With my crazy schedule planning and building ramps for the disabled, tending to the ever growing lawn and garden, and continuing on with my new-found COVID hobby of playing golf, I haven't had the (taken the?) time to ramble about the Mets since before the trade deadline. A lot has happened since, not much of it good.
First. The trade deadline. My grade on that is F+. Is there such a thing? In a post I wrote a year or two ago, I stated that my rule (if I am the front office) is to not trade your number 1 draft pick before moving him through the system for at least three years. Well, that got broken again in a hurry. Maybe Pete Crow-Armstrong was a Brodie regime pick, but he was the best outfield prospect in the system. Trading him for a half year of a high strikeout, low average hitter, albeit an electric player when playing well, just was not my idea of the right move.
Javier Baez was not the guy I wanted. I was hoping for Kris Bryant. Apparently Baez is excited to play next to Lindor, but it doesn't do anybody any good to have them next to each other on the IL. Trevor Williams is OK, but not #1 pick worthy. So far Baez is hitting .167 in his short stint and being that this is the Mets, went on the injured list not long after arriving. He did hit a couple homers and had a showman slide home, but sustained production is what is needed.
Next. The KumarRocker saga. The draft signing deadline has come and gone and the Mets did not sign their #1 draft pick. It is impossible to know the full story of (a) why Rocker who was an anticipated top 3 pick most of the year fell to #10 behind guys like Frank Mozzicato and Benny Montgomery, and (b) why he did not sign. It is hard to believe that a 22 year old pitcher with his talent is damaged beyond repair. If it was elbow or shoulder issues, they can be fixed. Did Boras screw that one up? Should they have let him go like the Royals and Angels did? All I know is that nobody won in that one - neither the Mets nor Kumar Rocker. And I also know that when he fell into the lap of the Mets, I was jumping for joy. Silly me. (I was actually hoping they would draft Sal Frelick, but ...). Also I was surprised that James Wood fell to #60. He was a guy that was really interesting to me and thought he'd be worth a 2nd round pick. I don't know if it is fair or not, but with his being 6'6" or more, my thoughts turned to a Darryl Strawberry type player.
Lastly, the baseball itself. Since the first of August the Mets are 5 and 12, including today's win in San Francisco to stop a 5 game slide. Three of the five wins were against the Washington Nationals, who traded half their active roster at the end of July and are playing out the string in 2021. Also, since August 1, the Braves have played to a 12-3 record, resulting in an 8 game swing - from leading by 3.5 to trailing by 4.5, falling into third behind the Phillies as well.
So, the question of the day is: Do they still have a pulse? Can they turn this around? To me, those answers are 'yes', and 'probably not'. They are still pitching fairly well - Marcus Stroman does not deserve to be 8 and 12 - but this is a terrible offensive team. All year everyone has been saying they are in a team slump and they will break out of it. It got late real early for that. Their team OPS (on base percentage + slugging) has been over .700 for just 18 days this entire season. That is over 120 games. And it has fallen .006 this month. They are not breaking out of it. Rumor has it that both Lindor and Baez will be back shortly, but will that fix everything?
Brandon Nimmo has three home runs, J.D. Davis has four. When Jonathan Villar, who was a great bench signing, is second on the club with 14 dingers after 120 games, something is not right. It is hard to win without scoring runs, as we have seen too much lately. They must also break the skid of getting into an 0-2 or 0-3 (or even 0-6) hole early in the games. They have not been a good early game team. A few first or second inning 3-0 or 4-0 leads would really help the pitchers out.
On the pitching side, it has been nice to see them actually start five starting pitchers in the rotation a few times through, although getting Carrasco back hasn't been the magic bullet (yet). Megill has been a great find and looks to be a keeper going forward. I really hope Walker's recent struggles (comparing to his early year success) are not spin related. But not seeing Loup start ballgames has been nice. Rich Hill is a marginal improvement over Jerad Eickhoff, but I am afraid he does not have much left (unless he goes back to Tampa, where he would excel again).
Their bullpen has been getting too much work all year. They have really done an admirable job holding things together, but they need more innings from the starters.
Schedule-wise, the next seven games are against the Dodgers and Giants. A repeat of the 1-5 record of the last seven days may just bury them too deeply to recover. They do have 15 games against the Nats and Marlins (8 and 7, respectfully) down the stretch, so that could help, but they also have series against the Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Brewers and Phillies. They need to win at least 28 of their last 42 games to get to 88 wins. Atlanta needs 24 of 42 for that same number. A tall order and tough task, but the pulse, while faint, is still there. They must win the division to get to the playoffs. They do not have a shot at a wildcard.
All for now. Remember's next rambling will not take three weeks to get done, and will be an opinion piece on "What to do for '22". There has been some excellent chatter on this topic on various chats and articles - I'll throw my words into the hat by next week.
5 comments:
Remember 1969, many good points. Pete Crow, if fully repaired, was one of my favorite prospects, and we traded him for a ceiling fan. I did not like it, and only would have liked it if Baez sparked them. Bad move.
Hindsight.
The question is.
Would you feel the same way if we had a 10 lead in the loss column
Very nice piece by Remember 1969. I strongly agree with his comment, "Trading him (PCA) for a half year of a high strikeout, low average hitter, albeit an electric player when playing well, just was not my idea of the right move.
As for the pitching, 1969 let them off to easily. When you have an OPS below .700, you can only win with a staff ERA under 3.0 - almost unattainable with a back half of an aging Hill, Carrasco, and a declining Walker. Our dream of deGrom, Stroman, Syndergard, Walker, and Carrasco (as he used to be) is unfulfilled, and is the only thing that will turn the season from hope into reality.
I am also disappointed in the starting pitching, particularly in the injuries (deGrom, Peterson, Lucchesi, etc.) and the delays in return (Syndergaard, Carrasco). If Syndergaard and Carrasco had come back as expected, they wouldn't have need to throw Hill and Eickhoff (and others) out there.
With that said, I will stand by my thought that it is the offense, not the pitching, that is bringing this team to its crash landing. More early game runs and better hitting with RISP (I wish I had the time to really research their K's and DPs in those situations) would have kept this team on top.
Mack, I'm a bit confused by your comment . . not sure what you mean by "hindsight" in this context.
If the Mets were 10 games ahead in the loss column, that means one of two things: Either they have played a lot less games than the other team, or they are ahead in the standings. If the former, and the Braves were 65-60 and the Mets were 50 and 50, I would not be nearly as pessimistic about the outcome. I think that if Lindor and Baez can both come back and get things rolling a bit, they can make up 5 to 10 games to .500. The Braves just had their hot streak and as somebody posted earlier still have series against the mighty west (and also the Yankees), they will probably not run away with it. But as they have both played about the same number of games, I am pessimistic about the Mets chances, based on the season's historical look. They haven't hit all year, there is not much reason to think they will just turn it around on a dime and become the 1927 Yankees (or even the 2021 Astros). Four and a half games is a bunch to make up when playing the brand of bad baseball they have been playing. They are ten games under .500 in the last two months. Not a good team.
Post a Comment