The Gamers vs. The Gifted: Schwinden vs. Harvey

I want everyone to take a wild guess who is gonna win this. Go ahead.

Full Name: Christopher Schwinden

Born: 09/22/1986

Birthplace: Visalia, CA

College: Fresno Pacific

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 215

Bats: R

Throws: R

Chris Schwinden was basically a huge 2011 surprise for me and most Met fans. He was never "Bad" but he was also not supposed to be THIS good. let alone this good at AAA.

The nice thing to see with Schwinden is that he does have some "Stuff" to go along with his command. I'm not sure... but he might actually be better than Dillon Gee in terms of "Gifted-ness" He'll have a shot of winning a rotation spot with the Mets. Though... depending on who they sign he might have a lot or only a little competition. If he's a starter... he'd better prove it quick with Harvey, Familia and Mejia looming.

Schwinden's Scouting Report:

What Schwinden lacks in overall power and velocity, he makes up for with movement and command. His fastball usually falls between 90-92 MPH and he uses his control of the pitch to take control of the count. His go-to secondary pitch is a changeup that sits in the 80-84 range. He also shows a slider and a curveball. The slider is a solid pitch he can command but the "swing and miss" pitch is the curve.

Full Name: Matthew Harvey

Born: 03/27/1989

Birthplace: New London, CT

College: North Carolina

Height: 6' 4"

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Right... so before the season I was annoyed at how highly everyone rated Matt Harvey. He hadn't pitched a single frame for a professional team and he was suddenly better than guys who HAD been pitching... and pitching pretty well.

Then... he exploded onto the scene in Port St. Lucie and I kinda got a bit too excited about him. I realized the Mets would put him on the "Fast-Track" and that he had the potential to be an Ace.

Then... he got to Binghamton and came back to earth. My expectations of his ceiling didn't diminish but I was no longer dreaming of a 2012 debut.

Then... he finished the year strong and I began to wonder if Harvey was indeed going to have an outside shot of impacting the 2012 ball club. Also... I wondered if I might be bi-polar.

My actual prediction for Harvey's 2012 is pretty tame. He'll start the year in AA... follow Familia to AAA and... if the Mets are "In It" see only a taste of the bigs. If the Mets drop out of the race I could see him getting more than a taste.

Harvey's Scouting Report:

MECHANICS

Harvey generates mid-90s velocity from a high three-quarters release point with relative ease. Plagued by mechanical inconsistency as a sophomore, Harvey now operates with a simpler and better-paced motion. Previously, he would rush toward home plate with a forceful stride, causing his arm to play “catch-up”, which produced varying release points and a cross-body finish. This season, he has shown more consistency in getting his pitching arm-side forearm to a vertical position as his glove-side foot lands. As a result, he has eliminated that cross-body action, increased his hip-shoulder separation, and improved his tempo, which explains why he is now pitching with the best velocity and fastball command since he arrived on campus. He has a tendency to pull his shoulder out as he swings his arm into the high-cocked position, making it more difficult than necessary to repeat his arm path, but suggesting that he could improve his command still further. The adjustments Harvey has made to this point are a testament to his work ethic and aptitude, which have been questioned in the past.

PITCH REPERTOIRE
MECHANICS

Harvey generates mid-90s velocity from a high three-quarters release point with relative ease. Plagued by mechanical inconsistency as a sophomore, Harvey now operates with a simpler and better-paced motion. Previously, he would rush toward home plate with a forceful stride, causing his arm to play “catch-up”, which produced varying release points and a cross-body finish. This season, he has shown more consistency in getting his pitching arm-side forearm to a vertical position as his glove-side foot lands. As a result, he has eliminated that cross-body action, increased his hip-shoulder separation, and improved his tempo, which explains why he is now pitching with the best velocity and fastball command since he arrived on campus. He has a tendency to pull his shoulder out as he swings his arm into the high-cocked position, making it more difficult than necessary to repeat his arm path, but suggesting that he could improve his command still further. The adjustments Harvey has made to this point are a testament to his work ethic and aptitude, which have been questioned in the past.

PITCH REPERTOIRE

Harvey’s four-seam fastball sits in the 92-96 mph range and touches 98, but has proven very hittable over his college career because it lacks for life. This prompted he and pitching coach Scott Forbes to develop a two-seam fastball this spring, a heavy ball that arrives at 91-93 which he keeps in the lower-third of the zone. Harvey has relied on his two-seamer often – particularly late in games – to consistently generate weak contact and limit his pitch count, which helps explain why he has pitched deeper into games with greater frequency this season. His breaking pitch of choice is his slider, which comes in at 83-85 and flashes plus right now. The pitch gets good rotation and tilt when thrown well, but it will occasionally flatten out and give the appearance of a slow cutter. He has lost the feel for his power curveball, which had plus potential coming out of high school as a third-round pick of the Angels in 2007, often failing to stay on top of it and hanging way up in the zone. But he has previously demonstrated the requisite hand speed to spin a good one, so this degradation should just be temporary. Harvey exhibits feel for a changeup, a 79-83 offering with some tumble, although his motion is noticeably more deliberate from a side view.

Duh... Matt Harvey wins but keep in mind that Harvey needs to have another good year before the Mets will throw him into the mix for a starting job. Schwinden is already under consideration.

The Gamers vs. The Gifted: McHugh vs. Familia

Getting to the top of the list and at this point we're getting to some gifted pitchers who are simply SO good that beating them is a tall order. The flip side is that some of the upper-level gamers are nearly ready to assume duties of becoming a major league starter (albeit sometimes in the back end of the rotation).

Full Name: Collin Alexander McHugh

Born: 06/19/1987

Birthplace: Covington, GA

College: Berry Col

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 195

Bats: R

Throws: R

Sometimes, like with Gorski, a player emerges from the ether. You don't see things coming they're just suddenly there. That isn't REALLY the case with McHugh. He had a strong 2009 in Brooklyn, a strong 2010 in Savannah and after skidding a bit in St. Lucie he flew high in Binghamton.

Like one or two other names I listed on the "Gamer" side of the table. McHugh fringes on the level of being "Gifted". His fastball DOES touch 93, he has five pitches and his breaking stuff isn't bad. He's just not in the league of raw talent with some of the other Met pitchers around him.

McHugh will be the #2 pitcher in AAA to start 2012 and could see a call due to injury at any point. The Mets will be less concerned about protecting McHugh due to his lack of "Gifted" status and that is JUST FINE with me. I can see McHugh being better than a #4 pitcher if things break right.

McHugh's Scouting Report:

• 6’2, 195 lbs. A better athlete than what he looks. He could add more muscle to his frame, soft body.
• Unorthodox motion. Very long on the arm take back, but gets his arm up in plenty of time as his front foot plants.
• He has cleaned his mechanics, which has helped him gain some velocity to his FB.
• Repeats his mechanics very well with little effort at release. Gets momentum going to the target, helping him throw strikes consistently.
• Over the top delivery. Gets good downward plane with extension to the plate.
• Fastball: 89-92 with some glove side run, topping out at 93 once or twice. Commanded it well in, out, up and down. Last year his fastball was mostly 87-90.
• Curveball: 71-74. 11-5 break. Slow looping, not hard sharp bite. Plays up a bit due to command. Uses it as a get me over pitch as well as a chase pitch in the dirt.
• Slider: 84-86. Best offspeed pitch he throws for me. Gets late bite to it with some depth and tilt. The late bite is the key for hitters not being able to recognize it and square it up. Throws it with confidence. Best swing and miss pitch.
• Cutter: 84-86. Very similar to his slider only lacked the downward action. Used it to get in on lefties. Threw a couple of front-door cutters to righties too.
• Change-up: 80-81. Did not use the change-up often. Tried to guide it instead of letting the grip do the work for him at times. Had some fade to the glove side.

Full Name: Jeurys Familia

Born: 10/10/1989

Birthplace: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

For all the Harvey and Wheeler hype, I think we forget which of the gifted pitchers in Generation 2K is CLOSEST to the majors. Familia was promoted to AA before Harvey, he's not injured (like Mejia) and control... is REALLY not an issue.

So... why is Familia listed BELOW Harvey? Well... while he clearly has two PLUS pitches... he lacks that third pitch. I'm hoping that 2012 is the year of the change-up for Jeurys and he learns to throw it for strikes as well as a swing and miss offering.

Like Mejia and some other pitchers I've heard that a move to the pen is "inevitable". These words that smack of finality upset me. You can't say that anyone will absolutely succeed or fail at anything until you see them do it. Take a look at Brandon Belt's "Can't Miss" rookie campaign.

Familia's Scouting Report:

• Big strong physical body with more room to add bulk (6’3”, 185lbs). Long arms and big hands. Ideal power pitcher’s frame and physique.
• Good mound presence. Very calm demeanor on the mound.
• Fastball: 94-96 with life in the zone and arm side run. When he gets extension, the ball explodes out of his hand. A true plus fastball when it is good.
• Slider: 78-83. When he gets his release point out in front, the slider is really good. Tends to get a little slurvy at times. Good arm speed. When good it has sharp downward bite, swing and miss pitch.
• Change-up: 80-82. Worst offering by far. He babies this pitch, telling me he lacks confidence in it. Key pitch to attack lefties and for his development as a starter.
• High ¾ release point. Could add more velocity with more leg drive and effort.
• Great attitude and work ethic. Very pleasant young man to talk with.

If you asked me which pitcher was a better overall package I'd go with Familia. His stuff and control make him a straight-up better pitcher than McHugh. HOWEVER if you ask me who has a better shot to be a major league starter... I have to go with McHugh whose 5 pitches are just as meaningful as a fastball that tops 95 with regularity. So McHugh wins? No... I'm going to shy away from this one and call it a tie.

The Gamers vs. The Gifted: Gorski vs. Mejia

Unlike the last round, I happen to really like both of the next two pitchers. Gorski isn't your typical success story. He's sorta come out of the ether to suddenly shine. Mejia meanwhile was the buzz of the Mets in 2010 and if not for an injury in 2011, would likely be a regular member of the rotation at this point.

Full Name: Darin Walter Gorski

Born: 10/06/1987

Birthplace: Mount Joy, PA

College: Kutztown U

Height: 6' 4"

Weight: 210

Bats: L

Throws: L

With a fastball that just barely nips 90 MPH and two other pitches that don't send scouts a-twitter. What exactly excites us so much about Gorski? Look at the numbers for 2011. They are wicked good and prove once again that you don't NEED to be gifted to blow opponents away.

Now... the 9.0+ K/9 isn't legit and it's hard to imagine a world where he doesn't regress some, but you have to see that he deserves SOME attention right now. If he can repeat this performance in AA we'll all be frenzied for his promotion. If his performance shows he can maintain some of his superlatives in higher levels he could become a good back of the rotation guy.

Gorski's Scouting Report:

There is very little I could find on Darin Gorski as far as scouting reports go. As a matter of fact I found none. It seems like he’s flown under the radar after putting together a breakout season in 2011. He came onto the pro scene in 2009 with the Brooklyn Cyclones of the New York-Penn League and even though he didn’t shine with incredible numbers, after 62.1 innings posting a 4.91 ERA, he did manage to keep hitters to a .220 batting average. The following year in 2010, the Mets served him up the hitters of the South Atlantic League, and once again, didn’t exactly light up the billboards. You have to give it to him at that point nonetheless. He was a kid coming out of a Division 2 school in Pennsylvania taking in his first full season as a pro. Well, all of it came to loud and abrupt bang when in 2011 Gorski was strategically placed in the Florida State League and he not only wan the Player of the Year honors, he also posted an 11-3 record with some magical numbers to stand behind it. The Mid Season All-Star will probably see his prospect stock rise next year as he tries to show legitimacy in Double-A Birmingham. In searching around the internet, it seems like he’s one of those unknown pitchers that is going to catch a strong buzz soon.

Full Name: Jenrry Manuel Mejia

Born: 10/11/1989

Birthplace: Tabara Arriba, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 0"

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Want to see me make a face? Tell me that Mejia has NO future as a starter. Warthen mentioned that Mejia might be shifted to a bullpen role permanently when he returns. I say, let him return and see how he handles starting. If that doesn't work... use him in relief.

If he was healthy, Mejia would have been starting with the Mets for some time already this year. Because he's hurt, Matt Harvey and Jeurys Familia are likely closer to the majors. Now... I still have faith but some are quick to lose theirs.

I think Mejia returns in mid-late May and depending on Harvey & Co. goes up to AAA. I think the Mets will hold him out of the majors for 2012 to protect him.

Mejia's Scouting Report:

Good: Plus-plus fastball that sits 94-97 and has a ton of sinking movement. He loves it though, and threw it 76% of the time last year. He also throws a plus change 86-88 mph with plenty of late fade, and a plus curve 79-81 mph (but he's inconsistent with his release point). Due to his heavy fastball, he is able to produce plenty of ground-balls.

Bad: His career high in innings is 94, and last year he only threw 81 due to the mismanagement/injuries. There are some concerns about his future ability to throw 200 innings/be a front-end starter, or if his body type would be better suited in the bullpen. His K/9 rate with the Mets last year was 5K/9 and his W/9 was 4.6. NOT GOOD. Due to the high number of walks, his WHIP was 1.69. And even though he has great "stuff", he had below league average swing and misses (7.4% versus league average of 8.5%). How much of this needs to be written off because he was 20 years old?

This is a tough call. I think Mejia has miles more talent and a much better chance of major league success, but injuries are tricky. Gorski is also just as likely to never repeat his 2011 in any higher levels so... This round goes to The Gifted.

The Gamers vs. The Gifted: Moore vs. Wheeler

Then there are times when I come to a match that is painfully obvious. Brandon Moore, the soft throwing righty, and Zack Wheeler, the flame thrower. It's really not hard to predict who is going to win this match. Brandon decided he'd make things even easier.

Brandon Moore News:

Mets righthander Brandon Moore was suspended 50 games by the commissioner's office for a second violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.

Moore, 25, tested positive for a drug of abuse. He went 10-8, 4.47 at Double-A Binghamton, leading the team in innings pitched (133), strikeouts (105) and wins.

Full Name: Brandon L. Moore

Born: 01/24/1986

Birthplace: Crawfordsville, IN

College: Indiana Wesleyan

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

I saw Moore in person and thought he had the potential to be a solid innings eater if things broke well. He finesses the zone and has pretty good break on his breaking pitches.

Before the suspension I was sending Moore to AAA where he'd join former Gnat Mark Cohoon. Unfortunately now I think Moore will ultimately be lost in the shuffle of Generation 2K. It's a bad time for Moore to get suspended as he was still ahead of the top kids in terms of development and might have gotten a crack at the majors first. Then... things like this happen.

Moore's Scouting Report:

Moore's fastball topped out at 90 MPH and sat close to 88 for most of the game. His slider was his go-to pitch and accounted for all but one of his K's. He threw the slider between 76 and 85 MPH and would have it sneaking into or diving out of the zone. He was hit pretty well a few times but kept the hitters using the biggest part of the ball-park. In the later part of the game he had a BIG at-bat vs. Latimore where he managed to get him to strike out on a good slow change up. Moore had good control for MOST of the night but is VERY uncomfortable when he is behind and WILL walk people rather than give up on the breaking pitches.

Full Name: Zachary Harrison Wheeler

Born: 05/30/1990

Birthplace: Smyrna, GA

Height: 6' 4"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R


Wheeler is a real talent and a lot of scouts like him even more than Matt Harvey. I'm not in that camp but that doesn't mean I don't love what I see.

Harvey has real talent and his one flaw is that his talent is sometimes a bit too... talented to control. If I ignore his work in the Giant's organization this year... well... I don't have to have those concerns. Wheeler will not be under pressure to shine right away as he's in a group with plenty of talent. He'll get his shot in 2013 or 2014.

Wheeler's Scouting Report:

Fastball

Wheeler works off a 91-94 MPH fastball with hard, sharp-bending tail. He doesn't nibble with the pitch and likes pitching inside. Able to touch 95 MPH when he needs it, he also was willing to slow things down and sacrifice velocity for command when he needed it -- dipped to the high-80s at times.

His fastball command came and went a little when I saw him. The pitch also straightened out at times. Wheeler exhibited better fastball command when pitching inside. He struggled with consistently throwing strikes on the outside corner. He was also up in the zone with his fastball a bit too much, something that could easily lead to lower ground-ball rates as he advances.

Because of his excellent movement and velocity, Wheeler's fastball projects as a plus offering. He attacks the zone with a lot of quality strikes and isn't at all afraid to challenge hitters. When he allows walks, it's not because he's nibbling, it's because he can't hit his spots.

Curveball

Wheeler's 72-78 MPH curveball has elite, two-plane break and is a no-doubt swing-and-miss offering. The gif to the right is of him buckling Jose Altuve on an 0-1 count. He went on to strike Altuve out with another curveball -- this time in the dirt -- the very next pitch.

Wheeler threw mainly curveballs in his third inning of work, after only occasionally showing the pitch his first two innings. He consistently snapped of curveballs like the one in the gif. It was very impressive. When he located it where he wanted to, it was unfair. Hitters could know it was coming and still swing through it.

He generally kept the pitch down in the zone, but he missed in the dirt a bit too much. Similar to his fastball, Wheeler has room to improve his curveball command. He's presently getting some swing-throughs on curveballs out of the zone that many big leaguer hitters won't offer at.

Still, the pitch is already above-average and it's close to surfacing as a true plus offering. As impressive as Wheeler's fastball was, I think his curveball is his best offering.

Changeup

Wheeler lowered his arm slot a little when he threw his 82-84 MPH changeup. It had bit of sink and late tail to it, but not as much as his fastball. Given how infrequently he threw it, I wasn't able to get a great read on it. I liked the movement, though he's going to need to up his arm speed and intent as well as his arm slot up a little in order to be able to sell it better to big-league hitters.

The changeup I saw was a below-average offering, but it's not far from being average and it could end up being slightly above.

Mechanics/Misc.

Wheeler throws from a 3/4 arm slot. He has a good, aggressive tempo. He's not a max effort pitcher. He stays balanced through his delivery and repeats it well.

He has big feet and broad shoulders. There's a good chance that his body isn't done filling out. Added muscle could lead to better body control, better command and more velocity.

Overall

Wheeler has two pitches that could surface as plus, in his fastball and curveball. The changeup I saw doesn't look like it will be more than a slightly above-average pitch. He could use more seasoning with his changeup as well as his command, but he could be a back-of-the-rotation starter in the big leagues tomorrow. His upside, which he could still be 3-4 years from reaching, is as a very good No. 2 starter and maybe even an ace for stretches of time.

Every young pitcher comes with a good amount of injury risk, but Wheeler's mechanics make him an unlikely bet to avoid major arm injuries over the next five years. Hopefully he can stay healthy, mature into his frame, sharpen his command and get a chance to face big-league hitters. Wheeler is a treat to watch and one of the higher upside arms in the minors.

This round is a decisively easy win for The Gifted.

The Gamers vs. The Gifted: Rodriguez vs. Peavey

This is the first time where the players are MUCH easier to compare. Both are about the same age. Both are righties. Both pitched in Port St. Lucie. They're both around the same height, but only Armando is a member of the clean plate club.

Full Name: Armando Alberto de Jesus Rodriguez

Born: 01/28/1988

Birthplace: San Cristobal, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 250

Bats: R

Throws: R

Rodriguez isn't FAT... Which means he's not David Wells... yet. He's also not thin. Being his age and his size is something a scout would note with a hint of caution. He doesn't throw hard enough to be gifted or to overlook a bit of extra pound-age, but... there's also some good.

One of the things I look for in a Gamer is the WHIP. It demonstrates an ability to keep the opponents off base. Armando's WHIP is very solid at 1.19. I also look at the opponent BA: .218 which is VERY nice but slightly troubling. While keeping opponents down around the Mendoza line is good. His progression through the majors has slowly seen that BA rise. He'll be repeating A+ ball to start the year and NEEDs to improve upon the numbers to hold his value.

Rodriguez's Scouting Report:

The Good: He led the Sally League in strikeouts last year, had the second lowest BAA (.214), and third in ERA (3.08). He's a strike-thrower who keeps the ball down. He isn't afraid to pitch inside, and has natural deception in his delivery. His fastball sits from 89-92 mph, with a 86-88mph cutter.

The Bad: He also throws a slider and a change-up, but neither are effective. In order for him to be effective at the higher levels, he needs to develop a better change-up or off-speed pitch.

Name: Gregory S. Peavey

Born: 07/11/1988

Birthplace: Vancouver, WA

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Peavey started the season by blithely tip-toeing through Savannah. People didn't notice how good he was doing... we were busy fawning over Harvey and Familia. His stuff is on the lower end of the gifted spectrum and the guy needs to develop his secondary offerings in a hurry.

Peavey will repeat Port St. Lucie as well and the comparisons between Rodriguez and Peavey will continue to be easy to make.

Peavey's Scouting Report:

Peavey has effort in his delivery but usually has a fastball around 92 mph, touching 94, to go with a good, hard slider. Peavey has been on radar screens for several years and while scouts like his arm and pitch-ability, he hasn't developed much since his freshman year. The violence in his delivery has some concerned and the lack of a changeup has some thinking he's bound for a bullpen role in the future

For this round I have to give the win to The Gamers. I've followed Rodriguez for a while and I have more faith in him developing along the lines of a Gamer than Peavey emerging beyond mid-level talent.

The Gamers vs. The Gifted: Cohoon vs. Morris

This is one of the biggest quandaries in my list. First there's Mark Cohoon, who blew through Low-A Savannah before stumbling in Binghamton... then blew through Binghamton before stumbling in Buffalo could be a year away from finding himself and getting back on the radar as the lefty Dillon Gee. Then there's Akeel Morris who's the exact opposite of the spectrum. He's not yet ready for Savannah but based on PURE stuff... he's one of our best.

Full Name: Mark E. Cohoon

Born: 09/15/1987

Birthplace: Burleson, TX

College: North Central Texas Col

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: L

Size-wise, Cohoon projects to be healthy and reliable physically. Stuff-wise, there just isn't a ton to love. His offerings are back of the rotation stuff, AT BEST, and he's not exactly "READY" for his major-league debut.

Yet, I still have faith that Cohoon will have uses in the major leagues. One, he's a lefty and lefties get an extra tick of confidence from me. Two, he's stumbled along the way through his progression but usually rights the ship in his second pass through a level. Three, he doesn't have a single iota of pressure.

He's not a member of Generation 2K and he's not even the first man on deck should the big club need a temporary arm. He's just gotta reestablish himself and focus on AAA for an entire year. If he can regain his form in 2012, he could be working his way into the back of the rotation OR bullpen for 2013.

Cohoon's Scouting Report:

Fastball: Featuring an 86-88 MPH fastball, topping out at 89, Cohoon can cut the pitch to either side of the plate. When at his best, he is able to use the pitches glove-side run and drop to give both right and left-handed hitters fits. It’s late action makes it difficult to barrel the ball and causes more than its share of ground balls and soft contact. Due to his ability to throw multiple breaking pitches for strikes, his velocity plays up at this level giving him an unfair advantage over younger, less seasoned wood-bat hitters.

On an isolated occasion, Cohoon struggled to locate his fastball to the point he dropped his velocity to 84-86 MPH just to throw strikes. A handful of 2-seam fastballs registered at 82 MPH which served as a strong reminder of just how little margin for error Cohoon has. In other leagues, he would have made an early exit.

Curveball: More of a slurve than true 12-6 offering, he was careful not to challenge hitters with the pitch, instead choosing to backdoor right-handed hitters and sweep it away from lefties. His least impressive pitch, it’s a fringe average to below offering at 70-74 MPH. Without enough bite to make batters swing-and-miss, it’s a pitch he may be forced to shelve has he climbs the ladder to focus on his fastball/changeup combination.

Changeup: With excellent arm action and the ability to spot on the outside corner to right-handed hitters seemingly at will, Cohoon’s changeup can be a weapon. At 81-83 MPH, he pulls down on the pitch which gives it excellent drop and fade away from righties. At present, he’s comfortable throwing it any count and has shown the ability to backdoor the change to lefties without risk of centering the plate.

Full Name: Akeel J. Morris

Born: 11/14/1992

Birthplace: St. Thomas, Virgin Islands

Height: 6' 1"

Weight: 170

Bats: R

Throws: R

I've heard it said that Morris can get the radar gun to show three digits. That alone is going to get someone listed on my "Gifted" group. Morris might have been the hardest TO HIT pitcher in Kingsport this season. Sadly... you don't need to HIT his pitches to get on base.

Akeel is a touch on the wild side and will need a year in Brooklyn (or repeating Kingsport) before I'll think he's ready for Savannah. He needs to learn to hit the strike zone with his pitches and... if he's going to be a starter, work on some secondary offerings. If he can do that, we should be getting excited.

I see most hard throwers like this and assume they'll be relievers. The same way some people heard Dan Warthen mouth off and assume Mejia is one. I'm not going to peg Akeel just yet but I'm really pulling for him to start as long as he can.

Morris' Scouting Report:

The only high school player taken by the Mets in the first ten rounds—actually, the first twenty rounds—Morris actually has some upside. Short and lanky, he’s just six-one, 170 pounds, and I don’t think he even looks that heavy. He does have a little projection left, but as a shorter guy, I wouldn’t expect too much more. According to Baseball America, he’s been clocked regularly at 87-89, touching 91, but a Virgin Islands newspaper mentioned him as touching 94, which jibes with MLB’s scouting video. He has a violent delivery that ends with him falling dramatically toward the first base side. He really has a rear-back-and-chuck-it type of delivery, and it will require some toning down. As is, I could see him having shoulder issues in the future, and his command looks pretty dreadful in its current format. In terms of polish, he’s very, very raw, not unexpected from a kid from the Virgin Islands. He throws a soft curve that has break, but he has no idea how to control the pitch, and it could use tightening and more velocity besides. I doubt the changeup is in his repertoire. There’s a lot of potential here, but he’ll need time, which he has, being one of the youngest players in the draft—he won’t turn 18 until November. The tenth round is the last round I draft in my shadow, and while I was looking at a couple college arms, I’ll follow the Mets’ lead here and select Morris.

My brain was telling me that I had to go with Cohoon based on his proximity to the majors and success at higher levels. My heart told me to dive deeper. What did I find?

Opposing hitters managed just a .166 AVG against Morris in 2011 and this, in turn, led to a 1.32 WHIP. Considering that control can be learned over time I'm willing to give this round to the Gifted.

The Gamers vs. The Gifted: Fuller vs. Tapia

We're starting to get some interesting names on the list. Tapia is listed towards the tail of the Generation 2K discussion with Akeel Morris. He's one of only a handful of guys who can make a radar gun flash three numbers at once and he's pretty young. Ironically he's up against a guy who can't get his fastball above 90.

Full Name: James Fuller

Born: 06/01/1987

Birthplace: Marlborough, MA

College: Southern Connecticut State

Height: 5' 10"

Weight: 180

Bats: L

Throws: L

Before the injury sidelined him for a full season Fuller was part of a trio of successful guys in Savannah. There was James Fuller, Mark Cohoon and Brandon Moore. There names were listed in THAT order for a reason. None of the guys had rocket arms but they were all flying through Savannah and onto bigger things. Cohoon skipped right by St. Lucie but Fuller took a more patient route and had okay success in his part of a season.

I love lefties who can throw strikes and think around a hitter. That is what Fuller is at his best and I think he will be again when he comes back. If I didn't think that I wouldn't have put him on the list. He's not assured a return to the Port St. Lucie rotation when he's healthy but my fingers are crossed that he can pick things up where he left off.

Fuller's Scouting Report:

Not a big kid, Jimmy Fuller might settle into a bullpen role shortly. He works comfortably in the high-80s from the left side with a meh curveball in the low-to-mid 70s and a decent slider and change-up.

Full Name: Domingo Tapia

Born: 12/16/1991

Birthplace: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Height: 6' 4"

Weight: 186

Bats: R

Throws: R

Pure potential is the word on Tapia... AND Morris for that matter. Any time you can throw a pitch 100 MPH it tends to indicate that you can do big things. Tapia is a LITTLE more refined than Morris but scouts love Morris' stuff a little more.

Tapia was okay in Kingsport but his 1 and only start in Brooklyn was the thing that excited me more. Six scoreless innings, five hits, six strikeouts... AND NO WALKS. I have Tapia playing in Brooklyn in 2012 but he could go even higher if he continues to look so polished. My one confusion is the limited number of K's in the Appalachian league. Only 30 K's in 50 innings... it's more odd than anything.

Tapia's Scouting Report:

The powerful righty is a man-child, listed at 6'4", 186 lbs and reports had him hitting 100 mph during instructs. He is Mejia-esque, working in the mid-90's with a two-seamer and what's more, he throws a ton of strikes. Big time sleeper candidate.

This one shouldn't surprise anyone. An injured gamer who has to regain everything or a young kid with a fireball who has impressed in his brief time with the Mets. Tapia takes this round for the Gifted.

The Gamers vs. The Gifted: Huchingson vs. Urbina

We're starting to get towards some players I happen to really like. Huchingson is a lefty... and crafty lefties are well... more valuable than crafty righties. Urbina on the other hand is a legacy prospect who has plus stuff and a bit of a faithful following.

Full Name: Daniel Chase Huchingson

Born: 04/14/1989

Birthplace: Fayetteville, AR

College: Central Arkansas

Height: 6' 5"

Weight: 197

Bats: L

Throws: L

Being essentially a giant (I'm 5'9"... anyone over 6'2" is a giant) Chase Huchingson actually skirts the border between gifted and gamer. 93 MPH isn't PHENOMENAL, but for a lefty it's pretty solid. He could even beef that MPH out a bit if he moved to the pen. I think the pen is where he'll end up but I also think he'll get the chance to start until he fails.

Most people will tell you that the jump from A+ to AA is a killer but the Mets have a friendly pitchers park in Savannah and that makes the jump to Port St. Lucie scary for a guy like Chase.

Huchingson's Scouting Report:

These phenoms in A-ball come along every year. Sometimes they are named Eric Beaulac while other times it Mark Cohoon. They dominate this level after coming out of college and, in the case of Chase, dominate at both a starter (1.77) or out of the pen (1.62). What I like from the 6-5 lefty is the 86-Ks in 80.0-IP. It’s obvious he will play St. Lucie next spring and I would love to see him stay in the pen.

He was described as having a 91-93 MPH fastball with little to no breaking stuff. That was college and things seem to have progressed.

Full Name: Juan Manuel Urbina

Born: 05/31/1993

Birthplace: Ocumare Del Tuy, Venezuela

Height: 6' 2"

Weight: 170

Bats: L

Throws: L


How can I say Huchingson (with a 91-93 MPH heater) is a gamer and Urbina (with 88-91 MPH) is gifted? The answer is in Urbina's changeup... and his age. Urbina is 4 years younger than Chase and still in a period of his life where adding horse-power is a REAL possibility. Add to this that he has a "Major League" breaking pitch and you can see why people are intrigued.

Sadly he has not turned his "stuff" into success in the minors. I think his time to cut the cheese as a starter is running out and despite his lack of success in the GCL or APP I have him moving on into Brooklyn. If he fails again he'll need to be moved into the bullpen because something isn't adding up.

Urbina's Scouting Report:

Widely regarded as the best International pitcher available, except some guy named Chapman, the Mets signed the 16yo to a $1.2MM bonus. Urbina already throws a 90MPH fastball, and a change that projects to be at least Major League average. He commands both pitches well, and has an extremely advanced feel for pitching, for a player so young. The downside is that he still struggles with his secondary offerings, and will need an improved Slider to experience significant success. The success rate for high profile 16yo Latin American pitchers isn’t great, but Urbina has all the makings of a good one. Expect for the Mets to have him make his U.S. debut in the GCL later this summer

Partially because Huchingson is almost classified as gifted and partially because he's farther along with more success than Juan, round 3 goes to the gamers.

The Gamers vs. The Gifted: Camarena vs. Goeddel

Yesterday we talked about Whitendon (who tops out as an innings eater) and Fulmer (who is so distant that I can't make a projection). Today we have two players with much better project-ability. Again... not necessarily phenomenal project-ability either.

Full Name: Marcos Camarena

Born: 09/08/1990

Birthplace: Culiacan, Mexico

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 202

Bats: R

Throws: R

I like Camarena. He's got the right body for a pitcher and I happen to like pitchers who keep Opp Avg down. My worry is that the higher level talents will start to figure out the pedestrian stuff that Camarena throws.

The flip side of this is that Camarena is plenty young and has room to grow. It also means that he has time to figure out higher level hitters and discover what works against them. He'll move into his first full-year action with the Mets and be promoted to Savannah. There, I imagine he might still succeed and see promotion to Port St. Lucie within a year, but... for Camarena Port St. Lucie and Binghamton will be make it or break it levels.

Camarena Scouting Report:

Camarena is one of the more talented Latin arms on the short-season teams. He’s been the innings eater for Brooklyn, leading the team in innings pitched. The 6-3 righty turns 21 next month and, after a good year in Brooklyn (3-3, 3.13, 13-starts), a projection to the Savannah rotation next spring seems to be a sure bet. ETA: 2015 Mets bullpen candidate

Full Name: Erik Van Norman Goeddel

Born: 12/20/1988

Birthplace: Hillsborough, CA

College: UC Los Angeles

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

The only thing that kept Goeddel this low on my list was the injury. He's recovered from it and has had a fine year in Savannah (mixing in a little GCL for rehab). I worry about the apparent decline in velocity which seems a bit off for a 23 year old.

Perhaps it'll return in 2012?

I see Goeddel given another chance to be a starter in 2012 but I think his promotion from Savannah will also see him transfer to the bullpen. Though he'll start in Savannah I would estimate a promotion could be possible after the first two months.

Goeddel Scouting Report:

When Goeddel was drafted he sported a fastball in the 94-97 MPH range as well as a curveball and a changeup. The fastball has lost SOME heat but that could all be adjustments to his approach. His curveball is his second best pitch and, because he lacks real command of the changeup, he projects as a relief pitcher. ETA: 2014 Mets bullpen candidate

In this second round match the Gamer happens to be a more distant prospect than his Gifted counter-part. He also happens to be two years younger and likely entering the same level for 2012. While I give round two to the gifted Goeddel I caution that I can also see Camarena out-pitching Goeddel in Savannah next season.

P.S. Van Norman is an AMAZING middle name!

The Gamers vs. The Gifted: Whitendon vs. Fulmer

I've ranked both Whitendon and Fulmer as the #10 on the respective Gamers and Gifted lists. Some might argue for either being higher on their list and I'd hear the arguments out.

Full Name: Anthony Taylor Whitenton

Born: 02/20/1988

Birthplace: Conyers, GA

College: Darton College

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

For those who tell you Whitendon will be nothing... there is some validity. He's not exactly blessed with anything spectacular. Also... success in Savannah doesn't translate into success ANYWHERE else. What you have to like is well... his ERA for 2011: 2.49, His K/9 for 2011: 9.56 and his WHIP: 1.12. I'm not a scout and I don't live near enough to Savannah to make any of the games but it would appear that scouts aren't that impressed.

Whitendon Scouting Report:

In game action, Whitenton works up in the zone with an 89-91 MPH fastball, 81-83 MPH changeup, and slurvy, mid-70′s curveball.

In all honesty, I probably liked Whitenton more than most as I see a couple of more miles in his frame and easy arm action. However, a scout commented the downward plane on his fastball was non-existent implying Whitenton will have significant difficulties at higher levels with his current repertoire.

And while it’s unlikely Whitenton will reach the big leagues without a spike in velocity AND significant refinement of his breaking pitches, the Mets have done much worse in terms of drafting small college arms with little to no upside.

I tend to look at results in the minors and focus on one key thing... PROGRESSION. Whitendon flopped in Savannah in 2010 but in 2011 he was a soaring success. In 2012 he'll move to Port St. Lucie and as long as he doesn't flame out he continues to slowly rise through the ranks to the exalted role of innings eater.

Full Name: Michael Joseph Fulmer

Born: 03/15/1993

Birthplace: Oklahoma City, OK

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Fulmer did not have a great splash into the minors with a few flame-out outings that showed he could get people to K but also that he's got a few problems to work out. Anyone who can reach the vaunted 95 MPH on the radar gun has a chance of being an impact in the majors but being almost a decade younger than me... he's hardly CLOSE.

Fulmer Scouting Report:

Fulmer is an attractive combination of stuff and polish. After a velocity bump this past spring, Fulmer is now throwing in the low-90s and can touch 95 from time to time. With a 6-3, 200-lb. frame, he might have a little bit more projection left in the tank, but the body is pretty mature right now. He's actually bordering on soft-bodied, and conditioning will be important for him going forward. In addition to the fastball, he throws a curve (which I've also seen referred to as a slider) and a changeup. While Fulmer's coaches even refer to the pitch as a slider, it acts more like a curve, but whatever you call it, it's impressive. He throws it with tight rotation and it has big downward break, coming in around 78. Even better: he can throw the pitch for strikes. He also has a changeup, but that's pretty much a non-factor right now, as is common with high school arms. But despite that, it's rare to see a prep curve ball as consistent as Fulmer's and it implies that he might move a little faster than most high school arms.

The battle between Gaming and Gifted pitchers comes down to a battle of odds. Odds are that Whitendon will continue a slow plodding progress up the ranks towards AAA. If he stops there... nobody would be surprised, but in all likelihood he could reach AAA in the next 3-4 years without much imagination. Fulmer, on the other hand, could spend 2-3 years in rookie ball before finding himself and he might NEVER find himself at all.

I give round 1 to the Gamers as Fulmer's ETA could be anywhere between 4 and 8 years.

The Gamers vs. The Gifted

In baseball prospect pitchers fall into two categories. They are either GIFTED with 95+ MPH heat, knee buckling curves, sharp breaking sliders and devious change-ups... OR... they are gamers and try to out-think the hitters with pretty average (for the majors) stuff. It's the difference between Mike Minor and Dillon Gee. The thing I like to remind people is that Gamers become major-leaguers JUST as often as the Gifted.

The Gifted:
I'm using Doc Gooden to review what I consider a "Gifted" player. Doc came up young because his arm was... FREAKY good. He flat out had some magical stuff that got him to the majors quickly and made him star VERY quickly. He had 10 seasons along the way where he managed 10+ wins and some clearly magical seasons where he was a Cy Young caliber guy.

The Gamers:
Rick Reed... was the most consistent Met pitcher for a couple years. He would never touch the stat line of someone like Doc Gooden, Nolan Ryan or Tom Seaver... but he did have 6 seasons with 10+ wins and plenty of years where he had a serviceable line. The thing with Gamers we forget is how effective they can end up being. We forget because they are AWFUL at fantasy baseball.

If someone asked me who I'd prefer between Reed and Doc... well I'd go with Doc every time, but I'd try to get BOTH first.

So... what I'm going to delve into over the next couple weeks are the top 10 Met prospects in the system as they sit in either category. More often than not, I've seen the Gamers reach the majors more than the Gifted, but it's the Gifted pitchers who can have the BIG TIME impact.

The Gamers: Top 10
1. Chris Schwinden
2. Colin McHugh
3. Darin Gorski
4. Brandon Moore
5. Armando Rodriguez
6. Mark Cohoon
7. James Fuller
8. Chase Huchingson
9. Marcos Camarena
10. Taylor Whitendon


The Gifted: Top 10
1. Matt Harvey
2. Jeurys Familia
3. Jenrry Mejia
4. Zack Wheeler
5. Gregory Peavey
6. Akeel Morris
7. Domingo Tapia
8. Juan Urbina
9. Erik Goeddel
10. Michael Fulmer