Mack's Mets

2/2/25

2025 Draft Prospect #93 - LHP - Landon Beidelschies - Arkansas

On 12-5-24, MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects in the upcoming draft. Beginning 2-2-25, we will post it in backward order, ending with the pick for 1.1

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/draft/ -

#93 - LHP - ~~Land~~on Beidelschies - Arkansas

20/years old 6' 3" 225

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

Beidelschies served as Ohio State's closer and earned Cape Cod League all-star honors as a freshman in 2023, then became the Buckeyes' No. 1 starter last spring. He transferred to Arkansas, joining one of the deepest pitching staffs in college baseball. The Razorbacks have five arms who could crack the top three rounds of the 2025 Draft, and he has the best combination of stuff and probability of pitching in a big league rotation.

After working at 91-94 mph and topping out at 98 with his fastball as a sophomore, Beidelschies operated in the mid-90s and got more swings-and-misses with armside run up in the zone during fall practice. His 83-85 mph slider has tremendous depth and destroys left-handers. He doesn't use his changeup much but it too has promise, operating in the mid-80s with fade and tumble when at its best.

Beidelschies has a strong 6-foot-3 frame and repeats his delivery, which features a short arm action. He provides strikes but needs to improve his command because his fastball gets hit and righties pound his slider when it catches too much of the plate. If he can maintain the velocity he showed in the fall and do a better job of locating his pitches, he would profile as a No. 3 or 4 starter.

1-22-25 –

Just Baseball: 2025 MLB Draft – Top 80 College Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-college-prospects/?s=03

65. Landon Beidelschies – LHP

HT/WT: 6’3/225 | Bat/Throw: L/L | School: Arkansas | Age: 21.3

After excelling as a true freshman at Ohio State, Beidelschies turned into one of the best starters in the Big Ten in 2024, striking out 91 batters in 84.2 innings.

A physical southpaw, Beidelschies works with a shorter arm swing and some deception. He relies heavily upon his fastball/slider combination, throwing both at an 89% clip in 2024.

The fastball can be explosive upstairs in the low-to-mid 90s, getting up to 98 MPH. It can get steep when pitching down in the zone, but there’s exceptional carry on the top rail, and will miss bats at a high clip.

The mid-80s slider is equally devastating when he’s on. It’s a firm breaker with lower spin, but fantastic bite and backfoot capabilities to righties.

He has feel for a firm mid-80s change-up that projects as average and a deeper curveball, but that’s used sparingly. There’s a need for more development in a third pitch to stave off relief risk. He was one of the most prized arms in the portal and will pitch for Arkansas in 2025.

https://ohiostatebuckeyes.com/sports/baseball/roster/landon-beidelschies/9935 -

Career Highlights

OSU Scholar Athlete (2023, 2024)

Academic All-Big Ten (2024)

ABCA/Rawlings NCAA Division I East All-Region Second Team (2024)

2024 (Sophomore)

Was the Buckeyes' Friday night starter, starting 15 games on the mound

Led the pitching staff in strikeouts with 91 in in 84.2 innings tossed

Finished the season with a 6-7 record and a 4.15 ERA

Recorded a career-high 12 strikeouts against West Virginia on March 15

On D1Baseball's Midseason Player Position Rankings list, was the 84th-best starting pitcher

Was a Preseason All-Big Ten selection

2023 (Freshman)

Made 24 appearances, including one start, on the mound in 2023

Led the Buckeye pitching staff in saves with seven

Fanned 45 batters in 30.1 innings pitched

Recorded a career-high four strikeouts at Cal State Bakersfield on March 12

Prior to Ohio State

In 2022, tossed three no-hitters and one perfect game

Finished the 2022 season with a 1.24 ERA, 87 strikeouts and held opponents to a .107 batting average

Also made appearances at the plate in 2022, batting .422 with two homeruns and 32 RBIs

Was the 2022 YSN Baseball MVP, Division II Player of the Year and an All-Ohio First Team selection

Throughout his career, also earned First Team All-AAC, AAC Player of the Year, First Team All-District, Prep Baseball Report (PBR) First Team All-State, PBR Co-Pitcher of the Year, YSN All-Star and Perfect Game Preseason Underclassman All-American honors

Was a PBR Elite 25 pitcher

Played summer ball for Team Ohio Pro Select, which was the 11th ranked team in the state of Ohio

https://www.swtimes.com/story/sports/college/sec/2024/06/24/arkansas-adds-to-pitching-depth-with-ohio-state-transfer-landon-beidelschies/74199563007/ -

Arkansas baseball received a commitment out of the transfer portal Monday night, with Ohio State left-handed pitcher Landon Beidelschies announcing his pledge to the Razorbacks on social media.

Beidelschies was the Buckeyes' Friday starter this spring, going 6-7 with a 4.15 ERA. He struck out 91 and walked just 31 batters in 84⅔ innings while holding opponents to a .231 batting average.

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2024/11/7/2025-mlb-draft-top-sec-prospects-part-2 -

LHP Landon Beidelschies - Arkansas

Prospects Live Ranking: #60

After an impressive freshman season as a reliever at Ohio State, Landon Beidelschies excelled for the Buckeyes in a starting role in 2024. In 15 starts on the mound, the lefty went 6-7 with a 4.15 ERA over 84.2 innings pitched while striking out 91 hitters. Beidelschies heavily relies on his fastball/slider combination, throwing them almost 90% of the time. The fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s and has occasionally reached upwards of 98 MPH. The mid-80s slider is firm with good bite. Both pitches generate a ton of whiffs. He also has a mid-80s change-up that’s rarely utilized. He’ll need to develop that third pitch and improve overall command to improve his draft stock. A successful year transferring into the SEC will also help, however.

https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/news/ohio-state-pitcher-announces-transfer-to-arkansas-01j16ebva731 -

In 2023, he had seven saves and an 0-2 record.

After only having one start in 24 appearances during the 2023 season mostly as a closer, Beidelschies took on a more consistent starting role this past season. He started all 15 of his appearances, posting a 6-7 record with a 4.15 ERA. In 84.2 innings pitched, he surrendered 71 total hits, 41 runs, 10 home runs and a .231 batting average.

Beidelschies joins an Arkansas team led by longtime coach Dave Van Horn that has had some impressive success during the regular season over the years despite a lack of production in the postseason. Excluding an 11-win season during the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, the Razorbacks have finished with at least 40 wins every year since 2017.

2025 Draft Prospect # 94 - RHP - Jack Lafflam - Brophy Prep (AZ)

On 12-5-24, MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects in the upcoming draft. Beginning 2-2-25, we will post it in backward order, ending with the pick for 1.1

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/draft/ -

#94 Jack Lafflam RHP, Brophy Prep (AZ)

18/yrs old 6' 6" 174

COMMITTED - Arizona

The best player to come out of Brophy Prep in Arizona was a tall right-handed pitcher, Ryan Castellani, a Rockies second-round pick in 2014 who touched the big leagues in 2020-2022. Lafflam gives the Phoenix area high school another big righty who could give the program its first draftee since 2016 after he showed off good stuff, feel and metrics on the summer showcase circuit, pitching at events like Perfect Game National, PG’s All-American Game, the Area Code Games and at USA Baseball’s 18U National Team Camp.

With a long, skinny 6-foot-6 frame, Lafflam gives off a Jack McDowell-like vibe. While his fastball typically sits at around 90-92 mph, he can dial it up to 95. It plays up because it has very good life to it, he throws it with good extension and his cross-fire delivery makes it hard to pick up, so it misses a fair amount of bats. He has both a slider and a curve, and the former is the better offering with more consistent shape, and both breakers are typically thrown in the upper 70s. He has a solid changeup, selling the 78-80 mph cambio well.

Lafflam tends to be very consistent in finding the strike zone despite his unorthodox delivery, and teams that value analytics will likely appreciate his high spin rates, extension and how far down the mound he gets. There might be some concern about his really narrow frame and if he’ll be able to add strength, but the starting pitcher kit he has should intrigue teams in considering the Arizona recruit in the first few rounds.

1-27-25 - Just Baseball –

2025 MLB Draft - Top 80 High School Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-high-school-prep-prospects/

1-27-25 - Just Baseball –

2025 MLB Draft - Top 80 High School Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-high-school-prep-prospects/

75. Jack Lafflam – RHP

HT/WT: 6’6/180 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Brophy College Preparatory (AZ) | Commitment: Arizona | Age: 18.9

Lafflam is one of the most projectable arms in the entire country. At 6’6, 180 pounds, his body is really skinny and lanky, which reminds scouts of Triston McKenzie’s current frame.

He’s an uber-athletic specimen on the bump with an interesting crossfire delivery, though there’s work to be done with his repetition. This has led to his command being lackluster, but his stuff has everyone intrigued.

The fastball shape is a bit generic, acting more like a cutter from a wider release, though Lafflam holds low-90s well and has ventured into the 95+ MPH bucket on a couple of occasions.

Given the projection, he should be sitting in the mid-90s in due time. Lafflam has two breaking balls in his arsenal, though they can blend together.

The low-80s slider projects better than the upper-70s curveball, featuring impressive spin rates and tons of sweeping action across the plate.

His final pitch, a mid-80s cambio, features heavy sink and run, though he’s still learning the feel of the pitch. As he grows, the expectation is that Lafflam’s body control and command should take a step forward.

Lafflam plans on staying in-state and attending Arizona if he goes unselected.

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=786436 –

2024 National Showcase

Jack Lafflam is a 2025 RHP/1B with a 6-6 175 lb. frame from Scottsdale, AZ who attends Brophy College Prep. Long and lean athletic build with huge physical projection remaining. Full hand over head delivery, loose and athletic actions in his mechanics, fast and loose arm to a 3/4's arm slot. Fastball topped out at 95 mph with lots more there, will cut fastball at times. Threw a sweeping slider as his breaking ball with up to 15" of IHB. Change up had two-seam action at times with even bigger life at times. Three potential plus pitches with command and the projection to get better across the board. Very high ceiling talent. Good student, verbal commitment. to Arizona. Selected to play in the Perfect Game All-American Classic.

https://www.brophyprep.org/news-detail?pk=1356664 –

Brophy senior pitcher Jack Lafflam has committed to playing and attending the University of Arizona in the fall.

“I am excited about the development side of the program and playing at the next level,” said Lafflam, who originally made his verbal commitment on Sept. 22, 2022. “Coach Vance and Coach DeRouin have transformed their pitching program. They are one of three college teams using the new pitching technology. I am looking forward to it.”

Laffam will play for Head Coach Chip Hale, an Arizona alum and former Major League Baseball player and manager with the Diamondbacks.

“The coaches were the main reason behind my decision,” said Lafflam. “Chip Hale is a great guy and, talking to the players, they love to play for him. Many of my family have attended the U of A, and I have always been a fan.”

Lafflam went 5-0 on the season in 2024 with a 1.50 ERA over nine starts.

“We were competing,” recalled Lafflam of the team's success last season. “We won a lot, but they were close games a lot. Competing to the last out with that group was fun and bonding. We overcame a lot of adversity, but we did it together. It was a good year.”

He was an All-Premier first-team selection and AzBCA and AIA 6A Conference second-team all-state choice.

2025 Draft Prospect # 95 - OF - Angel Laya - Eastlake (CA)

On 12-5-24, MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects in the upcoming draft. Beginning 2-2-25, we will post it in backward order, ending with the pick for 1.1

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/draft/ -

# 95 Angel Laya OF, Eastlake (CA)

18/yrs old LHH 6' 3" 190

COMMITTED - Oregon

Eastlake High School in California has had three first-round picks and five total selections in the top three rounds over the years, most notably Adrián González, the No. 1 overall pick in 2000, and Marcelo Mayer, who went No. 4 overall in 2021. Laya doesn’t fit into that kind of top of the first round conversation, but the projectable tools he showcased at Perfect Game National and the Area Code Games will assuredly have scouts pouring into Eastlake once again.

All of Laya’s tools come with considerable ceiling. He’s a big, strong outfielder with a pretty left-handed swing that can do some damage. He has some feel for the strike zone and flashes some approach, though that part of his game is a bit raw. As he refines his feel for hitting, that should allow him to tap into his considerable raw power, something some scouts feel will be plus in the future with outstanding bat speed.

Laya is athletic with a little speed and has recorded some excellent run times in the past, but he appears to be slowing down a bit as he adds strength. It probably means he’s best suited for an outfield corner, but the power potential and his plus arm should profile just fine there. If the Oregon recruit shows the ability to tap into his tools consistently in the spring, he’ll move up this list.

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=714041 –

2024 National Showcase

Angel Laya is a 2025 OF/2B with a 6-3 190 lb. frame from San Diego, CA who attends Eastlake. Big and strong athletic build. Left handed hitter, hits from a spread and balanced base, has a smooth and easy swing, looking to pull the ball but is able to stay behind it and drive it hard the other way as well, stays well timed, projects well as a hitter. 6.77 runner in the sixty. Primary outfielder on defense, has easy athleticism through the ball and shows good pace and body control through the ball, makes accurate throws with nice carry, should be a plus defensively. Good student, verbal commitment to Oregon.

2025 Draft Prospect #96 - 3B - Justice de Jong - Poly Prep (NY)

On 12-5-24, MLB.com posted their top 100 prospects in the upcoming draft. Beginning 2-2-25, we will post it in backward order, ending with the pick for 1.1

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2025/draft/ -

#96 Justice de Jong RHP, Poly Prep (NY)

17/yrs old 6' 3" 210

COMMITTED - Duke

Poly Prep in Brooklyn is going to be busy once things warm up this spring, with two intriguing Draft prospects for evaluators to check out, and both likely have futures on the mound. Miguel Sime Jr. brings power as a pitcher only, while de Jong has legitimate two-way talent, though scouts prefer his now stuff and projection on the mound after seeing him pitch well against premium talent on the summer showcase circuit.

At 6-foot-3, de Jong fits the description of the prototypical high school right-hander with a ton of upside, especially when considering he’s yet to focus solely on pitching. He has the chance to have three at least above-average pitches when all is said and done, starting with a fastball that’s up to 96 mph with life and more in the tank to come. He has a hard downer curve that could be a true out pitch, and he also has a quick, late slider in his arsenal. He can also throw his changeup for strikes with excellent deception and will throw it at any time. He can find the strike zone with all of his offerings.

Should de Jong go on to Duke, he’d likely get the chance to keep playing both ways, with plenty of power in his right-handed swing. He’s a hard worker with plus makeup, so it’s not difficult to envision what he could become, with No. 2 starter type of a ceiling, should he start his pro career and put the bat aside.

1-27-25 - Just Baseball –

2025 MLB Draft - Top 80 High School Prospects
https://www.justbaseball.com/college/mlb-draft-top-high-scool-prep-prospects/
37. Justice de Jong – RHP

HT/WT: 6’3/215 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Poly Prep Country Day (NY) | Commitment: Duke | Age: 17.11

Another two-way talent in this class, de Jong is a lanky, physical specimen that many prefer as an arm. He controls his body well and moves fluidly down the mound, requiring little to no effort in his delivery. There’s good arm speed and pitchability in his profile, plus he fills up the strike zone with all three of his pitches.

The heater is more of a dead-zone shape and doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he sits in the 92-94 MPH bucket consistently and has crept into the mid-90s in shorter stints this summer. He’s likely a sinker guy at the next level, though his deception helps it play up a bit.

His upper-70s curveball can get a bit slurvy, but it’s a true sweeper with up to 15+ inches of horizontal movement and good depth. It tunnels off the heater well and breaks sharply away from righties.

The change-up is a viable weapon to lefties with firm shape, too. If scouts prefer the bat, it’s potentially big right-handed pop with bat speed and leverage, though there’s swing-and-miss to his profile. De Jong won’t turn 18 until after the draft, which helps him become more of a model-friendly prospect. He’d be eligible as a junior in 2028 out of Duke if he goes to campus.

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=728491 –

2024 National Showcase

Justice de Jong is a 2025 3B/RHP/1B with a 6-3 210 lb. frame from New York, NY who attends Poly Prep Country Day. Big and strong young build. Primary third baseman on defense but graded out higher at this event as a pitcher. Right handed hitter, sets up in a wide and slightly open base, small hand drop load, rotational upper body swing, has bat speed and strength and can impact the ball, power really projects when he learns to extend better through contact, 106 EV in batting practice, best when he's turning the barrel over. Step by step actions on defense, clean glove work, still learning his footwork, plenty of arm strength. Has a full arm stroke on the mound and a high 3/4's arm slot. Fastball was up to 95 mph with up to 18" of IVB. Curveball was an outstanding pitch with 20" of horizontal life and nice late sharpness, also threw a quality change up while over matching some very good hitters. Extremely young for the 2025 class which adds to his projection, especially on the mound. Excellent student, verbal commitment to Duke.

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/PBR/aag-spotlight--justice-de-jong--ny--2025- -

DeJong, a Duke recruit, was a standout late in the summer on the national scene where his two-way prowess applied pressure from all angles. The sturdy and athletic, 6-foot-3, 205-pound right-hander who will not turn 18 until after the Draft shows some power potential at the plate, but it is his polish and poise, along with big arm strength on the mound, that stand out most. Equipped with an advanced arsenal that includes sharp spin, de Jong has a chance to make even bigger jumps in coming months, especially given his hard-working and competitive mentality.

MACK - MY Sunday Observations

Good morning.

The Mets signed 2B/3B Nick Madrigal to a one-year contract

$1.35M with a chance at $500K in performance bonuses

9.4% career K rate

One MiLB option year remaining

8-DRS (defensive runs saved) and an OAA of +7 at 3B in his career. Possible late inning replacement for Mark Vientos

I wasn’t sure I was even going to report this one. The last thing I expected the Mets to be spending late money on is another utility infielder. This screams to me that Ronny Mauricio will probably not be ready, and Jeff McNeil may be reassigned to left during the period that Brandon Nimmo still needs to speed up. Just guessing, but at least one of these is probably a good guess.

The fan thingy happened on 1-25 and the comments and videos of Mets players were all over X.

I walked away with two distinct points:

SNY Mets @SNY_Mets

Carlos Mendoza says Luisangel Acuña will have a "huge role" on the

2025 Mets

Keane @kranepool

David Stearns mentioned that Kodai Senga is healthy and ready to go, in fact Jeremy Heffner is in Japan working with him

First of all, you would never say either of these things if they weren’t true.

Acuna playing a “huge role” means he will not be sent back to Syracuse. Because of roster restrictions, this pretty much puts a lid on a Candelita return this spring. Does he start at second? Will he be the super infield utility guy? Details to follow, but he will be around.

As for Senga, again, you don’t say somebody is healthy only to find that person coming to camp on crutches. I still believe he has a lot to prove before we should all call him the Mets ace, but a healthy Senga is going to make it a lot easier to put together a winning rotation.

My predictions as to which team will open up with the Mets top prospects:

AAA – Syracuse: Brandon Sproat. Ryan Clifford, Jett Williams, Brett Baty, Drew Gilbert

AA – Binghamton: Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Douglas Orellana, Christopher Suero, Jesus Baez, Nick Morabito

A+ - Brooklyn: Jack Wenninger, Eli Alkeney, Ronald Hernandez, Boston Baro, Carson Benge

A – St. Lucie: Daiverson Guiterrez, Nick Roselli, Jeremy Rodriguez, Yonstan Henriquez, Simon Juan, Willy Fanas, Jeffry Rosa

Rookie – FCL Mets: Yovanny Rodriguez, Christopher Larez, Edward Lantigua

Rookie – DSL Mets: Elian Pena

Mets Relief Pen

The return of Ryne Stanick may have put the lid on the 2025 pen staff. The Mets will be paying him $4.5mil for one season.

Complete 2024: -0.6-WAR, 7-3, 4.88

Mets 2024: -0.2-WAR, 1-0, 6.06

2024 Playoffs: 3.38-ERA, 7-apps,

Final 12 2024 apps: 2.92-ERA

Thomas Nestico @TJStats

Ryne Stanek (signed by NYM) is a stuff monster with an electric fastball and wicked splitter. He is extremely productive at generating whiffs in the zone but his effectiveness is hampered by his command issues

Stanek, Edwin Diaz, A.J. Minter, Dedniel Nunez, and Jose Butto are keepers in my 2025 pen. That’s five. Need eight.

Reed Garrett, Sean Reid-Foley, Huascar Brazoban, Tyler Zuber and Max Kranick will compete this spring for the two opening day slots in the pen.

Is this now a great pen? I wouldn’t say that. What it will say it is now one of the top 15 pens in the game. Great accomplishment by David Stearns after starting off this off-season so naked out there.

1-28-25 –

Keith Law’s Three Top Mets Prospects –

RHP Brandon Sproat

“He works heavily off a four-seamer that’s been up to 99-100 and sits 96-97, while his best pitch is a slider that’s above-average to plus depending on the day; he’ll throw a decent change, a curve and a two-seamer as well,” Law wrote. “It’ll always be control over command, as he’s so aggressive that it’s hard to foresee him ever toning it down enough to be precise with his locations.

“He’ll have to do a little bit of refinement to make the last leap to the majors, as hitters will hit your stuff, no matter how good it is, if you put it on a tee for them. He has some similarities to Edwin Jackson, a huge stuff guy who was more of a No. 4 starter for most of his career, although I think Sproat has better control than Jackson did at the same age.”

IF/OF Jett Williams

“It’s a compact swing combined with very good ball/strike awareness, and he could be a high-average/high-OBP second baseman with 55-60 defense, which would make him a solid or better regular,” Law wrote. “His 2024 season was just a lost year, and while he can’t get those at-bats back, it’s also possible that we’ll have to just disregard what he did do when he played because he wasn’t 100 percent.”

IF Ronny Mauricio

“He’s just way too aggressive at the plate, chasing off-speed stuff out of the zone at a rate that’s not going to be sustainable for a major-league regular – which is why the loss of a year-plus of plate appearances was so damaging for him, as he needs to work on ball/strike and pitch recognition, and the best way to do that is by playing,” Law wrote.

“I’ve said before he reminds me a ton of Alfonso Soriano, who had similarly electric wrists, never figured out shortstop, and wasn’t anything close to ‘patient’ at the plate, but improved his approach enough to hit 412 homers and play 16 years in the majors. That’s a best-case scenario for Mauricio, and probably more unlikely after the injury.”

1-29-25 –

Just Baseball - Top 10 Third Basemen in Major League Baseball for 2025

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/top-10-third-basemen-in-major-league-baseball-for-2025/

9. Mark Vientos, New York Mets

2024 Stats: 111 G, .266/.322/.516, 27 HR, 71 RBI, 133 wRC+, 2.9 fWAR

Staying on the topic of projectable young talent, Mark Vientos may just he the third baseman the Mets have been looking for for years now.

After a 68 wRC+ season in 233 plate appearances in 2023, followed by a start to the 2024 season in Triple-A Syracuse, Vientos defied all expectations when he got the call in 2024 and became one of New York’s best offensive pieces.

Of all Mets hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, Vientos’ 2.9 fWAR, 133 wRC+ and .837 OPS were second to only NL MVP runner-up Francisco Lindor, while his 27 HR were the third best tally, trailing Lindor and Pete Alonso.

Among MLB third baseman (under the same 400 PA parameter), he ranked third in wRC+ and OPS and showed off the power abilities with a second ranked SLG.

He’ll look to complete his first full season in 2025 and build of a stellar 2024 regular season and an unbelievably clutch postseason, where he belted five homers in 13 games and posted a 178 wRC+.

And you want to make this guy a first baseman now?

1-29-25 –

Daniel Wexler @WexlerRules

Baseball America names Jonathan Santucci as Mets sleeper prospect for 2025.

A sleeper prospect is one that didn’t make an organization’s top 10 and was not one of their “breakout” prospect picks for a team

4 Mets make ESPN’s top 100 prospects

#34 Jett Williams

#62 Brandon Sproat

#67 Ronny Mauricio

#84 Drew Gilbert

1-28-25 –

Will Francisco Alvarez Become the Slugger the Mets Dreamed Of?

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb/francisco-alvarez-breakout-become-great-hitter-mets-imagined-2025/

According to FanGraphs WAR, New York Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez has been a top-10 backstop in the sport over the past two seasons. He has produced 4.9 fWAR in 223 games. Yet, he has barely scratched the surface of his monstrous potential.

Alvarez has provided the majority of his value behind the plate. Specifically, he has demonstrated an aptitude for stealing strikes. The metrics at FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Prospectus all agree he’s been one of the more valuable pitch framers in the league.

Framing is one of the most valuable (and most overlooked) skills in the modern game. Just look at Giants catcher Patrick Bailey.

Just Baseball recently ranked Bailey number five on our list of the top 10 catchers in baseball despite his career .640 OPS and 79 wRC+. Why? Because he’s miles ahead of every other backstop when it comes to earning extra strikes.

Alvarez isn’t quite on Bailey’s level, but thanks to his excellent framing, FanGraphs ranks him as the 12th most valuable defensive player at any position over the past two years. That’s remarkable progress for a young player who wasn’t often considered a plus defender during his prospect days.

Boy… everybody seems to be getting on the Alvy train.

1-25-25 –

Ben Weaver @weaver_cards

Jonah Tong, 21 y/o, NYM, RHP, #17 in system

Split time between A, A+, AA

K% - 34.2%

BB% - 10%

GB% - 45.2%

IP - 113

++ FB and CB

Seems Jonah continues to impress this spring in camp. I’m tellin’ ya… watch for this kid to move fast through the chain this season

Jim Koenigsberger @Jimfrombaseball

“Barry Bonds? I’ll tell you what, if Bonds hit a home run off Bob Gibson or Don Drysdale and stood and admired it, they’d knock that earring out of his ear the next time up.”

National League Umpire Doug Harvey

Billy Wagner was just voted to the Hall. He pitched in 903 innings in his career, over 16 big league seasons.

And Billy Wagner was a right hander until he injured his arm, severely. So, he taught himself to pitch left handed and became a Hall of Famer.

2/1/25

Tom Brennan: You Know What February Means

CASEY KNEW

February means….

Pitchers and catchers.

Intrasquad games.

Watching top 30 prospects.

And watching spring training games.

We have survived, to get psyched about February…

…and the return of Mets action.

MACK - More Draft Shite

Just Means Less ACC @FQACC

FSU Baseball Player to Watch:

LHP Jacob Marlowe

Marlowe missed all of 2024 after multiple heart surgeries and wasn't able to pitch until the summer up in the Cape. He shined for the Brewster Caps, while boasting a 2.95 ERA.

The southpaw features a low 90s FB and a really good

CodBall @codball

Charlotte transfer RHP Blake Gillespie will head to Cotuit Kettleers this summer. Gillespie played 2 years at Georgia. He had a terrific summer with Goridge Runners of Appy League working 23.2 inn., with a 0.76 ERA, 23 K, just 2 BB.

Ian Smith @IanSmittyGA

Grad transfer C Nathan Waugh caught some loud barrels this afternoon for Georgia Tech.

2B to LCF at 98, and this backside HR at 101 EV, 392ft to RCF

6-foot-5, 230-pounds. Career .947 OPS with 18 and HR can provide some quality depth for the Jackets this spring.

Last time I saw Charlie Willcox @WillcoxCha2025, the @GTBaseball commit generated 20+ whiffs in a dominant outing.

“Ivisiball” FB up to 94 in the fall with more in the tank.

Power CB at 78-80 and mid-80s CH that miss bats as well.

Peter Flaherty III @PeterGFlaherty

IF Dixon Williams - ECU Baseball - is one Carolinas player to watch this spring. After logging just 12 ABs as a Freshman, Williams enjoyed a breakout Sophomore year to the tune of a .308/.406/.490 slash line with 11 2B, 9 HR and 43 RBIs. Carried that momentum into the summer where he tore up the NECBL and hit .390/.500/.580 with 7 2B, 4 HR, 33 RBIs, 17 SB and more BB (22) than Ks (15). Was named the league's MVP and Top Pro Prospect.

Williams has an athletic frame with present strength at 6'2" and 210-lbs. Made an adjustment to his stance between this spring and summer. Lowered his hands, more crouched and sits deeper in his base, and has a slightly more open front side. Very simple and under control operation with minimal moving parts. Small load in which his hands drift slightly, ultra-small stride. Like his lower-half. Head stays still, easy bat speed. Swing path is now geared more towards getting the ball up in the air and doing damage.

Williams has plus bat-to-ball skills, and last spring worked an 88% overall IZ contact rate, including 93% against FB. This summer, he boasted a 91% overall IZ contact rate (93% against FB, 96% against SL). Present barrel skills. Swing decisions and approach are both sound, though there's some miss/chase against secondaries down (cambios are his biggest Achilles heel). Does a nice job of staying within the zone for the most part. Will use the whole field, though his highest quality of contact comes to the pull side. 55 hit for me.

He tallied 9 HRs and posted a Max EV of 107.8 last spring, though I'm excited to see what Williams' power output looks like this season with his refined operation. Didn't get the ball up in the air a ton during the spring and his AirPull% was just 23.3%, but this summer his FB+LD% increased from 48% to 54%. Fly ball% alone increased from 26% to 34%. His power as a whole grades out as average, though you could make the argument that it's a 55 to the pull-side.

The biggest question mark in Williams' profile is his defense and where he profiles best long term. He's an excellent athlete and is in line to man SS this spring for ECU, but I think right now the actions and especially arm profile best on the right side of the IF at 2B. Curious to see what he looks like in his first real action at SS. Williams runs well once underway and is an effective base stealer. Top-5 round upside in this year's Draft.

Anthony Dasher @AnthonyDasher1

Some Georgia baseball news. It appears Dylan Goldstein could be part of the team once again. He’s already enrolled and has been working out with the Bulldogs. It’s believed the graduate transfer for the Bulldogs in 2024 would be taking advantage of the new NCAA waiver that extends an extra year of eligibility to student-athletes “who previously competed at a non-NCAA (JUCO) school for one or more years to remain eligible and compete in 2025-26.” Goldstein hit 291 with 12 homers and 39 RBI last year for Georgia, and if his eligibility becomes official would give Wes Johnson another quality left-handed bat.

On The Clock | College Baseball and MLB Draft Pod @OnTheClock_1

No. 3 - RHP Tyler Bremner, UC Santa Barbara

The best mid-major arm in this class, Bremner has a legitimate shot at being the first arm off the board thanks to fantastic athleticism, starter traits, and exceptionally loud stuff.

Aria Gerson @aria_gerson

RJ Austin is back at 100% after dealing with a shoulder issue during the fall, Tim Corbin said

Jacob Rudner @JacobRudner

Important news from Nashville. RJ Austin hit .335 with five home runs, 14 doubles, two triples and 28 stolen bases (33 attempts) last year. He’s a top-75 draft prospect.

Ian Smith @IanSmittyGA

OF Parker Brosius made big strides in a near everyday role in ‘24, slashing .298/.442/.430 w/ an impressive chase rate and encouraging 90th and Max EVs.

Plus speed in the 6-foot-1, 195-pound frame w/ an all-fields approach.

The GT Baseball junior has potential to play across the OF as well, and could be in-store for a big spring.

Potential for mid-round upside this summer.

On The Clock | College Baseball and MLB Draft Pod

@OnTheClock_1

No. 4 - OF Cam Cannarella - Clemson

A roadblock in the Clemson infield gave him an opportunity in center field that he has not relinquished. A gamer in every sense of the word, Cannarella is a dangerous hitter with some of the best contact skills in the entire country.

No. 5 SS Aiva Arquette, Oregon State

Arquette's feel to consistently backspin the baseball to all fields is impressive and the overall power profile is robust, recording an average exit velocity of 93 MPH with a maximum of 112.9 MPH.

Baseball America

Player To Know

Virginia’s lineup is well stocked with players to keep an eye on this year, especially from an draft standpoint, but it’s hard not to focus on two-way player Chris Arroyo considering his potential impact on his new team. A transfer from Pasco-Hernando State College, Arroyo began his college career as a reliever at Florida in 2023 before putting together an explosive 2024 campaign on both sides of the ball at the junior college level, where he batted .403 with 60 runs, 10 doubles, 19 home runs, 52 RBIs and nine stolen bases while pitching his way to a 3.53 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 62.2 innings. O’Connor told Baseball America that he expected Arroyo to be featured in the heart of his team’s batting order, as well as in its rotation.

Player To Know

A fringe top 100 prospect coming out of Honolulu (Hi.) St. Louis High School in 2022, Aiva Arquette opted to honor his commitment to Washington, where he hit .311 with 17 home runs, 14 doubles, 47 RBIs and nine stolen bases in 63 games across two seasons. The 6-foot-4 infielder entered the transfer portal after former Washington head coach Jason Kelly took the pitching coach job at Texas A&M and landed at Oregon State, where he now enters the year ranked No. 19 among 2025 draft prospects. The Beavers will rely on Arquette to anchor the heart of the batting order, especially with Bazzana no longer in the mix.

Player To Know

If not the frontrunner, Jace LaViolette is among the favorites to be selected with the first overall pick in the 2025 draft and is easily the Aggies’ most important player heading into the season. The 6-foot-6, 230-pound slugger produced an impressive 108.8 90th percentile exit velocity and limited his chase rate to just 17.2 percent as a sophomore in 2024 when he slashed .305/.449/.726 with 29 home runs, 78 RBIs and 64 walks against 81 strikeouts. LaViolette generates impressive impact and has double-plus raw power to all fields, which he gets to with ease in games. The Texas A&M center fielder should contend for this year’s Golden Spikes Award, which recognizes the nation’s top amateur baseball player.

Player To Know

One of the most sought-after transfer portal entrants this offseason, infielder Daniel Dickinson posted a career year as a sophomore at Utay Valley, hitting .367/.469/.661 with 14 doubles, 18 home runs, 53 RBIs and 32 stolen bases in 58 games, which earned him first-team all-WAC and third-team all-American honors. Johnson lauded his prized recruit for his measured hitting approach and maturity. Johnson described Dickinson as a “throwback-type” player capable of “making the guys around him play better.” The Tigers are hopeful that Dickinson can fill in a much-needed leadership role after they lost multiple upperclassmen to the pros.

Just Means Less ACC @FQACC

BC Hitter to Watch: Josiah Ragsdale

Iona transfer Josiah Ragsdale looks to be the perfect center fielder and lead off man for Coach Interdonato's style. The 6'0" junior hit .385 for Iona last season while amassing 28 extra base hits and stealing 22 bags.

Ragsdale will set the table for an underrated lineup that includes a very experienced and capable infield and fellow outfielders Jack Toomey, and sophomore breakout candidate Adam Magpoc.

Joe Doyle @JoeDoyleMiLB

I'm all over Seton Hall RHP Ryan Reich for the 2025 Draft. He raised his arm slot 6" in 2024 to get to a bit more velo but is still launching from a 65" RelZ. He also consistently generates north of 20" of IVB and cuts the shit out of it. The result is a zone-neutralized VAA of -4.0°.

Reich is still only touching 93, but there's some arm speed here and it wouldn't surprise me if there's another tick or two in the tank. The fastball is devastating at or above the letters. He generated a 39% whiff rate on the elevated fastball in 2024, however the whiff rate jumped to 58% at 90+ mph. Obnoxious numbers for a pitch that never brushed 94. He threw the heater 65% of the time. Didn't matter.

Reich is either going to need to firm up his slider or generate much more lateral action if it's going to be a legitimate offering at the next level. It sat in the upper-70s last season with two-plane break, but it didn't fool the opposition out of the hand. He's got feel for landing spin in the zone, so there are building blocks. There are a couple different routes he can go with his wrist orientation and release profile. Will be interesting to see which he's more comfortable with.

Reich only threw his changeup something like six percent of the time last season. It often showed more screwball traits than it did traditional changeup shape. It was actually quite effective when he could get the opposition to offer at it (35% swing rate).

Across 70.1 IP last year, Reich punched 89 tickets and walked just 36 hitters. He only surrendered 56 hits. He's trending in the right direction. If the breaking ball takes a step this year, don't be surprised to hear Reich's name called in the 4-6 round range.

Intersquads underway for most colleges at this point. Oregon State 3B Trent Caraway looking leaner this year but the bat speed hasn’t gone anywhere. Pull-side bomb here. Went 5 for 5 this weekend. Hit a ball 110 mph too. Certainly a name in play for the first round.

Keep an eye on Alabama RHP Riley Quick. He’ll be ready for Opening Day after undergoing Tommy John surgery just 11 months ago. Impressive recovery. Up to 99 w/huge sink. Slider was firm + effective when he got to it in 2023

I had Jonah Williams ranked as my No. 169 prospect in the 2025 Draft before he enrolled early. He’s up to 95 these days with a budding changeup. Very talented arm.

Don’t be surprised if he carves out a role in the OF in due time. Tools w/the bat are raw, but explosive

Reese Kaplan -- A Prediction For the End of the Alonso Saga

Most of us as fans and/or writers are facing a bad case of Alonso Agita over the constant hashing, rehashing and re-rehashing of the negotiation saga between the New York Mets and their now former first baseman. Let’s have a look at the pattern of what has happened that brought us to where we are today.

Back in the summer of 2023 the then General Manager Billy Eppler put together a seven year contract offer to retain Pete Alonso. The total investment would be $158 million which averaged out to $22.5 million per year. At the time Alonso was playing for a $14.5 million annual paycheck, so that jump of more than 50% in pay seemed like a reasonable number. Alonso and his then agent felt that the total was too low.

At the end of the season Alonso hired Scott Boras as his new negotiating representative as he prepared to enter his final season under Mets control initially must have filled the team with a bit of trepidation. After all, Boras was responsible for a great many inflated contracts above and beyond what baseball pundits felt was equitable value for what each of those players could deliver.

Also happening at that time was the Mets making the decision to hire David Stearns as its new President of Baseball Operations who also was going to serve as GM. Billy Eppler was now gone and Stearns’ first major financial decision to make was what to do with pending free agent Alonso.

Now if we can believe the sources who have cited numbers, the Mets under Stearns took a very different approach. They proposed a three year deal with a single opt out for $90 million. That average rate of $30 million per year was quite a bit higher than what Eppler had proposed but at the same time it was buying theoretically Alonso’s last set of highly productive years as he would be approaching age 34 when that contract ended. With Scott Boras whispering in his ear, that deal was also turned down.

That brings us to the more-or-less present day situation where David Stearns pretty much showed who was in charge of this deal. He read the market, saw that no other team was making any significant effort to lure Alonso onto their roster, so instead of going up in AAV or years, he held true to the three year proposal. However, in recognition of the cold market for Alonso’s services he added another option year but lowered the rate to a total value of $70 million which works out to $23.3 million per season. At his 2024 pay rate of $20.5 million it would represent more than a 10% increase in rate after two down seasons.

Now sit back for a moment and consider what all has happened. The long term and high AAV contract preached by Boras to his clients including not just Alonso but also Alex Bregman, J.D. Martinez and many others still on the unemployment roles. He did land that record contract for Juan Soto but perhaps it came at the cost of lack of focus and energy for the many other clients he represents.

Rumor abounds that once Alonso signs a new contract which (also rumor) will be a return to the Mets he will fire Scott Boras for having sold him a fanciful bill of goods regarding his worth and the non-existent competition for his power hitting services.

For now, we have losers on all sides. The Mets have no first baseman, having thus far lost 40 home runs and 100 RBIs as an annual part of their offensive attack. Alonso has no job and Spring Training begins in less than two weeks. Scott Boras has earned no commission since no contract has been signed. David Stearns seems to be playing this negotiation properly given the various circumstances.

As a prediction, I think the Mets will come to an agreement with Pete Alonso at a higher value than what was previously offered but instead of being a multiyear deal with options it will instead be for a single year which tides over the team during his second free agent season while limiting the long term financial hit.

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