"We have breakage on aisle 12. Send a clean up crew. Aisle 17, too. Bring a mop.”
When constructing a roster, there will always be a degree of breakage that a David Stearns has to factor in and be ready to compensate for.
A lack of readiness to adapt could easily mean a lack of post-season appearance for the Mets.
So who got hurt in 2025?
Kodai Senga - missed all but one season outing and two rocky, brief post-season outings.
Tylor Megill - out for a while early in the season.
David Peterson - missed the first 2 months due to his pre-season surgery.
Drew Smith - the arm went POOF! in July. The TJS curse will cause him to miss 2025.
Brooks Raley - the arm blew up in early April after 7 brilliant innings.
Dedniel Nunez - after a surprisingly strong and successful debut, he missed the last several weeks.
Christian Scott - arm blew a TJS gasket in July - see you in 2026.
Sean Foley - just 22 innings due to assorted maladies.
Paul Blackburn - in August, a broken bone, then leaking spinal fluid, shelved him for the last several weeks.
Reed Garrett hit the IL for a while with a barking elbow.
In all, 35 pitchers were used by the Mets, nearly 3 times the size of the opening day pitching roster.
Bryce Montes de Oca was unable to return to the Mets in 2024 after his 2023 TJS, and possible MLB starter Max Kranick badly pulled a hamstring in spring 2024 and never made it up to the Mets.
Shintaro Fujinami missed time due to a shoulder injury and then had tremendous ups and downs in his AAA pitching quality, rendering him useless to the Mets in 2024.
Amidst all that disaster, Stearns did get a big starter break, as three Iron Men, Manaea, Severino, and Quintana, combined for 95 starts. But those 3 are free agents, and Severino has signed with the As.
On the hitting slate, not as drastic, infirmary-wise, but this happened:
JD Martinez missed the first month working out old veteran aches.
Jeff McNeil got plunked after a 44 post-All Star game offensive tear, and missed much of September and the post-season.
Frankie Alvarez slipped and fell rounding first on a weird play, and missed several weeks with thumb ligament surgery.
Iron Man Lindor wrenched his back in September and missed 10 games.
Starling Marte always misses a chunk of games. Chiseled but fragile.
Brett Baty missed a September recall due to his own broken hand.
And Ronny Mauricio missed the whole darned season with his MCL injury.
In the minors, (the now departed) Nate Lavender missed a clear-cut call up opportunity when he needed TJS in April, cancelling most of his 2024 season and part of his 2025.
And Vasil, Hamel, and Tidwell hit severe under-performance turbulence in AAA and never reached the majors in 2024. Will they be ready in 2025?
Top 15 prospects Ryan Gilbert, Jett Williams, and Jacob Reimer missed vast chunks of the 2024 minor league season, most likely costing Gilbert and Williams possible September call-ups.
Kevin Parada might have been a catching replacement for Alvarez when the latter got hurt, but Parada's development was far too slow, at best, and he was not even good enough when ALvarez went down to supplant either of the dreadful Nido/Narvaez tandem.
Why do I write all this?
Because all of this "drama", in totality, is what Stearns had to deal with in order to successfully navigate 2024.
Not just who got hurt, but who was, or was not, ready to be called up as replacements. Many deals and signings during the season occurred as a result.
It is entirely reasonable to expect, and plan for, a similar amount of turbulence in 2025.
Injuries and abysmal performance from some players are facts of baseball life for every team.
In that sense, at least on the offense side of the ledger, signing Soto and re-signing Alonso, both of whom almost never miss a game, when added to Francisco Lindor, who usually never misses games, would bring (most likely) a huge amount of stability to 1/3 of the line up, and Mark Vientos was very healthy throughout 2024, so that appears to be even more line-up stability there.
Pitching? You may well need 35 pitchers again. Where from?
Guys on the MLB roster right now, and in the minors who are likely to be ready for 2025 when a need arises? I'm guessing about 15 or so in total, so there is a lot of filling-in by Stearns that will need to happen.
Stearns of course can't just stroll down the produce aisle and load up the cart with usable talent. He has to compete with other teams to get it, when it is unavailable in the minors.
Stearns has a great job, but it is very, very challenging to undertake to get a team through much adversity to the post-season.
Feel free to comment on anything here, including thoughts on how you might bridge these likely 2025 gaps.
PROSPECTS THOUGHTS
Not deep and profound, but a few of my thoughts:
The Rays’ site said this about Nate Lavender:
“We’ve always liked him,” Rays assistant GM Kevin Ibach said. “Multiple pitches to get guys out, [we] like the fastball, like the deception that he provides from the left-hand side. Obviously would like a healthy version of the player, but this was an opportunity to get someone that we can take over the throwing program, get him into Spring Training and develop under our hood until he’s ready to take the mound again.”
Best wishes. Wish we kept him.
Vasil - I picked up on a “you can never have enough pitching just in case” vibe from them. So I would not be surprised to see him returned.
A LOOK AT THE METS TOP 30:
MLB Pipeline lists the 28 prospects in their Mets top 30 that actually produced stats last year. It currently breaks out to 22 hitters and 6 pitchers. The other 2 of the 30 are Ronny Mauricio and Jon Santucci. That is an incredible imbalance…23 hitters vs. 7 pitchers.
So do not be at all surprised to see Sproat, Tidwell, McLean, and Tong pitching for the Mets at varying points during 2025. But only under emergency circumstances before Memorial Day. The cupboard is pretty bare, again keeping in mind the Mets used 35 pitchers last year.
Unless Hamel sharply rebounds, I would be surprised to see him pitch for the Mets in 2025, other than as perhaps an emergency reliever call up, and the 6th pitcher in the top 30 is Jack Wenninger (#29), so that low rank and his inexperience seems to make him quite a long shot for Queens in 2025.
Out of the 23 hitters, just Acuna and Mauricio could be helpful to the Mets in early 2025, IMO.
Overall? 30 bananas, but most of them are still too green.
DEALS COMING?
What are you readers seeing?
23 comments:
Very disappointing and we let Vasil and Lavender go.
I am more disappointed with the loss of lefty Lavender.
Joel Diaz will be a year removed from his surgery, Matt Allen is healthy and Calvin Ziegler could be back also
I repeat my still unanswered "mystery" question:
Why has Q, after a fine 3.75 ERA in 31 starts, including a September/ October 0.72, still "invisible", and never mentioned anywhere?
While the entire world tells me otherwise, I am not sure that Soto is a player that can carry a team to the tune of $765MM. But, these people are much smarter than I am, so I must defer. When we hear about Soto’s claim to fame, it always starts with walks, and I don’t want a player that looks to walk unless they can steal 100 bases. Soto shouldn’t need anyone to “protect” him in the lineup. Who protected Judge when won MVP twice? Soto was in front of him. I think Soto will be just fine. It’s the lineup as a whole that needs better pieces. Alonso is a very good player, but like every free agent, he is hunting for every dime. Unfortunately for the Mets, the only in-house ready players to help aren’t options at first base. Too, the free agents are suspect or have areas of concern. Walker has a QO, and signing him is more penalties to maybe missing out of Sasaki or not having enough to sign Peña. This is why I wanted the Mets under the Tax, but, whatever. The Mets missed out on Brandon Montgomery last year because of that ten spot draft penalty, and he is already top 50.
The masher I want behind Soto is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. So, sign a one year first baseman, try to offload Marte to help get under the cap, try to sign Sasaki to save money. It’s ironic that Sasaki wants to be “the best player in the world” but wants to play in a small market. Why go for the sky, but hide it? I think he will be a Met.
Soto had Machado “protecting” him in San Diego, and Tatis Jr. what happened there? The pitching staff was very good.
The Mets need a first baseman, a DH, and an ace. They are nowhere near completion.
Gus, I would inquire about a trade for Guerrero this year. What would the Mets give up. Killer offense.
San Diego is ranked 28th asa hitter’s park, the Mets 22nd, per BB Savant. I can’t stress enough that the fences should come more (5 feet all around, except 7 feet in center.). Let our guys be rewarded, not thwarted. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/statcast-park-factors
Bill, Steamers has Jose Q at 9-11, 4.36 next year. Maybe they will yet settle on him at SP 5, at less $ than he hopes for.
I’ve been in the “let Alonso walk” camp, and I’d still rather not commit 5+ years to him, but I have a feeling that the big money’s just not out there for him, and in the end he’ll be here on a not-unreasonable deal. If he is, a lineup that starts Lindor - Soto - Vientos - Alonso - Nimmo is a serious gauntlet for any pitcher to navigate. I also expect to see a lot more 2024 post All-Star McNeil this season than the flailing slap hitter we saw in ‘23 and the first half of ‘24. I just think it took him too long to re-adjust after the shift was banned, but he definitely changed his approach last summer, and he is a former batting champ. I also think it’s reasonable to expect a step forward from Alvarez, which could mean a 30 HR guy hitting 7th or 8th. Do we need a FT DH? Wouldn’t be shocked to see Winker back in that role. All of this adds up to maybe the best and longest lineup in baseball, if things go even reasonably well and guys stay healthy.
I can't challenge Steamers, but I know what he gave us this season. The mystery to me is that he never seems to be even an afterthought.
What does Steamers say about the more expensice Montas for '25?
I'm with you!
Steamers has Montas at 10-9, 4.05. And he is younger. Remember that while Joe Q is close in their view to that, he was hurt a lot until mid 2023 and is much older.
Adam, is Winker the best hitter we can have to DH? Not sure. But I am a real fan of the guy. I hope he stays.
I would like Alonso…BUT…I hope Stearns and Cohen are seriously considering the great Guerrero, this off season or next. And he is a better 1B.
Hopefully Stearns is testing the waters on trading for Vlad Jr. this year. I think that would be a good way to go
Not sure he’s the best option out there, but he hits the hell out of RHP, isn’t unplayable in the OF, seemed to fit well with the culture last season, and may not cost an arm and a leg. I could see him being extremely productive getting 400 AB’s in the midst of this lineup.
No one every answers Bill Metsiac's mystery question. I'll try. Quintana was horrible for a very long stretch in 2024 before having an admirable finish. Most remember that stretch and his mere 75 innings in 2023 and would not want to take a chance that this 35 year old is really the guy that showed up in September of 2024.
We need Pete back. I think Vlad's going to get another huge contract. like in the 400-500 mil range and I don't want to commit that much money on top of Soto.
I think we should get Pete back on a 5 year deal. If it has to go to 6 just do it and get it done. Make some of the deal deffered to keep his AAV closer to 20 but have a total money payout more than olson and freeman. On the back end of this contract he can DH if and still clear the DG spot before year 7 of Soto so it's clear for him.
I think Marte will get paid down for a reliver or bench piece. I could see resigning Winker as the long end of a DH platoon. If you want a more dedicated DH who can also play 1B and split time there with Pete I would trade for Josh Naylor.
You could roll our the following.
Lindor S
Soto L
Pete R
Naylor L
Vientos R
Nimmo L
Alvarez R
McNeil L
Taylor / Siri R
That lineup would be sooooo deep. Pete and Naylor.
Now re-sign Manae and trade for Castillo and you pretty much just need a few relivers.
Alvarex ==
Dan, I really like this line of thinking.
(1) Vlad will be very expensive next year. I don't think they need to tie up three huge contracts.
(2) Pete simply puts up the numbers. While he may have had a little bit of an off year for him (heavens, he didn't hit 50 home runs), that is still some pretty serious production. Just sign him for 5 or 6 years.
(3) Naylor would be a nice piece, but I don't know about how the playing time would come out - is he ready to be a full time DH? Is Pete?
I'm really undecided yet on who the second baseman should be. You have penciled in Jeff McNeil - that leaves the young guys on the bench. I don't really see much way that Acuna does not make the team out of spring training. We'll have to see if Mauricio can make it back. Perhaps packaging up McNeil in a trade (Seattle??) might be the right option if possible.
Kirby Yates for Pen?
R 69, keep in mind that Vlad is 4.5 years younger than Pete. Pete may continue to decline as he rolls into his 30s. Vlad had a killer year at age 25. But they wouldhave to sign him as a free agent next year. He also likely would go to highest bidder.
I don't really have the same concern that you do about Pete's age. There are a lot of good hitting first baseman that have continued to rake through at least their 35 season. I am good with a 6 year contract for Pete. I think a happy Pete back in New York without contract issues hanging over his head and Juan Soto hitting ahead of him will look really really good in that line-up.
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