGrom, which is NOT going to happen!!!
~The 2017 class of free agents is one of the weakest of all time, and I literally have seen all of them in my lifetime. As bad as the 2017 class is, the 2018 class has the makings of being a complete opposite in terms of both quality AND quantity; therefore, if you were hoping the Mets would spend additional money (and more than likely, as we all know, they WON'T) then you'd better hope that money will be spent the following off-season. Hint: M-A-C-H-A-D-O!!!
~Finally, while we'd all like to see a 100% turnover of the entire organization, from owner ship through nearly every front office position (including manager/coaching staff), the reality is that the best we can hope for is a replacement for Collins and his team. In fact, we already lost a key member of our front office, Adam Fisher, to the rival Braves. We already know that our advance scouting is not exactly first-rate, and our amateur drafting has been a mixed bag. The only area of our front office that seems to be making a difference is in the Latin Scouting area, as a number of our younger Dominican and Venezuelan players seem to be making excellent progress in short order. However, they are still a number of years away and only one team throughout our entire minor league system had any real success this season. We possess a few handfuls of potentially great arms, but our quality position players, once again, seem to be lacking in both quantity and quality. Real money needs to continue being spent on the international free agent market, and with what looks to be the fifth draft pick in next June's draft, a successful draft is essential for our future success. A lot of moving parts, none of which seem to be made of real steel, where instead they more closely resemble PVC tubing- flexible, will do the job but will never be strong.
That being said, on to my plan for 2018!!
New Health/Wellness Regime:
We've all read recently that the team doesn't "blame" Barwiss and his training methods; players have been defending him, the front office is defending him, yet the results were clear as day- more injuries and more CRITICAL injuries this season then ever before in the 55 years the Mets have been around. If nothing is changed, the old saying "if you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got" will never be more apropos.
I have long begged for a new medical and training staff to be brought in, and I would find a different hospital as their current choice has done little to help the Mets, or, for that matter, the football GIants. I also believe, and this is just my logical assumption, that the team doesn't spend as much money on full body-scans (MRI's, CAT Scans, etc) whenever a player is injured, as most big league teams do, in order to save money. Imagine - asking a mechanic to perform an oil change on your Ferrari but telling him NOT to check anything else on the car, that you'd rather simply have it break down and cost more after the fact?! That seems to be the Mets' philosophy, and their medical/training team have simply made too many mistakes for far too long. Need I say more than "Ryan Church?"
So, quite simply, in order to get to greater success in 2018 and beyond, the team needs to re-think their entire wellness philosophy, but they've already stated that they won't. That is one strike against them, but one HUGE strike!!
Therefore, to make up for the team's inability to change their training/wellness regime, they need to bring in a manager who has more than just a passing knowledge of the subject. Introducing:
We've all read recently that the team doesn't "blame" Barwiss and his training methods; players have been defending him, the front office is defending him, yet the results were clear as day- more injuries and more CRITICAL injuries this season then ever before in the 55 years the Mets have been around. If nothing is changed, the old saying "if you always do what you've always done, you'll always get what you've always got" will never be more apropos.
I have long begged for a new medical and training staff to be brought in, and I would find a different hospital as their current choice has done little to help the Mets, or, for that matter, the football GIants. I also believe, and this is just my logical assumption, that the team doesn't spend as much money on full body-scans (MRI's, CAT Scans, etc) whenever a player is injured, as most big league teams do, in order to save money. Imagine - asking a mechanic to perform an oil change on your Ferrari but telling him NOT to check anything else on the car, that you'd rather simply have it break down and cost more after the fact?! That seems to be the Mets' philosophy, and their medical/training team have simply made too many mistakes for far too long. Need I say more than "Ryan Church?"
So, quite simply, in order to get to greater success in 2018 and beyond, the team needs to re-think their entire wellness philosophy, but they've already stated that they won't. That is one strike against them, but one HUGE strike!!
Therefore, to make up for the team's inability to change their training/wellness regime, they need to bring in a manager who has more than just a passing knowledge of the subject. Introducing:
New Manager:
GABE KAPLER
Kapler is probably the most in-shape player anywhere in the game, on the field and off. He has been heavily involved in all phases of player development with the Dodgers, has helped to oversee their physical fitness and is a huge fan of, and committed user, of analytics. He would need an experienced coaching staff to ease the transition, which is why we'll provide him with the following staff:
GABE KAPLER
Kapler is probably the most in-shape player anywhere in the game, on the field and off. He has been heavily involved in all phases of player development with the Dodgers, has helped to oversee their physical fitness and is a huge fan of, and committed user, of analytics. He would need an experienced coaching staff to ease the transition, which is why we'll provide him with the following staff:
New Coaching Staff:
Ron Gardenhire: Bench Coach
Michael Cuddyer: Hitting Coach
Frank Viola: Pitching Coach
LaTroy Hawkins: Asst Pitching Coach/Bullpen Coach
Perry Hill: Infield Coach/Third Base Coach
Tom Goodwin: First Base Coach
There's a good chance this heavily-influenced, Minnesota-based staff would require some form of compensation to the Twins, but it would be worth it. The same holds true in grabbing Hill from the Marlins, but with Jeter apparently cutting all staff he can in order to save as much money as possible, and considering that Hill is practically making a managerial level pay-day, some kind of deal would be workable this off-season for the first time. And let me tell you, this group of ex-players would be worth the expense! Gardy, an ex-Met and ex-manager would be the perfect bench coach; Cuddyer, an ex-Met and beloved player has already proven to be a great asset to the Twins in a limited role; Viola, well, if you haven't been watching his rise through the minors with the Mets, you haven't been paying attention; Hawkins is beloved by everyone he's ever played with, and while a Met player he was constantly giving needed advise to his fellow bullpen mates; Hill is, quite simply, the best infield coach in the game and with names like Smith, Rosario, Flores, Rivera and Guillorme to work with, his investment would pay as immediate dividends as that of Viola's; and, finally, Goodwin has been a great part of the coaching staff and is perhaps the one person capable of becoming a quality manager on his own in the near future.
With this staff behind him, Kapler would have a great support staff, and the players would have a great resource staff behind them. This represents a drastic difference from the group that's been coaching the players currently, and would provide them with relevant wisdom and knowledge that they can utilize immediately.
What do I think the Mets WILL do with their manager/coaching staff?????
Bob Geren or Chip Hale as manager, Scott remains bench coach, Viola comes in as pitching coach, and Goodwin, Sherlock, Bones & Long remain in place.
Ron Gardenhire: Bench Coach
Michael Cuddyer: Hitting Coach
Frank Viola: Pitching Coach
LaTroy Hawkins: Asst Pitching Coach/Bullpen Coach
Perry Hill: Infield Coach/Third Base Coach
Tom Goodwin: First Base Coach
There's a good chance this heavily-influenced, Minnesota-based staff would require some form of compensation to the Twins, but it would be worth it. The same holds true in grabbing Hill from the Marlins, but with Jeter apparently cutting all staff he can in order to save as much money as possible, and considering that Hill is practically making a managerial level pay-day, some kind of deal would be workable this off-season for the first time. And let me tell you, this group of ex-players would be worth the expense! Gardy, an ex-Met and ex-manager would be the perfect bench coach; Cuddyer, an ex-Met and beloved player has already proven to be a great asset to the Twins in a limited role; Viola, well, if you haven't been watching his rise through the minors with the Mets, you haven't been paying attention; Hawkins is beloved by everyone he's ever played with, and while a Met player he was constantly giving needed advise to his fellow bullpen mates; Hill is, quite simply, the best infield coach in the game and with names like Smith, Rosario, Flores, Rivera and Guillorme to work with, his investment would pay as immediate dividends as that of Viola's; and, finally, Goodwin has been a great part of the coaching staff and is perhaps the one person capable of becoming a quality manager on his own in the near future.
With this staff behind him, Kapler would have a great support staff, and the players would have a great resource staff behind them. This represents a drastic difference from the group that's been coaching the players currently, and would provide them with relevant wisdom and knowledge that they can utilize immediately.
What do I think the Mets WILL do with their manager/coaching staff?????
Bob Geren or Chip Hale as manager, Scott remains bench coach, Viola comes in as pitching coach, and Goodwin, Sherlock, Bones & Long remain in place.
New/Former Players:
Before he was considering retirement, I was hoping that the Mets would somehow bring back RA Dickey.
Before you think I'm crazy, let's remember 2 things: first, Robert has remained an innings-eater, something we praised good ole Bartolo for, and something the team was in desperate need of this past season, and second, he was one of the most popular players in club history and ending his career as a Met would have a sense of poetic justice to it. However, if Dickey does indeed retire, or, if, instead, the Braves bring him back and aren't willing to deal him, my next choice is a far costlier one, but one who would also served to stabilize the middle of the rotation- the Cardinals Lance Lynn, soon-to-be a free agent.
Before he was considering retirement, I was hoping that the Mets would somehow bring back RA Dickey.
Before you think I'm crazy, let's remember 2 things: first, Robert has remained an innings-eater, something we praised good ole Bartolo for, and something the team was in desperate need of this past season, and second, he was one of the most popular players in club history and ending his career as a Met would have a sense of poetic justice to it. However, if Dickey does indeed retire, or, if, instead, the Braves bring him back and aren't willing to deal him, my next choice is a far costlier one, but one who would also served to stabilize the middle of the rotation- the Cardinals Lance Lynn, soon-to-be a free agent.
Lynn has been a very solid innings-eater for the Cards (despite his recent horrible outing) for the better part of 6 years, missing a season in '16 due to injuries. He's bounced back well, and at 30 he's a safe bet for 3-4 more very solid years of below 4 ERA's and 180-200 innings. Additionally, he's not going to be in the same cost tier as Darvish and Arrietta, and a 3-4 year, $60-$80 million deal should get the job done. Combined with deGrom and the just returning Syndergaard, at least we'd have 3 solid rotation arms that can be counted on (we PRAY!!)
What do I think the Mets will do regarding upgrading their pitching staff?
Think in the range of a Doug Fister-type. AKA - NADA!
Utilization of Existing Players:
The Pitching Staff:
Whether injuries or Terry's usage, the bullpen has rivaled the starting rotation all season long as the team's chief problem. While there's no truth to the rumor that Jerry Blevins commiserated with Pedro Feliciano regarding Terry's over-usage of the bullpen over drinks at Tavern on the Green, it's no secret that Terry's handling of the bullpen has long been one of his biggest short-comings. Of course, the easiest way to bolster the bullpen is to have starting pitchers lasting into the 7th or 8th inning for a change- I know, IMAGINE THAT- but even with a troubled rotation laden with injuries and 4A arms, Terry's legendary mishandling of the arms he DID have certainly, and finally, will lead the team to forcing him into retirement at the end of the '17 season. Along with Terry, although beloved in many quarters, pitching coach Dan Warthen's teaching of his hard slider helped get the team to the play-offs in '15 & '16, but also led to major injuries and an inability to keep the arms under his watch healthy. Adjustments worked for some pitchers, but not for others; Warthen is beloved like a father figure, but like Terry his time and effectiveness has come to an end.
Sandy has already re-stocked the bullpen with young arms from trading expiring contracts in the Duda, Granderson, Walker and Reed deals, and the reality is that the free agent class of 2018, besides Wade Davis, isn't going to provide anyone with the next stellar pen. Therefore, the team is counting on the return of Familia to form to join Ramos & Blevins at the back end of the pen. Smoker is a safe bet to return, and the rest of the pen figures to be comprised of a combination of the best of the recently acquired arms and whichever starters don't make it into the final rotation.
It's not as crazy as it sounds; the benefits far outweigh the work involved, and the possibility for success in a bullpen-crazed game multiplies exponentially at the thought of having a starter's best stuff versus a middle reliever's best stuff.
How do I think the Mets will handle their pitching staff?
They would sadly never be innovators like I suggest, and will resort to choosing the healthiest 5 arms for the rotation and add 1-3 additional potential starters to their bullpen, sandwiching them around Familia-Ramos-Blevins-Smoker and at least 1 of the young arms Sandy recently acquired.
The infield:
As it stands now, we can count on a few things for 2018-
~Dom Smith will begin 2018 as our first baseman.
~Amed Rosario will begin 2018 as our shortstop.
~David Wright will never come back as a regular player at any position.
~TJ Rivera will take quite a while to heal and still has no regular position.
~Wilmer Flores will be ready in Spring but still has no regular position.
~Asdrubal Cabrera will have his option picked up, because they have no other "real" option (in their eyes) to start the season at third and the difference between his option and declining his option is only $6.5 million.
~Jose Reyes will come back to the team as their back-up at shortstop, second base and third base, and will settle for a small contract in order to remain home in New York.
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This means that names like Reynolds, Cecchini, Mazzilli and Guillorme will either have to settle for being taken via the Rule V draft or playing again in the minors. It also means that no great changes, beyond praying for a return to health for Reyes and Rivera, will be taking place in the infield.
Now, one of the advantages of having Kapler as manager means that he would not tolerate Smith's eating habits or weight gains. Having Hill as infield coach means that Rosario would have someone ensuring that he's mentally and physically ready for every play, and that whomever manned second and third base would benefit from the teachings of the best infield coach in MLB. Then, in the 2018 off-season, my prayer would be we'd be good enough in '18 and have enough $$ to sign a permanent third base option like the afore-mentioned Machado!
What I would love to see happen is for Hill to work regularly with Flores & Rivera, with one of them (preferably Flores) becoming the regular second baseman, utilizing Rivera as their back-up at third and second. I've never even considered the team's chasing Frazier or Moustakas at third, so I've reluctantly come to grips with Cabrera beginning the season at third, but I'd be praying that either a return to health by Rivera puts him solidly in that mix and/or the team acquires a potential long-term starter like former Cubs/current Tigers prospect Jeimer Candelario!
What do I see happening in the infield in '18?
A starting 4 of Smith-Reyes-Rosario-Cabrera and utilizing Flores and Reynolds (until Rivera receives a clean bill of health) as their infield back-ups.
Catching:
Allow me to reiterate: when Sandy said he was "happy" with the team's catching situation, he was actually saying "there aren't enough quality catchers in baseball and no team would be willing to let one go at a price the Mets could afford." THAT, my friends, is Sandy's definition of "happy." The reality is, by today's standards, if Plawecki can remain the player he's looked like since August and d'Arnaud can catch 100 games, the combined offense from the position would be at or above league average. The defense won't be gold glove caliber, but again, gold glove catchers do not grow on trees. Just as the Reds- they just signed their great-fielding, light-hitting catcher, Tucker Barnhart, to a 4-year contract extension after only 3 years in the bigs. So for all those fans thinking we'd be able to "steal" him from the Reds- think again!! For all practical purposes, the only other name you'll probably be hearing about playing for us behind the dish in '18 is Nido. So perish those thoughts of the 32 year old LuCroy suiting up in the orange and blue, as he's most likely going to remain in Colorado where he's seemed to rebound a bit.
What I'd like to see happen?
I'm not willing to see the team trade top arms for a catching prospect who has yet to prove himself in the big leagues. Catchers making the transition from the minors to the bigs remains one of the games' biggest challenges, and with d'Arnaud and Plawecki combined I think we need to give them a full season chance to offer up a solid platoon.
What do I see happening in 2018?
So Travis and Kevin it is...
The Outfield:
What a difference a day makes (or, actually, a whole LOT of days!) Where once we had perhaps the best offensive outfield in the NL with Cespedes in left, Conforto in center and Bruce in right, we end 2017 with none of the 3 on the CitiField grass.
Cespedes has been battling injuries all season, based on what we believe to be the training regimen he was on in the 2016-2017 off-season, where he and Barwiss had Yo looking more like a fullback then an athletic, powerful outfielder. Every time he ran, I was scared he was going to be grabbing for his hamstring, and sadly, that's what became of the entire season for our Cuban superstar. Contrary to what others have written, Cespedes is FAR from being a cancer to the team, and worked his tail off in the off-season in an attempt to justify the contract he had just signed. His biggest mistake was going for ridiculous muscle-mass at the cost of flexibility and his multiple injuries were the proof. A healthy Yo with a chip on his shoulder in 2018 is going to mean a lot of trouble for MLB pitching.
Bruce was the guy that nobody wanted, that we were "stuck" with and proceeded to have one of the finest offensive seasons any Mets' outfielder has ever had. Even his defense was far better than advertised, as it had been ever since we acquired him. Trading Bruce prior to his free agency seemed to be the prudent thing to do for a team that had fallen impossibly behind in the play-off race. However, with the loss of budding superstar, Michael Conforto to injury, the more prudent thing to do in hindsight (and one that I have clamored for) was to sign Bruce to a 4 year contract and let him continue to do great things in Citifield until 2021. Sadly, that won't happen as both the team won't commit to a second expensive outfielder and more than likely Bruce is going to look for an organization that provides him with more steady management as well as seemingly a better chance to contend every year.
Conforto was well on his way to having one of the 2-3 best seasons ever by a homegrown outfielder in Mets history before his brutal shoulder injury (I will NEVER be able to re-watch that swing again, much like the Theisman break!) We already know, and he has admitted, that he won't be ready to begin Spring Training on time next February and that means that he also won't be ready to start the season on time. I spoke with an orthopedist who happens to be a huge baseball fan, and while he didn't examine Conforto personally, he's guessing that, at best, Michael comes back to begin playing in June, and there is still a level of doubt as to whether or not he can come back all the way in 2018, if at all. Shoulder injuries have long waylaid the careers of pitchers, but thankfully in Conforto's case it's his non-throwing shoulder. Unfortunately, he still needs to catch and hit using that arm, and the depth of his injury is such that we have to pray for the best, but possibly expect the worst.
Where are we then, in 2018?
Well, once again, like with Conforto, Terry continues to seem to be reluctant to play Brandon Nimmo every day, something that is inexcusable at this point. All Nimmo has done is provide excellent defense, smart base-running, an on-base percentage of .388, an OPS of .804, the ability to take walks and also, importantly, the skill to work pitchers for deep at-bats which was a huge part of the successful Yankees' teams of the 1990's and beyond. Granted Nimmo will never be a 25 homer guy, and he's struck out more times then we'd like, but he needs to start in '18 until Conforto comes back and then deserves to be in a platoon with Lagares considering the team won't spend any money on the OF this off-season, other then possibly signing Aoki to a one-year deal if they think Conforto will indeed have his season starting late, then either trading or waving him after the rest of the OF mates are back and healthy and playing as expected.
The reality is, for 2018, at least at the start, the outfield will consist of CESPEDES: LAGARES: NIMMO which means that we will have a Center-fielder who can provide a Gold Glove in the field but whom will provide next to no offense in the 8-hole every day that he plays. Not exactly the outfield that dreams are made of, unless you are the Mets' opponents that day.
Our minor league system has a dearth of talented outfielders, none near major league ready, and our best hope, who was at least 2 years away, Desmond Lindsay, was hurt badly this season and his future now is truly up in the air. I can easily see Sandy grabbing for the most advanced college bat with his first pick in next year's draft, hoping to strike gold a second time as he did with Conforto.
The reality is that, for 2018, the entire success of the outfield hinges on how quickly, and how well, Conforto comes back. It's really that simple. And it's also that scary...
Therefore, I'd spend the money and offer enough years to bring Jay Bruce back into the fold. Worse case scenario, we utilize Nimmo as the best 4th OFer in the game and move Conforto back to CF when he's fully healthy again. Bruce has at least 3-4 solid years left, and if it takes 4 years and $100 million, let's ACT like a big market team and make this happen!!! That once again makes what currently looks like a weakness, or a mixed bag at best, into a strong-suit once again.
What do I think will happen?
They won't even make an offer to an outfielder, unless it's a few 4-A types like Travis Snider, and there's even a strong chance that they don't spend the money on Aoki, either.
What do I think the Mets will do regarding upgrading their pitching staff?
Think in the range of a Doug Fister-type. AKA - NADA!
Utilization of Existing Players:
The Pitching Staff:
Whether injuries or Terry's usage, the bullpen has rivaled the starting rotation all season long as the team's chief problem. While there's no truth to the rumor that Jerry Blevins commiserated with Pedro Feliciano regarding Terry's over-usage of the bullpen over drinks at Tavern on the Green, it's no secret that Terry's handling of the bullpen has long been one of his biggest short-comings. Of course, the easiest way to bolster the bullpen is to have starting pitchers lasting into the 7th or 8th inning for a change- I know, IMAGINE THAT- but even with a troubled rotation laden with injuries and 4A arms, Terry's legendary mishandling of the arms he DID have certainly, and finally, will lead the team to forcing him into retirement at the end of the '17 season. Along with Terry, although beloved in many quarters, pitching coach Dan Warthen's teaching of his hard slider helped get the team to the play-offs in '15 & '16, but also led to major injuries and an inability to keep the arms under his watch healthy. Adjustments worked for some pitchers, but not for others; Warthen is beloved like a father figure, but like Terry his time and effectiveness has come to an end.
Sandy has already re-stocked the bullpen with young arms from trading expiring contracts in the Duda, Granderson, Walker and Reed deals, and the reality is that the free agent class of 2018, besides Wade Davis, isn't going to provide anyone with the next stellar pen. Therefore, the team is counting on the return of Familia to form to join Ramos & Blevins at the back end of the pen. Smoker is a safe bet to return, and the rest of the pen figures to be comprised of a combination of the best of the recently acquired arms and whichever starters don't make it into the final rotation.
My best friend of 40+ years and I, an even crazier Mets' fan then I am, if that's possible, have been playing with a thought for about 3 years now in how to handle the teams' plethora of young arms. We call it "paired starters"- let's say we have 2 pitchers, like Zack Wheeler and Rafael Montero, for instance. Wheeler, when finally healthy this season, was having problems getting past the 5th inning, and sometimes through the 4th. Earlier in the year, before having a good string of starts, Montero was suffering from a similar fate. Both starters have had their share of failures, from staying in the game to being overly vulnerable the 3rd time through the line-up (and sometimes even the second time). Therefore, our idea was, to save the bullpen arms and solve some of the rotation's problems was to pair previously problematic starters together as one unit, reducing the bullpen's commitment on those days to one or possible no innings for that game. Let's say, for instance, Montero starts the game and is dominant for 5 innings. Rather then risking him breaking down in the sixth, you bring Wheeler into the game for innings 6-9 and then, only if needed, a closer might be brought in for the ninth if Wheeler (in this situation) wasn't sharp all the way through. In theory, you would have a potential rotation wherein Syndergaard, deGrom and Lynn would work in a traditional fashion, and you'd have pairings involving the likes of Montero, Wheeler, Harvey, Lugo, Matz and Gsellman. Although it would take work in the off-season and in Spring Training, just this past Saturday Syndergaard came in to work the first inning to work his way back from his injury before the season ended and Harvey ended up working the next 4 innings (although it was hoped for, obviously, that he would be able to go well beyond those 4). Imagine that over an entire season, with the plethora of starters coming back from injuries and/or having success issues and all of a sudden the bullpen arms aren't as taxed and the rotation is laden with back-up arms capable of jumping back in in a pinch. Then, when Matz, for instance, shows that he can stay healthy for 2 months and is back to form, he starts going deeper into games and then the need for an extra starter is reduced by one- and from that group of arms the possibility of a trade becomes reality.
As far as personnel matching, I'd leave it to Kapler, Viola and company, but to start the spring I would re-sign Harvey and make it a competition between Harvey, Matz, Wheeler, Lugo, Montero, Gsellman and Flexen for the 4 combo spots as well as who remains in the 'pen as an additional long reliever. The addition of Lynn might give them an arm or two to utilize in a trade, but not for anything meaningful until, at the very least, the end of the spring so an opposing team could place a reasonable value, and not a completely speculative value, on one of our arms (because it's ALWAYS going to be speculative when an arms moves out of NY!!) I would favor keeping every one of these arms, but it's probably not possible just from a sheer numbers perspective.
It's not as crazy as it sounds; the benefits far outweigh the work involved, and the possibility for success in a bullpen-crazed game multiplies exponentially at the thought of having a starter's best stuff versus a middle reliever's best stuff.
How do I think the Mets will handle their pitching staff?
They would sadly never be innovators like I suggest, and will resort to choosing the healthiest 5 arms for the rotation and add 1-3 additional potential starters to their bullpen, sandwiching them around Familia-Ramos-Blevins-Smoker and at least 1 of the young arms Sandy recently acquired.
The infield:
As it stands now, we can count on a few things for 2018-
~Dom Smith will begin 2018 as our first baseman.
~Amed Rosario will begin 2018 as our shortstop.
~David Wright will never come back as a regular player at any position.
~TJ Rivera will take quite a while to heal and still has no regular position.
~Wilmer Flores will be ready in Spring but still has no regular position.
~Asdrubal Cabrera will have his option picked up, because they have no other "real" option (in their eyes) to start the season at third and the difference between his option and declining his option is only $6.5 million.
~Jose Reyes will come back to the team as their back-up at shortstop, second base and third base, and will settle for a small contract in order to remain home in New York.
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This means that names like Reynolds, Cecchini, Mazzilli and Guillorme will either have to settle for being taken via the Rule V draft or playing again in the minors. It also means that no great changes, beyond praying for a return to health for Reyes and Rivera, will be taking place in the infield.
Now, one of the advantages of having Kapler as manager means that he would not tolerate Smith's eating habits or weight gains. Having Hill as infield coach means that Rosario would have someone ensuring that he's mentally and physically ready for every play, and that whomever manned second and third base would benefit from the teachings of the best infield coach in MLB. Then, in the 2018 off-season, my prayer would be we'd be good enough in '18 and have enough $$ to sign a permanent third base option like the afore-mentioned Machado!
What I would love to see happen is for Hill to work regularly with Flores & Rivera, with one of them (preferably Flores) becoming the regular second baseman, utilizing Rivera as their back-up at third and second. I've never even considered the team's chasing Frazier or Moustakas at third, so I've reluctantly come to grips with Cabrera beginning the season at third, but I'd be praying that either a return to health by Rivera puts him solidly in that mix and/or the team acquires a potential long-term starter like former Cubs/current Tigers prospect Jeimer Candelario!
What do I see happening in the infield in '18?
A starting 4 of Smith-Reyes-Rosario-Cabrera and utilizing Flores and Reynolds (until Rivera receives a clean bill of health) as their infield back-ups.
Catching:
Allow me to reiterate: when Sandy said he was "happy" with the team's catching situation, he was actually saying "there aren't enough quality catchers in baseball and no team would be willing to let one go at a price the Mets could afford." THAT, my friends, is Sandy's definition of "happy." The reality is, by today's standards, if Plawecki can remain the player he's looked like since August and d'Arnaud can catch 100 games, the combined offense from the position would be at or above league average. The defense won't be gold glove caliber, but again, gold glove catchers do not grow on trees. Just as the Reds- they just signed their great-fielding, light-hitting catcher, Tucker Barnhart, to a 4-year contract extension after only 3 years in the bigs. So for all those fans thinking we'd be able to "steal" him from the Reds- think again!! For all practical purposes, the only other name you'll probably be hearing about playing for us behind the dish in '18 is Nido. So perish those thoughts of the 32 year old LuCroy suiting up in the orange and blue, as he's most likely going to remain in Colorado where he's seemed to rebound a bit.
What I'd like to see happen?
I'm not willing to see the team trade top arms for a catching prospect who has yet to prove himself in the big leagues. Catchers making the transition from the minors to the bigs remains one of the games' biggest challenges, and with d'Arnaud and Plawecki combined I think we need to give them a full season chance to offer up a solid platoon.
What do I see happening in 2018?
So Travis and Kevin it is...
The Outfield:
What a difference a day makes (or, actually, a whole LOT of days!) Where once we had perhaps the best offensive outfield in the NL with Cespedes in left, Conforto in center and Bruce in right, we end 2017 with none of the 3 on the CitiField grass.
Cespedes has been battling injuries all season, based on what we believe to be the training regimen he was on in the 2016-2017 off-season, where he and Barwiss had Yo looking more like a fullback then an athletic, powerful outfielder. Every time he ran, I was scared he was going to be grabbing for his hamstring, and sadly, that's what became of the entire season for our Cuban superstar. Contrary to what others have written, Cespedes is FAR from being a cancer to the team, and worked his tail off in the off-season in an attempt to justify the contract he had just signed. His biggest mistake was going for ridiculous muscle-mass at the cost of flexibility and his multiple injuries were the proof. A healthy Yo with a chip on his shoulder in 2018 is going to mean a lot of trouble for MLB pitching.
Bruce was the guy that nobody wanted, that we were "stuck" with and proceeded to have one of the finest offensive seasons any Mets' outfielder has ever had. Even his defense was far better than advertised, as it had been ever since we acquired him. Trading Bruce prior to his free agency seemed to be the prudent thing to do for a team that had fallen impossibly behind in the play-off race. However, with the loss of budding superstar, Michael Conforto to injury, the more prudent thing to do in hindsight (and one that I have clamored for) was to sign Bruce to a 4 year contract and let him continue to do great things in Citifield until 2021. Sadly, that won't happen as both the team won't commit to a second expensive outfielder and more than likely Bruce is going to look for an organization that provides him with more steady management as well as seemingly a better chance to contend every year.
Conforto was well on his way to having one of the 2-3 best seasons ever by a homegrown outfielder in Mets history before his brutal shoulder injury (I will NEVER be able to re-watch that swing again, much like the Theisman break!) We already know, and he has admitted, that he won't be ready to begin Spring Training on time next February and that means that he also won't be ready to start the season on time. I spoke with an orthopedist who happens to be a huge baseball fan, and while he didn't examine Conforto personally, he's guessing that, at best, Michael comes back to begin playing in June, and there is still a level of doubt as to whether or not he can come back all the way in 2018, if at all. Shoulder injuries have long waylaid the careers of pitchers, but thankfully in Conforto's case it's his non-throwing shoulder. Unfortunately, he still needs to catch and hit using that arm, and the depth of his injury is such that we have to pray for the best, but possibly expect the worst.
Where are we then, in 2018?
Well, once again, like with Conforto, Terry continues to seem to be reluctant to play Brandon Nimmo every day, something that is inexcusable at this point. All Nimmo has done is provide excellent defense, smart base-running, an on-base percentage of .388, an OPS of .804, the ability to take walks and also, importantly, the skill to work pitchers for deep at-bats which was a huge part of the successful Yankees' teams of the 1990's and beyond. Granted Nimmo will never be a 25 homer guy, and he's struck out more times then we'd like, but he needs to start in '18 until Conforto comes back and then deserves to be in a platoon with Lagares considering the team won't spend any money on the OF this off-season, other then possibly signing Aoki to a one-year deal if they think Conforto will indeed have his season starting late, then either trading or waving him after the rest of the OF mates are back and healthy and playing as expected.
The reality is, for 2018, at least at the start, the outfield will consist of CESPEDES: LAGARES: NIMMO which means that we will have a Center-fielder who can provide a Gold Glove in the field but whom will provide next to no offense in the 8-hole every day that he plays. Not exactly the outfield that dreams are made of, unless you are the Mets' opponents that day.
Our minor league system has a dearth of talented outfielders, none near major league ready, and our best hope, who was at least 2 years away, Desmond Lindsay, was hurt badly this season and his future now is truly up in the air. I can easily see Sandy grabbing for the most advanced college bat with his first pick in next year's draft, hoping to strike gold a second time as he did with Conforto.
The reality is that, for 2018, the entire success of the outfield hinges on how quickly, and how well, Conforto comes back. It's really that simple. And it's also that scary...
Therefore, I'd spend the money and offer enough years to bring Jay Bruce back into the fold. Worse case scenario, we utilize Nimmo as the best 4th OFer in the game and move Conforto back to CF when he's fully healthy again. Bruce has at least 3-4 solid years left, and if it takes 4 years and $100 million, let's ACT like a big market team and make this happen!!! That once again makes what currently looks like a weakness, or a mixed bag at best, into a strong-suit once again.
What do I think will happen?
They won't even make an offer to an outfielder, unless it's a few 4-A types like Travis Snider, and there's even a strong chance that they don't spend the money on Aoki, either.
Promotion of Minor Leaguers:
The biggest area that minor league promotions will effect will be, of course, the bullpen. It's impossible to say which arms will end up making it to the bigs in '18, but there are certainly a lot of decent choices for a change. There is also great depth in the middle infield at the higher levels, the one area that we really don't need to worry about and potentially an area of strength to trade from when/if a piece Sandy desires becomes available. It's also possible that we lose a Reynolds or Cecchini to either a Rule V pick or a trade, as depth necessitates a move if/when the team re-signs Reyes and Cabrera. While neither move is 100%, the betting person would take that bet regardless of the odds knowing how Sandy has build his clubs.
The biggest strengths of our minor league system include about 10 fantastic arms, although 4 of them are on the DL recuperating from Tommy John surgery, and lower level Dominican and Venezuelan hitters who are, at best 4-5 years away from the big league club. There are a number of arms that could be ready to start in the bigs in 2018, including Tyler Pill, Chris Flexen (who's had an extended, and uneven, stay in the bigs already this season), PJ Conlon and Corey Oswalt, but I suspect that, if any of them other than Flexen is in the bigs in '18, it will be the result of a trade with another team desperate for pitching such as the Orioles, Royals or Reds. The top level of arms are probably not going to begin paying big league dividends until 2019, but by that time the make-up of this club could potentially be very different.
I really think we need to utilize 2018 as a year to coddle our top young pitching talent, develop them, keep them healthy, and allow them to flourish so that by 2019 they are either part of the major league staff or utilized for trade bait to acquire a top tier talent in an area of great need.
***Writer's Note: Make sure you take a gander at TOM BRENNAN'S excellent minor league prospect rankings, in order to learn more about both the arms I am referring to as well as the rest of the top talent in our system!!!
What do I think will happen?
Exactly what I want to happen, but not by choice. Sandy won't be able to acquire a large enough or meaningful enough package in order to move one of his few assets, and some of the pitching talent on the DL will continue to rehab and return some time late in '18 or early in '19 to provide us with the arm infusion we will likely need.
2018 Summary
How, then, you may ask, can one expect the Mets to become the D-backs of 2017? Well, the following things have to happen:
~The NL East teams play at a level similar to, or worse than, they did during the 2017 season. Will they? More than likely, as the Marlins are going to cut even more payroll, the Phils are muddling and need 2-3 more years to put together a contending team. The Braves are loaded with older position players and a lot of young players with great potential but who have not yet proved anything. The Nationals? They are, most likely, going to be the Nationals again and therefore, after they might lose Harper after next season, the Mets need to prepare now for both 2018 AND 2019, the first year they might be capable of over-taking the boys from DC yet again.
~The top 3 injured players, Syndergaard, Conforto and Cespedes, need to come back completely from their injuries and put up career numbers Can they? Most definitely. Will they? Well, if I were a betting man, I'd risk a lot on both Thor and Yo having bounce-back seasons and providing everything the team and their fans pray for...Conforto, though? Only time will tell. We KNOW he will do everything asked of him and more rehab his shoulder as completely and quickly as possible, but we have to pray that it's an injury that he indeed CAN come back from at 100%!!!
~Familia has to come back healthy and looking like the one-time top closer that he was! With a threesome of Familia, Ramos and Blevins at the back of the bullpen, all health and rarin' to go, the bullpen could become a strength especially when/if some of the young arms Sandy acquired show the potential that he traded for.
~The team needs to remain healthy, at least to the major league average or better! With the same training and medical teams in place, I think it behooves every fan of the team to begin saying extra prayers to whichever deity they pray to asap!!!
~The team needs to bring in the new manager and coaching staff I suggested, or at least men of similar capabilities, in order to care for the great assets the team still has!! Terry and Dan did the best that they could, but in the end they've left a lot to be desired, especially in a season like this where there deficiencies are even more glaring.
~The team needs to bring back Jay Bruce and add Lance Lynn or a similar rotation piece to take stress off of the rest of the rotation and the bullpen!! I don't think there's any way they make either signing happen, but if they did, they'd indeed be following the strategy the D-Backs used in adding a few key performers to their now-healthy core of players, and the results are in the standings!!!!
If we wind up with a similar coaching staff, Bob Geren at the helm, no innings-eater added to the rotation and if any of our top players don't return to health, 2018 might be AS frustrating as 2017 has been- or possibly EVEN MORE since they should've known better!!
Therefore:
IS IT TOO MUCH TO HOPE FOR??? WILL WE SEE ANOTHER PLAY-OFF TEAM UNDER SANDY'S WATCH? HOW ABOUT THIS DECADE?
For these answers and more, tune in next year, same Bat-time, same Bat-Channel.
But don't forget to visit Mack's Mets daily, for all of the key news regarding your current and future Mets' teams!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The biggest area that minor league promotions will effect will be, of course, the bullpen. It's impossible to say which arms will end up making it to the bigs in '18, but there are certainly a lot of decent choices for a change. There is also great depth in the middle infield at the higher levels, the one area that we really don't need to worry about and potentially an area of strength to trade from when/if a piece Sandy desires becomes available. It's also possible that we lose a Reynolds or Cecchini to either a Rule V pick or a trade, as depth necessitates a move if/when the team re-signs Reyes and Cabrera. While neither move is 100%, the betting person would take that bet regardless of the odds knowing how Sandy has build his clubs.
The biggest strengths of our minor league system include about 10 fantastic arms, although 4 of them are on the DL recuperating from Tommy John surgery, and lower level Dominican and Venezuelan hitters who are, at best 4-5 years away from the big league club. There are a number of arms that could be ready to start in the bigs in 2018, including Tyler Pill, Chris Flexen (who's had an extended, and uneven, stay in the bigs already this season), PJ Conlon and Corey Oswalt, but I suspect that, if any of them other than Flexen is in the bigs in '18, it will be the result of a trade with another team desperate for pitching such as the Orioles, Royals or Reds. The top level of arms are probably not going to begin paying big league dividends until 2019, but by that time the make-up of this club could potentially be very different.
I really think we need to utilize 2018 as a year to coddle our top young pitching talent, develop them, keep them healthy, and allow them to flourish so that by 2019 they are either part of the major league staff or utilized for trade bait to acquire a top tier talent in an area of great need.
***Writer's Note: Make sure you take a gander at TOM BRENNAN'S excellent minor league prospect rankings, in order to learn more about both the arms I am referring to as well as the rest of the top talent in our system!!!
What do I think will happen?
Exactly what I want to happen, but not by choice. Sandy won't be able to acquire a large enough or meaningful enough package in order to move one of his few assets, and some of the pitching talent on the DL will continue to rehab and return some time late in '18 or early in '19 to provide us with the arm infusion we will likely need.
2018 Summary
How, then, you may ask, can one expect the Mets to become the D-backs of 2017? Well, the following things have to happen:
~The NL East teams play at a level similar to, or worse than, they did during the 2017 season. Will they? More than likely, as the Marlins are going to cut even more payroll, the Phils are muddling and need 2-3 more years to put together a contending team. The Braves are loaded with older position players and a lot of young players with great potential but who have not yet proved anything. The Nationals? They are, most likely, going to be the Nationals again and therefore, after they might lose Harper after next season, the Mets need to prepare now for both 2018 AND 2019, the first year they might be capable of over-taking the boys from DC yet again.
~The top 3 injured players, Syndergaard, Conforto and Cespedes, need to come back completely from their injuries and put up career numbers Can they? Most definitely. Will they? Well, if I were a betting man, I'd risk a lot on both Thor and Yo having bounce-back seasons and providing everything the team and their fans pray for...Conforto, though? Only time will tell. We KNOW he will do everything asked of him and more rehab his shoulder as completely and quickly as possible, but we have to pray that it's an injury that he indeed CAN come back from at 100%!!!
~Familia has to come back healthy and looking like the one-time top closer that he was! With a threesome of Familia, Ramos and Blevins at the back of the bullpen, all health and rarin' to go, the bullpen could become a strength especially when/if some of the young arms Sandy acquired show the potential that he traded for.
~The team needs to remain healthy, at least to the major league average or better! With the same training and medical teams in place, I think it behooves every fan of the team to begin saying extra prayers to whichever deity they pray to asap!!!
~The team needs to bring in the new manager and coaching staff I suggested, or at least men of similar capabilities, in order to care for the great assets the team still has!! Terry and Dan did the best that they could, but in the end they've left a lot to be desired, especially in a season like this where there deficiencies are even more glaring.
~The team needs to bring back Jay Bruce and add Lance Lynn or a similar rotation piece to take stress off of the rest of the rotation and the bullpen!! I don't think there's any way they make either signing happen, but if they did, they'd indeed be following the strategy the D-Backs used in adding a few key performers to their now-healthy core of players, and the results are in the standings!!!!
If we wind up with a similar coaching staff, Bob Geren at the helm, no innings-eater added to the rotation and if any of our top players don't return to health, 2018 might be AS frustrating as 2017 has been- or possibly EVEN MORE since they should've known better!!
Therefore:
IS IT TOO MUCH TO HOPE FOR??? WILL WE SEE ANOTHER PLAY-OFF TEAM UNDER SANDY'S WATCH? HOW ABOUT THIS DECADE?
For these answers and more, tune in next year, same Bat-time, same Bat-Channel.
But don't forget to visit Mack's Mets daily, for all of the key news regarding your current and future Mets' teams!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
12 comments:
A few months back I wrote a piece about managerial options and Kapler was most definitely on that list. A nutrition and conditioning first guy is certainly a breath of fresh air. Also an infusion of youth is most definitely needed.
Just now on MLB Central Ken Rosenthal compared the Mets of 2018 to the D-Backs of '17!! He said with improved health, an innings eater and a few key moves Mets fans will be happier in 2018! I pray, daily!!
I met Gabe years ago when he was still a minor-leaguer and was a regular at the sports bar that I ran and he was a great guy! I bumped into him a few years ago after he had joined the Dodgers front office and congratulated him and we spoke for about 10 minutes and the first thing that struck me was his passion for his fellow players and his knowledge of statistics was inspiring. The Dodgers didn't hire him as a manager only because of his lack of experience and the fact that he would've been heralding a veteran laden team. The fact that he remains one of the big decision makers in a front office laden with high paid and very seasoned executives says all you need to know about how well he is thought of in that organization. His commitment to baseball-centric condition they would indeed be a breath of fresh air and perhaps would mitigate the lack of change in the teams training and fitness departments.
We should start a campaign now...I can see the t-shirts -- "Kaplan for Kapler"
This is a fantastic article. I agree with many of the points about what the mets will do vs what someone might wish them to do. The article is grounded in reality.
For me I look at the managerial options and either want someone like kaplan or someone like alex cora. For 3 reasons, you cant be afraid to play young guys, you have to be able to communicate well with the media, and someone who can be a positive role model for those young guys. I think Cora would be a boon to both Rosario and Cespedes and obviously he could handle the media.
as for smith's weight one of the problems has been food options after games in minor league is all fast food, in the majors he should be able to eat much better. also lets hope he is fully committed to working on his body in the off season.
Im fine withe the mets outfield of cespedes/nimmo-lagares/conforto tbh. Id like a guy with speed as the 5th guy.
You make the correct point about the dearth of catching. I would hope they go out to find a stellar defensive/framing catcher for AAA depth. One of those two catchers is getting injured so might as have someone who makes the pitchers better vs being much of a hitter. david ross type.
The infield is truly a crap shoot. Id like to see the mets bring back reed too. the reason the mets wont be spending 150mm is bc they dont have places to really do it wo redundancies and they arent about that life.
pitching staff is 2018 will make:
degrom 10mm
Thor 1mm - 3mm (1st year arb)
harvey 6mm
wheeler 3-5 mm
matz/lugo/gsellman all 3 combined 2 mm
total: 25mm
And im waiting on machado. gonna need 30 mm for him a year.
Thorough job, David. Nice.
I like your changes at manager and coaches a lot - WE NEED REGIME CHANGE.
Dom Smith - if he struggles in the spring, I'd ship him back to Vegas and put Flores there at 1B. Who is to say Flores can't be a better 1B (considering the total package, O and D) than Smith? No coddling. Trying to win it all is key....no rebuild time, as your article is hoping for. Perform, Dom, or go down. It could be a wake up call that drives him to lose 20 or 30 pounds. Back in the day, he would have been a prime candidate for Ephedra before it got banned.
I got my firSt smartphone 2day. Sorry 4 lack of participation
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Reese- I'm down for one of those shirts!!!
Robb- thanks for your kind words!! I would love Cora, Alomar Jr or Super Joe McEwing if Kapler isn't their choice Going after another same ole, same ole person is going to get us less than the desired results we need, nay demand,, from this team!! I am also hearing today that the team is definitely bringing back Harvey and are NOT going after a mid-rotation arm but instead are looking to bolster the bullpen. UGH!!!! Maybe a return for Reed, but who knows!!
Tom- thanks, bud! Dom has ALSO been told to work on getting more power from his swing and he's uppercutting, which explains his hitting issues. He needs to go back to what made him a top prospect in the first place, and he REALLY needs to work on his conditioning BIG TIME to ensure his mobility on the field and is long-term place on the team. Alonso can't field but he sure can hit- would hate to see Dom achieve anything less then we have all hoped for from him!!!!
Mack- deal with the new phone and the computer issues and the LIFE issues- 1,000,000 times more important!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That's what scares me so much about the thought of Kevin Long as manager. He then will have full reign to teach his "swing for the fences" approach to everyone and for a team with a great many younger players (who might actually make it into the lineup under a new manager) I can foresee problems. As David just said, let a player reinforce what makes him successful before you try to change him.
David and Reese - great points on Smith. Also glad Long grid to get Smith to hit more HRs, but he needs to hit first...homers ought to come. Smith can be a doubles machine...if he puts up Keith Hernandez type #'s, I will gladly take that.
Smith should rent the Rocky movie with Me T. Sly Stallone was huge in his first ever (?) movie (Lords of Flatbush), and super lean in the Rockie flick. Serious training can do wonders.
David, an absolute beast of an article. Tons of well thought out ideas with solid and realistic approaches. Great job.
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