Reese Kaplan -- A Controversial Money Saving Move to Consider

When you get Mets fans sitting around and talking about the solid foundation built by various front office members over the past few years, there’s a uniformity in the belief that you don’t tamper with the core.  Based upon what we saw in the second half of last year, that nexus for the future would include Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano (due to salary), Amed Rosario, Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo, some starting pitchers and some relievers.  Note that Wilson Ramos (poor defense, expiring contract), Yoenis Cespedes (a “boar-densome” salary), Jed Lowrie (or whatever remains of him), and others on one-year deals do not qualify. 

Going into 2021 there is plenty of room for change as a number of players are hitting important career milestones.  Marcus Stroman, for example, is free agent eligible after this season.  Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard are on for one more year at best before the lure of the highest bidder starts yodeling in their ears.  Justin Wilson is a free agent.  Ditto Brad Brach.  Dellin Betances has a one year option.  The same contract decisions apply to others as well.

Let’s assume your infield is locked up with Alonso, Cano, Rosario and McNeil right to left.  That’s certainly not too shabby even if Cano’s best days were in the Bronx and at the coffee shops of Seattle.  The 2020 season is a big proving year for J.D. Davis who demonstrates that 2019 was not an illusion or some combination of pitcher experience with him or shoulder woes inhibit similar performance achievements.  Brandon Nimmo needs to prove he can stay healthy with no real outfielders threatening his job in the upper minors.  Michael Conforto has made himself into a credible right fielder and an offensive threat.  The only real offensive position at risk appears to be catcher.

So if you’re the Mets and you have a lot of money coming off the books, how do you grow and/or reinforce what you already have?  Many are advocating a long term deal for Michael Conforto that will prevent him from ever sniffing the filet mignon dinners offered during the free agent courtship of other teams.  Bear in mind that he is observant about other outfielders in the game such as Christian Yelich who just inked a $200 million deal, Nick Castellanos who went for 4 years/$64 million ($16 million per year) and Charlie Blackmon currently earning over $21 million per season.  Many are saying Mookie Betts will double what Yelich got.  What then is Conforto worth?

Well, first you can look at the WAR numbers.  Conforto has accumulated 12.8 WAR over approximately 4 full seasons worth of ABs.  That’s 3.25 per year.  If a single WAR is worth $8 million, then he’s looking around $25 million per year.  That’s some heavy duty payroll action and not really commensurate with the inclination the Mets have shown to stay under the $208 million payroll total before incurring penalties.    

My wild thought is heavily dependent on the season produced by J.D. Davis.  If he can put together a close to 30 HR/85 RBI season while hitting close to .300, would the club be better off inserting him into right field in place of Conforto and then trading Conforto for a new catcher or several minor league reinforcements?  Remember, in his one almost full season in the majors Davis produced just 1.0 WAR as a testament to his subpar defense.  He did hit .307 with 22 HRs and 57 RBIs in just over 400 ABs, so there was no question about his bat.  What could he do with 500+ ABs and a steady diet at one defensive position?

The other side of this question is what would you do with the money you save in not extending Michael Conforto?  Well, there’s pitching to consider.  Syndergaard, Stroman, Wacha, Porcello, Wilson and others are all slated to leave next year or sing their swan song in 2021.  Right now in baseball good pitching is much harder to find than good hitting.  Might it be smarter to lock up the shorter supply of decent arms while making do with solid bats like Davis?  Also remember that if Brandon Nimmo is indeed your centerfielder and you trade away Conforto, then there is an opening for LF.  Does it go to also defensively-challenged Dom Smith?  What about Jeff McNeil with room on the infield opening up for Andres Gimenez?  What about a fresh face from outside the organization?

I know everyone is always against trading away homegrown players, but from a business perspective does it make more sense to lean on the very inexpensive bat of Davis and let someone else both pay for Michael Conforto AND give you resources in return?

Fire away.