Your 2012 Mets

For all those self-abusive fools... the 2012 New York Mets...

Lineup:
1. Ruben Tejada, SS (R) He may not be the fastest shortstop, he may not have the most power and he is certainly not the greatest salsa dancer at the position. "Ruby T" is what he is. Most teams would be okay with a SS who could hit above .270 and had an OBP over .310 but the Mets have so many problems that I think "Ruby T" is destined to be drummed out of town by rabid Jose Reyes memories.


2. Daniel Murphy, 2B (L) "Murph" is simply "Murph". I happen to like him a lot. His bat has plenty of good points and if he continues to manage himself at 2B he could become one of the top hitting 2Bs in baseball. He does need to avoid being killed by runners when turning double plays. What about Reese Havens? Well... should Reese start to prove ready... expect Murphy to be traded. Detroit?


3. David Wright, 3B (R) "Mr. Right" is going to either be locked into the Mets for the long haul or he's leaving town before the trade deadline. He's still my favorite player (has been since I had to wave goodbye to the "Batman Named Robin") and I still think he's a top player. If he leaves town the way Reyes did (i.e. with the Mets getting almost nothing) I think that Met fans can quit on the team without guilt.


4. Ike Davis, 1B (L) "We Like Ike" Davis is probably the lone player that Met fans have confidence in. Wiser fans will temper that confidence knowing that his injury recovery will determine whether he ACTUALLY has a bright future. He could endure a clumsy 2012 if he recovers well in 2013. That will be his window before the Mets will need to move on. I'm betting that he's fine by the end of Spring Training but the Goddess of Luck hates Met fans.

5. Jason Bay, LF (R) "That Canadian in Left" sure does stink in Blue and Orange. Bay has done Jack Squat as a Met. We might as well re-term Jack Squat Jason Bay. So though he's done Jason Bay for us, there's a glimmer of hope that with shorter fences he could actually hit .250 with 20+ HRs. It's a modest goal, but also one that seemed a bit impossible in recent years. If "That Canadian in Left" can do that I'll stop claiming he's done Jason Bay for the Mets.

6. Lucas Duda, RF (L) I can't help but call him "Zippity Duda" which is a shame because he plays like Paul Bunyan. I actually think he should paint his bat blue and call it Babe. "Zippity" is a BIG dude with a BIG bat. Will the bat translate into power? (30+ HRs) That's tough to say. I think Duda's swing isn't a proto-typical power-hitter's swing, but I do think he can be PRODUCTIVE. HRs or doubles, I think he'll drive in runs.


7. Andres Torres, CF (S) Andres "The Average" is not Pagan. For better or worse. He doesn't have the same power or speed, but he's also a lot more sound a player, with a better HEALTH track. Sure, he's a leader and a fine fielder, but... WHEN IS CAPTAIN KIRK GOING TO BE READY? More importantly, WHEN IS DEN DEKKER? Torres is a place holder and I think he, the team and the fore mentioned minor leaguers all know it.


8. Josh Thole, C (L) Lets see... How about... "Holy Moly" Thole? I suppose that would make his nickname the biggest "Wow factor" of his character. He's really fine in the greater scheme of things. Like "Ruby T" do we REALLY NEED a catcher to be Carlos Santana? No. However, the Mets are not exactly blessed with CarGo in left, Jose Bautista in right and Robinson Cano at second. The Mets have no good option for catcher unless they can sign a free agent or wait 3-5 years. So... "Holy Moly" Thole it is.


"Key" Bench Bats:
OF - Scott Hairston (R) Scotty "Too Hotty" was fine in 2011 and I was pretty blah about bringing him back for 2012. Until I thought about the fact that the Mets let a younger cheaper version of Scott Hairston's bat go via poor roster management (Nick Evans). Scott can play all three OF positions and that's hyper keen and spiffy, but I don't want him to start more than 5% of games and frankly... with this current team... I'm SURE he will.

SS - Ronny Cedeno (R) As much as I was ready to rant and rave about signing Jack Wilson, I was okay with signing "NOT Roger" Cedeno. It's probably just hypocrisy, but I'll play the race card and claim that with Jack the team would be PAINFULLY white. Ronny's bat and tools put him on par with Tejada and at least force Tejada to produce. Giving Tejada a starting position for free might have been a bit much for the kid.


The Rotation:
1. Johan Santana, SP (L) Will "The Lefty Formerly Known As" Johan pitch another game in Flushing? My gut says yes, but I can't argue with the people who say no. The better question might be, will Johan ever pitch like Johan again? That answer is much harder to be optimistic about. His fastball continues to lose pop, and a pitcher relying on touch and feel is only SO good. Perhaps Johan can re-invent himself as a young Jamie Moyer and that will be enough to win 10+ games.

2. Jon Niese, SP (L) I like "The Nose" a lot but this is the year he has to prove to me that he CAN make the step from good peripherals to good stats. He needs to show his ERA can be under 4.00 and that he can win 10+ games. I think those are realistic and acceptable goals for us to have for Niese. His role in the rotation (even that great future rotation) is secure because he's the lefty and when Johan moves on he's the ONLY lefty. I just want to see him shine more.

3. R.A. Dickey, SP (R) Mr. Dickey "Everyman" could be extended and named team captain depending on how he starts the season. Really, can the Mets afford to let a much more affordable player who is loved by the fans go? Regardless of his future with the Mets, I think Dickey has at least 4-5 more productive seasons in the tank. Like Wakefield he might even extend that by switching into the pen at times.


4. Mike Pelfrey, SP (R) Not every Met fan is happy about "Little Pelf" being offered arbitration. We are REALLY frustrated with the lack of progress and thought that his money could have been spent elsewhere. In the end, a pitcher who starts as regularly as Mike is likely worth that money and the Mets can use 2012 as a year to re-establish Mike's trade value. I anticipate Mike being moved before the deadline.


5. Dillon Gee, SP (R) I'm really sorry for this, but I think "Gee Whiz" will be awful in 2012. I think we saw the best that we're likely to see from him and now that the MLB has too, he's going to get shelled. HOPEFULLY I'm wrong. If I'm not, I think Schwinden and McHugh are probably better versions of Gee and neither is that far from the majors. Look for Gee to try out new pitches this Spring. He needs SOMETHING to keep his repertoire fresh and new for 2012.

6. Miguel Batista, SP (R) Is our #6 pitcher Schwinden? Hefner? McHugh? The answer is "I don't deserve a nickname" Batista. He is the safest name to replace an injured pitcher without issue. Rather than risk Schwinden, McHugh or Hefner not being ready, Miguel presents a NO RISK option that IF HE FAILS he can simple be dropped or demoted, no harm no foul. You might argue that he doesn't present the best chances of winning games but I'd argue that winning games is not the Wilpon priority.


The Bullpen:
CL - Frank Francisco, RP (R) "Frankie Franks" should be fine as closer. I would imagine somewhere between the success of Benitez and Blooper but all-in-all fine. The Mets are not in a mode right now where a closer is the most crucial position as they might not be on the better side of too many close games when the 9th inning rolls around. What I will say is that Francisco has to watch his back as there are 4 pitchers who have a shot of stealing his job.

SU - John Rauch , RP (R) "Giant" John Rauch is a much better pitcher than the pundits are giving him credit for. I benefited from his solid closer numbers in fantasy once upon a time and found him (from a statistical standing) pretty solid. Is he going to be the next Mariano Rivera? NO! Firstly, when I speak to Yankee fans they tell me Rivera is never retiring. Secondly, he's just not that skilled and crafty. Should "Frankie Franks" fizzle, Rauch should be a fine temp for the job.

SU - Ramon Ramirez, RP (R) "Ram Ram" is a guy a lot of people project into the Met closer role in the near future. He's younger and might be the most purely talented arm in bullpen. Talent and success are not always close friends so be sure to temper your enthusiasm until we see him pitching. It's very nice to know that he's a third closer candidate as the Mets could almost give the ball over after the 5th each game if all these arms pan out the way we hope.

MR - Bobby Parnell, RP (R) Bobby "Gasoline" is the guy that Alderson and the Mets would LOVE to be the closer of the future. He has the most power of any of our current relievers and that typically means something in the world of closers. Gasoline is a double edged sword, it can make things go... but it can also burn you. We've seen both results from Bobby over the years. I'm hoping he starts to go somewhere in 2012 and that he gets there before 2013.

For The Average Fans

I played volleyball last night and that meant talking to Jerry, the average Met fan. Jerry came up to me and said, "So, our big move is signing Roger Cedeno?" Obviously I corrected him on the Cedeno in question... but it didn't exactly make the Mets sound much better. Jerry is a Met fan, and he's loyal but he's never going to follow the minors or look 2 years down the road. While Jerry is a pretty mellow and rational guy, he is pretty adamant that the Mets would not be getting a dime of his money this year.

Jerry is not wrong. The Mets ORGANIZATION do not deserve the loyalty and devotion we fans will be bringing. They watched as a fan favorite and the star of the franchise left town to go to a division rival, they signed some complimentary players and they improved the bullpen. I mean... if you aren't into the prospect potential... WHY ARE YOU WATCHING THE 2012 METS?

I won't talk about the Wilpons and I won't complain about Alderson and I won't even mention the fact that we gave away a prospect (YES, Fernando Martinez was STILL a prospect) to protect D.J. FRIGGIN' Carasco. I WILL SAY, that this is the kind of year where the Met Organization runs the risk of losing a good deal of those Average Fans.

What Do You All Think?

What Should The Average Fan Look Forward To in 2012?

The $90 Million Dollar Question

"Is $90 Million Enough For a New York Sports Team?"

I think most Met fans have seen that the 2012 estimated payroll for the Mets is around $90 Million Dollars. Thats nearly $90 Million more than I have in my bank account, but at the same time... it seems like nothing.

Looking at 2011 Team Payroll Figures: Link
The Mets at or above the level of the other major market teams. Sure... the Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox, White Sox and Cubs spent more... but the Mets are at least appearing like they play in a city with lots of people, lots of money, and lots of love for the sport of Baseball. $90 Million puts the Mets well below the rest of the major markets and amongst the ranks of the Milwaukee Brewers. Do the Wilpons think that the City of New York is not capable of supporting a team more expensive than the City of Beer and Cheese?

The Disturbing Trend is Easy to Spot:

2008: #2, $138 Mil
2009: #2, $149 Mil
2010: #5, $134 Mil
2011: #7, $119 Mil
2012: $90 Mil

Brian Costa:

"After today's signings, Mets projected to start 2012 with a payroll somewhere in the range of $90 million, down from $143 million in 2011."

So The Question Is:

Should The Wilpons Be Allowed To Own The Mets?

The short answer is no. So is the long answer, but it involves a bit more ranting. Many of you can guess what the next block of text will be about so if it doesn't interest you, just skip the RED text. When we some of you were young your parents may have given in to your demands to get a dog on the condition that you take care of it. You'd need to walk it and feed it and brush it every day. Most kids who duped their parents into this deal would know that their parents would still end up doing most of the work. What the Wilpons are doing is no different than being a snot-nosed kid who wants the puppy... but none of the work. They own a franchise that we, as fans, support. We buy tickets and merchandise, watch games on TV and make them money. In return they are supposed to infuse the team with an appropriate amount of that money so the team we, as fans, are watching is still relevant and good. Instead they are using the team to make money without regarding the fans. Should the Wilpons be allowed to own the Mets? NO!

Now that I have that off my chest I need to explain a major issue. The Wilpons WILL lose ownership of the Mets. It's only a matter of time. While the Wilpons own the Mets, it will be like swimming in ski boots. Sure if you are a strong swimmer or naturally buoyant you can keep your head above the water, but it's a pretty dumb thing to do and eventually you're going to drown.

NOTE: Whether the Wilpons needed to pay $1 Billion or $386 Million I never thought they still had the money to pay. Eventually... 2013... 2014... 2021... they WILL lose this team. The longer they hold on, the worse things will get. Bud Selig should step in within the next year and do something or loyal fans will jump ship.

My Two Birds With One Stone:

Governor Christie of New Jersey recently stated that he'd leave politics to help run his New York Mets. Frankly, Christie being a Met fan fills me with a small amount of revulsion but I'll soldier on. Yet, let us say that a new ownership board is formed and that they chose Chris as their President of Operations. Not only would this get the Wilpons out of my baseball team, it would get Christie out of my state's government.

While I loathe Christie's policy of attacking education as a vile and cancerous growth on the country. I highly doubt that his hatred of educators would matter much in the baseball world. In fact, his no nonsense swagger that makes him such a popular Republican would probably be welcomed by Met fans (Conservative and Liberal alike). I also would bet that the NJEA would kick in a little money to help get Christie out of Trenton and into Flushing.

P.S.

If the Governor's staffers happen to read this, I'd love it if you could get moving on doing something for the residents of Little Falls, NJ BEFORE the Flood of 2012.

New Team To Beat's Not So Perfect Situation

Without a question, the most improved team in the NL East are the Miami Marlins. Their lineup is improved, their rotation is improved and their bullpen is improved. They have a new stadium, a new manager and a new superstar SS. Things are pretty sweet in South Beach.

Lineup:
1. Jose Reyes, SS
2. Omar Infante, 2B
3. Hanley Ramirez, 3B
4. Mike Stanton, RF
5. Logan Morisson, LF
6. Gaby Sanchez, 1B
7. John Buck, C
8. Chris Coghlan, CF

Rotation:
1. Josh Johnson
2. Mark Buehrle
3. Anibal Sanchez
4. Ricky Nolasco
5. Wade LeBlanc / Carlos Zambrano

Bullpen:
CL: Heath Bell
SU: Juan Oviedo
SU: Randy Choate

Awesome...

Not to be contrary... but...

Ozzie Guillen:

• Why It's Good For Them - Ozzie Guillen is one of the most controversial managers in baseball on the plus side his fiery nature can invigorate a team and get them motivated.
• Why It's Bad For Them - I would say that 50% of Ozzie Guillen's fiery attitudt schtick comes across as immature. Add this to a few other immature players (Hanley Ramirez + Carlos Zambrano) and I can see the Miami clubhouse to be pretty unpleasant to be in.

Hanley Ramirez:

• Why It's Good For Them - Hanley had a bad 2011 but I don't think anyone is discounting his ability to put up 30/30 seasons while hitting .300 just yet. Moving to a new position will also probably help his transition to more power as well.
• Why It's Bad For Them - What Hanley wants... Hanley gets... well... that USED to be the case. Remember when a manager was fired for an argument with Ramirez? (Good times...) Hanley is publicly unhappy with his being FORCED off of short stop. He doesn't WANT to play 3rd... frankly, with Matt Dominguez coming up, perhaps the Marlins shouldn't want him there EITHER.

Jose Reyes:

• Why It's Good For Them - Jose Reyes is one of the most fun players to watch. He can spark a team into scoring completely on his own and he's a definite defensive upgrade over Hanley Ramirez at short.
• Why It's Bad For Them - The obvious thing is that the Marlins just tied up a boat-load of money into a guy whose biggest asset is his legs. The thing he injures almost twice a season... his hamstrings, may make them regret that.

Josh Johnson:

• Why It's Good For Them - When healthy... I'm not sure there is a better pitcher in all of baseball. I include Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander and King Felix into that equation.
• Why It's Bad For Them - When is the last time Johnson went through a full season healthy? Anyone? The kiss of death here? He's a keeper on my fantasy team.

Heath Bell:

• Why It's Good For Them - Bell is one of the TOP closers in baseball and was likely the best reliever on the market since Mariano pretended to be a few years back.
• Why It's Bad For Them - Bell got a LOT of money. While I don't think that they bid themselves into oblivion (like the Mets with Oliver Perez) I do think that they'll regret the money tied into him before the end.

Mark Buehrle:

• Why It's Good For Them - Mark has been one of the most steady starters in the American League for YEARS. He's also a pretty good human being.
• Why It's Bad For Them - They paid WAY too much for a guy who I don't think deserves to be a top team's #2 starter anymore. While they needed to bring in a big pitcher they would have been better off spending the extra cash on Darvish or Wilson.

The New Stadium:

• Why It's Good For Them - New stadiums are nice and AC is DOUBLY nice in the hot swampy mess of Summer in Miami. PLUS: They have GIANT aquariums behind home plate... AWESOME!!!
• Why It's Bad For Them - It's not... but color me skeptical that Miami will become a baseball town like Philadelphia. (Their fans are jerks but they show up) I'll be impressed if the NEW Miami stadium with their NEW players and UGLY uniforms have packed houses through the middle months of the season.

2012 Through Rose Colored Glasses

Ignoring the things we don't know... like the future of Jose Reyes and whether David Wright will be traded. Let us look at the season where everything just broke right for the Mets. So light a scented candle, put on some smooth jazz and relax as you allow yourself to pretend for a second that the Mets could JUST MAYBE get lucky.

Johan Santana is back on the mound on opening day. On that day he pitches seven strong innings whilst only giving up one run. As the season wares on he turns out a steady sub 3.00 ERA and 4-5 K's a game. He's not quite All-Star caliber but he's winning more games then he's losing and proving to still be the stopper when things aren't right.

Angel Pagan is hitting, running and fielding. By mid-July the thought of the Mets non-tendering Angel is laughable. His batting average is above .300 for the entire year and he's showed some pop here and there.

R.A. Dickey is SO good the Mets negotiate to extend his contract for two more seasons. Dickey has become the outspoken leader that the clubhouse has needed and his jersey becomes one of the top 5 selling Met jerseys.

Ike Davis is back and fully charged. He leads the NL in home runs through June before falling into a neck and neck race with Washington's surprising Mike Morse. Ike finishes his All Star season with the first (of what will be many) gold gloves.

Jenrry Mejia returns to AA after recovering from Tommy John surgery and promptly puts on a clinic. He winds up the year in AAA with a combined ERA under 2.00 and a 10.1 K/9. The Mets opt to not bring him up to the majors to allow him to build up his strength in the minors for a full year.

Lucas Duda is not only a surprise All Star game player, but he also manages to top Ike Davis for RBIs. His 111 RBIs have cemented Duda into the New York Met outfield for the foreseeable future.

Matt Harvey eases right into the majors. After giving up 4 runs in his first outing in the majors, Harvey quickly demonstrates JUST how good he really is. He finishes his year with a 3.56 ERA a 9.1 K/9 and a 10-4 record in 17 starts.

Jason Bay returns to being a solid performer with an average floating around .275 and 25 home runs on the year. He credits his returned success to an offseason strength building routine.

Zack Wheeler and Jeurys Familia both succeed in the minors. Both of them end the year in the AAA rotation ready to compete for the rotation in 2013. Familia is rumored to be headed for the bullpen but Sandy Alderson is mum on the issue.

The Mets are surprise contenders for the division finding themselves 7 games back of the Phillies with 14 games to play. After suffering injuries to Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard, the Mets win the NL East and return to the playoffs.

Improbable... unlikely and TECHNICALLY possible. Met fans... let us not give up on 2012 before 2012 begins. Even if the whole world tells us we have no shot of success, you play the game for a reason. In any season, in any game and in any inning... someone might just surprise you with something BIG.

The NY Met Bottom-Up Plan

Build from the ground up sounds like such logic that HOW could anyone try to build any other way. In pro sports, it's often the OTHER way around. My favorite example of this is the Miami Heat. Start with several ELITE ELITE talents... and then surround them with whatever is available. Championship GUARANTEED... WRONG! You want a team that build's from the bottom... look at a team like the Florida Marlins.

Florida's system of growing their talent in the farm and then making a BIG splash in free agency every 4-7 years is brilliant. You build the base of your team from within, then when you are on the rise you go out and buy that top tier talent to put you over the edge. If you look at the image above... you can see very easily the hazards of getting the big name (big PAY CHECK) players first.

The NY Met Bottom-Up Plan:

Step 1: Protect The Farm
If Seattle contacted Sandy Alderson today and offered Felix Hernandez for 4 of our top prospects... you have to believe it would be tempting. Felix is YOUNG and proven and guys we'd be trading like Wheeler, Harvey, Familia and Mejia could all FLOP in the majors. Here's the issue: King Felix has been in the league long enough to have earned a serious pay check. That check will only get bigger for the next 5-7 years. Trading for... and retaining a player like Felix Hernandez would cripple the finances of the team and seriously deplete our prospect pool. Are we building? GOOD, then our prospects are off limits unless we're trading for... well... prospects.

Step 2: Spend Wisely
Ordinarily you might have someone who is looking at a rebuild plan start with EXTREME fiscal responsibility. The Mets... despite what the media says... are NOT 4-5 years from competing. I would say 2012 is a pretty immense long-shot but 2013 and 2014 are not out of the question because of the crop of talent building in the farm. SO... what does this mean? Bluntly? It means we should sign Reyes. Ruben Tejada is not enough of a bat (at least until we have one like Havens on second), Valdespin doesn't look ready and all other free agents are pretty steep downgrades. So... getting Reyes, who is already loved by fans, likes New York and has succeeded there, is good business sense. We'd be signing Reyes to be our 2013 (and beyond) SS.

UPDATE: Since the Marlins have become SUPER-STRONG competitors for Jose Reyes the Mets NEED to up their game. The only thing worse than losing Reyes for a pair of picks is losing Reyes to a team that doesn't even give up a first rounder. Because the Marlin's 1st round pick is protected Alderson needs to UP his threshold. I'd be less upset if he landed in Philly. Despite what the media might say, NOTHING is written in stone and if the Mets wanted to make an offer to top the Marlins they COULD retain Reyes.

Step 3: Swallow Your Pride
I love David Wright (as a fan). He's my favorite player in baseball and he's on my favorite team. If the right offer came along, we're talking about Drew Pomeranz + two other top prospects, then I support the Mets making that move.

WAIT A MINUTE!!!

One second ago we kept Reyes because he was the best we could possibly do at that position for a couple of years. We're not going to get anyone remotely as good as David Wright for 2012, 2013 or 2014. Well... you're right. We're not. The difference is we have players who can man third and put up reasonable numbers. Daniel Murphy or Zach Lutz (Or BOTH!) could step in for 2012 and perhaps longer while players like Nolan Arenado (Hey... we traded Wright for him in this scenario), Jefry Marte, Wilmer Flores and Aderlin Rodriguez progress in the minors.

Step 4: Find Something To Love
2012 could be a long year, but giving up on the team doesn't exactly help the team to continue to improve. It may be enough to go to the ball park to watch Jeurys Familia or Kirk Nieuwenhuis, just to see what the kids are capable of. It might be enough to see a resurgent Johan Santana... or an emerging talent like Ike Davis. Whatever it is... fans can actually help a team rebuilding by going out to support it. That brings in revenue for the team and who knows... by 2013 the Mets could be ready to get that payroll back to the levels that we all believe a New York ball club should have.

Reasons To Smile

This may not be shaping up as the offseason of your dreams, but that doesn't mean it's time to use that cyanide capsule you've been saving for the day the Mets lose Wright and Reyes. There are plenty of reasons to still look at 2012 with an air of optimism and hope... maybe even a manic tinge of glee.

Generation 2K: Now... the caveat here is to not start placing all your eggs in this basket but the bright side of a down year is that players like Harvey, Familia, Mejia, McHugh, CoHoon and Schwinden can all get their shots. HECK, if he makes Harvey-esque strides, we could see Zack Wheeler in 2012.

Lucas Duda: For some reason, as I watched Plaxico Burress turn back the clock with 3 TD catches I found myself thinking of Lucas Duda. Okay, so Plax is not a top WR anymore. HOWEVER once he's in the endzone, he's great at scoring runs. Similarly I think Duda will be a great source for RBI's. He's got a good approach to at bats and I think he will be good for 80+ and maybe even 90+ RBIs.

Happy Surprises: Remember when the Mets were THE team to beat in the NL East and they got some surprises? Injuries upon injuries and a couple collapses that left the team realing? Well this season could start with the Mets expected to finish 4th or 5th in the NL East and that means that surprises... are probably only going to be the good kind.

Looking At Things From THEIR Perspective

I've done a lot of posting about what I'd do, or at least LIKE to do if I were running the Mets. I mean I've listed every solution from signing Reyes to going after Albert Pujols and back again. I think it might be more important to look at things from the perspective about the guys paying the bills.

Let us face some facts:

• Attendance Is Down
• The Team Isn't Winning
• They Either Participated In Or Were Taken By A Ponzi Scheme
• They Will Need To Pay Irving Picard Between $83 and $383 Million

Let us also remember that a year spent rebuilding without stars like Wright and/or Reyes means LOWER attendance, LESS wins and LESS revenue with which to pay Irving Picard. So... forgetting what is in the best interest of the team... what is in the best interest of the OWNERS?

Let us look at assets:

• David Wright, the face of the franchise, he's a homegrown talent with a large fan following. He's had a couple of rougher seasons now, and might net you more talent in a trade.
• Johan Santana, He's beyond the point where he's a draw for fans because he hasn't pitched in a long time and he's not the pitcher he was.
• Ike Davis, He's the future face of the offense which is fine, but he won't draw big box office numbers by himself.
• Scrappy Go-Getters, Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda and R.A. Dickey might all be fine players but they aren't getting fans into the seats.
• Generation 2K, You have a crop of TOP starting pitching talent in the farm but it could be over a year away and could fizzle like Generation K did.

If Alderson did nothing, and let Reyes walk there isn't enough there to keep the fans interested. The Wilpons WANT fans to be interested. They would love to bring in an Albert Pujols who could single-handedly bring in a slew of fans with his reputation alone. However, Pujols does NOT make sense for the Mets and their pitcher's park. So... what should the Wilpons do to keep fans in the seats for 2012?

The Fan Plan:

• Re-Sign Jose Reyes - (It's a good-will gesture to the fans that you are not going to play it cheap in a big city like NY. It says, "Yes, we can afford to keep our home grown talent.")
• Lock Up Wright - (Does he live up to the marquee billing? Maybe not, but he's the face of the team and you need to maintain the face of your team until you can establish a new one. Think the Yankees with Jeter into Cano.)
• Let Alderson Find His Gems - (I'd love the Mets to anti-up and get a Yu Darvish or C.J. Wilson but that is a little much. Instead let Alderson take low-risk chances on guys like: Chris Young, Scott Kazmir etc...)
• Get A Legit Closer - (For a short-term deal. I'm starting to feel like Francisco Cordero is the best fit because he can come in with a 1-2 year deal, do his job... then retire.)

If the Mets did those things they could stay relatively competitive in 2012 and still start promoting the crop of young talent from 2012 to 2014. This way you aren't sacrificing the future but also not giving the fans reason to panic and/or abandon ship. It is in the Wilpon's best FINANCIAL interest for Alderson to spend SOME money.

The Second Base Race

While the main debate remains whether the Mets will re-sign Jose Reyes and/or trade David Wright, I want to talk about a position with options. The Mets have plenty of options for who will end up playing second base, let's look at some pros and cons.

Daniel Murphy:
Murphy can hit, he doesn't have a TON of power but he can hit. There is hardly a soul alive that doesn't think Murphy has a legit MLB bat. There are PLENTY of people who don't think he has an MLB position. The fact is he's played okay at first base, reasonably well at third, passably at second... and not so great in the outfield. Before the season I was one of the people who picked Murphy to beat out Castillo, Emaus and Turner for the starting job based on his bat. I was not at all surprised when he wound up there after a few weeks.

Pros - Murphy's bat is what makes us fans clamor for him getting into the starting lineup. He hits for average with some solid power and very good contact.

Cons - Murphy is not a natural fielder. He makes most of the plays but will not do so well and WILL lead to errors no matter where you play him.

Odds - 10:1 (Murphy's biggest issue isn't his glove, it's that he's not viewed as a starter. Some bloggers will talk about the need for defense up the middle, but ESPECIALLY if Reyes and Wright are going away, the Mets NEED to pump as much offense into the lineup as possible.)

Ruben Tejada:
It's no secret that I'm not a huge Tejada fan. Ruben's bat does nothing to excite me and he's always struck me as a solid backup IF. He does show flashes of contact at the plate, but doesn't provide power or speed in such a way that I groan when I think of him as a starting everyday player. Ruben gets his support based on his outstanding glove work which gets rave reviews at SS and 2B. A big thing to consider is that if Reyes leaves town he has NO chance of starting at second as he's almost guaranteed to start at SS.

Pros - The biggest pro is his glove but I guess you could also love his age as it might allow him growth. Any way I cut it, I can't see that meaning power or speed... which translates into minimal production.

Cons - Tejada may occasionally hit for contact which keeps his BA above .260, but his power is non-existent and his speed is minimal.

Odds - 4:1 (Tejada has a good shot to win the starting 2B job IF Reyes is back with the team. If Reyes is not I would say he has NO shot... as he'll be the starting SS.)

Justin Turner:
Big Red was a big, pleasant surprise for the Mets in 2011. He doesn't have a ton of speed or power... like Tejada but he's got double power and seemed to get a ton of clutch hits. In the field he's not exactly a dynamo with the glove and leaves something to be desired, but he CAN handle 3rd, 2nd and 1st. The fact remains that Turner strikes almost everyone as a backup IF. He DOES do more with the bat than Tejada and he DOES have more fielding chops than Murphy but does any of that make him a SOLID starter?

Pros - Jeterlike intangibles? How else can you quantify that he simply seemed to collect BIG hits.

Cons - Completely average. He doesn't do anything that is THAT impressive.

Odds - 6:1 (If Reyes is gone, he has a VERY good chance of at least starting the year on second. His biggest competition would be Jordany Valdespin and my bet would be that Terry would prefer to avoid the immaturity issues that Jordany brings to the table.)

Josh Satin:
Most bloggers love Josh. He's not supposed to be anything special but the guy keeps hitting. I don't think he's a great option to start at 2nd, he's like Justin Turner with less MLB experience. For that reason he's really an after-thought in the race for the position. At the same time he will be a part of the bench and from what I've seen him do in the minors, I expect he'll be useful in whatever his role ends up. BECAUSE of that I think he could work his way into Terry's good graces for a time-share at second by the half-way point of 2012.

Pros - Josh Satin has a GREAT eye. I don't know if it will mean a ton of walks in the majors as pitchers will not be trying to pitch around him, but we can expect he'll not swing at bad pitches.

Cons - Defense is not his strongest suit and though I don't think he'd hurt us, I can already hear the people calling in and saying defense is the most important thing up the middle.

Odds - 15:1 (The odds are not good that he gets ANY starting position, but he SHOULD make the roster.

Jordany Valdespin:
I like Valdespin a lot, but I'm not a manager and I don't have to deal with discipline. Of all the candidates his glove is among the best, his power is among the best and he has the most speed. Should Reyes leave... Jordany WILL be with the Mets as they need the legs in the lineup. He's not the smartest base runner, but that will come with time. The knock against Jordany is his work ethic. Terry loves gritty guys who will kill themselves for their team. Jordany has been disciplined by minor league teams multiple times and that is a bad sign.

Pros - Raw talent is all in the kid's favor. He's got a glove nearly as good as Tejada's, power similar to Murphy and more speed than anyone else on the depth chart for second.

Cons - He's a bit of a problem in terms of discipline.

Odds - 13:1 (He's a bit of a long-shot to make the team unless Reyes leaves town. Then he's a longshot to NOT be the starting 2B.)

Reese Havens:
Reese is the wild card. He's still the 2B of the future and he's got the skills to blow most of the other players away. The issue with Reese is the same issue he's had for years. He cannot stay healthy. I love that he did not go to the AFL and instead is focusing on conditioning and weight training to get him healthy for 2012-13. It makes him a longer shot to win the job this spring, but if Wright and Reyes are gone it's going to be hard to keep him out of Queens. We could have a redux of the 2010 Ike Davis situation very quickly.

Pros - GREAT bat. The guy commands the plate, has a good and powerful line drive swing and plays reasonably good defense.

Cons - HEALTH! If he cannot stay on the field he's useless.

Odds - 20:1 (It's a long shot for him to win the job but a longer shot for him not to earn it if he's healthy.)

The Top 25: Jason Bay

It's really sad that I have to go to Bay as the 4th player in my most likely 25 player list. He's too expensive to drop and too bad to trade and he's GOING to start the year in left field for the Mets no matter what. That does NOT mean he's going to END the year in Flushing or... at least STARTING in Flushing.

What's To Like:

How He Handles The Press - If a baseball player's worth was decided by how well he talked to the media, Jason Bay would be worth a ton. He's good at saying the "right" thing when he's asked questions that, left to some players, might trap might trap a player into saying something negative about the team, coaching staff or his fellow players. Maybe he should coach the Wilpons.

What's Not To Like:

His Resume in New York - Since coming to New York he's not exactly done... ANYTHING. He's nowhere NEAR that 30 HR hitter he was in Pittsburgh and Boston. He's nowhere near 80+ RBIs that Omar Minaya wrongfully assumed he'd be guaranteed.

Mentality - I hate to say it, but I think Jason Bay has even given up on Jason Bay. When I look at him I don't see a player who expects to be the player he once was ever again. I remember seeing Luis Castillo give me glimmers of what he once was. Is Jason Bay going to make me yearn for Luis Castillo?

Random And Awesome:

Those Who Hail From Trail - Jason Bay hails from Trail in British Columbia. The following people ALSO hail from there: Shawn Horcoff, current NHL player and captain of the Edmonton Oilers. Thomas d'Aquino, Chief executive and president of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives CCCE, and one of the private-sector architects of the North American Free Trade Agreement. Lauren Bay, Canadian National Softball Team and National Pro Fastpitch pitcher (Jason's sister ). Adam Deadmarsh, former NHL player, won Stanley cup in 1996 with the Colorado Avalanche. Dallas Drake, former NHL player, won Stanley Cup in 2008 with the Red Wings. Ray Ferraro, former NHL player for the Islanders, Rangers, Whalers, Thrashers, Kings, Blues. Bruno Freschi, architect for Expo 86. Ken Georgetti, current President of the Canadian Labour Congress. Robert Hampton Gray, one of the last Canadians to die in WWII and the last Canadian recipient of the Victoria Cross. Tom Harrison, former MLB pitcher for the Kansas City A's, now the Oakland Athletics. Barret Jackman, current NHL player for the St. Louis Blues. Mike Kobluk, of The Chad Mitchell Trio. Richard Kromm, former NHL player. Kerrin Lee-Gartner, Canadian Olympic Women's Ski Team, Downhill Olympic Gold Medal 1992. Cesare Maniago, former NHL player for the Leafs, Canadiens, Rangers, North Stars, Canucks. Mike Matteucci, former NHL player for the Wild. Steve McCarthy, current NHL player for the Blackhawks, Canucks, Thrashers. Bill McEwan, President and CEO of Sobeys. Faron Moller, President of the BCTCS. Martin Popoff, heavy metal music journalist. Steve Tambellini, former NHL player & current GM of the Edmonton Oilers.

The Top 25:

1. Ike Davis, 1B
2. Jon Niese, SP
3. Tim Byrdak, RP
4. Jason Bay, LF
   

Finding The Diamonds in the Rough

Low Risk... High Reward... we've heard it about 1000 times. A player who has been VERY good, who has dealt with repeated years of disappointment due to injury or some other issue. You give him an incentive rich deal for a single season and if he does NOT perform, you haven't lost much money. Let us see who is out there who might fit into this category.

Catchers:
The category is pretty slim in free agency. The only names I come up with are Ivan Rodriguez who will be 40 and Gerald Laird who reminds me of a slightly worse Ronny Paulino. Now... Ryan Doumit might be a guy to look at but all and all I don't think there is anyone with upside enough to bother.

First Base:
The Mets have Ike Davis who is cheap, young and talented. They also have Murphy and Evans who can fill in if there is an injury. Moving on.

Second Base:
I don't know if any of these guys are necessarily good fits for the Mets, but they are at least offensive upgrades to Ruben Tejada.

Aaron Hill - He's sorta been hit or miss his entire career. He burst onto the scene with tremendous numbers in 2007 then again came up big in 2009. He's got some power and the ability to play a few positions, but the question is... how much do teams think he's worth. Arizona could keep him for $8 Mil but... I'm betting they don't. As a free agent I think he costs AT LEAST $2.5 Mil guaranteed. But I doubt much higher.

Kelly Johnson - Kelly had a good year in Atlanta before falling off the charts rapidly. He then re-emerged in Arizona where he developed a powerful reputation for HRs and strikeouts. Now... he's probably THE best 2B on the market (if Phillips is brought back to Cincy) and not what I'd call CHEAP, but again I don't think the interest will garner a contract anywhere near $10 Mil guaranteed. Think more around $4 or $5.

Third Base:
IF Wright were traded... the Mets have Murphy, Lutz and even Evans, Satin and Turner to throw out to the position. HOWEVER, it never hurts to look at other options.

Kevin Kouzmanoff - From 2008 through 2010 he was actually a pretty solid contributor and he managed it in PITCHER parks. In 2011 he flopped pretty hard but he's likely to not cost much at all and he has pretty solid power. He'd NOT be more than a 1 year deal and for that year... he'd not be more than a $2-3 Mil guaranteed. IS he better than Murphy? I don't know. HOWEVER, we could potentially trade Murphy.

Short Stop:
IF Reyes isn't re-signed. There ISN'T a cheap option with high upside to be had. SORRY, Jimmy Rollins will not be cheap.

Outfield:
I only see the Mets looking at a free agent OF if they intend to not offer arbitration to Angel Pagan. If they do go that route getting a free agent CF in case Captain Kirk proves not to be ready would just be a wise backup plan. There are actually a good number of options. Though only two strike me as value options.

Nate McLouth - Remember when Nate was the best player on the Pirates? Well 2.5 BAD seasons in Atlanta later and few people do. His option will not be picked up and he's not likely to get a BIG offer from anyone. With all that out in the open, if I can get McLouth for less than the commitment we'd be giving Pagan in arbitration I think I'd have to sign up for it. He still has some power and some speed and gives some prospects a little extra time to develop.

Grady Sizemore - Since the height of his value in 2006 he's taken a nose dive. Does that mean teams have forgotten about what Grady COULD be? Maybe... maybe not. I'm willing to bet that the Mets COULD take a chance on Grady for right around what Pagan would win in arbitration and that the reward of suce a venture could be VERY high. It's a lot of IF. I still happen to think he has something to offer a pro team.

Starting Pitchers:
We've finally reached the point where you can BANK on Alderson getting 1 or 2 guys in this type of category. The list starts with a couple of guys we all know and from there... well it's other guys we know.

Chris Capuano - Capuano was not a phenomenal starter for the Mets but I like bringing him back as a starter because IF/WHEN the Mets start bringing up the Harveys, Familias and Mejias of the world he can switch back into the bullpen and be DARNED effective. He's also a fine option for eating innings as a starter during what might be another ROUGH rebuilding year.

Chris Young - Before he got hurt... AGAIN, he was the BEST pitcher on the Met staff. Will he be able to be healthy in 2012? Probably not, but he's also likely to be cheap, and WHEN healthy he's likely to be pretty darned good. If we struck gold and he managed to stay off the DL... well we would be in a very NICE situation.

Scott Kazmir - Kazmir fell off the wagon HARD. He's not looked at remotely like the pseudo-ace he was (briefly) in Tampa. He really wouldn't be expected by almost anyone to be anything all that special in ANY capacity. HOWEVER, as he was once a front-end starter and once a top prospect for the Mets so he'd be worth a minor league contract and Spring Training invite.

Javier Vazquez - His 2011 wasn't good but I still think Vazquez could cobble together another fine season of NL pitching. He actually might be my favorite pick from this list to have the biggest impact on the 2012 Mets. He's got the ability to be a #3 pitcher if things break right and wouldn't cost much more than a Chris Capuano.

Chien-Ming Wang - Now... he didn't exactly wow anyone in 2011 but with injury recovery I really think it's the second year back that you can judge. With a chance to train full time again, perhaps the Mets could coax Wang into the pitcher he was for that team in the Bronx? Perhaps not. Again... he wouldn't cost much.

Relief Pitching:
I'm sorry but there isn't a real answer for low-risk high-reward players right now. Once the number of teams looking for closers goes down... then YES, there will be, but until then all the options should be considered middle of the road (though Papelbon should be considered pricey).