3/11/23

Tom Brennan - DH Output Will Rise; Genius Pitching Guidance; Insane Movement


A Svelte Daniel V Should Have More Spring in His Step & His Bat

Last year, an awful lot went great for the Mets.

DH, though? Not so great.

Baseball Reference breaks out all DH plate appearances in total. 

In 2022, Metsies’ DHs? 

.218, with 18 HRs and 83 RBIs, in 673 PAs.

.218 is pretty sucky. The rest of the Mets team hit .265.

DH Dodgers? .255, 27, 100. Huge gap.

DH Yankees? Off year average wise, but .196, 39, 103. More lethal.

(83 Mets’ DH RBIs seem pretty high, until you realize they had so many dudes to drive in for 2022, then 83 seems not so high)

Mets at DH can (and will) do better in 2023.

Why? 

NOT TO BE TAKEN LIGHTLY…

They will have a svelte Daniel Vogelbach for a full season, for one thing.

Lost a ton of weight, bet he’ll be a spry kind of guy.

Vogelbach is projected by Baseball Reference to slash 231/.341/.404 with 15 HRs, 52 RBIs in 456 PAs. I think his new svelte physique will cause those numbers to be well understated.

After all, at a clearly impeding weight, he still hit .255/.393/.436 as a Met. If he gives me that slash line in 2023, I will be elated. And I think he can.

If Mr. Svelte gets injured, heaven for big, at some point?  

Brett Baty slides right in with an equivalent, if not better, slash. Nice.

And Dom Smith was a putrid hitting lefty DH in 2022. Which got him a ticket out of town. (Knowing you are incessantly curious, since you are a reader on this fabulous blog site, Mr. Dom, thru Monday’s spring action, was 4 for 11, with a HR and 3 RBIs which, when projected over 550 at bats, is .364, 50 HRs and 150 RBIs. Uh-oh.)

Back to reality….Righty Mets DH hitters underwhelmed, too, with Ruf, Davis and neophyte Vientos collectively (among others) hitting poorly.  My sense still is Alvarez, Vientos, and Escobar will get quality righty DH at bats. I think they collectively will decidedly outhit their 2022 righty DH counterparts.

Better lefty hitting and better righty hitting at DH = DH improvement. I like improvement.

KNOWING ONE’S LIMITATIONS

While on the subject of Daniel V, he has never been caught stealing in the majors. He has never stolen a base, either. Zero for Zero. He has, however, and for the record, 15 of 27 in steals in his minors career, your honor. Enter those remarkable stats into the record. Yes, your honor, he has stolen, and been caught stealing, before. I recommend leniency.

It does show, your honor, that Inspector Javert had it wrong in Les Miz, when he exclaimed, “ Once a thief, always a thief.” 

Daniel has given up thievery. Sticking to bludgeoning baseballs is enough. 

Over the fence, with plenty of slow trots circling the base paths, is OK with me.

OUCH! THANK YOU!

Mark Canha welcomes HBPs as a way of getting on base. 55 times, in fact, over the last two years. “Ouch, baby, very ouch!”

Once every 5 games, and he led his league both seasons.

He boosts his OBP, one baseball stitch at a time. Keep getting plunked and on base, Mark. Why fly out to the edge of the warning track when you can get drilled and head to first base instead, right?


HALL OF FAME COACHES ARE THE BEST

In a NY Post article, Justin V. is watching a side session by David Peterson, making pointers to improve.  It cites JV coming to mound to point out a grip to improve his ball's sink.  He tries it, the pitch is nasty, and JV is excited!  No doubt, David was, too.  Great to have great pitchers like Verlander and Scherzer who share their brilliance with the rest of the staff, my guess is in greater quantities of advice and encouragement than a now-former Mets star hurler.  Great advice = greater success.

INSANE STUFF

Lots of guys throw hard. Bryce Montes de Oca (BMDO) does, breaking 100 MPH regularly.  But we've all seen the guy who throws 100 with a super-straight fastball.  That is not BMDO.  His ball is traveling 100+ with insane movement like I have never seen.  The Post showed a Twitter clip of a strikeout pitch to Andres Gimenez.  Over 100 MPH.  It started out as if it was going to split the heart of the plate.  Ron Darling noted that, and also noted that the severe reverse lateral movement on it caused the pitch to end up a foot outside, so it moved close to 2 feet.  I ain't never seen nuthin' like it - except to say that pitch looked like an RA Dickey knuckler but 20 MPH faster.

Watch for yourself. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/nkAUKyidQZ

11 comments:

Mack Ade said...

No mention of the Wyatt hit yesterday???

You're slippin.

Mack Ade said...

I appreciate your positivity regarding Oca. I really do, but I think the vet experience of both Coonrod and Curtiss will beat out the kiddies this start of the season.

Woodrow said...

Oca? Maybe he breaks camp and gets a shot at 7th inning.

Rds900 said...

Oca? Sounds like what you would call a whale.

Mack Ade said...

Look

I know it looks like the bullpen is shaping up really well this spring but let's remember pitching in LATE INNING SPRING GAMES means you are mostly facing minor league hitters

Tom Brennan said...

Yep, Wyatt is hitting .333 this spring. If somehow a slew of infielders got hurt and was playing full time for the Mets in 2023, I bet he’d not hit .333, but would hit above .233. No room for him.

Tom Brennan said...

Mack, that pitch Oca fanned Gimenez, a great hitter, on was simply unhittable by a human being.

Started out 101 heading for the heart of the plate. Darted 20 inches to finish a foot outside. Hitters’ strategy with him may have to be, “I can’t hit THAT filthy crap, so let me just take pitches and hope they leave the strike zone.” At which point, he’ll have to adjust.

Can he throw with less sever movement when the count reaches 3 balls? He will have to.

If all the relievers had options, he’d be a huge candidate to go north. My guess is because of several “out of options” guys and Rule 5 Greene, and with Bryce having multiple options left, he is headed to Syracuse…but not for long.

Tom Brennan said...

But this article was mainly about our DH improvemt over 2022, I just added Bryce because I could picture Nolan Ryan watch that Gimenez pitch and thinking, “oh, @&/+=“

Tom Brennan said...

Conrad in 2020-22 has allowed 49 runs in 70 innings. I have to therefore think he is AAAA, and will be called up as needed, but already age 30, so I am highly skeptical.

Mack Ade said...

Brooks Raley scratched from WBC

Hamstring

Tom Brennan said...

I don’t understand hamstring injuries. Stopping regular throwing motion activity in off season and then resuming seems a likely cause.