Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Third Basemen)

     So far we have improvement at the C and SS positions, same lackluster production at 1B, and same solid production at 2B. What can we expect from 3B?

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013

Players: David Wright, Wilmer Flores, Justin Turner, Josh Satin, Zach Lutz, Omar Quintanilla
Stats:.290 AVG/.365 OBP/.459 SLG, 20 HR, 80 RBI, 17 SB, 35 2B, 6 3B, 71 BB, 130 K
(4th in MLB OPS)

     There's no question that the Captain is one of the best 3B in the game today. Despite playing in only 112 games this season he finished in the Top 5 in AVG, OBP, SLG, and WAR and 1st in the MLB in triples and SBs. In fact, Wright was in line to finish what would have been a career season as he was projected to finish the year worth 8.6 Wins Above Replacement. Its the replacements after him that drag the position down as Turner, Satin, and Lutz filled the void until Flores was promoted, who then played with an injured ankle the rest of the season.

2014

Starter: David Wright

Steamer Projections: .289 AVG/.376 OBP/.476 SLG, 22 HR, 91 RBI, 16 SB, 83 BB, 123 K

     The team missed out on what would have been a career year for Wright. Last time he topped 8.0+ WAR he regressed slightly but still ended up posting a 6.8 WAR season with more power. STEAMER believes history will repeat itself but don't be surprised if Wright has another ridiculous season Top 3 3B season.

Verdict: Push with some upside- Come On.....Its David Wright.

Mack - Okay, here's where I will start to get some flak.

Wright turned 31 this year and just got married (whatever that means). Sadly, IMO, you are going to begin to see the slow deterioration of the one player that has given this team any level of respect over the last five years.

It may not be that obvious in 2014, but it will begin. The one hope here is guys like Chris Young and Curtis Granderson will create a situation where Wright will get more balls down the pipe to hit.

Still, I don't see 2014 as being a banner year for Wright. Under 20-HRs... under 75-RBIs.

More Stuff - Shaun Marcum, Zack Wheeler, Zach Lutz, Carlos Beltran, Michael Bourn

Shaun Marcum –

“My main reason in my interest in the Mets was an opportunity to go out & make 30 starts and my ties with JP Ricciardi. I talked to David Wright and John Buck. Buck was my catcher in 2010 when I had my best year. I have a comfort level with Buck. This is a place I like. They gave me a chance. The way I feel right now, I'm looking forward to getting the ball rolling."

Zack Wheeler –

“Naturally, I hope I could make the team. But, I’m prepared to pitch wherever they send me… I just hope to put up some good numbers this spring and show them what I can do.”

 Rob Castellano

3B Zach Lutz - The 26-year-old showed, once again, that he can hit in 2012. In fact, it was the third straight season he posted an OPS at or near .900 at Triple-A Buffalo, showcasing what's become a familiar mix of power, patience, and raw hitting ability. Yet, the problem, as always, is that no matter how much he hits he's blocked by David Wright. What's more, his bulky frame doesn't profile anywhere else but first -- where he's also blocked. However, the Mets severe dearth of right-handed pop means Lutz will apparently get reps in the outfield this spring. He should hit if given the opportunity, the only question is whether the shoddy defense is worth the bat -- and if/when the Mets get desperate we'll likely find out. Additionally, a lot of the same can be said for the similarly road blocked Josh Satin, though with less pop in his bat.

Like Josh Satin, Lutz has spent his entire Mets career blocked and yet neither of the two were picked in the Rule 5 Draft. In the case of Lutz, he’s had every unlucky injury imaginable. It’s simply too late for him to be converted to an outfielder and the shame is that another great minor league bat was wasted.

Danny Abriano

Carlos Beltran- Yes, Carlos Beltran.  The player who many fans blame for the Mets not making the World Series in 2006.  The guy who won Game 1 of the NLCS by himself, but had the gall to be unable to hit an un-hittable curveball in the 9th inning of Game 7.  The best all around outfielder the Mets ever had.  Beltran will be 37 heading into 2014, but is still very productive.  He’s no longer elite defensively, but his offensive game is still there.  He hit .269 with 32 home runs and 97 RBI’s for St Louis last year, and should be available for a reasonable one or two year deal after this season.  If his 2013 resembles his 2012, the Mets should ponder bringing him back as a second piece that complements the addition of either Ellsbury, Gomez, or Choo.

This is what we call “reaching” during a period when you’ve run out of things to write about. I love Beltran, but his days in New York are over. Well, maybe I shouldn’t say that. He would fit in, age wise, perfectly with the Yankees.

Chris Cwik

Overall, those numbers don’t bode well for Michael Bourn. If there is a silver lining, however, it’s that the players who were able to maintain or improve on their stolen base rates over the next three seasons were the ones that received a lot of playing time. That does give some hope that Bourn might lucky enough to maintain his skills over the next three years. Giving Bourn a five-year deal would be a tough pill to swallow. The decline rate for these players is high enough in their early thirties, but it really jumps once they hit 33 or 34. Bourn had the most stolen bases of any player included in this study, which is another reason for optimism, at least in the short run. But the risk with speedy players is very real as they get into their 30s. The Mets are wise to be cautious in this scenario.

I think even Scott Boras is beginning to realize that his client isn’t going to get a 5-year deal. It’s simply too late in both the off-season process and the age of his client. Look for an opt-out one-year deal to develop that could result in a team getting back a 2^nd round draft pick in 2014 after losing a first round pick in 2013. Now, all you have to do is find someone that wants this dude for only one year.

Mack On: Zach Lutz, Jon Niese, Fernando Martinez, Court Ruling

3-5-12 – Stock Down – I can’t believe it but Lutz actually had another cheezy bad luck ding in the second intra-squad game. Seems a wild Bobby Parnell put a heater off Zach’s wrist. Everybody said everythi was a-ok, but that’s what they said last year when Ike Davis tapped David Wright on that pop up in front of the catcher. We’’ll have to see how bad luck Lutz comes 0ut of this one.

David Regan of the NYT had nothing but love for Jon Niese Monday morning:

Niese is my pick to be the Mets’ best pitcher this year, and  it might be a runaway

I agree. Niese has a killer curve that is basically unhittable. And, for some reason, he seems to successfully stay below media scrutiny which always helps. It’s early, but my guess right now is he will line up as the SP2 behind R.A. Dickey.

F-Mart went 2-2, with a walk, in his first ST game with Houston. Look, let’s not wish the kid any bad karma. He’s not a Met any longer because he couldn’t keep healthy and other outfield prospects pushed him out the door. That’s how the minor leagues work. You keep him around and you can’t play Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Josh Satin, and Juan Lagares every day. His time was over as a Met and he was worth nothing in a trade. I wish him well.

Regarding the court ruling yesterday, don’t care. Not my problem. Go sell a building. I got my on problems.

Mets: Zach Lutz , Jeff Stevens, Erik Goeddel, Akeel Morris, Mike Nickeas

2-3-12: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/3/2760606/2012-amazin-avenue-top-50-mets-prospects-20-16   3B Zach Lutz - I know I'm going out on a limb here, which I said I don't like to do. I also know I may be the last one on the Lutz bandwagon, but I still can't let go of his superior all-around offensive ability displayed thoroughly at the highest levels of the minors. I've said it before and it's still true today, the '07 fifth rounder has quietly become the best all-around hitter in the Mets farm system. The problem is that he just can't stay healthy, having surpassed 100 games in a season just once in his pro career. But hear me out: While I more than most try to take players to task for poor health -- as the ability to stay on the field is indeed a skill -- 2011 was not his fault. Yes he missed time with a hamstring, but the errant foul ball that broke his finger in the dugout? The wild pitch that concussed him after he returned? The second wild pitch that concussed him just two weeks later? I can't penalize him for all that, especially since when he played he raked as usual, posting yet another .200+ ISO. It's going to be easy to forget about Lutz going forward and if you're concerned about the long-term effects of the concussions, that's completely fair. But if he's healthy, in my opinion he's an easy top ten prospect.

RHP Jeff Stevens - On Dec. 16th the Mets signed another former top prospect in the hard-throwing Stevens. The 28-yr old is best known as the PTBNL in the notorious Minaya-authored Brandon Phillips to the Indians Brandon Phillips to the Reds deal. After some moderate success as a minor league closer, the hard-throwing righty made a handful of appearances with the Cubs between '09 and '11, but nothing of note (see, 6.27 ERA). However, he possesses a very good low-to-mid 90's fb and has always boasted good K-rates, but walks have been a real issue. To me, we could become another Brian Stokes-esque back of the staff reliever. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/1/31/2753903/taking-inventory-of-the-mets-minor-league-free-agents

2-2-12: - http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/33-erik-goeddel/  - Erik Goeddel is smart, and the ability to think through at-bats and self-analyze will help him along the way. In 2011, he was very concerned with maintaining the tempo of his delivery.  He had a tendency to go too slowly, and lose fluidity and his release point.  His goal, at the urging of Sand Gnats’ pitching coach Glen Abbott was to speed up his delivery to stay in sync. 2011: Goeddel was absolutely lights out in May, and seemed to be well on his way to a second-half promotion to advanced-A St. Lucie before coming down with his shoulder soreness.  His May: 25 IP, 14 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 27 K.  Yum.  However, he just wasn’t the same pitcher when he returned to the Gnats in August.

2-3-12: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/3/2760606/2012-amazin-avenue-top-50-mets-prospects-20-16 RHP Akeel Morris- After flashing electric stuff in his pro debut with the GCL Mets in 2010, the former tenth round selection followed up by featuring some of the most dominant stuff in the entire Appy League last season. Morris dominated rookie league hitters with a mid-90’s fastball that touched 96 mph as well as a developing 12-to-6 curve that currently shows potential to be an average major league pitch. Even more impressive, for the second straight season he posted a 10+ K/9 while holding opponents to a completely ridiculous .166 average, by far the lowest mark in the league. You do not see dominance like that from a teenager often. However, the problem is Morris also posted a 6+ BB/9 for the second straight season, demonstrating the key issue for Virgin Islands native going forward. Although the big question I have about the 19-yr old Morris is that if/when he does begin throwing more strikes – which he will have to do to take the next step and become a blue-chipper -- does he have the stuff to continue to baffle more disciplined hitters? Obviously we know that his stuff is very, very good; but it most certainly plays up as a result of inferior competition that will swing at pitches anywhere near the zone. When he reaches the point where the hitters stop swinging, will his fastball be as effective when he has to put it in the zone? Well the short answer is that unless he’s the second coming on Gooden it won’t. But how big of a hit will he take? The answer to that question will determine whether he truly does have a ceiling as a future star or if he’s just another hard-thrower whose suspect command derailed his career.

Despite his offensive struggles throughout his career, the soon-to-be 29-year-old Mike Nickeas is penciled in as the Mets’ backup catcher for the upcoming season. Whereas the team looked for a platoon last year with Ronny Paulino and Josh Thole, the situation in 2012 figures to be one in which Thole is the starter and Nickeas is the backup. The one thing that Nickeas might be able to provide this year is defense, a topic he discussed with Ted Berg last year. If Thole stays healthy all year, Nickeas might be able to stick with the Mets, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a rotation of backup catchers between Buffalo and Queens. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/3/2768339/2012-mets-player-profile-mike-nickeas

Mets – Josh Edgin, Matt Harvey, Zach Lutz, Zack Wheeler, Terry Leach

1-8-11: - http://nybaseballdigest.com/2012/01/07/most-intriguing-mets-prospects-in-2012/  4) Josh Edgin (LHP) – Sandy Alderson talked about Robert Carson as someone who could be an option in the pen as a lefty, I would watch out for Edgin. He was beyond dominant in Low-A, and pretty dominant in High-A. Expect him to go to Double-A and potentially make it to Queens this year. Lefty has a fastball that reaches the mid-90’s and a very nice slider.

1-3-12 - mets360  - 1. Matt Harvey, SP, Hi-A/Double-A, 8-2, 2.37 ERA, 92 Ks in 76 IP - This is his line in Hi-A. Harvey made his professional debut in St. Lucie and posted this line over 14 starts before being promoted to Double-A. His ERA took a big hit with the jump to Binghamton, but his peripherals were much better than the 4.53 ERA he posted the second half of the year in 59.2 IP. Harvey had a 3.23 FIP in Double-A. He had a 9.65 K/9 in his stint in Binghamton but was hurt by a 66.3 LOB%. Harvey struggled initially but during the month of August, he was 5-0 with a 2.67 ERA and had 9 BB and 24 Ks in 27 IP.

metsmerized  - 38. Zach Lutz (3B) What can you say about a guy who hits the way Lutz does? He can fall out of bed, and line a rope up the middle. He can hit a home run in his sleep. He can…oh you get the idea, the guy rakes. The biggest problem regarding Lutz is he can’t stay healthy, and misses huge chunks of time every year. Last year was the perfect example as he was only able to stay on the field for 220 AAA AB’s. He managed to hit .295, however, with 11 HR’s and 31 RBI’s, with an OBP of .380, and a SLG% of .500. Early in his professional career, his physical ailments came in the form of foot and ankle problems. Broken feet, badly broken ankles, surgeries, you name it. It wasn’t pretty. Last year, it was injuries involving his head. A horrendous line-drive beaning while in the dugout, and a couple of pitches to the head featuring “concussion-like symptoms” and 2011 was spent more on the DL, than in the batter’s box. Drafted in the 5th round of the 2007 draft out of Alvernia College (PA), Lutz needs to play a full season in 2012, just to show he can do it. If DWright spends any time on the DL next year, and Lutz is healthy at Buffalo, he could be the one to take over if DMurph was being utilized someplace else.

1-4-12: - http://baseballprospectnation.com/  - Zack Wheeler - Body: Ideal height with long, lanky limbs and plenty of room to add mass with increased strength. Shows good athleticism and body control throughout delivery.  Makeup: Shows a mature demeanor on the mound, rarely getting rattled. Very competitive with an aggressive style. Reports indicate he works diligently between starts.  Delivery/Mechanics: Moves quickly through delivery and maintains outstanding balance over the rubber. Drops and drives with easy movements toward the plate. Has a loose, lightning quick arm action. Long arms add deception with extended release point. Finishes in a balanced position, facing home plate. Good athlete that gets off the mound well to field his position and cover first.  Fastball (FB) Velocity (Wind-up): High – 97, Low – 91, Average – 94-95, Grade – 70/70  Fastball (FB) Velocity (Stretch): High – 97, Low 90, Average 93-94, Grade – 60/70  Fastball (FB) Movement:  Shows riding life in on right-handers at times. Uses height well to create angle with his fastball. Explodes on hitters when thrown up in the zone. Grade – 50/60  Overall Fastball: True plus to plus-plus velocity right now with room to add more velocity with additional strength in frame. Fastball has movement in all parts of the zone. Will still flatten out on occasion when he over-throws. Grade – 60/70

Leach had two brief stints with the Mets in 1981 and 1982 as a spot starter and reliever.  In 1981, he went 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA in 21 games (one start).  Terry Leach regressed in 1982, posting a 5.35 ERA over his first 20 appearances, all in relief, before finally getting a start during the last weekend of the season against the Philadelphia Phillies.  In that start, Leach gave the Mets one of the best pitching performances in franchise history.  He threw ten shutout innings while allowing only one hit, a fifth inning triple to Luis Aguayo.  The Mets, who themselves had only one hit through the first nine innings, won the game for Leach by manufacturing a run in the tenth inning.  It was Leach's first career victory as a starter. http://studiousmetsimus.blogspot.com/2012/01/one-season-wonders-terry-leach.html

Anticipated 2012 Buffalo Bisons Roster

So here is my first of a series of post listing which prospects I think will be playing for which teams. These lists are of course coming out far too early but i think it will give viewers better look at the talent that is making its way to Flushing within the next few years. First up is the 2012 Buffalo Bisons.

• Catcher- Mike Nickeas

I initially had Nickeas as my MLB back-up catcher until the club signed Vinny Rottino. Rottino's flexibilty and the pop he has in his bat will get him into Flushing though leaving Nickeas back in Buffalo. The Canadian product batted .214 with only 2 HR's in 168 AB's for the Bisons so there's not much to write home about for him. On the flip side he did throw out 39% of would be base stealers.

• Infielders- Val Pascucci, Reese Havens, Jordany Valdespin, Zach Lutz

There's a nice mix of power and contact hitters here. The return of Pascucci at 1B brings back a legitimate power threat to the Bisons line-up. With 21 HR's and 91 RBI's in 443 AB's all he needs is some guys in front of him to get on base.

At 2B, I have Reese Havens making the jump up from AA. Now i know the guy has only 2 incomplete AA stints to his name and some will start he will start in Binghamton again in 2012 but the stats speak for themselves. When Havens was healthy he was mashing AA pitchers with a .301 avg and a SLG of .505 over his 2 stints. The guy can hit so why not challenge him with AAA.

At SS, I have Valdespin getting a full season's work with Buffalo. In his brief 2011 stint, he batted .280 but struck out almost 25% of the time. Defense will be a major concern with "Spin" as his 32 errors at SS last year in AA/AAA makes us wonder if he should change positions but his bat and speed in the Bisons line-up should make up for it.

Lastly at 3B, I have Zach Lutz returning. Like Havens, he can definitely swing the bat but has had trouble staying healthy. In 220 AB's, Lutz hit .295 with 11 HR's but was extremely unlucky after landing on the DL with a hamstring strain, and then being on it even longer when he broke his finger after being struck by a foul ball while sitting in the dugout. He also suffered two concussions from HBP's.

• Outfielders- Raul Reyes, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Fernando Martinez

In LF I have 24 yr old Raul Reyes being promoted from AA. Reyes hit an unimpressive .292 when compared to Lagares .370 however he does have 137 more career games at the level than Lagares does. He'll keep the seat warm till Lagares is done mashing AA pitching.

In CF i have Captain Kirk returning for his second stint. Kirk was on the 7 express train to Flushing going from St. Lucie to Buffalo in a short yr and a half. He would've probably been promoted before Duda had it not been for a season ending surgery. However if he can continue to hover around the .300 avg line and continue to play good defense in CF he'll be in Flushing sometime this season.

Lastly in RF, I have the one and only Fernando Martinez. I refuse to write anything else on him as i have officially given up on him and am willing to place Kirk, Lagares, and Puello above him in any OF prospect rankings.

• Starters- Mark Cohoon, Jeurys Familia, Chris Schwinden, Jenry Mejia, Dylan Owen

The rotation is going to be a pivotal point of interest this year for the Bisons. For now I only have 2 of the "Generation K 2.0" guys starting here. Once Mejia is back from his surgery he probably be placed in the bullpen to ease his way back but eventually i would think they put him back into the rotation for at least until September when they call him up for bullpen work. Now that Familia is on the 40 man his clock is ticking in terms of options. He's got 3 years to solidfy his spot as a MLB caliber pitcher or risk being claimed on waivers. Schwinden, Cohoon, and Owen are all returners from the 2011 team that posted a 4.36 ERA. Expect Harvey to join the group after 7 or so dominating starts in AA and for Wheeler to join after the AA All Star Break.

• Bullpen- Josh Stinson, Robert Carson, Jack Egbert, Erik Turgeon, Armando Rodriguez, Bradley Holt, Rhiner Cruz

I'm not going to lie, I dont spend too much time reading in relievers stock and potential. However Stinson is an interesting name who can possibly help out the Big League club from the right side. The same can be said abour Carson from the left side. It'll be interesting to see if Holt gets claimed via Rule 5 draft this year. If not it really shows how much his stock has fallen from his days of dominance in St. Lucie.

• Bench- Kai Gronauer, Luis Hernandez, Michael Fisher, Johnathan Malo, Russ Adams

No big names here. Just a couple of organizational guys.

All in all the 2012 Bisons season should have a lot of energy running through out the year. With Generation K 2.0 arriving and lots of impact positional young guys they should see a pretty successful 2012 season. Although i worry about the team defense and the bullpen, the rotation and line-up should be enough to at least propel the team to an above .500 record and put the talks of leaving the Mets organization to rest.

Cutnpaste: Aderlin Rodriguez, Zach Lutz, Wayne Garrett, Jason Isringhausen, Chris Schwinden

9-3-11: - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/833229-new-york-mets-ranking-their-current-best-prospect-at-every-position/page/7#/articles/833229-new-york-mets-ranking-their-current-best-prospect-at-every-position/page/2  - Aderlin Rodriguez, 19, shows a lot of promise at the plate. Rodriguez has cracked the Mets’ top 10 prospects lists for the Hardball Times, ESPN, MinorLeagueBaseball.com and BaseballAmerica. When he was 18 years old, he made his first real professional impact for his Kingsport team as he crushed 13 home runs and posted an impressive .240 ISO

9-3-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/09/prospect-pulse-buffalo-2012-help-on-the-way.html  - Zach Lutz - What do I want for xmas? I want Zach Lutz to play a full season with no injuries, just to see what kind of numbers he can put up. The guy absolutely rakes, but he has been snake-bit with injuries. He would have been perfect to call up once DWright went down, but Lutz was on the DL the same time Wright was. If he can stay on the field next season he is just a phone call away from Citi and could be called up anytime to play 1B, 3B, or righty PH duties.

Wayne Garrett was someone who could have been a competent starter but the Mets spent considerable time and resources trying to upgrade the position and the results were disastrous. They gave up Amos Otis to get Joe Foy. That didn’t work out so they gave up Ron Herbel to get Bob Aspromonte. That didn’t work out so they gave up Nolan Ryan to get Jim Fregosi. If only they would have been content to get essentially league average production from their trouble spot of third base, they could have kept a Hall of Famer and a five-time All-Star who amassed 2,020 hits in the majors. - http://mets360.com/?p=7889&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Mets360%2Ffeed+%28Mets360+Feed%29 

Jason Isringhausen is hurting, but not enough to call it a career. The veteran reliever yesterday said he plans to continue pitching next season, after bucking the odds in 2011 and remaining relatively healthy for the Mets. Isringhausen is bothered by a herniated disk in his back that will keep him sidelined for at least a few days, but intends to resume throwing by next week. The fact that his arm remains intact, after 53 appearances for the Mets, has him committed to 2012. "As of right now I want to pitch next year -- I plan on it," Isringhausen said before the Mets were swept, 6-5 and 5-1, by the Braves in yesterday's doubleheader at Citi Field. "The way my arm feels, getting the rest of my body in shape over the winter, the way I know I can, losing a few pounds, I think everything will be fine. - http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/back_for_more_ESeGClVJ8qAunMRhZS8MVO#ixzz1XRtuuzen  

From Twitter: - CSchwinny Chris Schwinden - Thank you everybody for the support. Those of you at the game and on here made me feel at home. I'll have a better outing next time I pitch!

Cutnpaste: Jordany Valdespin, Zach Lutz, Nick Evans, Lenny Dykstra, Maikel Cleto

9-3-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/09/prospect-pulse-buffalo-2012-help-on-the-way.html  - Jordany Valdespin - Not to beat a dead horse, as I recently described Valdespin in detail, in both the LH hitter post, and the Shortstop post, so all I’m going to say about him is since he is finishing this year at Buffalo, it makes perfect sense for him to man shortstop there next year. As far as him being able to help the Mets next year, the question right now is whether he can improve enough in three areas to warrant a call-up to the bigs. First he needs to cut down on his errors, second he needs to stop getting caught stealing so much, even if it means running less often, and third the coaching staff must decide that he has left his lack of maturity issues behind for good.

9-3-11: - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/833229-new-york-mets-ranking-their-current-best-prospect-at-every-position/page/7#/articles/833229-new-york-mets-ranking-their-current-best-prospect-at-every-position/page/2  - Even though Ike Davis basically has first base locked in for the New York Mets in the foreseeable future, they have a young prospect by the name of Zach Lutz that could eventually give him a run for his money.Lutz, who also plays third base, has been compared to Lucas Duda in that his power is borderline legendary and that is his greatest asset.

In Terry Collins' eyes, a significant gap exists between what Nick Evans is capable of doing in the Major Leagues and what he has thus far had the opportunity to do. "If Nick Evans, at this level, got 450, 500 at-bats," the Mets manager said, "I bet you'd see 25 homers out of him." To date, Evans has produced eight home runs over 330 career plate appearances, including three in 53 PAs since becoming a full-time starter late last month. Neither he nor the Mets may ever know for sure how he would perform over a full season, given the likelihood that Evans will break camp as a reserve player, not a starter, next season - http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110907&content_id=24365506¬ebook_id=24365510&vkey=notebook_nym&c_id=nym&partnerId=rss_nym  

Former New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Lenny Dykstra has pleaded not guilty in Los Angeles for allegedly exposing himself to women he met on Craigslist. City News Service reports Dykstra is accused of exposing himself to several women who responded to ads for personal assistants and housekeepers between 2009 and 2011. The 48-year-old former baseball star has been jailed since June in lieu of $455,000 bail on car theft and drug possession charges. He also faces bankruptcy fraud charges. A pretrial hearing is scheduled Oct. 5 on the indecent exposure misdemeanor charges. - http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/6941919/lenny-dykstra-pleads-not-guilty-indecent-exposure  

Prospect of the Day: Maikel Cleto, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals - If you like fastballs, pay close attention to St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Maikel Cleto, just promoted to the majors. Keep in mind that it takes more than pure heat to make a successful pitcher. Cleto was originally signed by the New York Mets as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 2006. After a pair of mediocre seasons in the low minors, he was involved in the December 2008, 12-player, three-way J.J. Putz trade which landed him in the Mariners system. More mediocre numbers resulted in 2009 (5.33 ERA in 25 innings in the Midwest League, with a 24/11 K/B but 35 hits allowed), then he was hit hard in the difficult environment at High Desert in the California League last year (6.16 ERA, 83/44 K/BB in 102 innings, 125 hits). - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/9/7/2409092/prospect-of-the-day-maikel-cleto-rhp-st-louis-cardinals  

Building 2012 Rosters Prospects First - Picks 41-45:

#41 – OF Juan Lagares – This is one of the great positive stories of the 2011 season. Lagares almost played himself off the map after the 2009 season, but what do you expect from a teeneage who originally came up as an infielder. Right now, he’s the top hitting outfielder in the system. He has a combined A+/AA BA of .354/.391/.508/.899, with 9-HR and 67-RBI. The Mets have already announced that he is playing winter ball in Arizona which is probably a combination of more experience plus an opportunity to showcase. Where is he going? Well, I have him in Buffalo in 2011 with F-Mart, Captain Kirk, and Mike Baxter (though Baxter may be in Queens). This is a real good problems. ETA: part of a pre-2012 trade.

#42 – 3B Zach Lutz – Yes, Lutz has been on the DL alot the past two seasons, but none of the injures were genetic or career threatening (broken wrist, broken finger, hit by ball). When he does play, he hits. He currently is hitting over .300 again (.302) and has 11-HR, 31-RBI in 212-AB. Like his predecessor, Shawn Bowman, he only plays third base which doesn’t give a Mets prospect that much to look forward to each spring. He’ll be back at AAA next year as an insurance policy and you’ll probably see him in Queens next month for a peek. ETA – 2013 MLB team

#43 – SP Logan Verrett – Verrett was a 2011 draft pick that didn’t get any play this season. He’s a three-pitch guy with a fastball that hits 95. His slider has been inconsistent and he does need some control work. His junior year stat line at Baylor was: 17-G, 15-St, 7-6, 2.93, 101.1-IP, 96-K, 31-BB. Like Greg Peavey and Erik Goeddel this season, the Mets will send many of their college draft pitches to Savannah next spring. One, IMO, will be Logan. ETA: - 2016 Pen

#44 – P Christian Montgomery – Montgomery was consistently placed in the first round of all the early mock drafts last June through August. Andy Seiler had him as the 27th overall pick. Sully Draft had him 33rd. The scouting reports had him in the 94-95 range coming out of his junior year in high school. He led the USA 18U team to victory and more mocks posted him: MLBProspects: 28th… Pat Hickey: 38th. Then, something happened. He lost his velo and was eventually shut down. The Mets found him still around in the 11th round, did their due diligence, and signed him on the last day for a $250,000 bonus. Could be either the dark horse of the draft or the second coming of Nathan Vineyard.. I have him doing baby steps next spring in Kingsport. ETA: TBD




photo by Allan Greene

 #45 – RP T.J. Chism – TJ has been taking baby steps since coming out of LaSalle University in 2009. He explained to me last season that a chance in delivery turned things around that are still going well this season in Brooklyn: 3-0, 1.27, 25-G, 4-SV. We joked then about him being #109 on the Keepers list and his desire to crack the top 100. He doesn’t have to worry about that anymore. Chism will start the season as a 23-yr. old, so there’s no reason to come to Savannah. I have him playing Lucy come the spring of 2011 – ETA: 2015 pen.


Rosters So Far:


Buffalo: (11) –SP Chris Schwinden, Collin McHugh, RP Robert Carson, IF Alan Dykstra, Reese Havens, Jordany Valdespin, Zach Lutz, OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Fernando Martinez, Mike Baxter, Juan Lagarus


Binghamton: (9) – SP: Mike Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jeurys Familia, Darin Gorski, RP Josh Edgin, Brad Holt, IF Jefry Marte, OF Matt den Dekker, Cesar Puello


St. Lucie: (10) – SP Greg Peavey, Taylor Whitenton, Angel Cuan, RP Cory Mazzoni, Jack Leathersich, Chase Huchingson, IF Wilmer Flores, Aderlin Rodriguez, OF Cory Vaughn, Gilbert Gomez


Savannah: (5) – SP Akeel Morris, Alex Panteliodis, Erik Goeddel, Logan Verrett, RP T.J. Chism,


Brooklyn: (4) – SP: Michael Fulmer, Juan Urbina, IF Phillip Evans, OF: Brandon Nimmo


Kingsport: (3) – SP Luis Mateo, Christian Montgomery, OF Vincente Lupo

Cutnpaste: Seth Lugo, Zach Lutz, Luis Cessa, Pagan’s Bowel Movement Carter’s Daughter on Dad

photo by Allen Green

8-14-11: - metsmerizedonline.  - Seth Lugo - After drafting the 6’4″ RHP Lugo in the 34th round this past June, out of Centenary College, the Mets assigned him to Kingsport where he has now made 7 GS, going 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA. In 35 IP he has given up 28 Hits, 3 HR’s, while striking out 32 and walking 16. Opponents are hitting .217 off him and his WHIP is 1.27.

8-22-11: - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/814874-new-york-mets-who-the-mets-should-add-to-their-40-man-roster-on-september-1st  - Zach Lutz 3B Buffalo Bisons: 53 games with Bisons in 2011, 10 HRS, 27 RBIs, .312 BA, 36 Rs The Mets drafted Lutz in the fifth round of the 2007 MLB draft and when he has been on the field since then, he has truly impressed. Lutz is a solid defensive third baseman but his real and only major problem is staying on the field. He has only played in 127 games in his last two professional seasons which comes out to roughly 63 games per season. That simply won't cut it if Lutz wants to be effective in the majors. Despite this problem, Zach still has a lot of pop in his bat and that's exactly what the Mets need, regardless of which position Lutz is changed to bend to the strengths of star third baseman David Wright.

8-23-11: - DSL 2011 End of Season Wrap-Up -

http://www.nyfuturestars.com/community/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=35808&sid=e8719b8eddffd9bc033d0ab708d8aff5  - Luis Cessa: 19 year old who started the year starting games in the DSL. Toby Hyde recently called Cessa "an arm to watch" sitting in the low 90s hitting 94. In 5 starts for the DSL Mets, Cessa threw 21.1 IP, allowed 19 hits, 8 runs (6 earned), and had a 3 BB:23 K ratio Cessa got brought up to the GCL Mets where he's made 9 appearances including 1 start. In those 9 games, hes pitched 29 innings, allowed 27 hits, 14 runs (12 earned), and has a BB:K ratio of 22:10.

Pagan’s Bowel Movement: - Details are still coming in to The Apple's news desk but apparently at about 1:55PM today Mets outfielder Angel Pagan disappeared into his hotel bathroom. Moments later the city of Philadelphia was hit by a major quake that was felt as far south as North Carolina and as far north as New York City. Though many early reports said the quake originated in Virginia it is now being confirmed that the epicenter was indeed Angel Pagan's bathroom. Pagan has released a brief statement which simply says, "Sorry about that, America. I felt a rumble in my stomach...and I guess you did too." - http://www.readtheapple.com/2011/08/east-coast-rocked-when-angel-pagans.html

Carter’s Daughter on Dad: - "Dad (Gary Carter) went to the doctor yesterday and received news that his white blood count was high enough to start the new stronger chemo! The blood count is still a little low; however, he got the green light to take his first pill last night. He took an anti-nausea pill at 10 p.m. and took his chemo at 10:30 p.m. and then fell right to sleep. We are so happy to report that dad is not sick and he had a good day today. There was some anxiety yesterday not knowing if this 5-day treatment would have terrible reactions. Aside from being tired, dad has no other side effects!!!" - http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/32913/carter-ready-for-more-intense-treatment

The Keepers: - #43 - 3B - Zach Lutz

43. Zach Lutz:


Lutz was the D3ielderBaseball.com National Player of the Year. He also was named PAC Player of the Year andpart of the All-PAC 1st team. His stats in his last year for Alvernia were .454/.541/.858, 12 HRs and 58 RBIs in 40 games.


The Mets drafted Lutz in the 5th round of the 2007 draft. He was signed and played the 2007 season for Brooklyn (1 game, 2 at bats).


Lutz played the entire 2008 season for Brooklyn, going .333/.442/.514/.956 in 72 at bats. This included 4 doubles, 3 HRs, and 12 RBIs in 24 games.


- In 2009, Lutz mastered A+ ball, going .284/.381/.441/.822, with 11-HR and 62-RBI in 356-AB and 99-G. He was ranked second in the league in OPS, and seventh in slugging percentage.


He had a cup of coffee at the end of the season for Binghamton, where he will play 2010.


1-1-10: - I have never met anyone in the Mets organization that isn’t high on this kid. Lutz’s pro career spans three years at three levels and he has a combined .438 slugging percentage and an .823 OPS. The srtange part is the lack of press he has been getting. If we assume he hits at the same pace in Binghamton this upcoming season, and he plays the season at 24 years old, and he plays 3B, where the hell does he go? I expect to start seeing him play second base soon.


2-10-10 - Zach Lutz – nothing wrong here, either… Lutz is showing the minor league brass that they just might have three major league third basemen in their organization… hit .284/.381/.441/822 for Lucy this year and will join most of his 2009 teammates with the B-Mets this season. Remember this name.


4-22-10: - Stock Up: We talked yesterday about the fact that the Mets have solved their first base problems for the next 5+ years. It’s also true that they don’t need a new third baseman during that same period, but the fact remains that there is a new one developing down on the farm and we might see him branching out to a new position someday to hopefully make this team both as the backup to David Wright, and a quality power utility bat.


5-10-10: - Stock Up: Lutz is one of those minor leaguers that doesn’t seem to get any press, but just goes out and does his job every night. And, don’t be fooled by that baby face… the kid’s got some real power! Lutz was a 5th round pick in 2007 and has produced well in Brooklyn (2008: .333/.442/.514/.956) and St. Lucie (2009: 11-HR, 62-RBI, .822-OPS). The soon-to-be 24-year old (June 3) continues to develop power and currently leads the Eastern League in both home runs (8) but also the best HR-AB ratio (13.13). ETA: 2011


5-26-10: - 3B Zach Lutz placed on 7-day Disabled List retroactive to May 21 with a left foot fracture.


7-17-10: - it’s not that Zach Lutz did anything special on Saturday. What he did was simply play. Lutz was on his way to a great season with Binghamton (8-HR, 17-RBI, .896-OPS in 126-AB), when he broke his ankle. No one expected him back this quick, but, you know Zach. Anyway, he did go 1-3 for the GCL Mets on his first rehab day and we expect him back in the B-Mets lineup this time next week.


7-23-10 – The Mets top third base prospect is now rehabbing with the GCL Mets and got back into gear on Friday. He belted a 2-run homer, knocked in a total of four runs, and went 3-5 in their win. I’m sure he will be returning Binghamton sometime next week, if not sooner. The most important thing about his return is it comes just when the Mets need another trading pawn to hopefully pull off a pitching deal before the deadline.


8-1-10: - Lutz was having a great year before he wound up on the disabled list. Well, he’s been back for five games and now has five home runs in that span, which included two on Sunday. Lutz is one of those secondary prospects we always talk about when we discuss the Mets minor league system. He has a lifetime .285 professional BA going into this year, and showed the first sign of power last season for St. Lucie (11-HR, 62-RBI). This season, he had 14-HR in 170-Abs and currently has a .612 slugging percentage and 1.028OPS at the AA level. What all this means is the Mets may wind up with a hell of a third base prospect in 2012, esecpailly if he aces AAA next season.


8-10-10 - The Mets have some decisions to make about a prospect that plays only one position which simply is not available on Roosevelt Avenue. 3B Zach Lutz has the talent to play MLB ball and his ETA is 2012 at the latest. He’s going to quickly learn what Shawn Bowman came to realize a year ago… his baseball future is probably not as a Mets. David Wright is going nowhere, and now that Ike Davis is at first base, he’s not even going to that position. Wright is projected as the Mets third sacker through the 2019 season, so whoever is going to dethrone King David someday is probably in middle school as we write. Lutz is a hitter, and his recent injury simply was a broken bone, not a series of nagging injuries. He wasted little time upon his return and let everybody know right away that he was back by hitting seven home runs in his first six games back. For the season, with three teams, he’s hitting: .280/.393/.593/.985 in 189-AB, with 16-HR and 37-RBI. Lutz turned 24 this past June and, if it wasn’t for his recent hiccup, he would have been once of the major names bantered around before the trade deadline. There doesn’t seem to be any plans to move him a round on the field, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he got an invite to Queens in September, simply to start showing him off. Regardless, watch for more press on a definite trade bait.


8-30-10: - Stock Up: The Mets top third base prospect, Zach Lutz, went 2-4 on Sunday, which included a two-run home run, his 18th of the season. His combined minor league stats this year are now: .283/.380/.561/.941. We’ve talked about Lutz many times this season, especially the fact that he only plays one position, which happens to be the most blocked in Mets history. Lutz is a hell of a minor league hitter, but he’s never going to move David Wringt off of third base in Queens. Concervatively, his ETA would be September 2011, so it will be interesting to see what the Mets do with him in the off-season. No, please, not another person trying to play second base…


10-8-10: - I think we just finished watching Zach Lutz become a full fledged prospect in 2010. Now, all the Mets have to do is find a place to play him. He will obviously do Buffalo in 2011, but, sadly, he will probably go the route of Shawn Bowman since he is boxed out by King David. This is one of the mew General Manager's prime trade bait in the off-season.


7-8-11: - Ever since the Mets selected Lutz in the fifth round of the 2007 draft, the 6-foot-1 third baseman has repeatedly landed on the disabled list with a variety of injuries. In his first professional game with the Brooklyn Cyclones in 2007, Lutz was lost for the season after suffering a hairline fracture in his right foot. This season, Lutz, playing for the Triple-A Buffalo Bisons, missed several weeks thanks to an injured hamstring, followed by a broken finger when he was hit by a foul ball while watching the game in the dugout. He then missed another week after getting hit in the head with a curveball June 24 against Norfolk. - http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/lutz_back_on_field_and_planning_Ag1zlkTiFkL6lqsfBvmDKM


7-20-11: - Lutz got hit in the head with a baseball yesterday. This is not to be confused with the other time he has been hit in the head this year with a baseball. He also broke a finger while in the dugout after… yes… being hit with a baseball. Lutz tried to stay in the game this time, spent a little time thinking he was back in Kansas, and was removed with what obviously was at least a concussion. I don’t think we’ll see him back this year. He needs to spend some time away from this game… and baseballs.

Cutnpaste: Fernando Martinez, Zach Lutz, Julio Concepcion, Logan Verrett, Drew Pomeranz

Fernando Martinez:


8-11-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/08/baseball-americas-mets-top-10-list-prior-to-2011-where-are-they-now.html   - OF – Fernando Martinez: What can you say? This guy has not played a full season in his pro career, and because of that he has not been able to show his full potential. Minaya was able to keep him out of the Johan Santana trade because of his 5 tool potential. However, since that time has has been on the shelf as much as he has been on the field. Started 2011: Triple-A Currently: Triple-A


Zach Lutz:


8-14-11: - http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/32042/projected-prospect-call-ups  - ZACH LUTZ, third baseman (.301, 6 HR, 17 RBI, 156 at-bats with Buffalo): A solid hitter whose father Yogi coached him at Alvernia College before Lutz was drafted in the fifth round in 2007, injuries have been Lutz’s biggest obstacle. Early in his pro career, Lutz dealt with stress fractures in his feet, which required surgery. This year, he originally landed on the disabled list with a right hamstring strain. And while on the DL, he was struck with a foul ball in the dugout, breaking the ring finger on his non-throwing hand. Lutz also has suffered a pair of concussions this season -- both the result of being hit in the head with pitches. Lutz, not a gifted fielder, also has been exposed to first base during his minor league career.


Julio Concepcion:


8-14-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/08/kingsport-mets-team-report-stretch-run-edition.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MetsMerizedOnline-GetMetsmerized-NewYorkMets+%28Mets+Merized+Online%29&utm_content=Twitter  - Julio Concepcion - This 6’4″ 194lb. 21 year old LF from the Dominican Republic is having a very good year with the bat for Kingsport. He leads the team in BA with a .317 (11th in the league), and also in Hits with 59 (5th in the league), and he’s 3rd on the team in TB’s (80), and in RBI’s (23). Signed by the Mets as an IFA in March of 2007, the RH hitting Concepcion, who is a very raw talent, has spent the last two seasons at the GCL level. A big finish to his season at Kingsport in 2011, is very important for him to use as a springboard to the long season leagues next year.



Logan Verrett:


8-17-11: - http://www.metstoday.com/6911/mets-minors/reviewing-the-mets-draft  - 3rd-round selection Logan Verrett out of Baylor signed at midnight for $425k. A college arm, Verrett is advanced enough to start out in High-A and could be on the same work plan that 2010 first-rounder Matt Harvey faced this season. Verrett sits at 88-92 mph with the fastball, but his best pitch is his slider. Expect to see him start in St. Lucie next season.


Drew Pomeranz:


8-18-11: - http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110817&content_id=23369180&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&tcid=tw_share  - Drew Pomeranz hadn't pitched in almost a month, but he looked anything but rusty on Wednesday night. MLB.com's No. 31 prospect retired the first 19 batters he faced in a Drillers uniform en route to a seven-inning, two-hit performance. Double-A Tulsa went on to blank Midland, 6-0, to snap a six-game losing streak. Pomeranz, who had not pitched since July 25, struck out four without issuing a walk in front of Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd.

Stock: Josh Satin, Zach Lutz, Matt den Dekker, Brad Holt, Dale Thayer

8-17-11: - Stock Up – Josh Satin: Josh just keeps on hitting, going 3-4 last night for Buffalo and now hitting .352/.416/.462/.877 in 91 AAA at-bats. He’s .331 for the combined AA/AAA year and he’s played just about every position available to him. Combined 12-HR, 72-RBIs. Only 13 combined errors in 118-G.


8-17-11: - Stock Up – Zach Lutz – Zach has been making daily headlines since returning from his third injury this season. Now, after 48-G and 169-AB in AAA, he’s .314/.393/.515/.907, 8-HR. Lutz only has two problems beyond having the worse luck regarding fluky injuries. One, he only plyas one position and two, it’s the position that David Wright also plays.


8-17-11: - Stock Up – Matt den Dekker – den Dekker don’t usually get off to a slow start, but he did when he was promoted to the AA-level. However, he’s hit .281 in his last 10 games and now has eight AA home runs in 197-AB.s His AA/A+ combines to: .274/.347/.474/.822, 14-HR, 59-RBI. Not bad for a lead-off guy.


8-17-11: - Stock Down – Brad Holt – Holt continues to stumble, now as a reliever. Last night, his first four batters had two hits, one walk and one hit-by-pitch. His seasonal ERA is a hefty 5.07 and it will be interesting if the new management chooses to invest any more time and money in this guy.


8-17-11: - Stock Up – Dale Thayer – It will be interesting to see if Thayer gets a September call-up. He’s done well (4-3, 3.02, 17-SV in 47-G) this year with Buffalo after pitching in four early games for the Mets. September promotions are either rewards or for the kids, and I’m not sure where this 31-yr. old falls category wise, if either.