The Mets ended up 10 games over .500 in 2019 at 86-76.
They also ended up with 791 runs scored and 737 runs allowed.
A +/- of + 54 runs.
Which pretty much lines up with an 86-76 record.
The Mets were 13th in runs scored and 11th in ERA, which also pretty much lines up with an 86-76 team.
So...what are my thoughts on 2020?
I am thinking a +/- increasing from + 54 in 2019 to + 150 in 2020.
Which would point more towards a 95-100 win season in 2020.
Why do I think the team will be + 150 in runs in 2020? Let's break it down.
OFFENSE:
The offense was sputtering early in 2019 due to injuries - Nimmo out, Frazier out, Lowrie never showing up, Cano hurting.
In August, the Mets were 5th in scoring out of 30 teams.
In September, the Mets were 9th in scoring.
I think August and September, hitting-wise, are the pace that the Mets can expect to score at in 2020. Why? I think Todd Frazier is gone, but his replacement at bats from Jed Lowrie and others should be equal to, or better than, Todd's. A full year of Nimmo vs. the CF mess of 2019 will also help this team improve offensively.
And let's assume for a second that the Mets actually score more runs at home than on the road for a change.
The 7th best team in 2019 scored 855 runs, or 64 more than the Metsies.
So let's assume the Mets jump up 50 runs scored in 2020, to be conservative.
PITCHING:
Pitching-wise, the Mets had only the 20th best team ERA prior to Phil Regan, but 6th thereafter. I estimate that with Marcus Stroman and an improved pen, the Mets pitchers should allow roughly 1/3 run per game less in 2020, equating to 54 fewer runs.
Round that to 46, to allow the math to work out smoothly.
SUMMARY:
Take last year's + 54, add better 2020 offense of 50 runs, plus 46 fewer runs allowed...that gets you to a + 150 in 2020.
And it could be better than that, if ownership diminishes the team's rate of utilization of dreadfully-performing "subs and scrubs" in 2020, a subject of an article I posted to this site a week or so ago.
That article postulated that offensive subs and scrubs had 14% of the Mets' non-pitcher at bats in 2019 and hit a mere .197!
And the same caliber of back up subby-scrubby pitchers posted a ghastly 6.59 ERA in 194 innings, 13% of the Mets' pitchers' total innings.
Cut in half the percentage of such scrubby innings pitched, and scrubby at bats taken, by subs and scrubs in 2020 - replace with real, quality major leaguers - and that would really boost the Mets' chances of a + 150 or better runs differential season.
Hey - add a new manager who can make less mistakes than Mickey Giveaway, too????
That's a PLUS PLUS right there.
That's a PLUS PLUS right there.
So, c'mon, Brodey.
Let's do it. + 150 or bust, baby!
15 comments:
Some would say making fewer mistakes than Brodie made in his Rookie season would help, too.
Per Regan:
Going 20th to 6th is enough (in the Mets way) to tell him that he will not be invited back in 2020.
These things don't happen in a vacuum. The NL East is so tough now. The Braves, the Phillies, the Nationals. That's 54 games right there. Damn.
When Sandy was GM, it was a wide open field. All they had to do was try.
Just pointing out the obvious: the path is much, much, much harder now.
And ownership doesn't have it in them to compete.
Jimmy
"And ownership doesn't have it in them to compete."
All the anti-owner sentiment is getting tired. I might have been on board in the Madoff days but the Mets arent that far away from the salary cap and have spent some money just not always wisely. Every single move the Mets make or don't make is littered with ownership sucks comments (on reddit, blog comments and twitter anyways).
I do agree the Mets division is going to continue to be very tough. The Marlins arent going to be terrible forever either.
The analysis of scrub percentage is interesting. This is probably a difficult task but you wonder how that compares to the other teams. How do you identify a scrub? Just someone not performing or a washed up vet or AAAA player used to fill spots.
Definition of scrub? Simply, is the player a guy who the Yankees or Astros or other elite teams would hardly entertain using, or wouldn't use at all. We grossly overused them in 2018 and still way too much (but somewhat less) in 2019.
I did not, for instance, include Travis d'Arnaud's 2 for 23 in the offensive calculation because I did not see him as a scrub. He proved that afterwards in Tampa.
A key test for ownership - can they go toe to toe with their division rivals by making bold moves to upgrade this offseason?
Good work, Tom.....this is one of my favorite statistical models for looking at teams and if they are "for real", or not.
The Nats had a strong run differential which was a harbinger of things to come, despite being a Wild Card team.
I agree that the Mets should address both ends of that calculation (runs scored and runs surrendered), which will be interesting
if they let Wheeler walk.
Mike, a lot of it comes down to simple math. Score a lot more than you give up, and you'll likely do great.
The offseason and its purported ideal player moves being bantered about everywhere.
They are everywhere.
It's getting hard to avoid all the expert commentaries. Most suggestions (especially the six or eight player moves between any team and the NY Mets) so often fall between lame and ridiculous. Like trading bad contract for bad contract. Nice if it could workout ever, but can one.
How I see it right now with this NY Mets team is this. The Mets need a few things and not a glut of moves being made. This team came together beautifully second half, mainly because it was such a new team of key players. It had to gel and did so nicely. This 2019 Mets team beat the Washington Nationals 12 of 19 games mind you. Not bad. Imagine if they had assembled at some piont during the second half a really topnotch bullpen and made the wild card?
It wasn't an impossible dream to think a bullpen that was so wide open for someone/anyone to completely dominate later inning especially. The job was there for the taking. Justin Wilson and Seth Lugo came mighty close to doing just that. But what if a few others had stepped up a little more as well. See my point. They were close. The hitting was there most of the time and right now in the field there are really only two openings remaining for 2020, in my opinion. I see no point in changing this fact with trades that deplete these starting six field positions.
My point here is this one. The NY Mets do absolutely have the trade pieces right now to fill these two vacancies, without touching any of these really good six players. It can be done simply enough by using some of the starting pitchers (not named deGrom, Syndergaard, or even Wheeler if Zachary can agree to a proposed Mets contract offering that is reasonable and fair to both sides. I think it can be done.
But it will take some wrangling I do agree.
Like what?
Like for instance (as strictly an example here) a four player trade with Boston. My idea was something along the lines of a Gimenez and maybe a Matz or a sign and trade using Stroman to Boston. In return, with the Mets receiving 3B Bobby Dalbec and LSP Daniel McGrath, who had a very impressive MiLB AAA 2019 with stats that look cement to him.
Analyzed
Boston gets their longterm solution (and an affordable one they need) in Andres Gimenez. They have no one currently available in Bostonfor this position beyond maybe Brad Holt. But Holt is over 30 years old now and has mostly been used off the bench. Boston also needs to redo their pitching staff. They have quite unreasonable contracts resting there in David Price and Chris Sale, both also having arm trouble in 2019. Rick Porcello remains a roller coaster ride, and Nathan Eovaldi is rumored to be gone soon according to many insider reports. Nathan is coming off injuries of recent. So Boston needs starting pitching and a second baseman of worth and potential. These two positions are their most pressing needs at present.
The Mets would receive an up and comer in third baseman Bobby Dalbec, a big strong kid with vast potential and untapped power game. An argument could also be made for Michael Chavis, another third baseman in their system who is good and still not yet totally formed, but with very similar potential as well. Neither one can start on Red Sox third base because of a fabulous young third baseman there now named Rafael Devers. The Mets could also receive a lower rotation starter (right now) in lefty kid Daniel McGrath who soon could quite possibly be an upper starter.
This is one good example.
Sometimes a team can actually gain by subtraction, especially if that subtraction leads to something even better.
As far as adding more from within the NY Mets own MiLB system, I like catcher Ali Sanchez still and reliever Matt Blackham. Sanchez would come in off the bench to backup Wilson Ramos. And Blackham could be used as another good arm from the bullpen. His stat sheet from 2019 is most impressive I felt.
I wanted Tim Tebow to be ready for a utility outfield role in 2020. But he got married instead. (Too funny) Tim may be leaning now towards retirement and the family life. Who could blame him here for that. I am a fan of Gator Tebow for sure.
I think any team making huge moves needs to be carefully scrutinized. And I do not favor any of the over-30 free agents, unless his name is Derrick Cole, for a billion dollars per. Although Cole is a true AL Cy Young Award contender right now. But Derrick too will be 30 years old (I think anyway) come 2020/21. So...
Baseball contracts have gotten a bit out of control lately perhaps. I say this because many of the over-30 players on the free agent list presently for next season, are really not starting great offensive players anymore. And it would be unwise for these to consider themselves worth what their last big contract had earned them.
Many may price themselves right out of the market in so doing that. We'll see. There are almost always teams interested, so who really knows for certain here. But the NY Mets team at current is all about the younger players being the core.
The "NY Post" (a day or so ago) suggested a Red Sox trade proposal idea of something like: Rick Porcello and JD Martinez to the Mets for the one year remaining contract of Yoenis Cespedes (and his foot of course). But the duration of contract remaining on Martinez and Porcello maybe made it a questionable idea for the Mets to seriously consider. Not sure. Porcello was up and down in 2019, while JD Martinez was more consistent in his play and had decent homeruns.
Sometimes a team probably needs to eat their own contracts. We'll see what happens. But this should all be fun to follow this off season.
It's all about 2020 now and beyond!
LGM!!
I am still thinking Houston Astros in seven.
I knew that Washington had slightly the better starter going last night in Strasburg, although he and Verlander both are excellent starters. Let's be honest.
Tonight's game is looking like Max Scherzer and Zach Greinke. I had heard online recently that on Sunday Max Scherzer could not lift his pitching arm and had to be given a shot to ease the pain there. But he is the Nationals' number two starter, while Zach Greinke is the Astros number three man in their rotation, despite Greinke also being a well accomplished starting pitcher.
By rights, if the neck issue with Max Scherzer had never happened, I probably would have favored the Nationals in tonight's game just a tad, from a strictly pitching perspective. These two teams are fairly similar in design and talent capability, both in the pitching department and offensively. But Grienke is a solid starter too. We must not forget that.
My guess, is that this game seven will once again come down to the team with the better relievers and precisely when they are used in this championship ballgame. In other words here, who relieves Scherzer and what inning that happens in, and then who relieves Greinke and when.
The Nationals also have (3) starters available to them as well as their normal bullpen. Guys like Anibel Sanchez, Patrick Corbin (a bit dinged up as well), and who knows maybe even Steven Strasburg for the last inning.
While Houston has Derrick Cole and super impressive Jose Uriquidy to add to their possible bullpen.
This game is so darn close to being even.
But I predicted Houston in seven to start this WS series, and I will stick with that. This would make for the first home field win in this incredibly entertaining World Series. The best World Series I have seen in quite sometime, as far as closeness and overall excitement it brings baseball fans.
Hey Mack, did I mention that the NY Mets beat the Washington Nationals during the 2019 season 12 of 19 games?
(Probably once or twice right)
That’s a lot to browse thru, Anon. Interesting stuff. But...Try to limit it perhaps with a focus on one or two points. Too much to respond to.
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