New York Mets: Crop Report

A look through the Mets of Today and the Mets of Tomorrow sorted by position. I thought it would be interesting to see how the depth chart stacked up. You may notice that I'm omitting a certain position... CATCHER... there are well documented reasons for this that depress me too much to go into right now.

1st Base:

Ike Davis - Expiration Date (Distant)
Ike Davis was hurt in 2011 and we are all a little worried about how well he'll return from it in 2012. Not a single Met fan will tell you that we've heard the last accolades for Ike Davis. We expect him to be playing 1st Base for the next 3-7 years.

Allan Dykstra - Peak Ripeness (2013-2014)
Dykstra returned to a semblance of prospectitude (I"m pretending that's a word) in 2011 with a powerful display in Binghamton. He'll be promoted to AAA in 2012 and see time in the majors no later than 2013 if things hold to their course. Even with his prodigious power and humungous frame I can't see Allan displacing anyone on the Met roster. He seems like a good candidate to be a power lefty off the bench and someone to spell Ike from time to time.

Jefry Marte - Peak Ripeness (2014-2015)
I'm being a hypocrite that by putting Marte on this list and having Flores listed as a third baseman... sue me. Marte's defense needs work and I think he'll shift to first base and find his groove there. Marte's 2011 FSL and AFL performances opened a lot of eyes and now it's up to him to find his way around third or develop more power for first.

Aderlin Rodriguez - Peak Ripeness (2014-2016)
Another player who I'm shifting from third to first. Unlike Marte I don't question Aderlin's power. It will be very interesting to see what he is capable of outside of Savannah and in the friendlier confines of the Port St. Lucie complex. If he can boost his power numbers with the move he'll rocket through the depth charts and potentially be viewed as a someday replacement for Ike Davis. Of the names on the list... I think he has the best shot.

Cole Frenzel - Peak Ripeness (2014-2015)
Frenzel is a strange thought for first base. He's much more in the vein of John Olerud than Prince Fielder meaning his fielding and OBP would be his biggest assets. A converted SS he's got above average tools for the position and being a larger player his body should provide power. His power will simply not be GREAT for producing homers... sorry...

2nd Base:

Daniel Murphy - Expiration Date (2013)
I happen to be a fan of Daniel Murphy, so why have I set an expiration date so close? Well... I don't think Daniel Murphy has much of a future because he doesn't have much of a future as a starting 2B. He's a Utility bench guy who can do a lot of things well... though fielding isn't one of them. So after 2012 is over and once the Mets are willing to make a half-hearted effort at competing in the NL East again... I think you have to believe that Murphy can't be starting at second.

Reese Havens - Peak Ripeness (2012-2013)
Reese Havens needs to prove what he is by the end of 2012 or the Mets need to look elsewhere. He either starts 2013 as the Met starting 2B or the Mets will need to look at a free agent signing like... Brandon Philips or Howie Kendrick. I'm betting on Havens... and against injuries. If he can ONLY stay healthy he has a better than good shot at being an impact player in the VERY NEAR future. He's not a Gold Glove... but he's a better fielder than Murph.

Wilfredo Tovar - Peak Ripeness (2014-2015)
Tovar could be listed as a SS... he plays both positions pretty well. Tovar plays LOTS of positions pretty well. He's around on the Mets for his fielding and I DO believe his glove could see him to the majors. He's just not the ideal pick for a starter because his bat isn't particularly impressive. He's got a good eye which also leads towards the thought of being a solid bench option.

Brandon Brown - Peak Ripeness (2014) Brandon Brown played in 2011 in Brooklyn... how is he going to make the majors by 2014? Well... I don't know. In 2014 he's going to be older than 27 and at the age where you look for a prospect to reach the majors. His stats in Brooklyn were pretty sweet, he showed power and some speed... he could get a bump straight past Port St. Lucie just based on how players shake out.

Phillip Evans - Peak Ripeness (2015-2016)
Evans was a "Draft Steal" at least... looking at his largely meaningless 2011 numbers. He's probably our top SS prospect currently but I agree with Mack in that he'll probably shift to 2B. I have him moving to Savannah (perhaps a bit early) instead of playing a full season in Brooklyn and I also have him switching positions LONG before the Met front-office would dream of it. I like Evans a lot and he's the OTHER 2B prospect that excites me on my list. He's definitely a ways off.


3rd Base:

David Wright - Expiration Date (2017 - 2018)
With Jose Reyes gone the Mets MUST re-sign David Wright and to a contract of at least 5-6 years. This makes his expiration date... partially hope. He will likely hold onto a starting roll with the Mets through that time, but I won't discount the chances that Wright might move to left field or elsewhere to help the team.

Zach Lutz - Peak Ripeness (2012 - 2013)
My apologies to Mr. Lutz as I neglected him when I wrote this. I first started writing about Lutz two seasons back when he had a pretty solid showing in A+. I wrote more about him in 2010 when he and Duda were stomping around AA and AAA. Then in 2011 we were all writing about him when... he got hurt. It happens. I don't think we kid ourselves that Lutz is a MEGA-TALENT but he's also not a ZERO-TALENT. He's got the stuff to be a major-league reserve anywhere and could be the starting 3B on a team that had more offense coming from positions like catcher and left field.

Wilmer Flores - Peak Ripeness (2014 - 2016)
After Wright, most people would put Jefry Marte, I shift Marte into the wings of 1B although don't actually shift him across the diamond in 2012. Instead I'm shifting Flores over to 3rd as he repeats Port St. Lucie. If Flores can prove an adequate 3B and develop more pop with the bat he will rocket BACK up the prospect boards like crazy. The Mets WILL retain Wright because (unless you count Daniel Murphy) there is nobody on the team who is geared to replace him for the next 2-3 years.)

Richard Lucas - Peak Ripeness (2014)
I was considering if I should shift Lucas' name into italics and ignore him as a minor league journeyman. He had a VERY good season in Brooklyn... but this was his 5th season in the minors and every time he goes above Brooklyn he seems to implode. I have him going to Savannah where he needs to keep the good times rolling. His career can no longer afford another stall.

Short Stop:

Ruben Tejada - Expiration Date (2012 - 2014)
Now... I tried to make peace with Ruben yesterday, but old habits die hard. He doesn't have power and he doesn't have speed and blah blah blah... you've heard it all before. The Mets COULD survive with him at short for a while if they are getting production from at least 6 other players in the lineup and the pitching holds up.

Jordany Valdespin - Peak Ripeness (2012 - 2013)
Valdespin could be that replacement to Reyes that we so desperately want. He's got speed and power and can play the position... what's the problem? Well... he's also got no patience, maturity problems and poor base-running skills. Valdespin has EVERY chance of finishing the year with a starting role on the Mets. He could even sneak in as a 2B if things break differently but he has a lot of growing to do in AAA and it starts with his attitude.

Robbie Shields - Peak Ripeness (2014 - 2015)
Robbie Shields has spent a lot of time being hurt and that's why he hasn't gotten beyond Port St. Lucie as his age. Shields had a very solid 2011 campaign and is back on track to doing something but has almost no wiggle room for error. While he's saved for now because the Mets are shallow at SS, he NEEDS to prove that he's ready to move onto AA or risk being overtaken by some of the other prospects in the system.

Juan Carlos Gamboa- Peak Ripeness (2015 - 2016)
Juan Carlos is intriguing. Most of what I read suggests he'll stay at short and his stats point to budding power. At 5'7" that power would likely never be phenomenal but he's at least someone to have on the radar because of the mix of hitting and fielding.

Outfield:

Jason Bay - Expiration Date (2009)
It's sad but true. I am done looking through the rose colored glasses. Instead I choose to blame Canada for this colossal failure of a Met.

Andres Torres - Expiration Date (2010)
Torres is not a starting OF ... neither is Hairston and Nieuwenhuis is injured... so I guess Torres is our best option. Get ready for Angel Pagan Lite.

Lucas Duda - Expiration Date (2013 - 2016)
The lone bright-spot in the current Met outfield is an outfielder whose defense will drive us all up a wall. Duda's bat has come a long way in a short amount of time. Scouts went from: journeyman minors... to: powerful lefty bench player... to: legitimate major league hitter in pretty short order. If Duda can continue his rampage of late 2011 he'll be an all-star in 2012.

Fernando Martinez - Peak Ripeness (2012) [LF, RF]
Fernando could make the team because the Nieuwenhuis is hurt, Lagares could use some time in AAA and he has nothing left to show the Mets in the minors. He's at the point (not because of age but because of chances) where he needs to produce in the majors or he's done. A lot of people would say that he's done, but I could see him winning out a platoon role or more from the hands of Mr. Bay.

Juan Lagares - Peak Ripeness (2012 - 2013) [LF, CF, RF]
Lagares hadn't been relevant to the overall prospect list in a while before 2011 but he's VERY much on it for 2012. Lagares is probably the closest impact OF to the majors (thanks to Captain Kirk's injury) and the fact he can SORTA play CF is a help to the Mets in the sense that they do not have a legitimate solution there at present. We like his batting average but wish he had more speed, power and a better eye.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis - Peak Ripeness (2012 - 2013) [LF, CF]
Captain Kirk is probably the best pick for the Mets as a lead off hitter and CF for 2012. GREAT! Unfortunately he won't be ready to start 2012. BUMMER! Until he IS ready let us salivate over the potential of 15 SBs and 10 HRs... okay... so it's still not exactly like we are awaiting the second coming of Ted Williams but the guy has solid power for CF and SOME speed... plus his contact and patience are up there with the likes of Josh Satin. Not too shabby either.

Pedro Zapata - Peak Ripeness (2013 - 2014) [LF, CF]
Wondering if the Mets had ANYONE in their farm who projected as a "typical" lead off hitter? Introducing Pedro Zapata. Pedro has bounced around the minors over the past couple seasons but he's also done nothing that I'd call "Bad" in that time. I promote him to AA because 1) I'm a nice guy and 2) Vaughn isn't ready and Gilbert Gomez needs to avoid being "Rushed".

Matt Den Dekker - Peak Ripeness (2013) [CF]
2011 opened my eyes to Den Dekker. I might be one othe few people who look at him as a future corner-stone of the team... but I do. Den Dekker showed something very rare in a defensive CF... power. Now... we Met fans have been spoiled of late by having Mr. Beltran playing CF. Let me spoil this little secret, powerful center-fielders are rare. NOW... I don't think Matt will be anywhere so close to Carlos, but he does appear to have it in him to club around 20 HRs in a season. I'll take that.

Cesar Puello - Peak Ripeness (2013 - 2015) [LF, CF, RF]
Didn't Puello have a mediocre season? Why am I promoting him to Binghamton? Puello came around towards the END of 2011 and... frankly... the Mets need to free the space in Port St. Lucie for other players. You should realize that an outfield of Puello, Den Dekker and Zapata would be fantastically rangy... Puello could bounce right back to elite prospect status after about a month of solid performance in AA. He's definitely got a shot at success there.

Cory Vaughn - Peak Ripeness (2014 - 2015) [LF, RF]
I still love Cory but 2011 was not a pretty year for him. Vaughn DOES have power and he DOES have patience but we'll need to see if he can put it together in Port St. Lucie before he returns to MY top 10 Met prospect list again. I have faith that he'll prove me right and get back on track for a 2014 Flushing debut. If not... he's still Greg Vaughn's son and that has to count for something... right? Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?...

Darrell Ceciliani - Peak Ripeness (2014 - 2016) [CF]
The hero of the 2011 Cyclones joined Vaughn in a less impressive 2012. Darrell has more of an excuse... and extremely good defense up his sleeve. Darrell will be freed from Savannah in 2012 and the expectations are... pretty normal. He should hit for an average above .250... try not to strike out too much and steal some bases. Anything above that is gravy. If he does that much he can continue his progress through the system.

Gilbert Gomez - Peak Ripeness (2015 - 2016) [LF, CF, RF]
Gomez would have had a picture on this post... if the Mets had posted one on their minor league site. Gomez is one of those talents who does a bit of everything. Now... we already have Cesar Puello (who fits into this boat) and we've experienced Alex Escobar and Lastings Milledge so we know not to get our hopes up too much. Here's something that should make you feel good: I have him repeating A+ baseball not because of his 2011... but because he's still so young. His 2011 was more than good enough to move up to AA at 20 years old.

Travis Taijeron - Peak Ripeness (2015 - 2016) [LF, RF]
The Mets don't often get players with raw power so I sorta freak out when I see them. Travis swung a mighty big bat in Brooklyn in 2011. 9 HRs, 5 3Bs and 13 2Bs in under 200 ABs... He strikes out like a power hitter, which if I understand scouting... is sometimes good. He'll get his chance to prove if his power is real (Like Aderlin Rodriguez) or not there yer (Like Cory Vaughn) in 2012 as he moves into the hitter's nightmare of Savannah.

Gregory Pron - Peak Ripeness (2015 - 2016) [LF, RF]
Why am I listing a guy drafted in the 42nd round on this list? Well... Mr. Pron's 2011 opened more than a few eyes. He blasted 7 HRs in Kingsport and put together a short-season stat line to shout about. He even has a good touch of speed... though probably not enough to stick in CF... I have him playing in Savannah with Taijeron and Pugh and UNLIKE Taijeron, Pron's mix of speed means he doesn't NEED to keep the power rolling.

Tillman Pugh - Peak Ripeness (2015 - 2016) [LF, RF]
Pugh has come up through the levels on a typical course that makes his starting in Savannah a no brainer. He's hit for a LITTLE power and shown some speed in his seasons and will see if he's going to be a "REAL" prospect by the end of 2012.

AAA, Buffalo Bisons:
1B - Valentino Pascucci
2B - Reese Havens
3B - Zach Lutz
SS - Jordany Valdespin
LF - Juan Lagares
CF - Kirk Nieuwenhuis
RF - Fernando Martinez

AA, Binghamton B-Mets:
1B - Allan Dykstra
2B - Wilfredo Tovar
3B - Jefry Marte
SS - Omar Quintanilla
LF - Pedro Zapata
CF - Matt DenDekker
RF - Cesar Puello

A+, Port St. Lucie Mets:
1B - Aderlin Rodriguez
2B - Brandon Brown
3B - Wilmer Flores
SS - Robbie Shields
LF - Gilbert Gomez
CF - Darrell Ceciliani
RF - Cory Vaughn

A, Savannah Sand Gnats:
1B - Cole Frenzel
2B - Phillip Evans
3B - Richard Lucas
SS - Juan Carlos Gamboa
LF - Tillman Pugh
CF - Gregory Pron
RF - Travis Taijeron

The Second Base Race

While the main debate remains whether the Mets will re-sign Jose Reyes and/or trade David Wright, I want to talk about a position with options. The Mets have plenty of options for who will end up playing second base, let's look at some pros and cons.

Daniel Murphy:
Murphy can hit, he doesn't have a TON of power but he can hit. There is hardly a soul alive that doesn't think Murphy has a legit MLB bat. There are PLENTY of people who don't think he has an MLB position. The fact is he's played okay at first base, reasonably well at third, passably at second... and not so great in the outfield. Before the season I was one of the people who picked Murphy to beat out Castillo, Emaus and Turner for the starting job based on his bat. I was not at all surprised when he wound up there after a few weeks.

Pros - Murphy's bat is what makes us fans clamor for him getting into the starting lineup. He hits for average with some solid power and very good contact.

Cons - Murphy is not a natural fielder. He makes most of the plays but will not do so well and WILL lead to errors no matter where you play him.

Odds - 10:1 (Murphy's biggest issue isn't his glove, it's that he's not viewed as a starter. Some bloggers will talk about the need for defense up the middle, but ESPECIALLY if Reyes and Wright are going away, the Mets NEED to pump as much offense into the lineup as possible.)

Ruben Tejada:
It's no secret that I'm not a huge Tejada fan. Ruben's bat does nothing to excite me and he's always struck me as a solid backup IF. He does show flashes of contact at the plate, but doesn't provide power or speed in such a way that I groan when I think of him as a starting everyday player. Ruben gets his support based on his outstanding glove work which gets rave reviews at SS and 2B. A big thing to consider is that if Reyes leaves town he has NO chance of starting at second as he's almost guaranteed to start at SS.

Pros - The biggest pro is his glove but I guess you could also love his age as it might allow him growth. Any way I cut it, I can't see that meaning power or speed... which translates into minimal production.

Cons - Tejada may occasionally hit for contact which keeps his BA above .260, but his power is non-existent and his speed is minimal.

Odds - 4:1 (Tejada has a good shot to win the starting 2B job IF Reyes is back with the team. If Reyes is not I would say he has NO shot... as he'll be the starting SS.)

Justin Turner:
Big Red was a big, pleasant surprise for the Mets in 2011. He doesn't have a ton of speed or power... like Tejada but he's got double power and seemed to get a ton of clutch hits. In the field he's not exactly a dynamo with the glove and leaves something to be desired, but he CAN handle 3rd, 2nd and 1st. The fact remains that Turner strikes almost everyone as a backup IF. He DOES do more with the bat than Tejada and he DOES have more fielding chops than Murphy but does any of that make him a SOLID starter?

Pros - Jeterlike intangibles? How else can you quantify that he simply seemed to collect BIG hits.

Cons - Completely average. He doesn't do anything that is THAT impressive.

Odds - 6:1 (If Reyes is gone, he has a VERY good chance of at least starting the year on second. His biggest competition would be Jordany Valdespin and my bet would be that Terry would prefer to avoid the immaturity issues that Jordany brings to the table.)

Josh Satin:
Most bloggers love Josh. He's not supposed to be anything special but the guy keeps hitting. I don't think he's a great option to start at 2nd, he's like Justin Turner with less MLB experience. For that reason he's really an after-thought in the race for the position. At the same time he will be a part of the bench and from what I've seen him do in the minors, I expect he'll be useful in whatever his role ends up. BECAUSE of that I think he could work his way into Terry's good graces for a time-share at second by the half-way point of 2012.

Pros - Josh Satin has a GREAT eye. I don't know if it will mean a ton of walks in the majors as pitchers will not be trying to pitch around him, but we can expect he'll not swing at bad pitches.

Cons - Defense is not his strongest suit and though I don't think he'd hurt us, I can already hear the people calling in and saying defense is the most important thing up the middle.

Odds - 15:1 (The odds are not good that he gets ANY starting position, but he SHOULD make the roster.

Jordany Valdespin:
I like Valdespin a lot, but I'm not a manager and I don't have to deal with discipline. Of all the candidates his glove is among the best, his power is among the best and he has the most speed. Should Reyes leave... Jordany WILL be with the Mets as they need the legs in the lineup. He's not the smartest base runner, but that will come with time. The knock against Jordany is his work ethic. Terry loves gritty guys who will kill themselves for their team. Jordany has been disciplined by minor league teams multiple times and that is a bad sign.

Pros - Raw talent is all in the kid's favor. He's got a glove nearly as good as Tejada's, power similar to Murphy and more speed than anyone else on the depth chart for second.

Cons - He's a bit of a problem in terms of discipline.

Odds - 13:1 (He's a bit of a long-shot to make the team unless Reyes leaves town. Then he's a longshot to NOT be the starting 2B.)

Reese Havens:
Reese is the wild card. He's still the 2B of the future and he's got the skills to blow most of the other players away. The issue with Reese is the same issue he's had for years. He cannot stay healthy. I love that he did not go to the AFL and instead is focusing on conditioning and weight training to get him healthy for 2012-13. It makes him a longer shot to win the job this spring, but if Wright and Reyes are gone it's going to be hard to keep him out of Queens. We could have a redux of the 2010 Ike Davis situation very quickly.

Pros - GREAT bat. The guy commands the plate, has a good and powerful line drive swing and plays reasonably good defense.

Cons - HEALTH! If he cannot stay on the field he's useless.

Odds - 20:1 (It's a long shot for him to win the job but a longer shot for him not to earn it if he's healthy.)