Tom Brennan – RHYS HOSKINS AND JOSH PREVOST

This is another tale of draft philosophies.  Some draft philosophies are correct ones, and then there is the Mets’ wrong philosophy.

The Mets have done pretty well drafting a few starting pitchers (Harvey, Matz) and lucky with others in later rounds (deGrom, Lugo). 

Relievers, not well at all (a bunch of guys have done OK in the minors but lack the velocity to dominate major leaguers. So far, Paul Sewald and Chase Bradford).

Hitters?  Pretty awful, thank you.  Yes, Michael Conforto is great, but he fell to them and was clearly a no-brainer pick. 

Other very high offensive picks? The jury is still out on Dom Smith.  Ditto Brandon Nimmo, who at least so far has clearly substandard power for a first round OF. 

Gavin Cecchini?  A puzzling first round pick at the time that still appears puzzling – devoid of power. 

What about 2^nd rounder Des Lindsay?  Still waiting for a season of more than 65 games to see if he is prospect or suspect, and how much power he might provide.

The Mets, with the notable exceptions like Conforto and Pete Alonso, seem to avoid draftfew ing power like the plague.  Heck, their one winning minor league team this year was Binghamton and they hit 66 homers – the 2^nd to last team hit 89, and the best of the bunch hit 153, or nearly 2 ½ times the Mets' AA rate.

Some teams seek out power, understanding that power is the straw that stirs the drink.  The Yankees will draft a baseball-captivating Aaron Judge and sign a Garry Sanchez (50 major league homers in 622 at bats).  The Mets, on the other hand, sign 16 shortstops a year who combine for 3 homers and weigh as much in total as Judge and Sanchez.

Philadelphia knows that power is valuable in the bigs, and they draft that way…152 homers for their International League AAA team, one of the league’s best – Vegas was close with 146, but in a hitters’ league; in AA, 153 Phils homers vs. Mets’ 66; in High A, 104 Phils dingers vs Mets’ 78; in Full A, 84 over the wall from Phils’ bats vs. Mets’ 67; in NY Penn ball, 45 “outa here” vs. Mets’ 17; in GCL ball, 25 vs. Mets’ 14.  So on those 6 levels, the Phils hit 175 more homers than the Mets’ teams.  Because the Mets hate to draft power.  Despise it.  Recoil from it.

One such Phils power signing was 2014 5^th rounder Rhys Hoskins.  The Mets decided that they did not need to try a power bat in that draft with a relatively high selection, and 3 picks later in round 5 drafted forgettable starter/reliever Josh Prevost, with an underwhelming 125 Ks in 183 IP.  That K rate is far from an OK rate, OK?

Rhys Hoskins in 900 minor league at bats in 2016 and 2017 hit 67 homers; in the big leagues, a major league record 17 homers in his first 33 games through September 13.  But our wonderful organization’s preference?  Not a power hitter.  Nope.  A “solid” minor league reliever in Prevost who was clearly not a flame thrower.  Why, you never know when a guy like him might be the next Eddie Kunz, right?  Eddie was so steady…he got steadily worse, for anyone paying attention.

The round before, the Mets picked Eudor Garcia, a seemingly decent bat but not a HR POWER bat.  He hit just 16 homers in 900 plate appearances before heading to Tijuana to play for the Toros.  The land of siestas!

Who else have they picked in the 4^th and 5^th rounds recently?  Oh me, oh my, you had to ask?

In 2013, the utterly mediocre Jared King in the 5^th round, and equally mediocre LJ Mazzilli in the 4^th round.  No power there for either.  In 3,316 minor league at bats the 2 combined for 35 homers, or 1 every 95 plate appearances.  Dead ball era stuff.  Mazzilli went in the same round, by the way, as LAD Cody Bellinger, who will win NL Rookie of the Year over Rhys Hoskins because LAD drafted for power and Cody has hit 37 homers in 116 games in his rookie campaign.

2012, in the 4^th and 5^th rounds, Branden Kaupe and Brandon Welch were selected.   “Good or bad does not matter this season, boys, just pick me a Brandon or two.”  The 5’7” Kaupe went to the plate 600 times and managed 4 (yes just 4) doubles and 6 triples.  Homers?  “No, sir, those fences are just too deep for me.  I almost hit one in batting practice, though.  And two of my longest shots equaled one of Aaron Judge’s, isn’t that enough?” 

Welch, like Kaupe, was released from rookie ball Brooklyn; the non-fireballer fanned 43 in 65 innings. “Those 6 K per 9 inning guys in rookie ball project out to 1.6 Ks per 9 innings at the big league level, we’ll take 3 of those, please,” said Sandy Alderson.

 In 2015, OK, I concede a bit, they did OK - they picked pitcher Tom Szapucki (very good pick) and David Thompson (modest power, time will tell if his ceiling is AAA or MLB).

2016?  Picked in the 4^th round was diminutive IF Michael Paez (another 5’7” guy – so many teams pick future MLB stars that are 5’7” right?) with some power (12 homers in 700 plate appearances, .230).  In the 5^th round, a wildly whiffing SS (58 Ks in 179 ABs this season) with little power (Colby Woodmansee) whose career stats are .213/.268/.276.  “Love those low power, high strikeout hitters, don’t you, boys?  Let’s draft several of these this year.”

In 2017, a hopefully good reliever in Tony Dibrell in round 4, and (not to be insulting, since his is a limited sample) powerless Matt Winaker (1 double in 86 plate appearances) in the 5^th round.  When I say one double, I am implying there are no triples and no homers, in case you are unsure.

So, Mets' braintrust (seemingly short on brains and we can't trust them), draft for power please – sometimes (when you do, as with 7^th round Lucas Duda) you just get lucky.  Stop drafting guys with average speed, low-to-non existent power, and nice smiles.  I’ll take power and scowls myself.  Not that Rhys Hoskins scowls.  He will, howeved, help the Phils win and draw fans.

But I tell you what, can we ask the Phils if we can have Rhys Hoskins and they can have all of the 4^th and 5^th rounders I list above in exchange?  I don’t think they’ll bite, do you?  But it can't hurt to ask - so much quantity for just one guy.

You want power, draft power hitters - or pay $110 million for 4 years to buy one - it is up to you.