Paul Articulates – How close are the Mets?

The GM meetings began on Tuesday in Las Vegas.  The baseball world is swirling with discussion about what will transpire at the meetings, as it is the first big opportunity after the free agent market opened up for the GMs to come together face-to-face.  Also present will be several key agents and possibly even some of the clients.  The urgency, of course, is due to the pending expiration of the collective bargaining agreement at the end of the month.  If unresolved, which is almost a given, a lockout would ensue and shelve any negotiations and signings that are not completed.

The buzz on the street is that the Mets are in the thick of the Tarik Skubal race, and several other teams including the formidable Dodgers are in competition.  The prevailing opinion is that the Mets need to sign Skubal and that need will drive a very aggressive posture by David Stearns and Steve Cohen.

It is obvious why the Mets need Skubal, but that is the same reason that other teams need Skubal – he is the most talented pitcher out there, with multiple Cy Young awards before his 30th birthday (later this month).  He would be a game changer for any playoff-ready team.  One could count on him to bring more regular season victories than any predecessor, and once in the playoffs he would be the favored ace in any game 1.

But if the Mets are to cash in on Skubal, they have to be ready to win more than just a wild card series.  They need to be a team that has a high probability of overcoming some already talented teams in the National League like the Dodgers, the world champion Brewers, and the Braves.

Mets fans have shown great optimism about their future, as they have a young, talented group of starting pitchers in Nolan McLean, Christian Scott, and Zac Thornton.  They have two dynamic young players in AJ Ewing and Carson Benge (who should have been rookie of the year) and the generational player Juan Soto.  With Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette anchoring an infield that will likely see the infusion of additional young talent like Jefferson Rojas, what is not to like?

Well, frankly, the answer is history.  The Mets, who had many of these players available throughout 2025 and some of them in 2025, accumulated a 112-143 record (.439) from June 13, 2025 through the present.  Skubal, who has averaged 14 wins per season in the last three years with good teams, would only add 8-9 wins over Sean Manaea (6 wins last year) or Freddy Peralta (5 wins last year).    That may or may not get a 74 win team to the threshold of a wild card game, but it does not feel like domination.

I admit that there are many variables at play here.  The Mets had some tough luck with injuries, they had a manager in Carlos Mendoza that was not pulling the right levers, and their losing streaks lacked a pitcher that could be a streak stopper every five days.  But it takes a lot more than that to be a team that competes with franchises like the Dodgers who averaged 100.4 wins per season over the last five years or the Brewers (95.0 wins/year) or the Braves (96.2 wins/year).

Here is what I believe a Tarik Skubal-led New York Mets team needs to have to win a championship:

• A first baseman capable of 30 HR and 100 RBI in a season

• A second baseman with a strong positive DRS/OAA rating and a .380 OPS

• Dominance from McLean and/or Scott, not just very good seasons.  Think what Koosman was to Seaver or Darling/Ojeda/Fernandez was to Gooden

• A lock-down closer that saves 90% of opportunities

• A team batting average in the .255-.260 range

Here is what the current New York Mets roster has:

• The current roster does not include any first basemen close to the mark.  

• The team has some legitimate prospects for second base that some day may reach the mark, but not likely in their first season.  Semien won’t get there.  

• Both McLean and Scott are capable of being great pitchers but have not reached that level yet.  Scott spent last year working his way back into full-season play after over a year down with injury but was only 4-5 with a 3.85 ERA.  McLean had dominant innings but needs to eliminate “bad innings” to reach his potential.  

• Nine teams last year had closers with a 90% save percentage.  Devin Williams had an 84.2% save percentage (16/19).

• The Mets team batting average last year was .239.  In the last five years, their best season (2022) was .259, led by four players that are no longer with the team: Jeff McNeil, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, and Pete Alonso.

I would not discourage David Stearns from making the big play to get Tarik Skubal.  I just think that there is a whole lot of work to be done to turn that play into a championship season.