Mack - Draft News

CLICK HERE -2023 MLB Draft: The Top 614 Prospects 

 

CLICK HERE - 2023 MLB Draft: CBN's Independence Day Mock Draft

 

Matt Collier  (@reillocity) 

Concerns with Dylan Crews inside aren't isolated to how well an exit-velocity-dependent approach and swing that has produced unparalleled college success translates to pro baseball. 

Perhaps the biggest of the rest are how this degree of demanding personality responds to batting… 

 

Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) 

Huntington Beach C/1B Raffaele Velazquez is getting considerable Top-40 chatter and looks like a reasonably good bet to go before the 2nd round. I recently received an Adam Lind comp on him from a veteran x-checker. 

Kid can really hit. 

 

CLICK ON -College Bats 

 Dylan Crews, OF — LSU

FSS PLUS Rank: 1

Pillars: Extremely low chase rates, Efficient launch angle dispersion, Short path to the ball. Athleticism.

Comp: Andrew McCutchen 

Crews is a premium prospect with a premium comparison. At this late-stage in McCutchen’s career, he’s a borderline hall of fame player with close to 52 fWAR over 15 seasons. Here are some similarities: 

Since his debut, McCutchen has had one of the keenest eyes of any outfielder in the game featuring low chase rates year in and year out, including five seasons with a chase rate south of 22 percent.

In 2015, at his peak, McCutchen ranked among the Top 10 hitters in baseball in Sweet Spot%. Crews is a barrels and launch angle machine.

Both are roughly 6-0, 200 lbs

McCutchen began his career as a solid centerfielder with plus speed. Crews will likely do the same, although he’s more of an above average runner. McCutchen also likely used his legs on the bases more than Crews will.

McCutchen never had double-plus power, and neither does Crews. But because of their bat path and patient nature, they take mistakes and do damage. At his peak, McCutchen was a guy who posted a ton of .280/.380/.480 campaigns with roughly 25-28 homers per year. That’s about the expectation for Crews. 

 

Wyatt Langford, OF — Florida 

FSS PLUS Rank: 2

Pillars: 70-grade raw power, patience, vicious attack angle and bat speed, foot speed

Comp: George Springer 

Another premium comparison, Langford doesn’t have the same 6-foot-3-inch frame that George Springer does, but their play style should end up similar both in terms of capabilities on the field and production on the back of a baseball card. Over ten seasons, Springer has been worth about 33 fWAR, leveraged by 228 career homers. 

Springer has always been a patient hitter at the plate ranking inside the 80th percentile for chase rate since 2017. He’s also routinely in the upper-third for walk-rate.

The game power is considerable. Springer topped out at 39 HR in 2019, but has averaged close to 30 homers per year in seasons he’s played at least 122 games.

Some style similarities in the stride ambush nature when the situation calls for it.

At his peak, Springer floated on the fringes between a plus and double-plus runner. That’s where Langford fits.

Springer probably has a tick better arm, though both players are physically capable of handling all three outfield spots.

Langford projects to have a tick better bat-to-ball skills than what Springer has shown thus far.

Early-career Tommy Pham is a really solid comparison for Langford as well, and probably a more fitting comp. That said, his flash was short-lived and Langford should have more longevity. 

 

Jacob Gonzalez, SS — Ole Miss 

FSS PLUS Rank: 8

Pillars: Extremely high contact rates. Open hips. Bigger body for the position. Solid power projection.

Comp: Carlos Guillen 

Gonzalez is a very tough player to compare anyone to as his movement patterns and play style are unique. He deploys a wide-open stance and throws his hips before his shoulders. Gonzalez avoids “stepping in the bucket”, but his unconventional operation lives on its own. This is likely a fringy defensive shortstop who will make his money in his career with the bat. A la, Guillen. 

This was a tough one, and it was built more on style than production.

Guillen’s career featured a wide-open stance from the left side with quick hips and pull-side power. He was a switch-hitter, but his impact was from the left side.

He was an above average hitter who used the whole field.

Guillen was never a showstopper on defense, but he was solid. Gonzalez probably a bit fringier at the position, but some similarities.

Guillen was listed at 6-foot-1, 205-pounds during his peak, Gonzalez is currently listed at 6-foot-2, 205-pounds. He’ll likely end up playing a bit bigger than Guillen, and may be moved to third base.

Both were purely average runners and stolen bases were never a huge part of their game, except for a year or two in Detroit toward the back-half of Guillen’s career.

Guillen was a career 111 wRC+ guy, and a 115-120 wRC+ bat in his prime. That’s about where one could see Gonzalez. A 20 homer per year type of guy with low strikeouts and lots of double at his peak.

 

Jacob Wilson, SS — Grand Canyon 

FSS PLUS Rank: 9

Pillars: ELITE bat-to-ball skills. Long frame. Bloodlines. Potential for budding power.

Comp: Nico Hoerner 

This isn’t a great comparison as Wilson has three inches on Hoerner and does have the potential to grow into a bit more power than what Hoerner has shown thus far. It may be a bit of a limited ceiling, but the floor and the impact that can be made at the top of a lineup here has value. 

Hoerner one of baseball’s best contact hitters.

Defensively, Hoerner has shown well at shortstop, but better bouncing around infield. Advocates of Wilson believe in the shortstop, but he may ultimately bounce around the dirt a bit in his career as well.

Power has been slow-developing for Hoerner in his career. Peaked at 10 homers in 2022. 16 career. The consensus does not expect Wilson to be a power hitter.

Hoerner has posted extremely low strikeout rates for the era. Wilson should be more of the same.

Hoerner is a league-average offensive contributor, but an 80-grade leader in the clubhouse. Wilson is revered for his clubhouse manner.

Wilson presents more projection in the frame, but Hoerner’s output is the likeliest outcome for a player like Wilson. 

 

Kyle Teel, C — Virginia 

FSS PLUS Rank: 11

Pillars: Fantastic in-zone bat-to-ball, huge athleticism behind the plate, above average runner, considerable raw power, left-handed hitting catcher

Comp: B.J. Surhoff 

Finding an athletic left-handed hitting catcher with some of the traits that Teel possesses is next to impossible. From the right side, guys like Russell Martin immediately come to mind, but Teel’s left-handedness is a legitimate asset. Surhoff was a foundational piece in Milwaukee in the late 80s, and an anchor behind the plate. He’d end up hitting for more power once he arrived to Baltimore, ultimately finishing his career with 188 homers. 

Both Teel and Surhoff are/were considered gritty as hell. Guys who left it all on the field.

Like Teel, Surhoff was a fantastic athlete early in his career. He stole 141 career bases. Teel could rack up 100 if he chooses to run.

Surhoff was a well-above average defender behind the plate early in his career.

In the second-half of his career, Surhoff would peak in the power department, hitting 20-25 bombs per year.

Teel will strikeout more than Surhoff, but Surhoff posted above average contact rates for his career.

A perfect comparison in today’s game does not exist for Teel. Gregg Zaun is another reasonably solid comparison, as is Russell Martin, but the latter was right-handed. 

 

Tommy Troy, 2B — Stanford 

FSS PLUS Rank: 14

Pillars: Thick, strong body. Huge raw power. Underrated athleticism and speed. Short, quick to the ball with compact violence. Bat-first second baseman

Comp: Bret Boone 

Bret Boone was a slugging second baseman during his days in Seattle. During his Mariners days, he routinely played in the 190- to 200-pound range on his 5-foot-10-inch frame. From 2000-2004, a five-year span, Boone averaged 28 homers and 10 stolen bases per year, running a .285/.343/.488 slash in the process. He was a bat-first second baseman who could be deployed in the middle of a lineup. 

Boone hit 252 home runs in his career and stole 94 bags. He was an above average-to-plus runner early in his career, something Troy should be able to replicate with his speed.

Power-first second baseman with all-fields juice.

Largely average at second base for his career with short, choppy steps. Reliable, not flashy.

Both are thick, strong, sturdy-built frames with extremely quick hands and compact paths through the zone.

  

Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF — Vanderbilt 

FSS PLUS Rank: 16

Pillars: Huge speed, fantastic glove, slasher swing, elite eye at the plate, lean frame, leadership qualities, sneaky power

Comp: Kenny Lofton 

Kenny Lofton was one of the premier defenders and base-stealers of his generation. That pretty much what proponents of Bradfield see in the Vanderbilt centerfielder. They have extremely similar physical frames and Bradfield should end up emulating Lofton’s career play-style. 

Lofton stole 622 bags in his career, 70 at his single-season peak. Bradfield may be able to nab 50+ early in career.

Both feature elite chase rates and elite contact rates. Lofton never struck out and was above average in terms of walks most years.

Both have slasher mentality, keeping the barrel in the zone for an extended period, using the entire field well.

Lofton peaked at 15 HR, that’s about what I’d forecast Bradfield to do. Like a guy who runs into 8-12 home runs per year in his best years.

Lofton widely regarded as one of the best defenders in centerfield of his era. Bradfield should do the same. 

 

Matt Shaw, 2B — Maryland 

FSS PLUS Rank: 18

Pillars: Elite exit velocities for his position, doesn’t chase, electric hands, fringy glove and arm, strong, stout frame

Comp: Brian Dozier 

Matt Shaw has lightning quick hands and Dozier made a whole career out of turning around velocity in the strike zone. He was a power-hitting second baseman in an era where power didn’t come easily to that position. Shaw projects one of the more potent offensive threats at the position when he debuts. 

Dozier put some absolutely mammoth swings on pitches and ended up with 192 HR for a 2B

Both are 5-11. Dozier ended career at 205. Shaw likely makes debut closer to 195

Quick, compact hands through the zone

Kept strikeouts awfully low for most of his career. Shaw should do the same.

Dozier stole 105 bags in his career. Shaw has strong instincts and a good first step. Likely to be a base-stealer early in career.

Dozier a tick above average with the glove. Shaw could be that at 2B. 

 

Brock Wilken, 3B — Wake Forest 

FSS PLUS Rank: 19 

Pillars: Incredibly passive at the plate with hugely low chase rates. Mammoth raw power. Fly ball oriented. Huge frame, huge arm.

Comp: Rhys Hoskins 

Hoskins has built an entire career on his passive approach and fly-ball approach. He’s a power-oriented first baseman who uses his large frame well to post huge exit velocity readings. He picks his spots carefully, much like Wilken. 

Hoskins has been one of the more patient, cerebral hitters in baseball since his debut with low chase rates and low swing rates.

Wilken has more raw power than Hoskins, but both figure to be power-first corner infielders.

Both have big, physical frames. Hoskins is 6-4, 245, Wilken will likely debut close to 6-4, 235.

Wilken could play 3B, but there’s definitely a chance he moves across the diamond due to his physicality.

Both are extreme fly-ball oriented hitters.

Another solid comparison is CJ Cron, though Wilken possesses a more keen eye at the plate. 

 

Chase Davis, OF — Arizona 

FSS PLUS Rank: 21

Pillars: Huge pull-side power, sweet left-handed swing, big arm, corner profile, some contact concerns

Comp: Carlos Gonzalez 

This may be the best comparison on this entire list, though it might ultimately end up being the most off the mark too. While Davis and Gonzalez look exactly the same in terms of the swing and the play style, Davis is more of a slugger. Still, this fruit hangs too low not to take. 

Gonzalez was a better runner than Davis.

Gonzalez peaked at 40 HR in a single season and was always good for about 25 per year during his heyday.

Davis has better arm than what Gonzalez had.

Gonzalez was a high strikeout guy. Davis used to be a high-strikeout player until this year. He cut those numbers considerably in 2023. So that said, his career track record suggests swing and miss could still be a part of his game.

Gonzales was an above average career hitter with three seasons over .300… Davis had a big year in 2023 and if he can repeat this output in pro ball, he has a chance to post some impressive slash lines in his career. 

 

Brayden Taylor, 3B — Texas Christian 

FSS PLUS Rank: 24

Pillars: Extremely low chase, above average raw power, sweet swing, good runner/athlete

Comp: Chase Headley 

Headley was a bit of a late bloomer, but came on strong as one of the Padres top prospects. His athleticism allowed him to play some outfield in the minor leagues, and Taylor could end up shifting around the field a bit too. Headley struggled to handle breaking balls in the strikezone early in his career, something Taylor is currently dealing with. 

Headley was a star at Tennessee and built a pro career off low chase rate and a sweet left-handed swing (he was a switch hitter).

A good athlete early in his career, stealing 57 bags from 2009-2012. Taylor should run a bit more in pro ball.

Headley peaked at 31 HR in 2012, but routinely hit 12-14 HR per year. Taylor should be a power-over-hit type of guy with low chase rates buoying his batting average and on-base numbers.

In-zone contact rates were largely fringy to average most years for the Padres, though they improved later in his career.

Another reasonably good comparison is Kyle Seager, who built a career on passivity at the plate and a grooved HR swing with a solid glove at third base. 

 

Geoff Pontes (@GeoffPontesBA) 

Since 2018, only three college hitters have had a season with a 90thEV above 108 and a SO/BB below 1: 

Chase Davis, 2023

Dylan Crews, 2023

Nick Kurtz, 2023 

Chase Davis is going to be a great pick for someone next week. 

 

CLICK ON -  2023 MLB Draft player preview: Aidan Miller 

Miller is coming off of a down season which is largely due to a broken hamate bone. An injury to the hamate bone is well known for zapping a player's offensive production, power especially, for the remainder of their season. The injury makes him a tough evaluation because scouts almost have to throw out his senior season and judge him off of his 2022 season when he was 18, which is the age most high school draftees are seniors. It should be noted though that the hamate bone is not an injury that is going to raise medical red flags or anything of that nature.