UPDATE - OF - Juan Lagares

New York Mets ‏@Mets  

The #Mets have activated outfielder Juan Lagares from the Disabled List and optioned Kirk Nieuwenhuis to Las Vegas (AAA).

Stephen Guilbert - 2014 Mets Hitters by OBP

Player	.OBP
Juan Lagares	.345
Daniel Murphy	.339
Ruben Tejada	.338
Lucas Duda	.333
Eric Young Jr.	.315
David Wright	.314
Travis d’Arnaud	.303
Anthony Recker	.300
Chris Young	.262
Curtis Granderson	.252
Andrew Brown	.233

Notes:

 - A minimum of 30 at bats were used in the above table. 

-           - Ike Davis would have led the list at .367 if he were still a Met.

-          - Jon Niese leads all Mets ignoring at bat qualifications with an OBP of .500.

-         - No one on the team is getting on base at an elite rate, although Wright should get there soon and Travis d’Arnaud, Ruben Tejada, and Lucas Duda have been much better over the past couple weeks.

-        - Catcher, first, and short were three big question marks to start the season. All three are getting on base well so far this season and only getting better.

-    - Chris Young and Granderson will likely stay below or around .300 due to low batting averages. This is fine assuming they hit for power. 

     - To compete in the NL East, the Mets will need to get on base and run them well. While some of the above is encouraging (Duda, Murphy, Tejada, Lagares), it will not be enough. This team, so far, has been anemic in the power department, posting the lowest ISO in baseball. The pitching will likely be good. To score runs to get those pitchers, and the team, wins, they will have to do a very good job getting on bases, taking extra bases, and manufacturing runs. To dominate, you have to hope Granderson, Chris Young, David Wright, Lucas Duda, and even Travis d'Arnaud start hitting for some serious power. 

-        -I believe fans will never like Ruben Tejada. However, I’ll take a .338 OBP and his defense any day of the week. If the Mets sign Stephen Drew, sure, the power in the lineup gets a small boost, but all else we do is get poorer and frankly not much better, if at all. 

Four Mets in John Sickels' Top 150 Prospects

Masahiro Tanaka is John Sickels' top prospect entering 2014

John Sickels over at Minor League Ball has released his Top 150 Prospects for the 2014 season. Four
Mets made the cut:

18- RHP Noah Syndergaard
46- RHP Rafael Montero
63- C Travis d'Arnaud
109- OF Brandon Nimmo

In the preface to the list, Sickels mentions Nimmo's hot start and what it might do to his ranking come mid-season:

"Pre-season analysis is still heavily-weighted here. That said, there are a few player whose outlook has already improved substantially. Hot starters like Mookie Betts, Joey Gallo, and Brandon Nimmo will rank much higher in the next version of this list in July if they maintain their current momentum".

Four out of 150 is a bit disappointing for a team still in a rebuild mode, especially when you consider Travis d'Arnaud is one of the oldest on the list and has since graduated, and even more so when you weigh in that Montero and Syndergaard probably will not be eligible for this list come this time next year.

However, Sickels does list a couple dozen players at the end of the 150 who are "In The Picture". Four additional Mets made this list:

IF Wilmer Flores
LHP Steve Matz
C Kevin Plawecki
1B Dominic Smith

I am a bit surprised Smith was left off the top 150 as many other experts like him much more. In some cases, Smith is right around Montero and d'Arnaud in the top 50 in the entire game. Other 2013 draftees who I do not deem nearly as talented did make the list, which comes as a surprise.

I expect Brandon Nimmo is solidly in the top 100 now and will only get higher if he continues to hit and get on base like he has through the first month of the season.

Outside of Met world, I still have no idea why people think Javier Baez is a better shortstop than Francisco Lindor. First off, Baez is not a shortstop. He will have to move to second or third and not because Starlin Castro is planted at short for the Cubs--it's because Baez is not a good defensive shortstop. Lindor has a chance to become one of the true stars of the game. What I would do for the Mets to trade for that guy.

It amazes me how out of love even someone like Sickels can fall for players who are hurt. Miguel Sano, Jameson Taillon, and Taijuan Walker should all be far higher than they are.

The 2012 draft was a controversial one for the Mets scouting team as they selected a player better known for his athleticism and bloodlines than his true baseball skill. That lack of skill has led to a bunch of poor hitting and questionable defense from SS Gavin Cecchini through his first couple seasons in the Mets system. There were players like OF Courtney Hawkins who seemed to grab the affection of Mets fans but Hawkins has struggled mightily as well and missed this list (and the "In The Picture" section). Who did make the list who was selected after #12 Cecchini?

19- RHP Eddie Butler (46th selection)
25- RHP Lucas Giolito (15th selection)
43- OF Jessie Winker (49th selection)
45- RHP Marcus Stroman (22nd selection)
48- RHP Lance McCullers (41st selection)
70- OF Stephen Piscotty (37th selection)
76- 3B Joey Gallo (39th selection)
77- RHP Lucas Sims (21st selection)
92- RHP Mitch Nay (58th selection)
115- RHP Chris Stratton (20th selection)
124- RHP Jose Berrios (32nd selection)
148- C Clint Coulter (27th selection)

Add to that a couple on the "In The Picture" list and it does look like the Mets selected poorly in the first round in 2012. While Cecchini could be a late-bloomer much like Nimmo, I do not see him as a shortstop nor someone who will hit enough for second. I very much like Plawecki but I had my heart set on Berrios, who was taken just a few picks before. As soon as he was off the board, I wanted McCullers, who is the 48th-ranked player in the game.

I covered the 2012 draft more than any other year and I wanted Stroman and McCullers with the picks we had in the first round, based on the players who were available. Stroman went way too late, simply because scouts have a foolish prejudice against height…something that plagued both Stroman and McCullers. Both find themselves in the top 50 prospects in the game.

Some of the others were tough. There was no indication that Giolito was going to sign. Piscotty, Gallo, Winker, and Butler were nowhere near the top of anyone's board, and Stratton was a late-riser who I still do not think is all that good. I could have seen a reach for Sims, who has always looked very good, and I thought Stroman would have been a great pick, but the preference was to take a hitter and the hitters in that part of the draft (assuming you do not reach for Gallo or Winker, which could have backfired just a badly), were just not that good. You could have had James Ramsey, Hawkins, D.J. Davis, or Tyler Naquin, and made an equally poor pick. While I think the Mets should have taken the best player available (which would have been a pitcher: Giolito, Stroman, or Sims), they went hitter and got the guy they liked best on the board at the time. There is still time for Cecchini to come around but of the three high school first round bats (Nimmo, Cecchini, Smith), my guess is we go 2 for 3.

As for Sickels, I think he is the final word when it comes to prospects so I am a bit disappointed he sees only four Mets in the top 150 in the game. I do think Smith, Matz, Plawecki, and a sleeper (Robert Whalen anyone?) should vault their way into the top 150 next year along with whichever player we select with the 10th pick in the 2014 draft. This system is steadily improving and Sickels has said that he considers it one of the better systems in the National League. However, it seems like that assessment comes from its depth rather than its elite talent.

While I am biased, Dominic Smith has to be on that list.

Reese Kaplan - Do Something Part Two -- Top Shelf Prize Time

As a follow up to the “Do Something” article, I figured the end of April was as good a time as any to analyze the stats of this surprisingly successful 15-11 Mets team.  Someone asked me before the season how I felt they would do during their first 22 game tough stretch to open the season against some of the league’s best and I said I had expected something along the lines of 9-13.   To have them prove me wrong feels good – very good – but there’s so much more that needs to be done. 

This club is built on pitching.  That revelation should come as no surprise to anyone.  It’s the pitching that’s largely responsible for the early season success.  Right now the team is in the top half of baseball in most pitching categories, including 12^th in ERA, 14^th in strikeouts, 12^th in batting average against and 13^th in WHIP.  The only black mark on an otherwise credible record is home runs surrendered -- they are 27^th out of 30 teams. 

It’s nice to know on any given night the Mets should produce a quality start.  Gone are the days of starters like Aaron Laffey, Mike Pelfrey and Chris Schwinden when multiple 3 run innings were never far from the back of your mind.  In fact, after the initial stumbles against Washington, the bullpen hasn’t been bad, with pretty much everyone contributing something positive at one time or another. 

Unfortunately, the hitting is even worse than I suspected.  Paradoxically, for an offensively challenged team they are in the 18^th and 17^th spots respectively for Runs and RBIs.  The Mets seem to draw a lot of walks and steal bases when on the rare occasions when they get men on base, but after that they’re ranked 27^th to 30^th in every other offensive category.   Hits, batting average, OPS, HRs…you name it, they’re trailing nearly everyone.  They are 29^th (or 2^nd depending on your perspective) for hitters racking up strikeouts and dead last in both total bases and slugging. 

Some things are pretty sure to improve.  David Wright and Curtis Granderson should show more power.  Chris Young might rediscover his mojo.  Lucas Duda might become consistent.  Travis d’Arnaud is showing signs of life.  Daniel Murphy already has 6 steals and may top 30 for the season. 

The area where the team has an ongoing problem is shortstop where Ruben Tejada has become something of a divisive figure among Mets fans.  There doesn’t appear to be anyone straddling the fence.  He’s either bound to regain his previous success or he’s destined for the Chin-lung Hu scrap heap of players who never put it all together. 

In his best year – 2012 – Tejada hit a commendable .289 over 501 ABs.  His OBP was .333 – better than the career mark of the guy Terry Collins trots out there night after night.  Unfortunately that’s where the highlights end.  He had just 1 HR and only 25 RBIs. He stole 4 bases but was also caught trying to steal 4 times.    That’s bad by anyone’s standards.  If that level of performance is the best fans can expect, then perhaps a change really is in order.  He’s been a bit hot lately, with his average up to the .220s (which is an improvement over his abbreviated 2013 campaign which saw him finish at a paltry .202).  However, over his last 300+ ABs he’s on a 162 game pace for a .207 AVG with 0 HRs, 32 RBIs and the same 4 SBs.  Right now he is ranked dead last on Fangraphs in WAR among qualifying shortstops.

Unfortunately the stories emanating from the ubiquitous anonymous source on Wednesday suggested that the Mets are not keen on the Wilmer Flores to shortstop experiment.  With neither Danny Muno nor Anthony Seratelli proving to be the answer, you could dip down into AA.   Matt Reynolds is hitting well for the first time in his minor league career -- .373 -- but his defensive skills are about on par with what you’d get from Flores.  Wilfredo Tovar can flash the leather but he’s never been much of a hitter despite his current .317 average.  He’s got a little speed and no power, so he’s probably not much of an upgrade over Tejada.  Like Tejada, he can play either of the middle infield positions.  This year he’s primarily at 2B. 

It’s about time to look outside the organization to do something bold.  Whether it’s an established major league shortstop or a highly regarded top prospect, it might be time to part with some of the arms we’ve been stockpiling since the Omar Minaya days.  Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, Steve Matz and Matt Harvey all came under his stewardship.  Sandy Alderson has added to this wealth with pitchers like Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero, Jacob de Grom, Gabriel Ynoa and others.  Throw in Bartolo Colon, Zack Wheeler, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jeremy Hefner.  They can’t possibly find slots for all of them.  It’s time now to turn these chips in and grab some prizes off the top shelf.  If the new shortstop can also lead off and steal some bases, then multiple problems will be solved with a single trade.

SABR Talk: Team Defense Playing Big Role in Niese and Gee's Improvement.

By a show of hands, who here thought that the Mets would be a solid defensive team? Well, surprise surprise! So far this year the Mets rank 5th in the MLB for fielding percentage (.987) and errors made (13). In addition, of those 13 errors, 4 of them are from pitchers Jose Valverde and Bartolo Colon. Not counting those guys, the TRUE team defense is tied for best in the MLB with only 9 errors with the Cincinnati Reds. The improved team defense is having an extremely positive effect on #1 and #2 starters Dillon Gee and Jonathan Niese. 

Neither pitcher relies heavily on strikeouts (Niese 6.6 K/ 9, Gee 5.9 K/9) but instead use good strike-zone presence to induce weak contact. If you remember from our story on Travis d'Arnaud, LD% can be a good indicator of how much solid contact batters are getting. Against Dillon Gee, batters only have a LD% rate of 15.4% which, while below his career rate of 18%, is not too far off. For Niese, batters actually have a LD% rate of 24.2% which again, while ABOVE his career rate of 21%, is not too far off.

What this proves is that batters are still getting relatively the same hit patterns from their swings, however, the results from those hit patterns are starkly different. Opponents batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) have taken a nose dive so far this year. Last Year's defense was ranked middle of the road so rightfully Niese and Gee's oBABIP's were a roughly league average .296 and .326 respectively. However, with this season's top tier defense, those oBABIP's are now and astounding .202 and .247 respectively. 

As with batting averages, you can normalize pitcher's ERA's to reflect league average defense. This SABR stat is called Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)  Unlike AVG's though, where you DO NOT have control over your opponents defense, ERA's can generally finish below their FIP's because YOU DO have control over your own defense. 

We know full well that our team's OF defense with Young, Young, Lagares, and Granderson should finish near the top of the league. Travis d'Arnaud has show excellent defensive capabilities behind the plate with his framing skills. If Tejada, Mruphy, and Wright can continue their excellent defensive paces in the infield, there's no reason to not believe that this team can finish tops in the league defensively, which will in turn improve the team ERA even further.

Morning Report – May 1 – Priorities, Trades, Wilmer Flores

Coming Up Today:

      10 am -  Christopher Soto - SABR Talk: Team Defense Playing Big Role in Niese and Gee's Improvement

      12 noon – Reese Kaplan - Do Something Part Two -- Top Shelf Prize Time

       2 pm - Stephen Guilbert - 2014 Mets Hitters by OBP

       4 pm - Top 10 RHP in 2014 MLB Draft - Updated 4-28-14

      6 pm – Jacob Gatewood, Derek Fisher, Austin Cousino, Elliot Cary

Well, the wife and I went to eat at our local Greek restaurant and I left my laptop in the back seat of my car… with the car unlocked. Yep… gone, and with it all the research I have done for years on the players in the upcoming draft plus the history of the mock drafts I had on an excel sheet.

Many of the writers know that there is some stuff (like the 3pm and 6pm post listed above) I have already scheduled into the site, so you will see some draft ‘stuff’ leading up to those three days, but it will be far less than I had planned.

Shit happens, right?

Reese asked -

Which is the higher priority -- outfielders or shortstop? In general the the former are easier to find and we've been going on something like 300 ABs of .200 hitting from Ruben Tejada. If you're going to make a deal, I'd prefer it would be for Chris Owings or Nick Franklin or one of Cleveland's shortstops.

      Mack – My opinion is just that…

I think that if you have multiple issues on the table and one can be addressed, you do so as soon as can be accomplished.

I can’t imagine the Mets saying ‘I’m not going to worry about a back-end reliever or a new bat in the outfield until I solve this shortstop situation. It simply doesn’t work that way.

I think that Alderson and Company are redefining on paper the new Mets template. You’ve got a team that currently has the 6^th best record in the league and it doesn’t seem to ever generate enough hits to win half the games it currently is winning. Five of their supposed starters are hitting between .221 and .136. Did I say the 6^th best record in baseball?

And technically, they aren’t mowing down everyone with pitching either. Team wise, they rank only 12^th in ERA and 13^th in WHIP.

What they are doing is scoring at least one more run than their opponent which, in the short range, has been the answer. I mean, any time your win-loss record is identical to the Yankees is a good thing, right?

Obviously, there is no reason right now to upset the apple cart, but shortstop, back-end reliever, and real time outfield bat are still both the short and long term goals here.

This new template must include a plan to finish the regular season in the playoffs, so I wouldn’t look for the annual selloff of players like Bartolo Colon and Chris Young. Neither has blown us away, but they are each a piece of this current team that is hitting on most of their cylinders.

You have identified four excellent shortstop targets. I have identified Joc Peterson for the outfield. I expect that work is being done in the back rooms on both positions; however, I don’t think the front office will make any moves until June earliest.

Robb then asked –

What (who) would you trade for peterson? for ownings? none of this second tier prospect bs

Mack – You are correct Robb. You are not going to get a top shelf prospect for a Class B out of your system.

Me? Well, first I have to decide the six (five + injury/TJS replacement starter) I want to keep in the rotation in 2015. I’m not like some here that want to trade off Niese and/or Gee. They both are the best two pitchers the Mets have right now.

After that, I keep Harvey, Wheeler, and Syndergaard based on pedigree alone.

I then have to pick one from Colon, Mejia, Hefner, Montero, Verrett, and deGrom.

No matter how much Mets fans like deGrom, he’s not top shelf. And the only top shelf pitcher left here is Montero.

Sorry, but you can’t have everyone. You’re not going to trade your only prospect left handed starter (Steven Matz), so it’s back to either Wheeler or Montero.

Since we are on the subject of shortstop, I do want to go back to Wilmer Flores again.

      It does look like the ‘slow start’ is over and he’s hitting again. His AAA season average is up to .256 after going .282 in his last 10 games. More importantly, he’s playing decent shortstop. Well… at least it can be said he’s not embarrassing himself out there.

      What it still comes down to is whether or not he’s ever going to be given a proper shot to take the job away from Ruben Tejada and my guess is no. I can’t think of a worse time any ballplayer had on this team than Tejada has had since last season’s all-star break, and yet he remains the permanent replacement for Jose Reyes.

      We knew by the end of last season that there was nothing more Flores needed to do in the minors and, now that he’s playing his old position with some degree of success, the Mets are still willing to leave the job in Queens with someone that will never have the hitting potential Flores has.

      My guess is you need to get used to having Tejada around and the future of Flores is either the Mets bench or a throw-in as part of a trade for a reliever or outfielder.

Charlotte 6 - St .Lucie 1

Leonel Santiago made his best start of the season and shut down the St. Lucie as the Charlotte Stone Crabs defeated the Mets 6-1 on Wednesday at Tradition Field.

Santiago entered the game with a 13.20 ERA and 32 hits allowed in just 15 innings, but he was in control against St. Lucie. He limited the Mets to just two hits and one unearned run - it came on his own error - in five solid innings to pick up his first win.

For the Mets, starter Steven Matz was not as sharp as he was in his last two starts in which he didn’t allow any runs. Matz walked two batters with two outs in the third, then Patrick Leonard belted a triple to put the Stone Crabs up 2-1.

Matz took the loss. He threw 99 pitches in five innings, allowing six hits and four walks. He was able to strike out the final two hitters in the fifth to end on a positive note.

Julian Hilario could not keep the game close in relief. The Crabs tagged him for two runs on a triple, double and single in the sixth. Justin O’Conner smashed a two-run homer off Hilario in the seventh to make it 6-1 Crabs.

Kevin Brandt and Parker Markel each pitched two shutout inning of relief to close out the ballgame.

Beck Wheeler pitched a scoreless eighth and ninth for the Mets.

The Stone Crabs pounded out 12 hits on Wednesday after collected a season-high 17 hits on Tuesday.

No one from the Mets had a multi hit game. Albert Cordero’s double was the only extra base hit out of the seven hits the Mets had.

The Mets finished their six-game home stand 2-4. They’ve dropped four of their last five games after winning four of their previous five. - team press release

Savannah Sand Gnats 1 Delmarva Shorebirds 0

Game two of the three game series between the Savannah Sand Gnats and the Delmarva  Shorebirds was played in front of 1,375 fans Wednesday evening at Grayson Stadium.

Fans saw Savannah pitchers dominate like last nights game, shuting out Delmarva and winning 1-0.
Savannah scored in the 5th inning. Victor Cruzado,rf led off with a single. A bunt single by Dominic Smith1b advanced Cruzado to second. An infield hit by catcher, Colton Plaia, loaded the bases. A wild pitch allowed Cruzado to score.

Savannah threatened to score in the 7th inning when Plaia singled, moved to second on a ground out, and was thrown out at the plate on a close play after Gavin Cecchini,ss singled to center.
Winning his first game of the season for Savannah, Ricky Knapp(1-2), was sharpe with great control, pitching 7 1/3 shutout innings, allowed 4 hits, 0BB, and struck out 6. Akeel Morris(2-0), earned his first save of the season.

Savannah pitching:   IP.   Runs.   Hits.   K.   BB
Ricky Knapp.           7 1/3.    0.       4.      6.    0
Darwin Frias.            2/3.      0.       1.       1.   1
Akeel Morris.            1.         0.       2.       1.    0

The final game of the series starts at 7:05pm Thursday evening at Grayson Stadium.

Mets Minor League Report: April 30, 2014

MMLR Player of the Day: Las Vegas RHSP Noah Syndergaard


Las Vegas (19-8) rips Reno (14-13) 6-1.

Noah Syndergaard was really on tonight: 7.0 IP, R, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 7 K. This was the kind of start we’ve been hoping for from Thor.
Zack Thornton followed with a solid 2.0 innings: 2 H, 3 K. The 6’3” 220 lb righty has an ERA of 1.29 in 7.0 innings of relief since joining the Mets family.

Juan Lagares got a start in CF: 2-4, R. Also, Lagares had an outfield assist.
Wilmer Flores, pinch hitting for Syndergaard: 1-1, RBI.
Zach Lutz: 2-4, 2B, BB, RBI, R.

　

Binghamton (12-10) @ Akron (14-11) postponed - rain.

B-Mets game postponed for the 7^th time this month.
Though April showers may come your way,
they bring the flowere that bloom in May.
But will they bring some more wins for the Bingos, who have cooled off of late, losing 3 of their last 4.

　

Charlotte (12-14) stymies St. Lucie (14-12) 6-1.


The Stone Crabs are feasting on our Mets, taking 2 of 3, in the 2^nd straight series loss for St. Lucie. We shouldn’t be losing to a team like Charlotte.

Steven Matz was tonight‘s victim: (L, 2-2) 5.0 IP, 2 R, 6 H, 4 BB, 5 K.
But the culpret was actually Julian Hilario: 2.0 IP, 4 R, 5 H, (HR) 2 BB, 3 K.
Beck Wheeler was fine: 2.0 IP, 0 R, H, BB, 3 K.

The St. Lucie offense was MIA tonight. Six hits spread among six players.

　

Savannah (16-8) edges Delmarva (12-13) 1-0.

Ricky Knapp, (W, 1-2) finally gets a well deserved win: 7.1 IP, 0 R, 4 H, 0 BB, 6 K. After a disastrous first start at Savannah, where he gave up 6 R (3ER) in 2.1 innings, Knapp put together 3 consecutive fine starts, a loss, a no-decision, and now a win, pitching into the 8^th inning.
Dawrin Frias finished the 8^th inning for the Sand Gnats: 0.2 IP, 0 R, H, BB, K.
Akeel Morris (S, 1) earned a save: 1.0 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 0 BB, K. Morris in now unscored upon in 14.2 innings of relief, with 5 H and 23 strikeouts.

If you don’t score, you don’t win. Fortunately, we scored tonight, and they didn’t.
Dominick Smith: 2-3.
Colton Plaia: 2-3.