Cautious Optimist: Laddering Up: Part III (Creating A Top Tier Starting Rotation)

 

Completing the Starting rotation

The evidence suggests that the Mets have several pieces in place that, if augmented in the right ways, could give them a top tier pitching rotation.

Not just during the regular season, but in the playoffs as well.

The core four are McLean, Scott, Thornton and Tong.  All have ERAs this past year below 4.0 whereas the league average is 4.07.  

McLean separates himself from the rest by the fact that he has the best stuff, has tossed the most innings and produced the lowest ERA.  He is nowhere near his peak: a potential ACE; at worst, a very credible #1 starter.

Scott ranks next, has a limited but excellent arsenal short a compelling off-speed pitch. He would benefit from a change-up that works away from left handed hitters.  He needs to improve his efficiency as well. 

None of the core four is more efficient than Thornton, which is doubly impressive.  He has the least experience of the core four and, on paper, the least impressive stuff.  What he does have is confidence in his stuff, full commitment to almost every pitch he throws, and grit.  Virtually unflappable.  Love it.

Thornton is the back of the rotation lefty that Stearns thought he was getting when he resigned Manaea for 3yrs and 75million.  Thornton will earn less than that and perform considerably better.

Which brings us to Tong.

I don't think fans understand how big a risk he took by changing his release point this year.  He may have done it to increase his ability to throw a pitch with horizontal movement, something that had previously alluded him. What really matters, however, is that the collateral benefit of his doing so has saved his career (IMO), by eliminating undue strain on his lumbar spine and inevitable consequence of the lateral bend needed to turn his 3/4 arm angle into an over the top release.. 

Every pitch he relied on in the past responds differently from his new release point.  Every one.  This means he could no longer rely on his fastball and change-up -- his two best pitches -- working as they had when he was naming the top pitcher in the minor leagues. Talk about risk taking.

He has changed his release point, but continues to drop and shift his head left, a movement that is no longer necessary given the change in release point.  Like Linsocum, the head movement can be distracting and deceptive to hitters, but it is worse for Tong.  The extent of neck/head tilt misaligns the eyes.   We all see best  when our eyes are more level.

The tilt sends innacurate pictures to the brain that distort actual alignment of the target area.  I am convinced this contributes to the increased lack of command and consequent inefficiency Tong experienced during the course of this past season.  It needs to be corrected but will take time for him to own his entire new movement pattern and his arsenal.

On the other hand, while Tong has the most work to do of the four, he has the potential to slot in ahead of Scott and just behind McLean.  He's got Thornton's commitment to his craft and grit with potentially more electric stuff, but a more limited arsenal than McLean.

Stearns is on record asserting that the Mets need to have 8 available starters, which obviously means that some of them will spend most of the year in AAA and perhaps AA.  8 pitchers occupying 5/6 regular spots.

The core four brings us halfway there.

What more do the Mets need among the starting rotation to move them to a near elite level?

My approach is to divide the remaining four slots into two different groups: 5 and 6 in one group; 7 and 8  (and 9, 10?) in another.  5 and 6 will see regular action during the season; 7 and 8 will see most of their action in the minors.  Indeed, it is likely that the Mets will probably have 10 pitchers make starts next year (not counting openers), and that pitchers 7-10 will be camped in the minors but for injuries and occasional starts.

Let's get that list out of the way first since they won't be essential (unless the team is ravaged by injuries) to whether the rotation is near elite or not.

I have Santucci as my top choice among the bottom four and expect that Wenninger, Cota, Watson and Hill/Gill will see some time in the majors this year.

The fifth and sixth pitchers in 2027 are not currently in the organization

This means obtaining them will cost resources in the form of money or assets.  

It also means that if the Mets are serious about putting together a top tier top 6, they need to have more than one plan for doing so, as the competition for really first rate pitching is always strong.

And as Elon Musk found out on election night, money doesn't always win.

So what's the plan Stan?

I am going to shorten this a bit by asserting that there are a lot of Plan A-s and all of them start with signing Skubal as the ACE that takes this group of 4 to the level of a rotation that you could be confident in over any playoff series of any length. Period.  

All Plan A-s include as the second pitcher an innings eater capable of pitching a 4th game in a 7 game series. Skubal is not an innings eater. As of now, the only pitcher who can be counted on for innings on a per game basis is McLean.  

Here are some plausible names at varying price points for the second addition to a staff led by Skubal: Gausman, Mahle, May, Roy and Gray

These are all FA.  Gausman and Gray are craftsmen; both are older but very reliable. They are both short term contracts which would be desirable.

Roy is back healthy, and a crafty lefty who still has good stuff. Mahle and May have good stuff and upside as well. Mahle showed up last year; May, not yet.

Can/should the Mets go all in on Skubal?

The Mets won't be outbid for his services in years or dollars, but the rationality of the offer depends on its structure.  

Whatever the total compensation the contract calls for, I would front load it significantly over the first four years with an option for Skubal to enter free agency after the 4th year.  Front loading works to the player's advantage, but does the Mets no harm in this case. I would also include a clause that allows the Mets to make an offer to enhance the the remaining term of the contract that would if accepted, annul the option.

The general terms of the deal that would annul the option would be worked out as part of the original contract. 

The net effect would be that Skubal would have three potential salaries/deals to look at after 4 years: the original contract which would be relatively steeply declining over years 5-its conclusion; the enhancement deal that replaces the back end of the initial deal; and the amount that he and Boras believe he can receive should he declare himself a free agent after the 4th year. 

The Mets get the best pitcher in baseball for 4 years at least and can determine what they would like to do thereafter, either by letting him leave, enhancing their deal to prevent that or hoping he takes the original deal for security reasons or if he is no longer capable of performing as an ace.

I don't really feel it necessary to rank the other alternatives, but for ease I will put them in order.

Plan B1

Michael King is the headliner.  5 year deal at 1/2 of Skubal's full price.  Structure the deal similarly with a player option after year 3 that can be nullified by an extension or enhancement offer within certain parameters. Several number 2 pitchers make sense with King headlining but you need more than just an innings eater as his partner.

My preferred choice would be Morejon who is left handed, a one time starter who is a world class back of the bullpen pitcher at this point.  He has a four pitch mix and a fastball that reaches 100.  He could be a top tier starter and no worse than a 4 on the Mets staff.

Both King and Morejon are FA.  

 

Plan B2 King and Joe Ryan (going to arbitration, which will reduce the price of obtaining him in a trade.) 

Both have big game experience and can mentor the young staff

Plan B3. King and Morejon and Holmes.  

Obviously jumping ahead a bit, but neither Morejon nor Holmes is an innings eater, but if you throw in Holmes on a 2 year contract, just think of the quality of the bullpen you would have in any playoff series.  Or you could piggyback Holmes and Morejon in a game 4

Plan B4. King and Deitmers (requires a trade)

Plan C1. Logan Gilbert (requires a trade) and Morejon

Plan D.1  Alcantra (requires a trade) and Sonny Gray.

Plan D 2. Alcantra (requires a trade) and Morejon and Holmes

Plan D 3. Alcantra and Mahle and Holmes

I could add several other possible combinations but I'd rather hear what you have to say.

And the bill is?

The core four is incredibly inexpensive.  

Any plan that includes Skubal is going to cost @50m for 4 years plus whatever the innings eater receives.

Every option that does not include Skubal will cost less and in each case I  included only one trade in order to keep as many high end assets as possible.  

The key for me in all of these moves is to fill the gap at the top of the rotation first.  

Skubal is the obvious first choice.

King, Gilbert and Alcantra would all be lesser catches, but difference makers nonetheless.  Pairing any of the latter with a veteran like Gausman or Sonny Gray or a high upside arm like Dietmers or (my favorite) Morejon would be transformative.

Have some fun with this and tell me what direction you would go in.  Impose some limits on total expenses and then have at it.

Who would you be willing to give up in a trade for Gilbert?  Alcantra? Dietmers?  Ryan?