It is easy to forget that Francisco Alvarez, who has been around for a while now, will play all of 2025 as a mere 23 year old.
As a point of comparison, Pete Alonso debuted at 24.3 years of age.
Alvarez won't play his age 24 season until 2026.
Alvarez had a down year in 2024 in terms of power with 11 HRs in 308 at bats, as compared to 25 HRs in 382 at bats in 2023, his first relatively full season.
He did have that thumb injury that required surgery after he slipped and fell rounding first base early in the season, and who knows how that impacted him the rest of the way in 2024.
- He hit .296 in the first half of 2024, but just .187 in the second half.
So...
How do you think he will hit in 2025?
I present 3 theoretical scenarios - pick one, or tell us yours:
1. He remains perhaps confused and scuffles in 2025.
- 400 ABs, 12 HRs, 40 RBIs, .220
2. He realizes his raw power will create HRs, and becomes a line drive contact hitter:
- 450 ABs, 15 HRs, 65 RBIs, .265
3. He clicks into being a beast, alongside his buddies Soto, Vientos, and Lindor:
- 500 ABs, 33 HRs, 90 RBIs, .280
I'm going with Option 3.
Your thoughts?
Former Met Luis Castillo asks that you please reply before the ball drops.
16 comments:
Alvarez has always been someone that learns and improves. He will do so again, so I choose scenario #2.
I say closer to option #3 but with a lower BA, something like .255.
option 2.5. 24 Homers 80 RBI .260 BA
I'm with Tom. Scenario 3!
But why so few AB in all 3 scenarios? Barely 2/3 of most everyday players' ABs?
Sorry to say, I'll take door #1. He has done nothing to suggest he will adjust and do better offensively. I truly hope I am proven wrong and if so, I will gladly eat crow. I know his potential, but his swing is so out of control.
Now defensively he is awful. His one saving grace is that he calls a good game, and it seems the pitchers like him. But the other aspects of his catching are awful. How many times has he actually missed pitches because he insanely tries to frame a pitch that is 6 inches outside, and bring it to the middle of the plate. That one knee stance is ridiculous, he had the most passed balls of any catcher in the league. I speak from experience as a former catcher. Sorry guys I just don't see it.
I really hope I am wrong. We really need him to develop into a much better offensive player.
Happy New Year to all.
I agree with 1969. Better average, more homers and additional RBI's from 2024. Option 2.5 for me. I like this guy and look forward to a good year from him.
Bill, most catchers seem to sit a lot of games, with days off and injuries. Hopefully he gets 500 or more at bats.
JoeP, I think he started to get it in the playoffs. Hitting under control. I think he carries that over to 2025.
I have also been disappointed in defensive deficiencies but perhaps part of that is trying to go easier on the knee joints for a longer career. On that, you would know better than me. I know one thing: I can’t catch a break, I tell ya! It’s rough!
Only 5 catchers had 500+ at bats in 2024, and 14 had 400 or more. Francisco was 24th at 308.
Gus has Francisco with 2-3 infield hits all year, I am guessing. You may be right. But heck, even Lindor the Great hit just .273 last year, so .280 is wishful thinking..
Francisco in his career is .261 first half, but .180 second half. He sure needs to figure that out.
But how many were lost due to his thumb injury? If he's healthy (and PRODUCTIVE) this year, he should get at least 500+.
Alvarez, even pre-injury, was getting banged up pretty good behind the plate - he really needs to get that bare hand out of the way more consistently, as he took multiple shots to it even before “the slide”) which I think is somehow connected to his insistence on catching on one knee) looked like he was trying to hit the ball 600 feet with every swing. Maybe the thumb cost him some bat control, and he was overcompensating? In any case, after looking entirely lost (almost unplayable, really) down the stretch and well into the post-season, something finally clicked in the NLCS, and he began to put the ball in play the other way, and better AB’s and results followed. You mention Vientos, which I think is a good comp here. Vientos has said that the best advice he got was that he was strong enough to hit ‘em out to CF and oppo, and should stop trying to pull/crush everything. That was right, and he’s now looking like an elite bat. Alvarez needs to take the same advice. He’s plenty strong enough to get his HR while focusing on driving the ball primarily to the middle of the field. If he can internalize and execute that, I think he’s got a shot to be #3. If not, he may be a 25-30 HR .215 hitter who K’s and GIDP’s way too much.
All good points guys. Tom, yes he did start to hopefully figure things out toward the very end of the year. Love your Rodney reference.
Like I said I would gladly eat crow if he proved me wrong because we really need him to step up offensively.
Unfortunately, until I see this happen, I see him as 18/55/235.
What we really need from him is 20-25 HR/ 70-80RBI/ and a 260 BA. I could handle the passed balls, but that not catching pitches has got to stop.
Adam, I agree on the exposed hand. Gotta hide it.
I wrote that about Vientos advice-wise after watching him in the minors hit bombs to CF and RF. I hope the players see the advice in these MM articles and take the best and leave the rest. We may not be of the skill set of pro hitting instructors, but we do observe stuff. Sometimes it can be seeing the forest for the trees.
It is one reason why I campaign for 5-7 foot closer fences. You do not want Alvarez to fly to the wall in right center and think, screw that, I’m just going to pull. A little further in and the success rate goes up. When you are successful, you buy in.
Alvarez is like a sponge and will continue to improve. He will have a solid year and hit around 30 homes.
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