Somehow lost in this mix is the state of the Mets starting rotation now with the news this week dropping that the questionable QO to Luis Severino is not going to be accepted as the big man is looking to obtain a greater windfall in multiple years rather than a huge push in 2025 alone.
Hmmm…well, on the plus side, refusing the QO does leave the Mets with a draft pick from the obtaining team. On the minus side it leaves them with Kodai Senga, David Peterson, maybe Tylor Megill and maybe Jose Butto as a starting rotation.
Severino was an interesting first year gamble for David Stearns. He came in at a price that was by standards today a reasonable $13 million. While he was not the strikeout type of pitcher he sometimes showed with the Yankees, he reinvented himself as a pitcher who used the entire plate and for the most part could be expected to deliver 6 quality innings per start.
When the word came down that the Mets were offering him a $20 million plus QO, it was a little confusing as his 3.91 suggested he was a decent 3rd or 4th starter but was being offered second starter money. In a way I was like David Stearns hoping that he would grasp a multiyear deal elsewhere instead of taking the high 2025 salary from New York with no guarantees beyond this upcoming season.
Now, to be fair, we hear a lot of reporting this time of the year which should be classified as fiction, yet the story seems to have wings and if he leaves I don’t think anyone will shed too many tears (particularly not Tylor Megill). The Mets need pitching in the worst way and after a hopefully healthy Senga and continued health from David Peterson it’s a whole lot of uncertainty.
For now it would appear there are many lower level pitching possibilities out there like Walker Buehler, ex-Met Jose Quintana and others who could fill in some of the holes in the rotation assuming that one of the big guns may or may not be added to fill out the top of the starting five.
While everyone is indeed focused on pitching, let’s not forget the outfield dearth that needs to be addressed, the DH slot which is non-existent right now, the Pete Alonso contract and a multitude of relief pitchers who need to be wearing orange and blue when the season begins.
The important baseball dates have been given. Decisions need to be made about tenders vs. non-tenders, accepting or declining QOs by free agents and the upcoming Winter Meetings when the general managers roll up their sleeves to get serious about trade possibilities and free agent signings. For now it’s still mostly uncertainty, but the windfall of payroll dollars for the upcoming season leaves most fans and media somewhat enthusiastic.
21 comments:
For all you I Phone AI fans out there, Siri is projected by Fangraphs to hit .206/.265/.383. Not much, but the defense and speed are supposed to be superior. In other words, he will hit like 2nd half Harrison Bader did, but at 20% of the salary. He won't, however, hit nearly as well as first half Harrison Bader. Gilbert should be better than Siri by mid-season, so Siri may just be a placeholder.
I don't blame Severino for wanting a multi-year deal. His 180 innings plus playoff innings look good on his resume to other teams needing pitching.
Could the QO shy others away from Severino opening the door for the Mets to resign him to a reasonable three contract to be a SP4 or SP5? Or a one year with an option allowing him to reenter next year without a QO? As Tom states, "looks good to a team that needs pitching" (like the Mets).
I think the QO put him in a tough situation.
Steve, very good point. You'd have to think teams would bid lower for him, as there is a cost to losing a high draft pick.
Steve, based on this, though, it would seem to be less of a deterrent, as it would involve a pick after the 4th round:
"Competitive Balance Tax payors: If the team that loses the player went over the CBT threshold, the compensation pick will be placed after the 4th round is completed. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case."
I am writing about Siri on Sunday
2 points
Only 2 players have ever had both the defensive results plus the speed he can generate... Bobby Witt Jr and Siri
Mad skills at covering right center that would allow Soto to hug the line and eliminate defensive errors out there
I think Sevy will get more years somewhere else but not at 20+mil a season
That I did not know
Yes, the Mets’ return is after the fourth round, but that’s not the signor’s penalty. The signor’s penalty is still their first or second highest pick. The previous team doesn’t get that pick, like it used to be. They just get “a pick”.
Mack, and in press conferences, Siri will have every answer. Kidding aside, defense matters, and if it makes Soto better defensively, all the better.
I just don't understand some of these QO rejections. Manaea yes, he can command more. But Severino should not be worth more than the QO in the FA market - he only had one good year and even that had its ups and downs. Re-sign him after he gets no offers for 12.9M. And Pete? The QO was a perfect opportunity to get the down season behind him and then re-test the market. Instead, he will get a payday that is nowhere near what it could have been.
Paul, in Severino’s case, the risk of injury is the need for more years. If he were to have a bad year or maybe get hurt again, now what is he getting next year? So, $21 plus $5 is less than what he might get now.
As for Pete, he is looking at his age and is reading all the things Tom is saying about him and knows that next year, going into age 32, his multi year deal is a little more difficult.
Being a pitcher means your chance for injury is pretty big.
With Siri and Taylor, the Mets have 2 outstanding defensive outfielder that cover a lot of ground. I too think this move was made with Soto in mind
Jon G, if only their bats would cover more of the strike zone.
I want to know what plan B is if we don't sign Soto. I'm torn because I want him but how could we use those dollars to better use elsewhere and I would hate to lose to the Yankees again. At least if Sterns has any questions he can ask Siri.
Gary, I was thinking about this yesterday. Stearns said that he wants to have “financial flexibility”. With the money they plan on spending this winter, can they? Will they ever reset their tax like the Dodgers did to avoid extra penalties? I looked all over MLB, and there isn’t any substitute for Soto anywhere out there. The only way to reset your cap while signing Soto is to trade for Crochet (even though Baltimore has way more and better prospects than the Mets do and also need an ace) and to sign Sasaki.
It appears that Stearns is proactive and takes pieces when he can, rather than waiting for everything to fall into place. That’s how I am viewing the Siri trade.
Isn’t Siri the second coming of Keon Broxton?
Time to stop fretting. Come opening day, the Mets will have a very solid rotation.
Tom, in Baseball Reference, that’s exactly who his comp is.
Gus, I am hoping for Siri to be Keon ++. We may however be just getting Keon II. I hated going thru Keon I.
In David We Trust! Or should, anyway, based on his track record of finding "hidden gems".
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