Tom Brennan - SUBS AND SCRUBS - METS HITTERS IN 2018

Tom Brennan - WISHFUL THINKING ON METS OFFENSIVE SUBS AND SCRUBS PLAYERS

Most delis have delicious heros a/k/a "subs."  De-lish.

Aside from food, every team has offensive starters - and subs.  

Hopefully, the starters play like starters, stay healthy, and minimize the need for subs to play.

The Mets had to use subs more in 2018 than they might have hoped, due to injuries to the likes of guys like Cespedes, d'Arnaud, Plawecki, Frazier, and Lagares.

Contending teams understand that injuries are part of the game, and have solid alternative scenarios to not let a spate of starting position player injuries deep-six their teams.

The Mets always skimp when it comes to subs and scrubs.

The Mets employ a lot of wishful thinking. 

And it really costs them.

Don't believe me?  

Look at the subs and scrubs hitting stats, then.

Let's run down the list - really positive stats are highlighted in blue, while sub-par stats are highlighted in yellow:

J. Bautista: 245 AB, 37 R, 50 H, 13 D, 9 HR, 37 RBI, 41 BB, 75 K, .204

J. Reyes: 228 AB, 30 R, 43 H, 12 D, 3 T, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 22 BB, 39 K, .189

A. Jackson: 198 AB. 17 R, 49 H, 9 D, 1 T, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 12 BB, 74 K, .247

D. Smith: 143 AB, 14 R, 32 H, 11 D, 1 T, 5 HR, 11 RBI, 4 BB, 47 K, .224 

T. Nido: 84 AB, 10 R, 14 H, 3 D, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 4 BB, 27 K, .167

L. Guillorme:  67 AB, 4 R, 2 D, 0 HR, 5 RBI, 7 BB, 3 K, .208

J. Lobaton:  49 AB, 3 R, 7 H, 2 D, 1 T, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 7 BB, 15 K, .143

J. Reinheimer: 30 AB, 4 R, 5 H, 0 D, 0 T, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 5 BB, 9 K, .167

P. Evans: 21 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 0 D, 0 T, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 8 K, .143

M. Dekker: 18 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 0 D, 0 T, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 2 BB, 9 K, .056

T. Kelly: 11 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 D, 0 T, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 2 K, .091

K. Kaczmarski: 4 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 D, 0 T, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 1 BB, 1 K, .000

TOTALS OF THE ABOVE SUBS AND SCRUBS:

1,098 AB, 121 R, 218 H, 52 D, 6 T, 22 HR, 103 RBI, 108 BB, 309 K, .198.

That's a whole lot of yeller, fellers.

Those 1,098 at bats represent 20% of the team's 5,468 ABs for the year, in which the team hit a dead last at .234.

The 80% of the team not comprised of the subs and scrubs hit .241, so the subs and scrubs hit 43 points lower than the rest of the hitters.  

Even worse, exclude pitchers from the team totals (42 for .300, .140) as well as subs and scrubs, and the rest of the team's  offense hit a (still low) .248, so the hitter subs and scrubs actually hit 50 points lower than the starting position players!

CONCLUSION:

A team that really, truly, honestly is serious about contending cannot have 20% of its line up attempts (the aforementioned subs and scrubs) hitting .198.  

Off the top of my head, that subs and scrubs number needs to go up at least 30 points to .228 to have any serious hope of competing for the Division title or a Wild Card.

Of the subs and scrubs, only Joey Bats and Austin Jackson were both solid enough for subs - the rest simply were not.  

The rest, collectively, were gosh-awful.  

And where did that Subs & Scrubs hitting deficiency show up?

IN A SUB .500 WIN/LOSS RECORD, THAT'S WHERE.

SOLUTION:

YOU CANNOT GO CHEAP ON SUBS AND SCRUBS.

 DOING SO WILL KILL YOU AS A TEAM.

"Wishful thinking" franchises, like the Mets, have been hoping that the number of Subs and Scrubs at bats will be no more than 500, and that they will predominantly be taken by the better hitters.  

There must, however, be a much better plan to get Subs and Scrubs collectively hitting at least around .225 or higher.   Not too difficult a goal to ascribe to, I'd say.

Simply, sign subs who can hit, who will produce more blues, and less yellows.

Going cheap here will save a few bucks in the short run, perhaps, but cost you playoff revenues come October.

The Mets' approach leads to a bottom line that is SUB par.

Reese Kaplan -- First Rounders Running on Fumes

How does a person go from number one prospect status to mere afterthought over the course of 4-5 years?  It happens to every organization now and then but it seemed to happen to the Mets more often than to other ballclubs.

Going back to my namesake Reese Havens, the Mets have not had a great deal of success out of their number one draft picks.  We all know about the Alex Escobar and Fernando Martinez promises of success. 

More recently we have seen the same happen with Gavin Cecchini and Dominic Smith, both of whom seemed poised for their big break only to have injuries creep up at the worst possible moments.  Smith is still just 1 full year removed from a .330 season in AAA and a combined 25 HRs and 101 RBIs between Las Vegas and New York.  The story is well known by now – first base being his to lose despite the looming presence of former All Star Adrian Gonzalez.  He overslept, was penalized a starting assignment for having done so, and then quickly succumbing to injury which assured the over-the-hill slugger most recently of Atlanta was going to be the Opening Day 1^st baseman.

Gavin Cecchini’s season started off well after a stretch of two of the past three years well over the .300 mark in AA and AA.  Sandwiched in between was a lackluster .267 which may in part had to do with him losing focus when not given opportunities to play under Mickey Callaway’s youth-prejudiced predecessor.  Through his first 30 games in 2018 he was hitting a solid .294 before fouling a ball off his foot.  It’s the kind of injury you figure might require a week or two to rest and rehab before returning to a full time starting assignment.  Unfortunately, that signaled the end of the season for Mr. Cecchini.

Oddly, both may find themselves in the mix as the roster is being put together for 2019 as Luis Guillorme has not acquitted himself particularly well in his trials in the big leagues (under the watchful eye of Mickey Callaway).  The club is bereft of outfielders and there are no healthy infielders on the roster without a spot except Jeff McNeil (but that’s another rant for another day). 

Now Gavin Cecchini is never going to be mistaken for Mark Belanger with his glove nor thus far is Dominic Smith going to be mistaken for Keith Hernandez or John Olerud with his bat.  At this point there’s nothing to be lost by giving them the first shots at bench roles as there’s little to be gained playing them again in AAA and there’s no guarantee that Travis d’Arnaud or TJ Rivera will be healthy enough to start the season.    

It’s still early in the off-season and there’s a lot of time between now and when Spring Training begins.  While many are focusing on the bullpen composition, the starting outfield and the ability to palm off the bad contracts on other clubs in trades, there is still something to be said for small moves being a necessary part of rebuilding the team. 

From The Desk – Andrew Vaughn, T.J. Rivera, Top 11-15, Hunter Barco, Matt Wallner

Good morning.

Andrew Vaughn   is MLB Pipeline’s 3rd best 2019 MLB Draft prospect

          

  Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 30 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60

Relatively unheralded out of high school, Vaughn put himself on the map as a freshman by tying for the Cal lead in home runs and winning PAC-12 Freshman of the Year honors. He made that season look pedestrian by hitting .402 with 23 home runs in 2018 and became one of the few underclassmen to win the Golden Spikes Award.

The argument can be made that Vaughn is the best all-around hitter in this Draft class. He has a very advanced approach at the plate, one that has allowed him to walk much more than he has struck out over his first two years at Cal, with a knack for barreling up the baseball. He doesn’t sacrifice power as a result, showing the ability to hit the ball out to all fields, profiling as a true middle-of-the-order run producer in the future. He’s a first baseman only, but should be fine there, with decent hands and a solid arm that allowed him to pitch as a freshman.

Mack – Sounds like a first baseman we drafted in the 2^nd round a few years ago.

Where in the World is T.J. Rivera? -

          

    During the 2017 season, Rivera continued to show that he is a capable Major League hitter. The utilityman hit five home runs, drove in 27 RBIs and slashed .290/.330/.430.

The righty seemed ready to be a significant piece of the 2018 Mets, until his ulnar collateral ligament decided otherwise.

T.J. Rivera underwent Tommy-John surgery late in the 2017 season and has yet to return to a big league field. Rivera was initially slated to return in May but later saw his rehab pushed back to July.

Mack – Strangely, you aren’t going to find any definitive answer in this article. so I have no idea why it was written.

Word I have received is he is far from ready and we need to find an alternative as a UT-IFer come opening day.

                      

Perfect Game  Top 10-15 Draft Prospects –

                 

      10        Tyler Callihan   

6-1  200  L/R  3B       Neptune Beach, FL   South Carolina          Providence    Elite Squad           

Houston Astros Scout Team/Elite Squad

Showed big power in his bat this summer with 400+ foot HRs

11        Matthew Allan

6-3  210  R/R  RHP     Sanford, FL    Florida            Seminole       Canes 17U National 

Canes National 17U

Up to 95 mph and very good at PGNational. Dominant at PG All American Classic

12        Quinn Priester

6-3  190  R/R  RHP     Cary, IL           TCU    Cary-Grove Community       Blackhawks National         

Blackhawks National

Up to 93 mph at PG National with a lot of life with an outstanding breaking ball

13        Judson Fabian

6-1  190  R/L  OF       Ocala, FL        Florida            Trinity Catholic         Orlando Scorpions    

 

Padres Scout Team (Scorpions/Team GA)

Can flat out mash. Bat stood out at PG National and WWBA. Lots of HRs in PG Tournaments

14        JJ Goss

6-3  185  R/R  RHP     Cypress, TX   Texas A&M    Cypress Ranch          Hunter Pence Baseball - Danielson

Hunter Pence Baseball - Danielson

Showed big time stuff at 17u WWBA Playoffs up to 96 mph. Up to 94 mph at PG National and very good at PG All Americal Classic.

15        Jack Leiter

6-1  195  R/R  Summit, NJ    Vanderbilt      Delbarton       Tri State Arsenal      

Tri-State Arsenal 17U National

Very good at Area Codes and PG All American Classic. Up to 94 mph at PG National. Lows 90s RHP who showed outstanding pitchability at PG Underclass AA Games

Hunter Barco  –

                

      

                   Hunter Barco, LHP, The Bolles School (Jacksonville, Fla.): Barco is starting to look like a bit of a polarizing prospect, as some weren't in love with his arm slot, which seemed to lower as the summer progressed. But he was still up to 93 mph and throwing his breaking ball for strikes at the end of the showcase circuit.

Matt Wallner  –

                  

     

                    Matt Wallner, OF, Southern Miss: Wallner had a brief stint with Team USA, hitting just .154 over four games. He continued his summer on the Cape and hit four homers while driving in 11 over 23 regular-season games before going 5-for-15 in the playoffs. He didn't pitch this summer, but he closes for Southern Miss with a fastball that touches the upper-90s.

Tom Brennan - METS PROSPECTS # 11 THRU # 15

Tom Brennan - METS PROSPECTS # 11 THRU # 15

In the first 2 in this series of 10 articles on the Mets Top 50 prospects, I explained why I felt Messrs. Alonso, Gimenez, Peterson, Mauricio, Kay, Vientos, Szapucki, Lindsay, Alvarez and Richardson were my indisputable #1 thru # 10 dudes, respectively.

Today, I move on to the indisputable # 11 thru # 15 dudes.


# 11 FRANKLYN KILOME RHSP

The mid-season fireballer acquisition showed real progress once in the Mets organization - 38 IP, 42 K, 1.08 WHIP - and then (what else?)  succumbed to Tommy John surgery, which will shelve him for 2019.  He was most likely the hardest thrower in the Mets minors - bummer.

When he returns in 2020, hopefully a) he will pick up where he left off, velocity-wise and otherwise and 2) arrives in Queens by late 2020, as a 25 year old, as a starter or high velocity reliever.

# 12 ADRIAN HERNANDEZ  OF

Yo, Adrian!!!!!

The stocky-but-swift bonus baby had a modest debut in the DSL at age 16 (.261/.351/.386 in 63 games)  He picked up steam in his final month (.289/.375/.434).  Reputed to project to have above average power, here's hoping that Rocky thinks Adrian's 2019 season is fantastic.  My guess is he will play in hitter-friendly Kingsport, but he could start out in the GCL.  

Oh, and fielding?  5 outfield assists and ZERO errors - nice!

# 13 TOMAS NIDO  C

I swallowed hard putting Nido as high as # 13.  GULP!

An above average defensive catcher, but he has shown little to make us believe he can hit in the big leagues as well as Kevin Plawecki has - which Kevin knows is pretty darned bad.  My guess is Nido will be in AAA as the first catcher called up in case of injury.

# 14 FREDDY VALDEZ  OF

A big, bopping bonus baby, the 6'3" 215 Freddy has the expectation of plus plus power.  He will make his debut in 2019, and we will see if he is better than Juan Valdez.  

I love power bats and so I put him this high, in hopes he can be a huge bat in Queens by 2023.  We'll all be Doing The Freddy, as the following video link will make clear.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oE66VvER6rM

# 15 LUIS SANTANA  IF

The short (5'8") infielder put up tall, spectacular numbers (.348/.446/.471) for Kingsport in a hitters' league.  He has decent speed too - 24 out of 31 in steals in 118 games over the last 2 seasons.  

Fielding?  Just 7 errors in 52 games (mostly at 2B), which is impressive for a kid who turned 19 in July of last season (4 days younger than the dearly departed Jarred Kelenic).  

More likely to turn into a MLB utility player than starter, given how few shorter guys excel in the bigs, but let's see what he can do in 2019 for an encore first.  He can become Jose Altuve II, I won't complain.

Fifteen prospects down in my first 3 articles, a mere 35 prospects to go in the weeks ahead.  Keep reading.

The Tony Plate Recap - New York Mets and Houston Astros Talking Trade

The New York Mets and The Houston Astros are talking trade. The Astros have shown interest in New York Mets relief pitcher Seth Lugo. So, now the Mets are looking at the Astros minor league system. 

This gives Mets General Manager Brodie Van Wagenen a chance to improve the Mets farm system which has needed depth for quite some time since being ranked at a low status and recently being affected with the recent block-buster trade with the Seattle Mariners. 

Lugo has basically been a starter throughout his minor-league career and when he first came to the big leagues. The Astros are impressed with Lugo’s average curve RPM of 3173 and excellent fastball. Also, he is under team control for another four years which does improve his trade value. They are looking to fill a void in their starting rotation for a fifth starter and Lugo possibly can fill that void. 

The Astros recently lost Lance McCullers to surgery and Charlie Morton and possibly Dallas Keuchel to free agency, however McCullers might return towards the latter part of 2019. 

Lugo’s statistics show that he is better in relief so, if he does not do well as a starter, he could be an addition to the Astros superb bullpen. I thought there was a chance they would re-sign Keuchel, but there is now talk of the Philadelphia Phillies being interested in him.

The Mets still have other work to do such as looking for a lefthanded relief pitcher and another outfielder and maybe another infielder. 

There is a possibility that former top prospect and the versatile Dilson Herrera who the Mets signed to a minor-league contract back in November and who is only 24 might make the team as a backup infielder. He also, has good speed and can play the outfield.

In other baseball news, nobody as of yet has signed the two biggest free agents on the market Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, which is surprising. 

Harper rejected a ten-year three hundred million dollar offer from the Washington Nationals. If he does not get an offer from another team that would be willing to go higher perhaps there is a chance, he may return to the Nationals much to the dismay of Met fans. 

As for Machado there is talk that the Phillies, New York Yankees and the Chicago White Sox may have an interest in Machado. You would think that the Yankees would stay away from the big free agent contracts for a change and put more money into the farm system to develop starting pitchers since they have put too much money into free agent contact signings in recent years and have not won the World Series since 2009.

Reese Kaplan - What would constitute a Happy New Year for Mets fans?

After all, the bright and active start to the off-season has slowly reached a temporary denouement, perhaps a function of the holiday season, perhaps a matter of “waiting for the market to come to him” or perhaps waiting for the big fruit to land somewhere which might break the logjam of transactions taking place.  As long as ample resources are available in the free agent marketplace many teams might not be inclined to entertain trade offers.

The rationale of waiting does indeed have some merit to it.  After all, pricing is determined by the desirability and scarcity of resources.  As long as a Nelson Cruz was available, for example, what is the need to give up both resources and money to get a Nick Castellanos?

PC - Mack

To be sure there’s still a lot of work to do.  The Mets need at BARE minimum one more outfielder and that is all only if you consider guys like Dom Smith or Jeff McNeil viable alternative outfielders.  Throw two walking wounded in that mix – Travis d’Arnaud and TJ Rivera.  

If you don’t consider any of those four professional caliber outfielders or harbor serious doubts Juan Lagares can be penciled in for pretty much 81 straight games until at the earliest Yoenis Cespedes is due back, then up that to two needed outfielders.

PC - Mack

The bullpen work was off to a great start with the addition by trade of Edwin Diaz and by free agency of Jeurys Familia.  Joined by Seth Lugo, that’s a good start.  Robert Gsellman and the younger pitchers are all very much works in progress and right now the only lefty of the bunch is the short term trial of Daniel Zamora.  One would think another lefty should be at the top of BVW’s shopping list.  

With Andrew Miller off the boards, there are still available options in free agency.  Zach Britton, Jerry Blevins, Tony Sipp, Justin Wilson, Luis Avilan and Oliver Perez are all there to the highest bidder.

There are plenty of right handed options as well if you are willing to go in that direction given the story already being spun about reverse platoon splits of the existing relief corps.  This group would include Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Kelvin Herrera, Cody Allen, Ryan Madson, Adam Ottavino, Adam Warren, Sergio Romo and many others. 

There are many who would argue that perhaps the Mets are moving in the wrong direction and should instead look at starting pitchers with Daniel Zamora and career starter Jason Vargas into a reliever.  He wouldn’t be the only pitcher in his thirties to make that transition, particularly after his less than stellar sequel tenure with the Mets.  

The rationale would be that if you added another good starter who might help you win every fifth day while Vargas only plays in mop-up duty or blowouts.  If he suddenly rediscovers how to pitch then he could earn his way into emergency starter duty or when injuries happen.

On the FA starter market there are quite a few names worth considering for this role, headed by James Shields, Dallas Keuchel, Ervin Santana, Gio Gonzalez, Shelby Miller, Francisco Liriano, Hisashi Iwakuma, Jeremy Hellickson, Ross Detwiler and even Bartolo Colon.

Until a large number of free agency signings begins to take place there’s likely little movement taking place in on the trade front. Consequently I think BVW ought to be pushing REAL HARD on the trade front now for any prospective targets.  The prices will only go up afterwards.   

Happy New Year

Mack's Mets is closed for New Year's day.

Have an enjoyable holiday with your friends and family.

Tom Brennan - METS PROSPECTS # 6 THRU # 10

OK, so I passed on infallible, indisputable truths on Friday - namely, that Peter Alonso, Andres Gimenez, David Peterson, Ronny Mauricio, and David Kay are the Mets' # 1 thru # 5 prospects, respectively.

But let's not waste time - who are the equally indisputable # 6 thru # 10 Mets prospects?  

Hint: 5 guys who are highly unlikely to make the Queens club in 2019.

# 6 Mark Vientos IF

He reminds me of Wilmer Flores, just with more power, better fielding, and somewhat better speed.  He hit great as a 17 year old second rounder in 2017, ditto as an 18 year old in 2018, and why the heck should 2019 be different?  

I expect a GREAT season from MV Hammer in 2019...like 35 doubles, 20-25 HRs, 85 RBIs and .285 in A ball.  Future starting MLB infielder IMO.

# 7 Tom Szapucki LHSP

The blazing lefty reluctantly cooled his pits in 2018 following Tommy John surgery, but he sure looked dazzling prior thereto.  He is my third lefty fireballer in my top 7 prospects.

# 7 is a high rating given that recovery from TJS is not always 100%, but I am assuming he will return fine like my # 5 pick David Kay. Possible 2021 rotation dude, or a high-powered, late inning lefty reliever.

# 8  Desmond Lindsay  OF

I oughta be committed for having Lindsay (with the appropriate initials "DL") as high as my # 8 Mets prospect.  

But I am going to believe real hard that he'll stay healthy for a change in 2019 and show us what his high degree of athleticism and improved swing will do to propel him as arguably the Mets' best minor league outfielder.   A break-through season could have him in Queens by 2020.

Just keep him far away from the careening Juan Lagares and we should be all right.


# 9  Francisco Alvarez  C

Still 17 for 2019, this big bucks ($2.9 mil) bonus baby catcher is reputed to have a booming bat.  Let's see if he can be Peter Alonso bat-wise, while wearing the tools of ignorance, this year.  

Hey, Francisco, Wilson Ramos is only signed for 2 years, so if you're considered to be THAT good, why not be our 18 year old catcher in Queens in 2020?

OK, OK, that is greedy and unrealistic...I can wait until 2021 when you are 19 to be the Mets starting catcher.  (Mack just passed me my meds). 

OK, OK, but you better get to the Mets at age 20 by 2022, Francisco.   

The DSL is likely his starting point, given his lack of age, but he could follow # 4 prospect Ronny Mauricio's 2018 steps and debut in the GCL, too.

Anyway, Alvarez was Baseball America's No. 9 international prospect last summer, signed for $2.9 mil; they described him as "one of the strongest players in the class, (with) a stout, blocky frame, although he moves surprising well...for his size...(his) swing starts with a small toe tap and he generates big raw power with an aggressive hack."  Works for me.


# 10  Simeon Woods-Richardson RHSP

The 2018, 17 year old uber-athletic second rounder had a heck of a minor league debut over limited innings, showing superior velocity and stuff.  

You all know me by now - I am not at all greedy - I don't expect him to pitch in Queens younger than Doc Gooden did - but I can dream of him showing up like Doc at age 19.  

Much more likely he shows up at age 20 or 21 in 2021 or 2022.  Maybe he can be a top-of-rotation pitcher.  

Hopefully he gets to Queens in less time than it takes to pronounce his lengthy name.


Yep - a very promising 6 thru 10 - let's hope that prospect promise turns into top tier big league performance in a few years for all 5 of them.

NEXT ARTICLE: # 11 THRU # 15.