Baty going deep in Syracuse (photo: Richard Nelson)
Brett Baty's career to date has disappointed most Mets fans, and very possibly himself, too.
The Mets were disappointed enough in him to demote him in 2024, after hoping he would blossom in 2023 and 2024.
He's been to the plate 602 times in the majors, collectively the equivalent of one full major league season, and has put up a slash line of just .215/.282/.325. Ouch.
I randomly decided to compare him to crushing Marcell Ozuna, who in 688 PAs in 2024, hit .302/.379/.546. Where do they diverge?
Brett Baty swung at just 155 first pitches (25.7%).
Ozuna swung at first pitches 220 times (32%). Big difference.
Had Baty swung at first pitches at the same rate as Ozuna, his 155 first pitch swings would instead have been 193 swings at first pitches. I think that is part of Baty's problem...he should be swinging at a minimum of 32% of first pitches, and probably more like 35% of his first pitches, a bit higher than Ozuna.
Why higher? Because Ozuna has the confidence to do better if he takes a first pitch strike. Swinging at 35% rather than 25.7% of first pitches would have had the struggling Baty swinging at not just 155 first pitches, but at 211 first pitches, or 56 more. I think he'd do more damage and avoid as many 2 strike counts, where he has been dreadful, as I will outline below.
Brett ended his 155 PAs on his first swing just 48 times (31%), but hit a solid .326/.333/.822 in those first 48 at-bat-finalizing swings. The other 69% of the times where he swings at the first pitch and doesn't conclude his at bato obviously indicates many swings and misses and fouls on that first pitch.
But on the 155 at bats where he swung on pitch one, and either concluded his at bat on that pitch or at a later count, he still just hit .200/.230/.317. Ozuna by comparison hit .335/.382/.626 in plate appearances where he swung at the first pitch.
I think those lousy Baty slash numbers could be a lack of true mental preparedness to do damage on the first pitch and first swing. Why?
Ozuna ended his at bats on the first pitch in just 63 of his 220 first pitch swings, a slightly worse % than Baty, but hit a nuclear .484/.492/.984 when he did finalize his at bat on the first swing, vastly higher than Baty.
For Baty, it seems that after that first pitch take or swing, he is readier to go, as in at bats that ended on 1-0 (40 PAs), he hit .350; ending on 2-0 (16 PAs), he hit .313; and on 0-1 counts, he hit a dandy .407 in 55 PAs.
Ozuna in roughly a slightly lower ratio of at bats ending on 1-0, 2-0, and 0-1, hit better (.359,.476/.744) because in good part due to his being simply a superior hitter.
But so far, this analysis mostly suggests that Baty needs to swing a lot more at first pitches and perhaps mentally be more prepared to do real damage on that first swing and not wait until a 1 strike count to get his get his hitting groove on.
Later in counts? Avoid 2 strike counts whenever you can.
After a count gets to 0-2, Baty in 146 PAs (24%) has hit just .114. Yes, just .114.
One huge reason right there why swinging more frequently at 0 strike and 1 strike pitches would help him.
In 342 PAs (56.8% of all his PAs) he reaches 2 strike counts, and has hit just .146/.224/.179. Brutal.
Ozuna gets to 0-2 far less (123 times in 688 PAs, or 18%) and handles those much better than Baty's .114, but still not well:
Ozuna in those 123 PAs is .226/.276/.296.
He reaches any count with 2 strikes (0-2, 1-2, 2-2, 3-2) 398 times (57.8%, very similar to Baty's 56.8%) and hits a .206/.310/.313, poor for him compared to his at bats that end on 0 or 1 strike. But much better than Baty.
A lot to wrap one's head around, but the best I can surmise, Baty needs to significantly up his first pitch swing rate from 25.7% to about 35%, and apparently needs to be ready to do more damage on that first swing, as his .200 average on his plate appearances where he swings at the first pitch shows something is amiss.
LEFTY V. LEFTY IS A BATY CHALLENGE:
I also wonder what a team like the Mets does to try to help a lefty hitter like Baty hit better vs. lefties. Baty in his career has hit just .173 vs. lefties. If I had a 1st round draft lefty hitter pick that I wanted to succeed, and realized how far fewer lefties a lefty hitter gets to face, as compared to the number of righty pitchers a righty hitter like Ozuna gets to face, I would (if allowable) hire a few journeyman lefties to pitch to him during the off-season. Practice, they say, makes perfect.
I acknowledge that Ozuna is a great hitter, and likely better than Baty ever will be, but I think some adjustments suggested above could help Baty move upwards towards at least being an average major league power hitter. His actual performance in his MLB career to date is far short of "average major league power hitter." A lot of us feel he has "average major league power hitter" potential - he just needs to somehow better tap into it.
HOT, THEN FRIGID:
Last year after his demotion to AAA, he was a house on fire in his first 3 weeks, hitting .367 with a .775 slug %. It felt to me at that time that a recall to the majors for him might be imminent. But he went frosty for the next 8 weeks, dropping from .367 to .243 against inferior AAA pitching, before finally reversing that downward spiral.
He started hot for a few weeks in the majors in both 2023 and 2024, and then fizzled, too.
I do not know why he starts hot and then really gets cold. Streaky? Nothing more than slumps? Pitches figure him out and he can't adjust? Lack of mental toughness? I do not know the answer to that "hot-to-frigid conundrum", but Brett needs to figure that out to succeed.
BRENT ROOKER:
I was all wrapped up on this article but then Brent Rooker of all people popped up in my mind.
In 146 games in 2024 for the As, Rooker hit a scintillating .293 with 39 HRs and 112 RBIs.
Wow!
So, I did it - I had to - I looked at his stats. And....Eureka!
Rooker was the anti-Baty on first pitch swings. Whereas Brett Baty has swung at just 25.7% of such first pitches in his plate appearances, the far more successful Rooker swung at FORTY FOUR POINT SIX PERCENT (44.6%) of first pitches in 2024! There HAS to be a success correlation there. He swings FAR MORE at first pitches - and had far more success.
So, Brett, let me revise my suggestion to you:
SWING AT 45% OF YOUR FIRST PITCHES.
In real numbers and not percentages, Rooker was up 614 times in 2024 and swung at the first pitch 273 times. Baty, again, in his career has been up a very comparable 602 times, but only swung at the first pitch 155 times! And their respective divergent results show the tale.
Brett, you may surprise yourself to find out that you can hit like Rooker, too.
Let me also point out that Rooker was first good in 2023 in his age 28 season, and then crushed it at age 29 in 2024. In 2021 and 2022 in the majors, at ages 26 and 27, he was awful: just .188 with tons of Ks in 249 PAs, but he adjusted, and now he put up an elite power season.
So Baty can emulate Rooker and reset his trajectory to a much steeper one.
Thoughts?
EXTREME STATS ARE EVERYWHERE FOR THE SQUATTERS:
Take variations in catchers' stats, for instance:
The Astros' catchers hit .290 last year, while Tampa and the White Sox were tied at .291 last year - except that their .291 was the latter 2 teams' catchers' OBP. The two teams' catchers hit .194 and .173 respectively last season. If you can say "hitting" is batting .173. "Missing" might be more appropriate.
And Oakland catchers hit .222, like the Mets' masked men did, but the A's catchers clocked 31 HRs, while Miami catchers hit just 6 (essentially one per month).
Six HRs aren't always so bad, though. Mets' catchers in 1980, by comparison, hit a nifty .269, but cracked exactly zero HRs in 603 at bats.
I have it on good word, though, that they hit a few out of the park in batting practice that year, when the wind was blowing out, of course.
And Twins' catchers fanned just 40 times in 1980; Angels' and Mariners' catchers, by comparison, each fanned 194 times in 2024. But Kevin Parada struck out at a higher per-game rate in AA than either of those two MLB-worst teams. That is pretty extreme, huh?
13 comments:
Ronny Mauricio is far harder to analyze as he only has had 108 Mets plate appearances. But in at bats that ended on 0 or 1 strike counts, he was 18 for 44 with 4 walks. When he got to any 2 strike count? Just 7 for 57(.123).
Pete Alonso swung at first pitches 174 times in 695 plate appearances, which is just 25% of the first pitches he sees. He went 25 for 73 in those first swings (.340). He had 340 at bats (nearly half) get to any count with 2 strikes, and hit .182/.269/.332. We've all seen Pete take many fat pitches on strike one. It seems the data suggests he should swing at a lot more first pitch strikes, so he won't have to face so many very, very nasty 2 strikes sliders and sweepers.
Last comparison: Vlad Guerrero got to 2 strike counts 15% less than Pete, and my guess is Vlad would have gotten that even lower if he struggled on 2 strikes, but where Pete hit .182/.269/.332 with 2 strikes in 48% of his 2 strike plate appearances, Vlad hit .259/.335/.399 in 42% of his at bats that reached 2 strikes.
Pete had counts that reached 2 strikes in 55% of his plate appearances, with 43 of those 383 PAs ending without an official at bat.
If I were Pete, I would look to lower that to 45%. Why? In counts that DON'T get to 2 strikes, he hits .314, vs. 182 on at bats with any count of 2 strikes.
Any reason for Baty not playing winter ball?
Tom, any thoughts of heading to Dallas to apply for that hitting coach job? This is great analysis with some very valid conclusions. Today's pitchers with the nasty sliders and sweepers are deadly once you get to two strikes.
Gary, they probably told Baty to stay home and not get hurt again.
R69, thanks. To me it jumps out. If Baty and Pete followed this, I think they hit 25 points higher. Which is significant. Let guys like Nimmo and Lindor and McNeil work the pitcher. They're competent to do that. Jett Williams probably will be, too. Some guys in my view should not be wasting first pitch strikes.
R69, here is a blast from the past: Manny Sanguillen. He was up 5400 times, walked just 223 times(4%!) and fanned just 331 times(6%!)
They didn't have those 0-0, 0-1 type stats counts back then, so I cannot do a similar comparison. But Manny swung at LITERALLY EVERYTHING - and he hit over .300 four times, hit .290 or more two other times, and hit .296 career, as a catcher!
Note to Vientos, Baty, Alonso: SWING EARLY AND SWING OFTEN - AND PROSPER GREATLY.
Tom, I understand your point, but usually as a fan watching, I don’t like swinging at the first pitch. I’ve seen too much weak contact that makes me wonder why the hitter didn’t wait to get a better one. But I have a theory:
After giving up a base runner, most pitchers (especially lesser accomplished ones) will look to quickly get ahead and risk having damage done. Those guys you can ambush. Otherwise, if there isn’t anyone on base, it is to the pitcher’s advantage if they can get you to chase a curve or slider at the corners or off the plate, so im not a supporter of that.
I believe that when a hitter is going good and really feels “hot” - confident - he can’t wait to get to the plate. But, those guys that haven’t been going good, have that automatic doubt set in that won’t let you attack a first pitch, because the hitter may “need to see this pitcher” first.
Gus, good points, but if I was the hitter, I'd want to swing at all meatballs and strikes that aren't on the black, rather than looking foolish over and over again on 2 strike sweepers and sliders off the plate. I think, in balance, the hitters will do much better.
Personally, I don't think it is about which pitch you swing at. It is about the approach. If you always swing at the first pitch, the opposition scouts that and throws you nothing to drive on that pitch. You should approach the plate with an idea of where the ball needs to be to do damage - a fraction of the strike zone. If you see it, hit it. Otherwise, take the pitch, learn something from the pitch movement, and then expand your window a bit and repeat. Anything that is predictable will be countered by the opponent and your batting average will suffer.
Paul, my point is to not swing at all first pitch strikes, but rather let no off-the-corner ones go by. If they hit the black, fine, the pitcher won "strike one", but don't swing if off the plate. Vientos, Baty and Alonso at 2 strikes combined get there at a large % of plate appearances and hit abysmally. Really abysmally. Even Rooker swings at 45% of first pitches, but not at the other 55%. So I am not saying 100%
Amazing stat du jour: The D Backs fanned just 1077 times in 2024, while Seattle fanned 548 more times with 1625 (Mets were 15th). I wonder if that is why Arizona hit 39 points higher than Seattle? I'd guess the answer is yes.
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