Reese Kaplan -- Should the Mets Avoid a 2nd Marcus Semien Issue?

What does the Marcus Semien 2026 season for the Mets suggest as a course of action for the team roster as it currently exists? 

Obviously the defensive and offensive skills are nowhere near what they once were and Semien is benefiting greatly from the long term contract he signed while he was still a productive player delivering All Star worthy output on both sides of the field. 

Today, however, he’s a shell of his former self and has become a cautionary tale regarding the risk of these guaranteed deals that linger into a formerly great player’s latter stages as he inches towards retirement.  People have seen this trend happen before with others when frequent injuries and diminished output underscore why the deal was not a particularly good long term strategy for the roster nor the payroll budget.

While there is no ready made answer as to how to address the water under the bridge problem with Semien still on payroll or 2027 and 2028, it does open up the same question about others on the Mets roster.  For the moment we will ignore Juan Soto and his unheard of 15 year contract signed while in his 20s as he is a true star caliber player with the bat.  He may have to shift to DH at some point given his defensive challenges and the desire to keep him off the IL.  For now, however, he is close to earning his annual pay rate.

The one instead that draws some consideration is the very long term deal signed before David Stearns was a part of this organization.  In this case look back to the off-season of 2021 when the club in Queens gave Lindor a 10-year $341 million contract that would run from then through the 2031 season.  Given Lindor’s bat-to-ball skills, his strong defense, his base running ability and his leadership, it was a deal very few questioned at the time. In fact, it was a red letter day for new owner Steve Cohen who signaled to the fan base that the penny pinching ways of the Wilpon era was over and things would indeed be different under his stewardship. 

Injuries aside (as well as the rumored rift between he and Soto), no one has wasted a single week as a Mets fan regretting that decision in any way.  When he’s on the field and in the lineup he demonstrates a rare combination of formidable skills that indeed anchor both the infield and the lineup. 

Fast forward to the close of the 2026 season and realize that you are now halfway through that monster deal with the good still far outweighing the bad.  It is now, however, we need to take a page from the Branch Rickey managerial manual and recount his oft quoted philosophy that sometimes it’s best to "Trade a player a year too early rather than a year too late." 

So what does that mean for the Mets and their future with Lindor?  Right now going into the 2027 season the shortstop has seemingly lost a bit of range defensively while he struggled after his injuries to produce as he had in the past.  While no one is saying he is clearly over the hill, the Semien handwriting is still on the wall and it is is reasonable to question if Lindor during his ages 33 through 37 seasons will produce at the same level as he had earlier in his career.  Given his annual hit for $34.1 million, a solid player earning All Star money is a less robust value to the roster and maybe it is time to consider his long term value to the Mets.

Right now in the minors the Mets have some interesting middle infielders making their way up the ladder but no one is suggesting any of them is a direct WAR replacement for Lindor.  The issue here is about spending effectively during someone’s latter years in a contract and you have to consider what Branch Rickey said. 

Is it time to begin consideration of a Lindor trade elsewhere and letting another club live with the Semien like decline that is likely to occur while freeing up a lot of payroll capital?