Christopher Soto - Spring Training Battles: Back End of the Bullpen

     This has been a no holds barred cage match between a large group of guys with many of them pitching fairly well so far this spring. The current bullpen consists of 4 RHP (3 sans Familia) and 1 LHP so Terry can pretty much go with any combination of guys above and still have a pretty balanced bullpen. For this analysis though we will assume that the opening day bullpen will consists of 5 RHP and 2 LHP giving us 1 RHP spot and 1 LHP spot to fill. In addition, I am making the assumption that Seth Lugo is taking the last spot in the bullpen as the 6th starter/long man for the duration that Jeurys Familia is suspended for.

2nd Left-Hander Job

• Josh Edgin | 8.1 IP, 4.32 ERA, 3 BB, 9 K, .179 AVG against
•      Edgin has the inside track on the job by virtue of the fact that he is out of options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first being passed through waivers. The consensus amongst folks in the industry right now believe that he would certainly be claimed by another if that happen. That aside.....Edgin has pitched well this spring after shaky off a bit of rust in the early going. His lack of 'premium" velocity though is still a bit of concern as he has failed to regain the ticks on his fastball that he lost due to Tommy John surgery. With other left handed options advancing in the minor league system, the club could decide that it can afford to risk potentially lose Edgin.

• Josh Smoker | 10.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 5 BB, 10 K, .200 AVG against
•       If Edgin were to be pushed.....this is the guy that would cause it. Smoker has been on the fast track to the MLB since the Mets resurrected him from the Independent Leagues in 2015. With a fastball that sits between 95-96 and can touch 100 mph and a wipeout slider that generates a ton of swings and misses, Smoker has the tools to be a premium MLB RP. The club also has quite a bit of confidence that he is ready for the MLB based on his performance in September last season. From Sept 3rd till the end of the season, Smoker faced 32 batters and struck out 14 of them (a 15.1 K/9 rate) while allowing a .241 Avg against.

• Adam Wilk | 9.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 2 BB, 7 K, .243 AVG against
•      Signed to a minor league deal with a camp invite in January, Wilk was supposed to have legitimate shot at competing for the 2nd lefty role this spring.....until Blevins was re-signed that is. Now he's on the outside looking in but that hasn't stopped him from pitching extremely well this Spring. Unless an injury occurs, Wilk seems destined for AAA-Las Vegas where he can either be deployed as the LOOGY down there or he can even be used as a SP. In either scenario, he's an arm that the club will likely hold onto for the 2017 season.
• ***Adam Wilk was already re-assigned to minor league camp so he is out of the running.***

• Sean Gilmartin | 6.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 3 BB, 4 K, .276 AVG against 
•       The former Rule 5 draft pick couldn't build off of his excellent 2015 bullpen season and was switched back to a SP in AAA-Las Vegas to provide the club some more depth last season. Based on his performance out of the bullpen so far this spring....it seems like he will likely be asked to do the same thing in 2017. With the numerous injury concerns in the club's rotation and the lack of higher end prospects forecasted to begin in AAA this season, Gilmartin could be one of the first arms called up should the injury bug plagued the Mets again.

• Tom Gorzelanny | 6.2 IP, 9.45 ERA, 4 BB, 6 K, .333 AVG against
•       Just like Wilk, Gorzelanny was signed to a minor league deal with a camp invite and was supposed to have a chance at winning this job before Blevins was re-signed. Unlike Wilk though, Gorzelanny has not looked very good this spring and is a candidate to be flat out released.

2nd Right-Hander Job

• Rafael Montero | 13.1 IP, 2.70 ERA, 7 BB, 20 K, .200 AVG against
•      Can the real Rafael Montero please stand up? If this is him....the Mets may finally be inclined to abandon hopes of him as a SP and carry him on the Opening Day roster as a low to mid leverage RP. The former control specialist is still having problems with his control this spring (4.7 BB/9) but the huge uptick in strikeouts (13.5 K/9) more than makes up for it. His stuff plus the ability to go multiple innings and makes him a perfect fit for an early bullpen usage innings eater role. The question is.....has the club seen enough to trust him?

• Ben Rowen | 10.1 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1 BB, 6 K, .156 AVG against
•      Why does a 28 year old an 82 mph fastball have the front office super excited? Well that would be because Mr. Rowen is a submarine style pitcher who has a career 1.85 ERA in the minor leagues. The Mets jumped on the opportunity and made Rowen their 1st minor league signing with a invitation to camp. So far he is proving exactly why the club likes him so much. In today's era of 95 mph+ fastballs from everyone in the MLB bullpen, Rowen gives opponents a very different/very strange look. Not only is the arm slot a rarity.....but his motion is almost wiffle ball like making it extremely difficult for a batter to get his timing right. Rowen has a VERY REAL chance of making it onto the MLB roster. The only thing giving the club pause is the fact that someone would have to be removed from the 40 man roster (or placed on the 60 Day DL) in order for them to add Rowen.
• ***Ben Rowen was re-assigned to minor league camp today so he is out of the running.***

• Paul Sewald | 10.1 IP, 1.74 ERA, 3 BB, 6 K, .143 AVG against
•      A rising bullpen star in the organization, Sewald has produced positive results as the closer for the St. Lucie, Binghamton, and Las Vegas teams over the past 3 seasons. Now he finds himself trying to force himself onto an MLB roster that is pretty crowded when it comes to right handed arms. Sewald doesnt really have the premium stuff most late inning RP have as his fastball only clocks in between 88-92 mph and his slider grades as a league average pitch. However, Sewald plays those pitches up with his unbelievable command of the lower half of the strike zone. It seems like Sewald will come up short this spring....but he may very well be getting a call to the big leagues at some point this season. 

• Erik Goeddel | 6.1 IP, 9.95 ERA, 0 BB, 9 K, .429 AVG against 
•      Goeddel has MLB experience......he's had MLB success......he possesses strikeout caliber stuff......unfortunately for him, he's coming off of elbow surgery and doesn't look like he is 100% yet. An assignment back to Las Vegas seems very much in the cards for him for now. However, since he IS on the 40 man roster, once the club does feel like he is ready, he could very well be the 1st right handed bullpen arm called up.
• ***Erik Goeddel was re-assigned to minor league camp today so he is out of the running.***

Christopher Soto - Spring Training Cuts

    The Mets have announced a round of cuts from Major League camp this morning.


Re-assigned to minor league camp
RHP Ben Rowen
OF Travis Taijeron

Optioned
IF Matt Reynolds to AAA-Las Vegas (2nd option year used)
SS Gavin Cecchini to AAA-Las Vegas (1st option year used)
RHP Erik Goeddel to AAA-Las Vegas (final option year used)

The Morning Report | deGrom's Immense Value, Time to Demote Parnell?, A Strange and Confusing Feeling, Wright Return Scheduled.

Business Insider's Cork Gaines featured The Top 25 players that have the greatest value to their team:

#18 Jacob deGrom - New York Mets - Position: SP
2014-15 WAR: 7.7 Wins
2014-15 WAR Value: $60.3 million
2015 Salary: $0.6 million

One thing to know: deGrom is the most valuable piece in what has become baseball's best rotation thanks to a 2.03 ERA and salary ($557,000) near the league minimum.

(Mack – Forget Yoenes Cespedes or Matt Harvey… deGrom is our most valuable Met, especially this season. It’s funny… his last three outing were not his best. His pitch count was up and he gave up far too many walks (10) than he or his pitching coach are comfortable with. That being said, the three outings produced a 1.67 and 1.86 ERA for the two months.
These are his bad outings. Crazy.)


Everybody seems to be writing Mets relief pitch stories after the Bobby Parnell debacle. One thing’s for sure… Parnell needs to be optioned out so someone can work on him in hopes of returning before the end of the season and being productive.

Everybody also seems to have a suggestion who should replace Parnell on the 25-man roster. Yesterday, I suggested Eric Goeddel, who is currently rehabbing and should be ready no later than next week.

Let me throw another name out there of someone that is already a member of the 40-man squad.

Dario Alvarez had a brief unsuccessful (and premature) cup of coffee last year (4-appearances, 13.50); however, he has rebounded with a banner season this year, first with AA-Binghamton (32-appearance, 3.19) and lately, almost lights out for AAA-Las Vegas (9-appearances, 2-0, 1.13 0.63). 
We all know how tough it is to put up these kind of numbers in Vegas. Oh yeah… one more thing… lefties are hitting .119 against him this season. 


Comment From MSW - Holy crap, it’s August, the Mets are in first place, and for the first time in a long time I have nothing to complain about. I feel strange, confused. What is this?

Jeff Sullivan: Well, there are always the Wilpons. And I mean that. There will probably literally always be the Wilpons. The family is unkillable

Mack – Don’t you find it strange that neither Wilpon has been heard from during this Mets surge? People say they don’t even see them sitting in the owner’s box lately. Is this the plan? Do you keep these guys hidden from the fans during the surge?

Mike Vorkunov | NJ Advance Media- David Wright will continue his rehab stint at St. Lucie Tuesday, accumulating at-bats and playing time as he tries to play his first major league game in more than four months. His return date could be coming up soon. According to reports, the Mets are looking at their series in Philadelphia at the beginning of next week as the time to bring him back. It would mean he had spent roughly two weeks rehabbing before playing again.

(Chris Soto: Boy...getting David Wright back for the final 6 weeks of the season is going to be such a massive boost to this club. Juan Uribe has been doing an excellent job holding down the fort defensively since coming to the Mets, but, outside of a few key hits, Uribe has been struggling at the plate as much as Campbell was. In his 19 games as a Met, Uribe is hitting .169 with K's in 27% of his plate appearances. I doubt anyone is expecting Wright to come back and crush 10 HRs in the month of September....but he can at least provide a .250+ batting average from 3B....Right?) 

The Morning Report 4.27.2015 | Subway Series Recap, Montero being Called Up, Wright to St. Lucie, Updated ZiPS projections.

Mets v. Yankees Series | Chris Soto: It sucks to lose the series to the Yankees....it really does but lets take a step back and recognize that the club is STILL 14-5 so far this season and carries a 6 Game Lead over the Miami Marlins and a 7 Game Lead over the Washington Nationals. In addition, it's not like the Yankees beat us.....the Mets beat themselves mostly. As good as Jacob deGrom is...he just didn't have a feel of the ball on Friday and that's ok! It happens, you can't be great 33 times a season. Even Clayton Kershaw had a 10 ER game last season and he won a Cy Young award. As for last night, it was all about errors, errors, errors. Knowing how bad the middle IF defense is; it's gonna happen. The positive things we need to take from this is that Plawecki looked good, Grandy and Murph's bats are starting to come around, Duda is still mashing against lefties, and Robles/Goeddel had strong performances out of the bullpen. Let's move on to the more important games and take these next 3 against the Marlins.

Matt Cerrone | Metsblog- Rafael Montero will start Tuesday against the Marlins, despite two uneven starts at Triple-A Las Vegas, Sandy Alderson said Saturday. Thursday, he allowed four runs on six hits in five innings (74 pitches). Montero, 24, was sent to Las Vegas on April 17 after starting the season in the Mets bullpen. He allowed two earned runs on four hits with four walks and seven strikeouts in 4 1/3 innings (4.15 ERA) before being demoted.

(Chris Soto: Don't read too much into this start, this is just a Mets strategy play to give the remaining starters and extra day of rest early in the season. The Mets are in the middle of a stretch where they play 13 games in 13 days before their next off day. It's actually a pretty smart strategy as it keeps Montero in a SP roles an gives him continued tastes at the MLB level while resting Harvey and deGrom AND bringing in a fresh bullpen are too. The club is likely to demote a RP (Goeddel?) for Montero's start, re-demote him, and then bring up a fresh arm (Leathersich?) the next day.


Steve Popper | North Jersey News- David Wright flew Sunday morning to Port St. Lucie, Fla., where he will resume baseball activities today. Wright is eligible to return from the disabled list Thursday, but the Mets don’t expect him to be with the team that quickly. "He’s going to start doing baseball activities," manager Terry Collins said. "Start catching ground balls. He’s going to start doing some jogging, running around the field a little bit. I think if he’s here by Saturday that would be really good." GM Sandy Alderson was asked if Saturday was realistic, but he said, "I’m not making predictions," and noted that the team would have a better idea after Wright gets on the field and begins the work.

(Chris Soto: This is a very good sign. For once I am glad that Wright is taking the slow approach to get healthy. The team has been solid without him, but with him the club would be even better. Campbell has filled in extremely well but he's going to get overexposed as pitchers adjust to his play. With off days before and after the 2 game series against Baltimore on May 5th and 6th, I think it's very reasonable to expect Wright back for that series.)

ZiPS Playoff Odds and Mean Standings, 4/24 pic.twitter.com/dHcc9SDLns
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) April 24, 2015

(Chris Soto: With the strong start, the ZiPS projection system now has the Mets and Nationals on pretty much equal footing. The Mets are entering another stretch where 10 of the next 12 games are against Division opponents. Boy if the Mets can take 7 or more of these games, they are going to have a SERIOUS leg up on the rest of the division for the rest of the season.)

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 6-26-13 – Carlos Beltran, Cesar Puello, Erik Goeddel, Angel Pagan, Tim Dierkes, Noah Syndergaard

Not the best nights for Mets pitching prospects. Both Zack Wheeler (Mets) and Rafael Montero (Las Vegas) forgot their main objective and that is to set up the game by pounding the zone with the fastball early in the game. It was nice to see Wheeler's curveball, but it was naked in the wind, especially since it seem like he was telegraphing the pitching by slowing down his delivery when he through it. Montero, on the other hand, just stunk up the place, giving up four runs in the first three innings. 

Let's chalk these up as their worse outings and take it from there. You know how important the future of this team sits on their right hand shoulder.

Andrew Vazzano ‏@AVSNY  - @RisingAppleBlog: The Mets should seriously consider signing Carlos Beltran after the season. Makes all the sense in the world.

                I hate when I start thinking the same as some of the Mets bloggers out there J

You all know I like this idea, especially if they can’t find themselves a long term solution for their three outfielder problems. A less talented version of this is in Queens right now… Marlin Byrd, and he, Juan Lagares, and Eric Young have helped stop the bleeding with a tight bandage. Beltran can give you one more solid year, slotted in between David Wright and Ike Davis in the lineup (think Wright, Beltran, Davis, d-Arnaud, Lucas Duda).

Look, it’s baby steps, but it’s a little bit better than today… which was a little bit better than (before Young) last month. 

Ted Berg ‏@OGTedBerg -  I asked Pedro Martinez, most dominant starter ever, about the most impressive pitchers he's seen this year. First name he said: Matt Harvey.

OF Cesar Puello - .338/.407/.616, 14-HR, 51-RBI through  58 games

This is about as good as you are going to get in the AA league. The AA all-star game is July 10^th and I’m sure he will ship out to Las Vegas the following day. Is there a chance he comes to Queens instead? No, right now the outfield is going to have to adjust first to the return of Ike Davis (probably this weekend) to first base. It is interesting though that he’s been playing more CF lately. Helps the marketing department.

Rich Coutinho ‏@coutinho9  - Marlon Byrd 10/35/.263, Justin Upton 15/34/.240, Ryan zimm 9/36/.269  Laroche 10/32/.251

RHP Erik Goeddel – 7-2, 3.72, 14-ST, 77.1-IP, 76-K, 28-BB

This is a guy no one ever talks about anymore. We’re all a little Harvey, Wheeler, Montero, and Syndergaard crazy, but, if these four weren’t in the system we’d be calling Goeddel a prospect. He’s also blocked out from AAA philosophy that sort of looks out of control. Would someone try and explain to me the future need of having D.J. Mitchell or Giancarlo Alvarado preventing a guy like Goeddel from elevation. Let’s write this off as another move that will happen the day after the all-star break. After that, there is no excuse.

Angel Pagan will have surgery to repair his torn hamstring, Giants manager Bruce Bochy announced. Out 12 weeks

Okay, we have some trading history here that has benefited each team and, frankly, the Giants did much better here what with both Beltran and Pagan for a nobody and a prospect just getting going.

Now, the least they need (for the rest of this season) is a good speedy defensive centerfielder that can lead off, not kick the ball around, OBP around .325 and steal a few bases. Insert either Juan Lagares or Eric Young Jr. or consider Marlon Byrd as well.

Gregor Blanco, Andres Torres and Juan Perez will be the starters and their two top prospects, Roger Kieschnick and Gary Brown have not been called up.

I would gladly take one of the two off their hands for their pick of our outfielders, including Lucas Duda.

Tim Dierkes -

MLBTR http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/analyzing-the-free-agent-starters.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter outlined the best of the 2014 free agent pitchers out there:

                        Innings eater – Bronson Arroyo, Hiroki Kuroda

                        Hardest Throwers – Jason Hammel, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza

                        Best Control – Bartolo Colon, Erwin Santana, Dan Haren

                        Extreme Ground Ballers – Chien-Ming Wang, Jake Westbrook, Tim Hudson, Phil Hughes

                        Low opponent BA – Jason Marquis

                        Lowest ERA – Santana (2.64), Kuroda, Colon

Folks, I’m not thrilled with spending a ton of money on any of them. I think the system is producing the future rotation of this team through 2020. The money needs to be spent on every day players, either through free agency, International signing that will hopefully pan out down the road, and trades for some of the young pitchers the Mets will never use.

A perfect example is a guy that we wrote about earlier in this piece. Erik Goeddel should be able to get you a quality AA prospect ready to move into AAA, either as an outfielder, or a shortstop.

 Jonathan Mayo on Noah Syndergaard –

“He could end up being the best player in the deal, though it may take more time for him to develop.”

He also ranked him 23^rd today on the new updated Baseball America Top 50 Prospects (Travis d-Arnaud was #28). Mayo also is on paper last December saying that Thor was ‘ahead’ of Zack Wheeler was at at the same time. I love all this… Thor ahead of Wheeler who was ahead of Harvey.

Stephen Guilbert - 5 and Minors: Five Met Minor Leaguers Who Need to Have Big 2012 Seasons

5 and Minors: Five Met Minor Leaguers Who Need to Have Big 2012 Seasons


By - Stephen Guilbert

Wilmer Flores

Needs: A lot. Wilmer needs to prove that he can play defense sufficiently at third. He needs to start slugging like his frame suggests and he needs to prove his hitting ability against upper level pitching.

Last year: Flores has gone from being dubbed “the next Miguel Cabrera” to a prospect many think will be a first baseman without enough bat to ever stick at the position in the majors.

Stats: There are some positives from the 2011 season for Flores. He only struck out 68 times in 516 at bats as a 19 and 20-year-old in the Florida State League and his 81 RBI look nice on stat sheets as well. On the flip side, Flores walked only 27 times, hit .269 and without much power (.380 slugging). The power has to start improving as he gets older and matures as a hitter.

Position: Flores needs to prove that he can stick at third base. While Flores does not have the foot speed for shortstop, he has a cannon for an arm and if he is going to remain (regain?) elite prospect status, he will have to stick at third. The bat just is not enough for first and he is too slow to be an outfielder. A third baseman with contact who can hit .270 and 10-15 HR will play in the majors. If Flores pushes his power up towards 20 home runs, starts walking more and can prove he is apt defensively at third, he becomes a top prospect again.

Ideal 2012 for Wilmer: 500 AB, 20 HR, at least 50 walks all the while playing passable defense at third (at minimum).

Cesar Puello

Needs: To prove that power and speed are a combination and not an “either or”, needs to prove he can get on base and cut down on his strikeouts.

Stats: Puello broke out once already in a big way in 2010 when he stole 45 bases and hit .292 as a 20-year-old in Savannah. Just as impressively, he got on base 37.5% of the time which led to 80 runs in only 469 at bats. In 2011, however, the OBP dipped to .313 and Puello struck out more than five times for every walk he took (103 to 18). What Puello did improve on was his power stroke, mashing 10 home runs, up from the single long ball he hit the year before.

Five Tools: Puello needs to prove that he is the bat to watch in this system. We saw the speed in 2010, the power in 2011, all the while an inconsistent ability to get on base. Puello needs to focus on his pitch selection, start taking more walks, and work on becoming the true five-tool player many believe he can be. There is little by way of hitting prospects that project to above average major leagues at this point in the Mets system and Puello needs to prove that he can match results with athleticism and ability.

Ideal 2012 for Cesar: 15 HR, 40 steals, gets the OBP back over .350 while doing it against AA pitching.

Jenrry Mejia

Needs: Prove health and ability to start.

Please no bullpen: Health. It is that simple. I have been an advocate for Mejia as a starter ever since, well, he was taken out of that role. He has made excellent strides in his recovery and many think he is destined for a relieving duties for his career. However, Mejia’s talent before the move to the bullpen and the surgery suggested nothing but a front of the rotation starter. When Mejia starts competing again sometime in May, he needs to build his arm strength and prove that he has the longevity and ability to get elite hitters out throughout the course of long starts.

Ceiling and Potential: Think about how much more imposing the Mets rotation prospects become when you factor in Mejia. We have heard so much about Wheeler, Harvey, and Familia while Mejia in many ways has taken the back pages. I attribute this to the consensus among the blogosphere that Mejia is destined for the bullpen. I say that until it is clear beyond a doubt that Mejia’s true calling is as a reliever (be it ineffectiveness as a starter or injury that keeps him from that role), that he should get every chance to prove he can become the blue-chip ace we all thought he was going to be a few years ago. Mejia is still young and the sky is still the limit for him. He needs to prove he can perform and excel now when the odds are against him. Mejia’s return from injury and progress in the minors could make the most significant difference as any single player in the minors this season.

Ideal 2012 for Jenrry: Healthy.

Cory Vaughn

Needs: Cut down on the strikeouts, prove himself in the mid/upper minors.

Stats: What a roller coaster Vaughn has had since being drafted. As one of my favorite players in the Mets system, I am rooting for this guy and I hope he can have a breakout 2012 and prove he is one of the top outfielders in the system. Vaughn struggled in the FSL and in a significant sample size as well (.219 in 210 at bats). The strikeouts have never been pretty and although Vaughn will probably never be a contact-first hitter, he needs to find a way to strike out less than the 25.7% of his plate appearances (as he did in 2011).

Dark Horse: To his credit, Vaughn is still getting on base and the power is still there. This is a player who once was thought to be Carlos Beltran’s replacement because of his raw talent. Vaughn should start the year in the FSL again and if all goes well, taste AA by the end of the summer. This kid needs to have a .300-20-80 season while stealing a few bases and striking out less than 20% of the time. No one deserves to have a break out season more than Vaughn and I truly hope he can put it all together in 2012. Keep in mind that this is a guy who hit 14 home runs in 264 at bats in 2010 for Brooklyn. Don’t write him off yet.

Ideal 2012 for Cory: .300, 30 HR, K:BB ratio below 2.0, 20 steals. Vaughn’s 2010 season extrapolated over 500 at bats would give him a line looking like this: 27 HR, 106 RBI, 23 steals. So no, that projection is not out of the question.

Erik Goeddel

Needs: Health, consistency.

Big Five? This might be an odd choice for this list but I have been high on Goeddel ever since we drafted him in 2010 but injuries have hampered his projection and development in his short career thus far. Goeddel had a strong finish to 2011 and he still has the potential to remain a starter. When he was drafted, a lot of experts though he could become a nice mid-rotation starter, maybe even a #2 or ace if all goes well. He has the potential to live up to that lofty projection but as a 23-year-old who will likely start in Savannah this year, he needs to start dominating and advancing through the system the way we thought he was going to when we pried him away from returning to UCLA in 2010. Imagine what Goeddel would add if he dominates early in the year so much so that he catches up to Wheeler in AA by the end of the summer. I like this pitcher a lot and he still has the time and talent to become an elite starter for this team. Keep an eye on him this year.

Ideal 2012 for Erik: Health, first off. Secondly, dominance in Savannah and St. Lucie so by season's end he becomes the #2 Binghampton starter behind Wheeler. I care less about stats as much as health, consistency, and movement upwards through the minors for Erik.

--Stephen

I May Be Wrong, But… Goeddel, FU Money, A.J., Draft Bonus Pool

·                     I emailed SP Erik Goeddel and asked what his goals were this ST. He emailed back:

Hey Mack, This spring training my main focus is on my off-speed pitches. With the change up I'm looking to get consistent with my movement on the ball. Sometimes it breaks straight down (which is what I want) and sometimes it cuts. Im trying to get rid of the cutting changes. Then with my slider and curveball, my main focus is going to be improving my command so in situations where I need to get one over for a called strike I can, and so when I need a swing and miss I can throw them just out of the zone and not catch too much plate.

Erik seems to have his pitcher head on straight. You can get to AA someday, but you will never survive there without command. 

·                  Christopher Roy emailed me:

·                     I'm confused when i read that teams may be willing to pay between $20M - $24M  over 4 yrs for a 19 yr old kid .. this makes no sense to me when u consider that the 1st 3 years will be spent in the minors .. so that means some team is willing to pay a minor leaguer $5M - $6M per year or $15M - $18M total… am i missing something?

Mack:  No, you’re missing everything.

Chris, this is all supply and demand. If someone what you more that you want them, the bucks go up immediately. Ten more home wins person, and create two playoff games, make these kind of investments look like chump change. It’s baseball craps. You roll the dice and hope you make your number.

When I was in broadcasting, friends would pay me $1000 to speak to their sales staffs. Trangers, who never met me, but read my resume, aid me $10,000.

That’s how the “supply and demand” works.

·                     I couldn’t help but notice A.J. Burnett’s comments about being a Yankees pitcher… "I let a few too many people tinker with me...''

A note to all pitching coaches:  Not everybody does this the same way. What works for one doesn’t for the other and please remember why you either drafted or signed these guys. They did pitch well the year before they came under your control, right? 

I know your heart is in the right place, but you can’t make every pitcher throw with the same mechanics as Pedro Martinez or Johan Santana.

If you don’t like the way they throw (Heilman, Holt, Wheeler), than don’t add them to your team.

·                     Here is how much the Mets spent last year on draft bonuses, both in   the first 10 rounds and in total.

Bonus Pool  $7,151,400

2011/Top 10  $5,070,000

2011/Total  $6,782,500

This is the 9^th largest pool number in the league this year which will give the Mets an edge come draft day. The new collective bargaining agreement rewards teams that do not participate heavily in free agency, so we look for the Mets to stay in this range for at least two years.

Mets: Zach Lutz , Jeff Stevens, Erik Goeddel, Akeel Morris, Mike Nickeas

2-3-12: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/3/2760606/2012-amazin-avenue-top-50-mets-prospects-20-16   3B Zach Lutz - I know I'm going out on a limb here, which I said I don't like to do. I also know I may be the last one on the Lutz bandwagon, but I still can't let go of his superior all-around offensive ability displayed thoroughly at the highest levels of the minors. I've said it before and it's still true today, the '07 fifth rounder has quietly become the best all-around hitter in the Mets farm system. The problem is that he just can't stay healthy, having surpassed 100 games in a season just once in his pro career. But hear me out: While I more than most try to take players to task for poor health -- as the ability to stay on the field is indeed a skill -- 2011 was not his fault. Yes he missed time with a hamstring, but the errant foul ball that broke his finger in the dugout? The wild pitch that concussed him after he returned? The second wild pitch that concussed him just two weeks later? I can't penalize him for all that, especially since when he played he raked as usual, posting yet another .200+ ISO. It's going to be easy to forget about Lutz going forward and if you're concerned about the long-term effects of the concussions, that's completely fair. But if he's healthy, in my opinion he's an easy top ten prospect.

RHP Jeff Stevens - On Dec. 16th the Mets signed another former top prospect in the hard-throwing Stevens. The 28-yr old is best known as the PTBNL in the notorious Minaya-authored Brandon Phillips to the Indians Brandon Phillips to the Reds deal. After some moderate success as a minor league closer, the hard-throwing righty made a handful of appearances with the Cubs between '09 and '11, but nothing of note (see, 6.27 ERA). However, he possesses a very good low-to-mid 90's fb and has always boasted good K-rates, but walks have been a real issue. To me, we could become another Brian Stokes-esque back of the staff reliever. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/1/31/2753903/taking-inventory-of-the-mets-minor-league-free-agents

2-2-12: - http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/33-erik-goeddel/  - Erik Goeddel is smart, and the ability to think through at-bats and self-analyze will help him along the way. In 2011, he was very concerned with maintaining the tempo of his delivery.  He had a tendency to go too slowly, and lose fluidity and his release point.  His goal, at the urging of Sand Gnats’ pitching coach Glen Abbott was to speed up his delivery to stay in sync. 2011: Goeddel was absolutely lights out in May, and seemed to be well on his way to a second-half promotion to advanced-A St. Lucie before coming down with his shoulder soreness.  His May: 25 IP, 14 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 27 K.  Yum.  However, he just wasn’t the same pitcher when he returned to the Gnats in August.

2-3-12: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/3/2760606/2012-amazin-avenue-top-50-mets-prospects-20-16 RHP Akeel Morris- After flashing electric stuff in his pro debut with the GCL Mets in 2010, the former tenth round selection followed up by featuring some of the most dominant stuff in the entire Appy League last season. Morris dominated rookie league hitters with a mid-90’s fastball that touched 96 mph as well as a developing 12-to-6 curve that currently shows potential to be an average major league pitch. Even more impressive, for the second straight season he posted a 10+ K/9 while holding opponents to a completely ridiculous .166 average, by far the lowest mark in the league. You do not see dominance like that from a teenager often. However, the problem is Morris also posted a 6+ BB/9 for the second straight season, demonstrating the key issue for Virgin Islands native going forward. Although the big question I have about the 19-yr old Morris is that if/when he does begin throwing more strikes – which he will have to do to take the next step and become a blue-chipper -- does he have the stuff to continue to baffle more disciplined hitters? Obviously we know that his stuff is very, very good; but it most certainly plays up as a result of inferior competition that will swing at pitches anywhere near the zone. When he reaches the point where the hitters stop swinging, will his fastball be as effective when he has to put it in the zone? Well the short answer is that unless he’s the second coming on Gooden it won’t. But how big of a hit will he take? The answer to that question will determine whether he truly does have a ceiling as a future star or if he’s just another hard-thrower whose suspect command derailed his career.

Despite his offensive struggles throughout his career, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Mike Nickeas is penciled in as the Mets’ backup catcher for the upcoming season. Whereas the team looked for a platoon last year with Ronny Paulino and Josh Thole, the situation in 2012 figures to be one in which Thole is the starter and Nickeas is the backup. The one thing that Nickeas might be able to provide this year is defense, a topic he discussed with Ted Berg last year. If Thole stays healthy all year, Nickeas might be able to stick with the Mets, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a rotation of backup catchers between Buffalo and Queens. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/3/2768339/2012-mets-player-profile-mike-nickeas

Mets: Erik Goeddel, Johan Santana, Future Shock, $90mil Payroll

1-11-12 -  metsmerizedonline  44.  Erik Goeddel (RHP) Goeddel just needs to pitch. He has the arsenal, and the talent to pitch in the bigs, he just needs to show that his arm can hold up to the rigors of a full season. He throws a low-90′s fastball, a curve, slider, and a change-up. For Goeddel it’s all about conditioning and stamina, and staying healthy. After he was drafted by the Mets in the 22nd round of the 2010 draft, he only pitched one inning for the Mets that summer before being shut down early with arm fatigue. 2011 was his first full season in professional ball, but in May was diagnosed with a rotator cuff strain and missed ten weeks while it healed completely. In a recent interview I did with Erik, he said he is fully recovered from that injury and he hopes to log at least 100 innings this year. That is a good target for him and if he can reach 100 innings and add about 25 innings per season over the next two years, he will be able to remain a starter. If the workload again proves to be too much for him, he may be destined for the bullpen.

Just like Mets GM Sandy Alderson, Johan Santana knows he won’t have any answers about how much his left arm has recovered from September, 2010 shoulder surgery until spring training. “My arm will let me know how I feel,” Santana said. “Time will tell. We’ll see how it feels. I cannot tell you what’s gonna happen 5-6 weeks from now.” As of Thursday, when Santana spoke on a conference call after long-tossing in Port St. Lucie, the lefty said his arm felt good and he expected to be ready for the start of spring training next month, but has learned after numerous setbacks not to make any predictions. http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/metsblog/mets_santana_progressing_but_weary_a7V1SSDXyr0ahgKY5mfDbJ#ixzz1jHGaggKG

Future Shock: It would be a developmental disaster, IMHO, to push any of the prospects before their time, but perhaps Kirk Nieuwenhuis goes north as the 5th outfielder and someone like Robert Carson or Josh Edgin get the last bullpen spot. The Mets most likely plan to market the Harveys, Wheelers, etc. heavily in the coming months and it might be tempting to use one or more of these guys as teasers for the steady stream of good young players that they hope will soon follow. I don’t think that either Terry Collins or Sandy Alderson are in danger of losing their jobs, so they don’t have to promote any of these guys early to save their skins, a la Omar and Jerry with Jenrry Mejia. While I am intrigued by some of the Mets prospects, I really don’t want to see any of here until this September at the earliest. http://www.metstoday.com/7367/11-12-offseason/i%e2%80%99ve-got-23%e2%80%a6/

So what will $90 million buy the Mets in 2012? With the aid of a shortened outfield, the Mets will without a doubt outscore some much higher payrolls. The unfortunate part of that equation is that the pitching staff..which will bear the majority of the burden for the franchise's new thrifty approach, will give up far more runs that its offense can overcome. Ultimately, Fred Wilpon's new $90 million dollar New York Mets will find themselves lucky to win 70 games next season. And to be perfectly honest...if the Mets only forfeit seven wins off last year's total in the process of shedding nearly $50 million dollars in payroll...we should consider ourselves lucky as well. http://networkedblogs.com/sEttY

The Gamers vs. The Gifted: Camarena vs. Goeddel

Yesterday we talked about Whitendon (who tops out as an innings eater) and Fulmer (who is so distant that I can't make a projection). Today we have two players with much better project-ability. Again... not necessarily phenomenal project-ability either.

Full Name: Marcos Camarena

Born: 09/08/1990

Birthplace: Culiacan, Mexico

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 202

Bats: R

Throws: R

I like Camarena. He's got the right body for a pitcher and I happen to like pitchers who keep Opp Avg down. My worry is that the higher level talents will start to figure out the pedestrian stuff that Camarena throws.

The flip side of this is that Camarena is plenty young and has room to grow. It also means that he has time to figure out higher level hitters and discover what works against them. He'll move into his first full-year action with the Mets and be promoted to Savannah. There, I imagine he might still succeed and see promotion to Port St. Lucie within a year, but... for Camarena Port St. Lucie and Binghamton will be make it or break it levels.

Camarena Scouting Report:

Camarena is one of the more talented Latin arms on the short-season teams. He’s been the innings eater for Brooklyn, leading the team in innings pitched. The 6-3 righty turns 21 next month and, after a good year in Brooklyn (3-3, 3.13, 13-starts), a projection to the Savannah rotation next spring seems to be a sure bet. ETA: 2015 Mets bullpen candidate

Full Name: Erik Van Norman Goeddel

Born: 12/20/1988

Birthplace: Hillsborough, CA

College: UC Los Angeles

Height: 6' 3"

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

The only thing that kept Goeddel this low on my list was the injury. He's recovered from it and has had a fine year in Savannah (mixing in a little GCL for rehab). I worry about the apparent decline in velocity which seems a bit off for a 23 year old.

Perhaps it'll return in 2012?

I see Goeddel given another chance to be a starter in 2012 but I think his promotion from Savannah will also see him transfer to the bullpen. Though he'll start in Savannah I would estimate a promotion could be possible after the first two months.

Goeddel Scouting Report:

When Goeddel was drafted he sported a fastball in the 94-97 MPH range as well as a curveball and a changeup. The fastball has lost SOME heat but that could all be adjustments to his approach. His curveball is his second best pitch and, because he lacks real command of the changeup, he projects as a relief pitcher. ETA: 2014 Mets bullpen candidate

In this second round match the Gamer happens to be a more distant prospect than his Gifted counter-part. He also happens to be two years younger and likely entering the same level for 2012. While I give round two to the gifted Goeddel I caution that I can also see Camarena out-pitching Goeddel in Savannah next season.

P.S. Van Norman is an AMAZING middle name!