Reese Kaplan -- Part 2 of Why Not Signing Soto Could Be Good

Sometimes timing is everything.  I wrote and scheduled my Saturday article on Thursday regarding the cost of signing Juan Soto with the inclination that it may not be the best overall investment.  I didn’t expect many would agree with me among the readers here and the media. 

Lo and behold that on your Friday (my Saturday here in Malaysia) Mets former pitcher and broadcaster extraordinaire Ron Darling came out to say pretty much the exact same thing.  While he wasn’t disputing Soto’s level of talent nor even the overall expenditure commitment, he did question what would happen if signing Soto meant passing on Pete Alonso and missing out on some of the cream of the crop in the starting pitching ranks because of how much you would have to allocate to one guy. 

The issue for me here is kind of like how the Rangers spent big to get the best of the best in Jacob deGrom and then only enjoyed him over an aggregate of 9 games spread over his first two seasons there due to injury.  Injuries can happen at any age and with varying degrees of severity.  Take the Mets’ own Ronny Mauricio who had a doctor operate on his torn ACL which cost him most of the 2024 season until scar tissue that formed needed to be addressed which then cost him the rest.  He’s in his early 20s, younger even than Soto.

What Darling said in his question about Soto called to mind a similar argument I used to make with my partner when I played Fantasy Baseball.  If you spend $600 million on one guy does that mean you spend $6 each on the rest filling out your roster?  His more succinct way of putting it was wouldn’t the team benefit more from a pair of $300 million contracts than they would from a single one costing twice as much?  

I used to say I’d rather field a team of 20 HR and 80 RBI hitters at a moderate cost than one or two stars and also-rans for the rest because you ran out of funding.  Then if you lost one of those 20/80 hitters due to slump or injury, well, it’s not really all that hard to find a replacement.

Like I said, there was another prominent voice in the anti-Soto camp.  This time around it was none other than Jim Bowden who said he does foresee the Mets spending big — perhaps as much as $500 million this offseason, but not on Soto.  Instead he feels it would be better allocated for the return of Pete Alonso as well as starting stud pitchers Corbin Burnes and Max Fried. 

Think about that approach for a moment.  One one hand you lose out on Alonso and fail to address the widely vacant starting rotation but add Juan Soto.  On the other hand you bring back the same number of home runs and nearly as many RBIs with Alonso but at the expense of batting average, then add not one but two Cy Young caliber starting pitchers and you wind up saving $100 million.  Ummm...all of a sudden that allocation of Steve Cohen’s money no longer resembles the actions of a one-trick pony.

I was going to trot off in this direction with a variety of options to consider other than just Soto, but this start of the two ace pitchers and Alonso seems like a very good one.  It is also consistent with the Darling suggestion that two (or in this case three) big contracts for three talents is a better approach than putting it all one just a single player. 

Not getting Soto would feel very historically Mets from the Wilpon era.  You could already surmise what the “Well, we tried” press conference would be like when Soto stays in the Bronx, heads to Chavez Ravine or elsewhere.  However, adjust the script a bit to be not one but three celebrations when the Mets officially welcome three All Star level players to their roster instead of just one. 

All I’m really saying here is to keep an open mind.  Multiple new players for multiple new roles is not a crazy idea if the overall result strengthens the team.  Look at who else is out there in the free agent marketplace and play with your spreadsheet.  

It doesn’t have to be these three names or it could be four at a high but not quite as high level.  It simply means that alternatives to Soto shouldn’t only take place if Soto is not a Met.  They should be intelligently considered now in advance of whatever might happen.