JDs Top 10 Shortstops- PIITB By JD

 JDs Top 10 Shortstops

 

This is the next most controversial position I could do. There is a ton of talent at shortstop right now. Lots of power and some great defense as well. We are truly in the golden age of shortstops. Let’s get going. 

 

1.     Carlos Correa- Yes. The infamous “former” Met is the best Shortstop in baseball.  Correa is the best hitter among the shortstops for sure. With 25+ home run pop, career .836 OPS, and finished with a 140 wrc+ last year. If you want to play the WAR game, he only had 4.4 last year which was definitely a down year. If healthy Correa will have at least 5.5 fWAR this season. Correa is elite on both sides of the ball and is going to continue to take his game to new heights if his leg allows. 

2.     Francisco Lindor- Lindor finished 1^ST in WAR among shortstops last season with a sparkling 6.8 fwar. His gold glove defense is accompanied by a very sold (albeit inconsistent) hit tool. His career OPS sits at .816 which is definitely elite. He hasn’t had an MVP level season since his time in Cleveland, however I believe with another year under his belt in NY Lindor will take his game to the next level. As a Mets fan, I would take another 6.8 fwar season any day of the week, but I believe he can do even more. Hopefully when I do these rankings after the season Lindor will get that top spot.

3.     Trea Turner- People have Turner ranked anywhere in the top 3 and for good reason. Turner is a true 5 tool player. His speed has never dipped below the 99^th percentile since entering the big leagues. He hits for power, average, and makes some spectacular plays in the field. Not to mention his slick sliding skills. Turner couples his .842 career ops with his ability to steal bases making him extremely dangerous. His 6.3 fwar was third to Lindor and Swanson last season and he will be elite for years to come. 

4.     Wander Franco- I am very high on Wander going into this season. This may be a bit of an aggressive placement, but I believe in Wander. He has all the tools to be great. With a 2.3 War in just over half a season that projects him around 4.5 fwar. He is just tapping into his abilities as a 22-year-old phenom. He will be great, just watch.

5.     Xander Bogaerts- This man can hit. He hits for power, he hits for contact, he is a complete hitter. His career .814 OPS shows what he can do. He just graded out on FanGraphs positively for defense for the first-time last season which is encouraging for Padres fans. Coming off a 6.1 fwar season, watch out.

6.     Corey Seager- This is another guy that contributes on the offensive side of the ball more than defensively. He had just a 117 wrc+ last year but a 146 wrc+ in 2021 (albeit 93 games). Seager can hit that is for sure. He has 30+ home run pop and gets on base at a decent clip. I expect his offense to improve this year, although he is not a shortstop in my opinion.

7.     Dansby Swanson- Swanson is coming off a career year in which he his 25 homers, had 99 rbis, with .776 ops, and a 116 wrc+. He had 6.4 fwar last year which ranked second in baseball behind Lindor. Swanson is an elite defender with a solid bat. He has a new home at Wrigley for a long time. I am happy to have him out of the NL East, although his replacement isn’t bad either.

8.     Willy Adames- I feel like Adames is still that rookie everyone was talking about. He is far from that at this point in his career. He is now in his prime and showing it. With 31 bombs last year and elite defense Adames is one of the game’s best. He strugged in the on base department but that feels like more of an anomaly than anything else. He had a 4.7 fwar last year and he could be even better this year.

9.     Bo Bichette- Another excellent hitter. Bichette had a 129 wrc+ last year and a.802 ops. He has issues in the field for sure, but his offense makes up for it. Bichette sported a 4.5fwar last year and I see no reason for that to go down. If he can learn to field, he could be a 6+ war player. He was in the 7^thpercentile in OAA last season for reference. That is extremely poor. Imagine what an average glove would do to his game.

10.  Jeremy Pena- The most famous rookie of the 2022 playoffs. This guy was the talk of October. He absolutely raked in the playoffs. He had a 186 wrc+ and over 1000 ops. He could not be stopped. His regular season stats were average, but he made a change in his swing later in the season that allowed him to have this historic playoff run. Pena finished with a 3.4 fwar last season at just 24 years old. He will climb this list very quickly in the years to come.

 

This list was definitely the toughest yet. You can’t play the WAR game with this group nearly as much due to injuries. I have seen a ton of variability across the baseball landscape while ranking shortstops, more than any other position. Leave your comments below!

 

 

 

Reese Kaplan -- Closing the Door Makes Sense, but Opening it for...???

As speculated when the NY Post broke the story last week, the Mets just announced they were cutting former 40-man roster position holder Khalil Lee when the domestic violence incident came to light. 

At the time I speculated that the club would do well to rid themselves of this man to send a message to fellow ballplayers (and other Mets employees) that such behavior would not be tolerated. The fact that Lee was a mediocre minor leaguer made this decision much easier to make than if he'd been a blue chip prospect.

Going through his statistics you see a guy with a career .247 average who occasionally flashed power, once posted an eye popping 53 stolen bases, but as of late did very little of anything. His final 2022 stats in Syracuse included a .211 average with 10 HRs, 37 RBIs and 14 stolen bases. His SLG, OBP and OPS numbers were nothing spectacular for his whole baseball career, so he will look to catch on with an independent minor league team, a squad offshore somewhere or find out what it's like if he receives criminal penalties for how he treated his ex girlfriend.

Congratulations to the Mets for doing the right thing. However...

Spots on the 40-man roster are not exactly of negligible value. There are minor leaguers who right now are going to receive non-roster invitations to Spring Training in Port St. Lucie. Every now and then someone emerges during the preseason whose performance exceeds expectations or addresses a specific team need. Recently the Mets found both position players and pitchers who fit that mold.

The Mets instead immediately ran out and signed a cut player from another club to take Lee's former home of the 40-man roster. The player in question was a relief pitcher by the name of Sam Coonrod whose own former Philadelphia Phillies career ended when that club signed free agent Josh Harrison and they needed to create a spot on their roster for the utility man.

So who exactly is Sam Coonrod and why did the Mets choose to sign him? Could it be that the Mets felt it was a dig at one of their division rivals? Were they simply taking a chance that he could blossom into something special? Or was it his past performance that made Billy Eppler and company say, "Yeah, he's our guy!" Well, the possibilities of options one and two could possibly exist, but going over his back of the baseball card statistics suggest that he's not exactly Cy Young material.

At age 30, you're looking at a guy who has logged over 100 games in the major leagues starting at age 26, but the experience is nothing to warrant bragging. He's sporting a 7-5 record with a career 5.27 ERA in the majors. Now if he'd done that while having a cup of coffee as a former September call-up or when fighting back injury, you might think it doesn't mean anything, but when you've had 97 innings of work, it suggests a trend.

So if you delve deeper into the minor leagues, then you see a guy whose ERA is significantly better a 3.77, but with a losing record spread over 444 innings pitched he fanned nearly 1 per inning but also gave up 4 walks per every nine innings pitched. His WHIP was nearly 1.300 and nothing jumps out as deserving of a winning team's 40-man roster spot, hence the Phillies' decision. 

While it's possible the in-depth pitching struggles could make him into a cubic zirconia in the rough, the likelihood of him emerging as a diamond during his age 31 season is slim at best.

So that brings us back to the question of why...why sign Coonrod to fill the open roster spot? Many here are more attuned to the minors and prospect rankings than I am, but it would seem there are likely more deserving folks in-house already as well as free agents who could be lured onto the Mets who have a track record of greater quality.

Granted, a well behaved member of the organization would be appreciated more than one facing criminal charges, but if the objective is to employ the best of the best, on paper at least this move makes little sense.  

Mike's Mets - Remember When Darren O'Day Was a Met?

 

By Mike Steffanos

The Mets have had problems developing relievers — even when they already had one on their roster.

Veteran sidearming reliever Darren O'Day announced his retirement from baseball last week after 15 MLB campaigns. Age and injuries had slowed O'Day down quite a bit over the last few seasons, but he enjoyed an excellent major league career. He started with the Angels' organization as an undrafted free agent in 2006 after pitching for the University of Florida in college. This was back when the amateur draft was 50 rounds long. Hundreds of players were drafted who never even sniffed the major leagues. Meanwhile, O'Day went on to appear in 644 major league games, all in relief.

O'Day broke in with the Angels in 2008, appearing in 30 games out of their bullpen. But they failed to protect him in the rule 5 draft in December 2008, and the Mets selected the young righty. The Mets would have to keep Darren on their roster all season or offer him back to the Angels. He didn't pitch all that badly for the Mets in April, appearing in 4 games and allowing a pair of unearned runs. For a team that would go on to lose 90 games and finish a distant 4th in the NL East, holding on to a promising reliever who hadn't pitched all that bad might seem a no-brainer. However, after consecutive collapses in the previous two seasons, GM Omar Minaya was on his way out and desperate to cobble together a contender from what was left of the great 2006 club.

I don't even remember the exact move that led to O'Day being offered back to the Angels, but they declined, and Darren was put on waivers and selected by the Texas Rangers. Darren O'Day enjoyed two terrific seasons with Texas, then went on to pitch effectively over 7 seasons for the Orioles. Age and injuries caught up with him after that, but it was a hell of a career for a pitcher not deemed good enough to be taken by any of the 30 MLB clubs over 50 rounds of drafting.

Now, every club makes mistakes from time to time with personnel decisions. What irked me about the Mets' decision on O'Day was that their bullpen was not a strength for them that season, and O'Day went on to immediate success with the Rangers. This wasn't a fluke, either. During O'Day's prime, which began in 2009 through the 2015 season with Baltimore, O'Day appeared in over 400 games, pitching to a 2.07  ERA, striking out a batter per inning while stingily allowing only 6.4 H/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9. The Mets could have really used that guy.

The other thing that really bothered me about the botched decision on Darren O'Day was that it was a pattern of failure with the Mets in the 21st Century. Even as they struggled to develop bullpen arms from within the organization, there were some mighty poor decisions made with pitchers they actually had on their roster, like Darren O'Day.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

NEW INFO - 2023 Draft Prospect - 3B - Brock Wilken

 

Brock Wilken 

3B Wake Forest 

2021 WF stat line - 60-G, 254-AB, .272, 23-HR

 

1-9-23 - FIVE SUPER-SLEEPERS WHO COULD GO NO. 1 IN THE 2023 MLB DRAFT

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2023/1/7/five-super-sleepers-who-could-go-no-1-in-the-2023-mlb-draft?s=03 

BROCK WILKEN, THIRD BASE, WAKE FOREST

Wilken burst onto the scene on the Cape in 2021, posting an outlandish .302/.440/.519 slash as a teenager playing up against the best competition in the country. Wilken has been one of the most prodigious power hitters in college baseball the last two seasons totaling 40 homers, matching LSU outfielder Dylan Crews during that same period. Wilken’s slash line backed up a bit as a sophomore. After striking out at a 17.3 percent clip as a freshman, Wilken saw his K-rate jump to 24.2% last season. Jeren Kendall is the only college hitter to ever get drafted in the first round with a strikeout rate over 24% in their draft-eligible year. History suggests Wilken will need to see that bat-to-ball mature back to the career mean this spring.

 

What Wilken showed as a freshman at Wake Forest is hard to ignore. And his batted-ball metrics last season still point to an impact bat that can carry a team. At his best, Wilken’s exit velocities ranked just outside the 99th percentile in college baseball last season. He maxed out close to 111 mph last season. Simply put, there aren’t many players who hit the ball harder than Wilken.  

 

In 2022, Wilken’s bat-to-ball woes may have stemmed from passivity at the plate. His 41.9 percent swing rate should probably jump a bit next season, especially early in the count. Wilken actually doesn’t chase outside the zone much, but he does struggle to hit the breaking ball in the zone at times. From this chair, ambushing pitches early in counts and getting pitchers off their best weapons could pay dividends next season. The approach late in at-bats is solid. The foundation is strong. It’s pretty easy to foresee a major jump in Wilken’s production in 2023.  

 

Wilken is an average defender with solid hands and footwork, though his first step and fringy range do bring his defensive profile down a peg. That said, it’s comfortably a plus throwing arm, maybe more. That certainly helps make up for some of his heavy-footedness, especially on backhands to his right. He’s a fringe-average runner and likely won’t ever be a threat on the base paths. If Wilken posts a season like his 2021 campaign, he’ll shoot up boards as a potential solid average hitter with 70-grade raw power. His upside is that of an average defender who’s capable of posting several .260 seasons with 40 home run juice. Every team in baseball would happily throw $8 million at the promise of that kind of production.

12-14-22 - Sox Machine

WAY-TOO-EARLY 2023 MLB MOCK DRAFT

https://soxmachine.com/2022/12/way-too-early-2023-mlb-mock-draft/

26. New York Yankees: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

The Yankees love drafting power and Wilken fits perfectly. The third baseman strikes out too much but shows massive power with a 6-4, 225 pound frame.

12-9-22 - 2023 MLB MOCK DRAFT 1.0

https://throughthefencebaseball.com/2023-mlb-mock-draft-1-0-pirates-taking-who/

18. Milwaukee Brewers: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

Wilken reminds me of an Alec Bohm mixed with Nolan Gorman and a dash of Jace Jung. He knows how to find his pitch and take advantage of it. This past spring he hit 23 homers, and what’s scary is we haven’t even seen all of his power yet.

12-7-22 - MLB DRAFT 2023: WINTER'S MOCK DRAFT - https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/MLB-Draft-2023-Mock-Draft-First-Edition-4397815602?s=03 -

26

Yankees

Brock Wilken

3B

Wake Forest; Bloomingdale HS (FL)

Wilken has hit 40 homers combined in his first two seasons at Wake and won 2021 Cape League MVP honors after his freshman year. The Yanks have selected power-hitting college bats in each of the past three drafts. Let's make it four.

 

12-6-22 - 2023 MLB DRAFT - MOCK DRAFT 2.0 - https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-mock-draft-n78w7-st9r4-wa35p-2n5ls-8addg-ed27s?s=03 - 

34. Minnesota Twins

Brock Wilken, Third Base, Wake Forest 

Wilken has some swing-and-miss presently in his game, and that will need to be cleaned up if he’s to go this early in the draft, but it’s hard to ignore the outlandish power Wilken produces. He projects a future average defender at third base with a plus arm too. This is a potential middle-of-the-lineup thumper with 30 homer power if it all clicks.

 

12-2-22 - 2022 Fall Report: Wake Forest - https://d1baseball.com/fall-report/2022-wake-forest/?goal=0_98c95d11a2-2375b409ba-536911606&mc_cid=2375b409ba&mc_eid=b3ee91b95b -

 

The third Deac to play for Team USA last summer, Brock Wilken’s calling card has always been his gargantuan righthanded power, which has translated to 40 career home runs over his first two seasons. But he’s worked hard to become a more complete player since last spring.

 

11-28-22 - 2023 MLB Draft: College Top 100 Prospects - https://d1baseball.com/prospects/2023-mlb-draft-college-top-100-prospects/ -

 

21 Brock Wilken 3B Wake Forest ACC

 

 

11-12-22 - 2023 MLB Draft – Top 50 College Prospects -

https://www.prospects1500.com/mlb-draft/2023-mlb-draft-top-50-college-prospects/ 

 

21. Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest – Wilken is a power-power prospect as he has a true plus arm and has as much raw power at the plate as anyone in college baseball. His freshman campaign saw him launch a program record 17 long balls in just 47 games, then following it up with 23 in 60 games a season ago. The power has translated to wood bats as he has 11 home runs in 68 games on the Cape. He adjusts well to all vertical sections of the zone, but can get beat away and strikes out often. In the field, his range suggests a future move to first, but he has decent hands and the aforementioned cannon of an arm just might allow him to stick at third.

 

11-4-22 - Perfect Game 2023 MLB Mock Draft 1.0 -

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=21422&src=hmrep&s=03  

 

30. Houston Astros | Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

 

Wilken has some strikeout rate concerns, but there is a reason he was once considered a potential top-5 pick in the past. Wilken can offset some of the whiffs with his ability to draw walks at a high clip, while big-time power plays to all fields and shows up in-game often. Wilken has a chance to be a legit offensive threat if the hit tool holds up. -TH

 

10-19-22 - https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects-fx4td?s=03 -

 

28 3B

Brock Wilken

Wake Forest

Wilken is a middle-of-the-order power bat with an advanced approach. He had huge freshman season in both ACC and Cape Cod League play. His raw power is prodigious, and his batting practice displays frequently contain balls hit hard in a way that no one else on the field can replicate. Swing and miss is in Wilken's profile, particularly with off-speed stuff away, but he has a good eye and possesses a selective approach befitting of a man that abhors striking out. Wilken really limits his strikeouts and fights deep into at-bats to ensure such an outcome. At third base, Wilken has solid enough hands and reacts well to batted balls, but isn't very rangy due to below average foot speed. The big plus here is a rocket arm, and that helps mitigate skepticism about him sticking at third as a pro.

 

10-16-22 - 2023 MLB Draft: an early look at the ACC

http://dugoutedgebaseball.blogspot.com/2022/10/2023-mlb-draft-early-look-at-acc.html?m=1&s=03 -

 

4. 3B Brock Wilken, Wake Forest.

Bat: R. Throw: R. 6'4", 225 lbs. Born 6/17/2002. Hometown: Valrico, FL.

2022: 23 HR, .272/.362/.602, 0 SB, 71/34 K/BB in 60 games.

In a conference full of power bats, you might not find one more prodigious than Brock Wilken. The Tampa-area product has already blasted 40 home runs over two years at Wake Forest, plus thirteen more over Cape seasons. He really cemented himself as a top prospect in this class with a fantastic run through the Cape Cod League in 2021, just as he was turning 19 years old, and when you include his more ordinary 2022 Cape season he hit .271/.400/.471 over 73 games. So long story short, Wilken has faced a huge sample of high level pitching and has consistently performed for a long time now. While Yohandy Morales is leaner, Wilken is a barrel chested 6'4" that looks like he would fit right in for Dave Clawson on the gridiron. He deploys that copious strength into big right handed swings, and the ball just jumps off his bat like few in college baseball. He can easily put it out to any field with plus power and does plenty of damage on mishits as well, and if he makes enough contact, he could profile for thirty-plus home runs a year at the major league level. Wilken is a patient hitter that works counts well, spoiling tough pitches until he gets a good one to hit, though he does get into trouble occasionally in those deep counts and his 24.2% strikeout rate last spring was a bit higher than you'd like to see. He'll probably always struggle with swing and miss, but that grinder mentality in the box will serve him well and he has done nothing but hit for a very long time now. He also possesses a plus arm that could give him a shot at third base, though he'll need to get more agile to stick there long term. At his ceiling, he could be a similar player to Pete Alonso.

 

10-14-22 - Cape Cod Top Prospect List - https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=21362&s=03 -

 

No. 1 Prospect, 2021: Brock Wilken, 3B, Harwich (Wake Forest)

 

 

10-9-22 - Mazdak Darvari @darvari_mazdak

 

Brock Wilken (‘23 elig.) collected 2 hits today & has made a big name for himself since arriving to Wake. The 2x CCBL All  and 2021 Official CCBL MVP has 40 career HRs for Wake Baseball. Has some of the class’ biggest raw power & the tools to stick at 3B; projected 1st rounder https://t.co/MgVCYERlFO 

 

10-7-22 - Pittsburgh Pirates: Way Too Early Look at the 2023 MLB Draft - https://rumbunter.com/2022/09/14/pittsburgh-pirates-early-look-2023-mlb-draft/ -

 

The best power bat in this year’s draft class is Brock Wilken. Wilken is a third baseman from Wake Forest University. Wilken has been a great hitter throughout college, slashing .275/.363/.609 with 40 home runs. He’s absolutely ripped the cover off the ball with a .334 isolated slugging percentage and a pace of 47 home runs every 600 plate appearances. He also has a healthy 11.4% walk rate. The downside? He has a career 21.4% K-rate and struck out in 24.2% of his plate appearances last season.

 

Wilken’s glove at third base is fringy, though he has a powerful arm. The red flags are there, but so are the signs of potential. FanGraphs projects him to grow into 80-raw power eventually. Though how good his power will play will likely depend on if he can cut down on the K’s. If Wilken could improve in the strikeout department, he may go within the first five selections.

 

9-19-22 - Top 20 college prospects for '23 Draft -

https://www.mlb.com/amp/news/top-college-prospects-for-2023-mlb-draft.html -

 

20. Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

Wilken tied Wake Forest's freshman home run record with 17, then encored with 23 last spring while batting .272/.362/.602 -- albeit with 71 strikeouts. He might have the most raw power in the college class but there are questions about his ability to make consistent contact and remain at the hot corner, though he does have the requisite arm strength.

 

9-7-22 - https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022-mlb-mock-draft-n78w7-st9r4-wa35p-2n5ls-8addg -

 

28. Houston Astros

Brock Wilken, Third Base, Wake Forest

 

Wilken has some swing-and-miss presently in his game, and that will need to be cleaned up if he’s to go this early in the draft, but it’s hard to ignore the outlandish power Wilken produces. He projects a future average defender at third base with an above average arm too. This is a potential middle-of-the-lineup thumper with 30 homer power if it all clicks.

 

 

8-3-2022 -

Ranking the Top 30 2023 MLB Draft Prospects -

 

https://www.oddschecker.com/us/insight/baseball/mlb/20220803-2023-mlb-mock-draft-ranking-the-top-30-2023-mlb-draft-prospects -

 

17. Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

 

7-28-22 - Top Third Basemen In 2023 Draft -

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects -

 

31 3B

Brock Wilken

Wake Forest

Wilken is a middle-of-the-order power bat with an advanced approach. He had huge freshman season in both ACC and Cape Cod League play. His raw power is prodigious, and his batting practice displays frequently contain balls hit hard in a way that no one else on the field can replicate. Swing and miss is in Wilken's profile, particularly with off-speed stuff away, but he has a good eye and possesses a selective approach befitting of a man that abhors striking out. Wilken really limits his strikeouts and fights deep into at-bats to ensure such an outcome. At third base, Wilken has solid enough hands and reacts well to batted balls, but isn't very rangy due to below average foot speed. The big plus here is a rocket arm, and that helps mitigate skepticism about him sticking at third as a pro.

 

2023 MLB Draft mock

https://www.mlb.com/news/2023-mlb-draft-mock -

 

12. Rockies: Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

 

Teams looking for college power bats will certainly be watching Wilken closely. The third baseman hit 17 homers as a freshman, then six more in the Cape Cod League that summer. He followed that up with 23 more this past spring.

 

7-19-22 - 2023 MLB Draft: 10 College Players to Know -

https://baseballprospectjournal.com/2023-mlb-draft-10-college-players-to-know/ -

 

Brock Wilken, 3B, Wake Forest

 

Wilken is a big-time power hitter who uses all parts of the field. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound right-handed hitter is more of a power over average hitter and is aggressive every time he steps to the plate. His approach sometimes leads to strikeouts, as he has recorded 107 strikeouts to 57 walks in two seasons at Wake Forest.

 

Defensively, Wilken is an adequate defender and will play third base in pro ball due to his strong arm.

 

7-28-22 - 2023 MLB DRAFT - TOP 150 PROSPECTS

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/1/15/2023-mlb-draft-prospects 

 

31 3B

Brock Wilken Wake Forest

 

Wilken is a middle-of-the-order power bat with an advanced approach. He had huge freshman season in both ACC and Cape Cod League play. His raw power is prodigious, and his batting practice displays frequently contain balls hit hard in a way that no one else on the field can replicate. Swing and miss is in Wilken's profile, particularly with off-speed stuff away, but he has a good eye and possesses a selective approach befitting of a man that abhors striking out. Wilken really limits his strikeouts and fights deep into at-bats to ensure such an outcome. At third base, Wilken has solid enough hands and reacts well to batted balls, but isn't very rangy due to below average foot speed. The big plus here is a rocket arm, and that helps mitigate skepticism about him sticking at third as a pro.

 

All the 2023 Draft Prospects in the Mack’s Mets database can be viewed by going to www.macksmets.blogspot.com and clicking on 2023 DRAFT PROSPECT DATABASE found on the top, left of the front page of the site. 

The Mack Report (Baty, Zeigler, Parada, "Top 10 Players Right Now", McNeil, Allan)

The Athletic - Keith Law

31. Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets

Age: 23 | 6-3 | 210 pounds

Bats: Left | Throws: Right

Drafted: No. 12 in 2019

Last year’s ranking: 41

Baty was nearly out of a job a few weeks ago, so I imagine he was the one person in the Mets organization happy when the Carlos Correa signing fell through. Baty is a strong hitter, topping out at 113 mph in his major-league stint last year and averaging over 91 mph on 30 batted balls (so yes, small sample size caveats apply). He returned to Double A to start 2022 after spending 40 games there to finish the prior year, and demolished the level, hitting .312/.406/.544 and cutting his ground-ball rate from 61 percent there in 2021 to 42.6 percent last year. He did backslide a little in the majors, so there’s some swing maintenance for the Mets to do so he stays rotational enough to get the ball in the air. Baty is big for third baseman but a solid athlete who’s worked hard on his defense, which is more than just playable there, but I don’t know if he’d be as good in an outfield corner, so staying at third is by far his best chance to be an above-average regular. The Mets should just give him 500 at bats this year, as there’s nothing left for him to learn in the minors, and he’s by far their best option there. He has the raw power for 30 homers, but I think he’ll be more 40 doubles/20 homers with OBPs well above .350. 

                        CBS - 2. Brett Baty, 3B (2023 seasonal age: 23)

Baty, the 12th pick in the 2019 draft, reached the majors for the first time last season, but his stay was short-lived. He appeared in just 11 games before undergoing thumb surgery that ended his campaign in late August. Baty's path back to the Mets big-league lineup is more complicated now that Carlos Correa is in tow, but he's a potential above-average hitter who lifted the ball and slugged more during his stay last season in Double-A. In other words, he should find a lineup welcoming to his talents, be it in New York or elsewhere. 

                        1-25-23 - The Athletic

Before his two quick promotions, Brett Baty, 23, destroyed Double-A pitching, and scouts liked how he tapped into more power without sacrificing consistent contact. So far in 2023, prospect publications have ranked him inside the top 20 overall. He should soon graduate from such lists. 

Much like how Narváez and Nido are in front of Álvarez at catcher, Eduardo Escobar occupies third base ahead of Baty. For now, anyway. Escobar provides stability as a veteran presence, but even if he opens the season as the Mets’ third baseman, rival evaluators forecast at least a platoon situation with Baty at some point in 2023. Baty bats from the left side, and although Escobar is a switch-hitter, he’s posted better numbers against lefties. Also, the Mets hold a club option on Escobar for 2024; by then Baty may have already proven himself capable of the full-time role. While Baty can play other positions like left field, Eppler said the Mets want him to focus just on third base, where he has room to grow defensively. 

            The Athletic - Why Mets prospect Brett Baty spent a critical winter working with Troy Tulowitzki

Ahead of what could be a critical 2023 season, Baty sought help to improve defensively at third base. He turned to a former star shortstop in Tulowitzki, who essentially gave Baty a no-nonsense master class on how to be a pro. It was exactly what he wanted. 

Over 13 years in the major leagues, Tulowitzki earned five All-Star appearances and captured two Gold Glove awards. But beyond those accolades, Tulowitzki’s credentials include being a first-round pick, something he shares in common with Baty. 

Baty’s big bat and large frame — 6-foot-3, 215 pounds — provide a strong foundation to build upon. 

“Third base, he still needs to work at it, but I think he’d be the first one to tell you that,” Tulowitzki said. “He needs to get better over there. But some people need to get better because they aren’t athletic enough or don’t have arm strength. He’s got all the tools. He just needs some reps.” 

Mack - this is a lot of Baty-news, but the most important  info comes from The Athletic in the last entry that Brett has been working his defensive ass off during the off-season with Tulo. We know this kid can hit at the major league level. The question mark is his defense on the hot corner. 

He needs to play there and it’s up to the Mets if he does in 2023. 

 

New York Mets Top 50 Prospects (2023)

https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-east/mets/new-york-mets-top-50-prospects-2023/?s=03 

10. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, 20, Single-A

Ziegler threw his first innings of his career in 2022 in St. Lucie where he had a 4.44 ERA in 16 starts. He held his opponents to a .166 average but had 35 walks in 46.2 innings. He was limited this year due to general arm soreness which isn’t a huge concern right now, but his high spin rates on his great pitch mix will continue to develop. Ziegler needs some command help if he wants to continue rising through the system. 

Mack - I really like Zeigler, though I was disappointed in his stat line in 2022. Let’s see what 2023 brings in Brooklyn.

 

CBS - 3. Kevin Parada, C (2023 seasonal age: 19)

The Mets spent the first of their two first-round picks last summer on Parada, a power-hitting backstop from Georgia Tech. Parada homered 26 times with the Yellow Jackets, all while posting some impressive exit velocity numbers and walking nearly as often as he struck out. If that continues, there's a possibility that he grows into a middle-of-the-order hitter. Parada's defense is a work in progress, but he's made enough gains for scouts to feel he'll remain playable behind the dish. Expect his stock to shoot up if and/or when the automated all-strike system makes its way to the major-league level. 

Mack - Don’t like the trashing of his defensive game here. I think his defensive game is much better than this. Yes, his throwing out runners at second does need vast improvement, but the rest of his defensive skills are par to slightly above par.

Current projections have him opening up this season for Brooklyn and ending the season in Binghamton. 

 

The Mets did well this month on the MLB Network's "Top 10 Players Right Now" list .

Eight players made their top 10 lists, at seven positions. 

The number one relief pitcher was Edwin Diaz while Justin Verlander (#2) and Max Scherzer (#4) made the starter list. In the outfield, Brandon Nimmo came in as the #4 centerfielder, while Starling Marte was voted #7 in right. Lastly, three infielders were named, Jeff McNeil as the #2 second baseman, Francisco Lindor as the #5 shortstop, and Pete Alonso as the number 5 first baseman. 

Hopefully, someday soon we make both the third base and catcher list. 

 

How Jeff McNeil’s path to an extension with the Mets began with a simple dinner - The Athletic -

The two then ventured into planning mode, scrambling to figure out how Eppler could meet with McNeil before the work stoppage was set to begin in just a few weeks. The original plan was for all three men to convene in Los Angeles. But because Longo and Eppler already had shared history, the agent made a suggestion to the GM: “Why don’t you just go to dinner with Jeff and you two talk?” 

So McNeil drove down from just north of Santa Barbara. Eppler drove up from southern Orange County. They met near LAX for dinner, making McNeil the first Mets player that Eppler sat down with as the new GM. 

Sitting across the table, Eppler outlined the Mets’ expectations for McNeil and emphasized that whatever transpired during his 2021 season did not matter. That year, McNeil hit .251/.319/.360 with seven home runs in 426 plate appearances. It was a stark dropoff from his previous two campaigns, when he slashed .316/.384/.511 through 776 plate appearances. Still, Eppler told McNeil that his skill set was “extremely valuable for this organization.” 

Mack - See? Sometimes all it takes is a simple gesture like breaking bread. 

This should silent some of the “Fire Eppler” people on Twitter. 

 

UPDATE: We just wrote about pitching prospect Matt Allan and his progress after three tough years. Well, the Mets announced on Saturday that Allan was returned to the operating table in January for a “UCL revision”. That’s another TJS and basically puts him on the shelf for the 2023 season. 

The Mets top pitching prospect hasn’t thrown a pitch since 2020 and has only 10.1 pro innings under his belt. Amazingly he will be Rule 5 eligibly before his first full season. 

We wish him well but it’s hard to believe he will return at the level he was projected when he was drafted.

Tom Brennan - Dellin Betances, Jeurys Familia and Bryce Montes de Oca: A Comparison

I expect big things out of the mountainous righty in 2023. 

As we have now entered pitchers and catchers month, I am seemingly the loudest proponent of Bryce Montes de Oca (BMDO), who somehow seems to evade the Mets' Top 30 Prospect radar screen.

Let's briefly break down his career, then compare him to two major leaguers who have had much MLB reliever success.  Perhaps, then, you'll see why I hold this prospect, BMDO, in high regard.

BMDO was drafted in the 9th round (260th overall) of 2018 (interestingly, Jacob deGrom was a 9th rounder, 272nd overall, in 2010).

Immediately, before an official pro inning, BMDO needed Tommy John surgery, had a tough stretch of getting over arm injuries - and then came the 2020 COVID lockout.  Quite a Delay of Game Penalty.

Bizarrely, such circumstances are how BMDO finally made his pro debut in 2021, a long ways off from his 2018 draft night.  Not typically a good sign.  Low expectations were the logical conclusion of most.  He was in totally "prove it to me" mode.

So, in 2021, BMDO is used rather lightly and cautiously, just 26 outings in Brooklyn and 2 games in Binghamton.

1-3, 4.73 in 2021 in Brooklyn in 32 innings. Allowed 22 hits, 27 walks, 5 HBP, 20 runs. Not good. 

42 Ks, though?  Not bad.  1 HR allowed, also not bad.  6 for 6 in saves?  Nice.

His 2021 Binghamton cameo, though, was attention-getting.  1.2 IP, 1 H, no walks, all 5 outs by Ks.  OK, big man, you have our attention.

On to 2022.

Binghamton - wildness persists, 14 walks in 17.1 IP, 1-1, 3.12, 11 H, 24 Ks, 3 saves.

Syracuse’s team pitching sucked, so nothing was holding him back, and so off to Syracuse he went.

In AAA, 30 games, 3.44, 34 innings, a still-high, but declining 24 BBs (and 6 HBP), 24 H, 56 Ks in 34 IP, including 47 Ks in his last 24 IP, a crazy rate.  

8 saves, and 11 of 14 in 2022, giving him a fine 17 of 20 in his career.  

44 total games in 2022 in the minors, 51 IP, and remarkably, no HRs allowed.

A closer look reveals he gave up 17 earned runs in 7 of his outings in 2022.  In the other 37 outings, he gave up just 2 earned runs.  My speculation is that coming up to AAA in 1 1/2 years of pro pitching, and 50 pro innings, is quite a leap for anyone, leading to a few rough outings - growing pains.  

But when he was good, he was VERY good.  In AAA, he had many dominating outings in just his second pro year pitching.  Few players pitch more than half a season in AAA in just their second year of pro pitching.

Then he had one bad inning in his few Mets September outings, still keeping in mind he  was in his second year, but fanned 6 in 3.1 innings of pitching, giving him 53 Ks in his last 27 innings pitched in 2022.

Sounds to me like a Top 30 prospect, I dunno about you.

Ask yourself this in another way. Do you REALLY think, after watching the Mets top 30 over the years have so many top 30 guys vaporize, that this guy, as I presented above, deserves to not be in the Top 30?  It honestly feels to me that half of the official Mets Top 30 prospects fizzle out before ever gracing a major league doorstep.  So why is BMDO not on it?

Now on to Dellin Betances.  

Dellin, a fellow giant like BMDO stature-wise, was shaky for years in the Yankees minors and ended up throwing 661 minor league innings, fanning 748, 4.23 ERA, 55 HBP, and 365 walks.  Similar to the similarly hard-throwing BMDO except far more Betances minors innings. 

In fact, in his 2nd to last minors season in 2012, DB was 6-9, 6.44, with 99 walks and just 124 Ks in 131 innings.  Awful.

But it clicked for him and as an often-dominating major leaguer, a 2.53 ERA in 394 IP, a stunning 633 Ks, and a much tamer 183 walks, while allowing just 240 hits and just 26 HRs.

Will BMDO be able to register a similar trajectory?

Moving on to Jeurys Familia: 

Minors debut at age 18, and in 2012 at age 22, 9-9, 4.73, 73 walks in 137 IP and just 128Ks.  Mediocre, huh?   

Fast-forward a few seasons to 2015 and 2016, though, and the 6'3", 240 reliever had 94 saves in those 2 seasons for the Mets, and in 156 innings, walked just 50 while fanning 170 and allowing just 7 HRs, with a 2 year ERA of 2.20. Awesome.

Will BMDO follow a similar trajectory?  Time will tell. I'd not be surprised.

Even recently departed 6'5" 240 (a bit, I dunno, small by comparison) Trevor May started out quite wild in the minors, but harnessed his skills into a solid major league reliever role with reasonably good control.

The above comparison is why I have very high hopes for BMDO, even in 2023 in Queens.  

Unlike the other 2, he rapidly climbed a long way in 2 years of pro pitching, starting out in Full A ball, not in lower A ball St Lucie, while spending over half his second year in 2022 in AAA. Why can't that quick upwards trajectory continue?  

And his 2 minors years represent a stronger body of work than that of either of the other 2 big boys.

Fangraphs, as I've noted a few times have estimated BMDO’s 2023. I have not looked in the past few weeks to see if any changes by them - when I looked, their estimates BMDO for 44 MLB innings in 2023, and a 3.57 ERA, with well over 11 Ks per 9, and only slightly more than a walk every two innings, which if achieved, would be a real solid 2023 performance.

Me?  I think those #s are achievable in 2023, and perhaps superior numbers to follow in 2024.

 I'd take another Betances or Familia out of Mr. BMDO, wouldn't you?

A little Twitter video clip:

https://twitter.com/pitchingninja/status/1568764874330718211

P.S. Lots of guys already in camp. Hungry. Motivated. Driven. Excited.