On Friday, the New York Mets claimed relief pitcher Heath Hembree off waivers from the Cincinnati Reds. After a rough start to the season, it looked as though Hembree was putting things together in June and July. However, a 19.29 ERA in 4.2 innings pitched in August finally forced Cincinnati's hand. Overall this season, he has an unsightly 6.38 ERA across 42.1 IP.
Despite having such a high ERA, Hembree possesses the tools of a good reliever. More specifically, he has been able to strike out batters almost at will. His 14.46 K/9 ranks 6th-best out of 161 qualified relievers. Hembree has had control issues, though, allowing 4.04 free passes per 9 innings this season. Over the last 4 seasons, he has averaged 3.95 BB/9, but if Hembree can continue striking out batters at a high rate, it would neutralize his command problems. Even this year, Heath has the 11th-best K/BB ratio at 27.4%
Hembree gets so many strikeouts primarily because of his slider, which has been phenomenal this year. Hembree never relied on his slider too heavily, and in 2019 it only comprised 16.2% of his pitches. Since then, the slider has seen more and more action and now makes up 48.2% of Heath's offerings. It has a good spin rate and averages 8.8 inches of horizontal break, 83% more than the average slider. It is a tantalizing option for right-handers that eventually breaks far off the plate, becoming unhittable. That's certainly apparent when looking at how right-handed batters have fared against him. In 2021, righties have hit just .144/.259/.289 in 112 PAs, striking out 47 times and walking 13 (good for an excellent 30.4 K-BB%).
Heath also had the misfortune of playing half of his games in the bandbox known as Great American Ballpark. His home ERA is 8.55, with opposing hitters owning a .259/.333/.568 line against Hembree. From 2019-2021, batters and pitchers who played at both GABP and other stadiums saw 27% more home runs at GABP, the highest in baseball in that span. Hembree would surely agree; of his 10 home runs, 7 of them have come in Cincinnati, giving him an unsustainably high 22.6% HR/FB. Going to a much more pitcher-friendly environment in Citi Field should lower all of those numbers.
The combination of Hembree's impressive K/BB ratio and high HR/FB ratio gives him a much nicer 3.59 xFIP. Similar to FIP, xFIP removes the defense, luck, etc from a pitcher's performance, but instead of using a pitcher's actual home run rate, it uses an expected one based on the number of fly balls allowed and the league average HR/FB rate. In general, xFIP tends to be a better indicator of a pitcher's future performance than FIP and most other stats.
Hembree certainly has the makings of an effective bullpen contributor, and at the very least he seems like a better option than the quad-A pitchers that have been getting plenty of work over the last few weeks. At this point in the season, the Mets can definitely afford to take a chance on Hembree if it means that he could improve a struggling ballclub.
3 comments:
I hope readers appreciate posts like this one.
Many glance at a pitcher's ERA and move on.
They shouldn't.
An interesting look at a guy who, on first glance, looks like a wasted pick up.
Sometimes a new environment helps a lot. Sometimes, it helps a lot if it is also player-friendly.
I am an xFIP. I used to be Funny In Person, but with COVID, all in person FIP has turned to xFIP
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