MACK - SUNDAY OBSERVATIONS - MACK'S #17 PROSPECT/SP JOEL DIAZ - Colin Pouch, A.J. Ewing, Blame For 2025, MacKenzie Gore, Bo Bichette, A.J. Ewing, Soto, Euniel, Bullpens, Vern Rapp

 

I promised all of you that, as soon as the season ended, I would breakout and post my current Top 30 prospects.

This is performance based, not players that came to the Mets full of promise but have only produced butterscotch pudding. A perfect example of a player that didn’t make this list is catcher Ronald Hernandez. I still like the guy, but based on what he did in 2025, I don’t like him “top 30 guy”.

Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong are not on this list. They have graduated.

I will post them in each of my weekly Observations and In Focus posts… one player at a time… beginning with #30.

Today, we move to #17:

                           17.       SP             Joel Diaz 

22/yrs old in February      6-2      208         RHSP 

2025:     A+ -  25-G, 18-ST, 5-5, 3.80, 1.22. 106.2-IP, 25-BB, 98-K

Díaz is a right-handed starting pitcher in the New York Mets' minor league system, born February 26, 2004, in San Cristobal, Dominican Republic. At 6'2" and 208 pounds, he has a solid, athletic frame with potential for further physical development. Signed by the Mets as an international free agent on January 15, 2021, Díaz has shown promise as a prospect despite inconsistent results as he progresses through the minors. 

Career Overview -     2021 (Dominican Summer League): Díaz had an outstanding professional debut at age 17, posting a 0.54 ERA over 50.1 innings with 63 strikeouts, 9 walks, and a .163 opponent batting average. His performance marked him as a high-upside prospect. 

2022 (Low-A St. Lucie):       Moving stateside, Díaz struggled at 18, recording a 5.86 ERA in 55.1 innings with 51 strikeouts and 25 walks. As one of the youngest pitchers at the level, his control issues were evident, but his underlying pitch data remained promising. 

2025 (High-A Brooklyn):          Díaz had a solid season with the Brooklyn Cyclones, throwing 106.2 innings, primarily as a starter, with a 3.80 ERA. He excelled in the playoffs, pitching 6.2 scoreless innings with 2 hits, 2 walks, and 2 strikeouts, helping Brooklyn reach the South Atlantic League Championship Series. His ability to generate soft contact was notable, though his strikeout rate (8.27 K/9) was modest. 

Pitching Repertoire 

Díaz throws from a three-quarters arm slot with a short-arm delivery and a low release point, which aids in creating deception. His current arsenal includes four pitches: 

Four-Seam Fastball:        Ranges from 92-96 mph, averaging 94 mph, with peaks up to 97 mph. It features riding life due to a low vertical approach angle, making it difficult for hitters to square up (average exit velocity of 71.1 mph in 2022). The pitch generates swing-and-miss and has been a cornerstone of his arsenal. 

Sinker:                  Used less frequently but part of his mix, it complements his four-seamer by inducing ground balls. Specific metrics on its effectiveness are limited, but it adds versatility to his fastball offerings.

 Changeup:          Considered his best secondary pitch, it flashes above-average to plus potential with late fade. In his DSL debut, he threw it 20% of the time, using it effectively to keep hitters off balance. Its development has been a positive sign for his future as a starter. 

Curveball:           A high-70s offering that he introduces later in games, typically the second time through the order. Its effectiveness has been inconsistent, with control issues leading him to favor his changeup when the curve isn’t working. 

Scouting Notes 

Strengths:           Díaz’s athleticism, strike-throwing ability, and feel for secondary pitches (especially the changeup) stand out for his age. His fastball’s life and low release point generate weak contact, and his 2021 DSL performance showcased his potential as a high-ceiling arm.

 Weaknesses:     Control has been an issue in full-season ball, with a walk rate over 10% in 2022. His curveball needs refinement to become a reliable weapon, and his strikeout numbers have dipped against more advanced hitters. 

Projection:          Díaz is a high-risk, high-reward prospect due to his youth and distance from the majors. His 2025 performance suggests he’s adapting to higher levels, but he’ll need to improve command and secondary pitch consistency to reach his potential as a mid-rotation starter or high-leverage reliever.

                MACK –               

I REALLY like this kid. Don’t know why. Just do. I don’t see him someday becoming a starter for the Mets. No, I see the lab getting his arm under control and age will develop him a few more ticks on his velo… then… on to the back end of the pen. 

                ETA:       2028

Forgotten Ex-2025 Mets

LINK

Colin Pouch

Every rock was turned over this season for left-handed relief help. Several doses of Richard Lovelady poured down our throats, Colin Poche deserves the award for being the worst one. Yeah, it was just one game. But his 2 earned ferns in 0.2 innings finishing a brutal 9-2 loss versus the Pittsburgh Pirates seemed to help symbolize the collapse of the Mets before it was even official.

Poche actually signed with the Mets twice this year. The first was in mid-May. Released on July 1, he returned days later on a new contract but wouldn’t get back to the big leagues. His 4.82 ERA and almost as many walks as he had strikeouts in Syracuse explains this.

What makes Poche’s 2025 season really unfortunate is how good he was not all that long ago. A member of the Tampa Bay Rays for several seasons, he pitched to a 3.86 ERA last season and had an incredible 2.23 ERA the season prior. The unpredictable bug bit him on the shoulder. He was bad with the Washington Nationals to begin the year. He showed no improvements with the Mets.

Jonathan Pintaro had the same 27.00 ERA from his lone appearance from the Mets so if you did remember Poche, maybe you forgot about Pintaro. An actual prospect, but already 27, he could be a candidate to get a second chance. Poche never did.

Who are the next young studs for the Mets?

https://www.justmets.net/p/who-are-the-next-young-studs-pt-1

OF/2B A.J. Ewing (No. 7 prospect, Double-A BNG)

2025 MiLB Totals: 124 G, 564 PA, .315/.401/.429, 153 H, 3 HR, 26 2B, 10 3B, 87 R, 55 RBI, 70 SB, 18.6%-12.1% K-BB%, .113 ISO, .392 BABIP, .390 wOBA, 147 wRC+

Latest Scouting Grades: Hit: 50 / Power: 45 / Run: 60 / Arm: 50 / Field: 55 / Overall: 50

MLB Comp: Jacob Wilson (2024 Grades: 70 / 45 / 50 / 55 / 50 / Overall: 55)

Carson Benge wasn’t the only Mets prospect to fly through three minor league levels this season. Ewing just happened to post an OPS+ over 130 everywhere he went.

A.J. Ewing has been receiving praise since the moment he suited up in the orange and blue. A compensatory fourth-round draft pick in 2023 (received, funnily enough, as a result of the departure of Jacob deGrom), the course of Ewing’s development last season closely followed that of Reimer’s, with maybe even steeper odds attached at his journey’s outset.

When initially drafted, Ewing graded out far lower than his current projections. Seen as a ‘project’ with a ‘light’ arm that was destined for utility duties, Ewing’s development in his second year of action has significantly raised his initial ceiling.

Yet despite all the toolsy upside that Ewing’s already put on display, he has one particular skill (aside from his ability to make near-constant contact) that has established itself as a cornerstone to his overall game: base stealing.

(Hmm…there seems to be a theme developing down on the farm…)

Though slightly undersized, Ewing has already proven a threat on both sides of the ball, and his defensive development is showcasing a comfort in center field that scouts think will complement the likes of Carson Benge manning a full-time corner position. (That means Nimmo and/or Soto are likely destined for perma-DH duties eventually, but I think that’s a reality we all foresaw anyway.)

Whether he pops in for a few games in September 2026 or breaks camp in April 2027, I don’t doubt Ewing will also be in Queens sooner than later.

Mets fan survey results

LINK

Who or what do you blame most for the 2025 season? You can only pick one.

44% - The starting pitchers for their woeful second half

29% - David Stearns for his roster construction

9% -   The offense for its boom-or-bust inconsistency

8% -   The coaching staff for not fixing persistent issues

8% -   The defense for consistently giving away extra outs

4% -    Carlos Mendoza for not maximizing the talent

So far, the coaching staff has been held most accountable for what happened in 2025. The fans see it a little differently.

Potential Mets trade

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/new-york-mets/news/potential-mets-trade-deals-away-jonah-tong-ryan-clifford-65-million-all-star-ace/eca1f7dcd8f7183741eac0e2

Mets get: LHP MacKenzie Gore

Nationals get: RHP Jonah Tong, 1B/OF Ryan Clifford

Extract that rough patch, and Gore otherwise had a 3.19 ERA. He also struck out at least 180 batters for a second consecutive year, which is something only eight other pitchers can boast. He would immediately elevate the overall competency of this pitching staff, and at a fraction of the dollar cost it would take to sign a comparable free agent like Dylan Cease or Framber Valdez

Gore’s rough patch raised his ERA to 4.17, but he still had 185 Ks and a K/9 of 10.4. With some offseason work and the ability to be a little back in the rotation, he could thrive for the Mets.

 

Mets linked to Bo Bichette

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/onsi/news/new-york-mets-linked-to-all-star-infielder-bo-bichette-in-free-agency-grant9

Mark Vientos didn't win the third base job like most expected he would in 2025. Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Luiangel Acuña all got opportunities to contribute and perhaps win their own starting role, but none played well enough to deserve the job outright. Jeff McNeil was decent, but his best days are likely behind him. And top prospect Jett Williams appears poised to make the Mets' big league team next spring.

In other words, all of those names are potential trade candidates this offseason. And given the solid return the Mets could get for any of those players, at least one of them could very well be on the move this winter — which would potentially open up a spot for New York to sign a more elite infielder.

 

A.J. Ewing

LINK

Ewing, a 2023 Springboro High School graduate who turned down a baseball scholarship to attend University of Alabama, is satisfied as a professional baseball player.

“My goal never was to be a college baseball player,” Ewing said during a phone interview from the Mets spring training facility in Florida. “This is about getting my feet wet and getting used to the pro environment. I want to get to the bigs.”

That means playing for the Mets one day at Citi Field. And the sooner the better.

So instead of being a junior at Alabama, Ewing has played 2 1/2 seasons of professional baseball.

In 221 games, Ewing, known as a contact hitter with blazing speed, is hitting .283 with 13 homers, 107 RBIs and 84 stolen bases.

 

Running From The OPS                 @OPS_BASEBALL

A small update to my Hitter Cards. Here is Juan Soto and his absurd 73% H-H% against 4-Seamers.

-xwOBAcon

-Chase%

-Bat Speed

-LA Sweet Spot%

have all been added

With the 2026 IFA Signing Day About 2 months out . Here are a few names for the 2027 Class, lead by Euniel de la Cruz rumored bonus is $3M-$3.3M.This looks to be a very good class for the Mets.

 

Elihu D Feustel                @d_feustel

Inning score only matters if you are holding bullpen for later games. If not, you simply want to minimize expected runs every inning. With no tomorrow, you should play your bullpen much more aggressively.

                   Tangotiger             @tangotiger

I was hoping someone would give a good answer to save me from typing something verbose, and this is a great terse answer. If your SP loads the bases in the 4th AND you intend to bring in a reliever, you would bring in Mariano Rivera, full stop

 

Jim Koenigsberger           @Jimfrombaseball

Umpire Larry Barnett: “One more peep out of you and you’re out of the ballgame.”

Vern Rapp: “Peep.”

Barnett ejected Rapp, who refused to leave because he felt the punishment didn’t fit the crime. Rapp said it was the first  time he’d been ejected for saying the word “peep.”

"Before a ballgame, Vern Rapp is as friendly as a collie dog. Once in a game, he’ll use anything up to poison gas to try to beat you. He is a tough loser, and in the heat of battle he can erupt  like a volcano."

Vern Rapp staged a protest by sitting on home plate after being ejected following a dispute with umpire Larry Barnett in a game at Albuquerque  in 1966.

When Rapp refused to move, the umpire called police, who escorted Rapp  from the field.

Rapp lost two full seasons, 1951-1952 due to service in Korea.

JUST BASEBALL TOP 50 DRAFT PROSPECTS - #21-25

 

2026 MLB Draft – Top 50 College Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/mlb-draft/mlb-draft-top-college-prospects/#entry-135444

21. Derek Curiel – OF

HT/WT: 6’2/182 | Bat/Throw: L/L | School: Louisiana State | Hometown: West Covina, CA | Projected Age: 21.1

A long-heralded prep bat for years, Curiel elected to go to campus and made an immediate statement for the Tigers, becoming the table-setter for a National Championship squad.

Curiel has always prioritized contact over power with his game, but even with that approach, Curiel’s pure contact skills and approach are really, really good. It’s a tranquil and rhythmic operation from the left side of the plate, staying in control throughout his load and consistently getting the bat to the baseball.

Curiel rarely whiffs, draws walks at a high clip, and utilizes the gaps to generate his extra bases. There is some passivity, which has allowed opposing pitchers to get ahead and use their best stuff against Curiel, but it’s nothing overly egregious.

While he does have projection left to his frame, Curiel won’t be a slugger. He doesn’t have the bat speed and torque of his peers, which limits his overall ceiling. He’s shown over-the-fence production down each foul line, sending it the opposite way more often than not. The outlook on offense looks to be a potential 60-hit/40-power player.

Defensively, Curiel has manned left field primarily for the Tigers, and that’s likely where he’ll stay with Chris Stanfield back in the fray. He does have strong instincts and is a solid route-runner, but his arm strength and average speed will relegate him to left field.

We’ll see how the overall profile evolves over the next year, but it’s hard to find a better hit tool in the country.

 

22. Carson Tinney – C

HT/WT: 6’3/220 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Texas | Hometown: Castle Pines, CO | Projected Age: 21.3

Tinney’s journey through collegiate baseball has been a unique one to date. Originally from Colorado, Tinney ventured to Notre Dame to start his career, but a torn ACL in 2024 kept him sidelined.

He had some struggles to start 2025, but he became one of the hottest bats in the country during the second half. After falling short of the postseason, Tinney is now at Texas, where he’ll replace Rylan Galvan for the Longhorns.

Tinney’s power is among the best in the country, grading out as potentially double-plus at the next level. There’s a lot of pure strength in his frame, but Tinney generates solid bat speed and leverage in his swing. He hits the stitches off the baseball routinely, plus his ability to pull the baseball in the air is a huge plus. He’s a guy who will mash mistakes.

The hit tool will lag behind the power, admittedly. He’s a patient hitter with the ability to draw a copious amount of walks, and he handles velocity decently, but he struggles to adjust to off-speed pitches and runs high whiff rates on them. Even if Tinney is a .220 hitter, odds are that Tinney is capable of hammering 30+ home runs. That’s still valuable.

Behind the plate, Tinney has an incredibly strong arm and throws out runners consistently. He can be slow out of the crouch, which is a problem that plagues larger backstops, though the arm strength helps ease those woes. Hunter Goodman is an easy comparison to make here, and it’s certainly a plausible outcome.

 

Back to table

23. Chris Rembert – 2B

HT/WT: 6’0/202 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: Auburn | Hometown: Pensacola, FL | Projected Age: 21

Auburn’s group of freshmen was among the best in the country in 2025, but it was Rembert who stood out the most.

Rembert finished the season with a slash line of .344/.467/.555, fourteen doubles, ten home runs, and a nearly identical K:BB ratio in the SEC. It’s a compact frame with proportionate strength, plus he’s become a smoother athlete since stepping onto campus.

It’s a healthy offensive package. There’s some twitch at the plate with quick hands and solid bat speed, sending the ball back up the middle and to the pull-side consistently. Rembert does a solid job of handling velocity, and he can ambush heaters for power.

However, he does swing over breaking balls and can struggle to generate quality contact on secondaries. He shows patience at the plate, seldom chasing and racking up a hefty amount of walks. He coils his core well and flashes average to above-average power, especially to the pull-side. If he can clean up some of the troubles with secondaries, it’s a potential 50-hit/55-power profile.

Defensively, his arm strength does limit him to the right side of the dirt, but he’ll be a reliable defender at second base. He has soft hands, solid footwork, and a gliding nature to his motions that will keep him in that position long-term, though it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Auburn try him out at shortstop next spring.

He projects to be one of the first draft-eligible sophomores off the board next July.

 

24. Tegan Kuhns – RHP

HT/WT: 6’3/189 | Bat/Throw: S/R | School: Tennessee | Hometown: Gettysburg, PA | Projected Age: 21.1

One of the better pitching talents to reach campus after the 2024 draft, Kuhns found some success as Tennessee’s Sunday guy, but it’s what he did on the Cape that has scouts and analysts looking towards a breakout in 2026. In three starts with Brewster, Kuhns allowed just two runs, striking out twenty and walking just one. It was an excellent showing.

Kuhns has a slender, athletic frame with plenty of projection yet to come, plus he has outstanding arm speed with some deception mixed in. Kuhns sinks into his lower half well with his drop-and-drive mechanics, allowing him to generate power from the ground up.

It’s easy velocity, too. Kuhns has already reached back for 98 MPH, though he’ll find himself holding 92-95 MPH throughout starts. He commands the heater well, especially on the top rail, where he’ll generate most of his whiffs thanks to the riding life and backspin on the offering. An argument can be made that this is Kuhns’ best pitch.

He has a strong breaking ball that he spins excellently in the upper-70s/low-80s that he can manipulate, morphing between a shorter curveball and a larger sweeper. The curveball itself flashes more 11/5 shape at its best, with spin rates creeping up on the 3,000 RPM barrier.

Kuhns added an upper-80s cutter to act as a bridge offering halfway through the spring, plus there’s feel for a tumbling mid-80s splitter, as well.

His secondary command was a bit lackluster in the spring, but that changed drastically during the summer. He’ll need to show the ability to carry that over to the SEC in 2026, but Kuhns is in line for a breakout sophomore campaign. Given all the traits and metrics, Kuhns could wind up rising up boards quickly.

 

25. Ryan Lynch – RHP

HT/WT: 6’3/235 | Bat/Throw: R/R | School: North Carolina | Hometown: Moorestown, NJ | Projected Age: 21

A draft-eligible sophomore from New Jersey, Lynch became one of Scott Forbes’ most trusted arms out of the bullpen in Chapel Hill. As the season drew to a close, Lynch began to see time as a starter, and he passed each test with flying colors.

After a successful summer trip to Japan, Lynch is now in a position to start for the Tar Heels in 2025, and there’s enough upside to suggest a full-fledged starter as a professional.

Lynch is more of a “data darling” at this stage, but he’s how you draw them up. A big-bodied right-hander with good athleticism, Lynch moves free and easy down the bump with a very low release height that hovers around the five-foot mark.

As a result, his fastball gets a ton of running action out of the hand, though he’s played with two shapes to date. One is a heavy two-seam/sinker that bores in on the hands of righties, while he’ll flash a more vertical four-seam with a flat VAA to the plate. He’s reached back for 98 MPH at his peak, mainly sitting in the 92-96 MPH bucket, holding velocity well and peppering the zone with strikes.

His best pitch is a mid-80s sweeper that flashes plus with significant sweeping action and lift. At times, he’s generated over five inches of lift and upwards of fifteen inches of sweep. It’s a gnarly offering.

He has yet to deploy a change-up, but he’s teased it during warm-ups. He’ll generate a ton of groundballs and have a higher floor than most of his peers, but his size, arsenal, and command are enticing for teams.

 

Tom Brennan - Mets Salary Thoughts of the 2026 Kind

UNLIKE UNCLE STEVE, I HATE SPENDING MONEY 

Danny Abriano of SNY compiled 2026 Mets salary thoughts very nicely in a recent article in October. I’ll consider that estimated and actual data which shared, and share some of my own thoughts about Mets’ Mega Money Moolah Matters in my article today, as I briefly interrupt my 7 part Top Prospects series of articles with this topic.

SALARY COMMITTED FOR 2026

Danny notes that Mets enter the offseason with roughly $223 million committed for 2026, per Cot's Contracts. He noted that includes the $18 million estimated for player benefits, the money owed to zero-to-three players in both the majors and minors who are under team control, and the bonus pool for pre-arbitration players.  

When you have the salaries of Soto, Nimmo, and Lindor, that alone gets you half way to the luxury tax threshold each season.

This will increase with arbitration raises owed to a handful of players, including David Peterson and Francisco Alvarez.

The $223 million does not include Pete Alonso ($27 million player option for 2026) and Edwin Diaz ($18.63 million owed if he doesn't opt out). Both opted out. 

Rolling off the books are the contracts of free agents Starling Marte ($20.75 million in 2025), Jesse Winker ($7.5 million), Ryne Stanek ($4.5 million), Griffin Canning ($4.25 million), and the four major trade deadline acquisitions: Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, Cedric Mullins, and Gregory Soto.

If it was up to me, I’d seek to retain Helsley, Canning, and Rogers there.

The Mets will have big decisions to make on Alonso and Diaz. 

WHAT WILL ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS MAKE?

The Mets have nine arbitration-eligible players.

Abriano noted that those players and their projected salaries, via MLB Trade Rumors, totaling $23.5 million are:

David Peterson: $7.6 million
Tyrone Taylor: $3.6 million
Tylor Megill: $2.6 million
Francisco Alvarez: $2.4 million
Luis Torrens: $2.2 million
Reed Garrett: $1.4 million
Nick Madrigal: $1.35 million
Huascar Brazoban: $1.3 million
Max Kranick: $1 million

I personally believe that Megill and Madrigal are unlikely to get retained, since Megill is not ready until 2027, and Madrigal is “army surplus” with all the Mets’ infielders, and every dollar retained comes with a huge tax.  But, of the two, Megill might be retained because when you need four dozen pitchers a year, give or take a dozen…

But I think I would drop both, cutting $4 million from the $23.5 million, getting the Mets up to $242.5 million ($223MM plus $19.5MM). I think everyone else in that list of nine should get retained.

HOW MUCH MONEY IS THERE TO ADD PLAYERS THIS OFFSEASON?

Beyond the $242.5 million, which is less than $2 million from the first luxury tax level kicking in, Stearns and Cohen have to decide on where to take the 2026 payroll.   Start a youth movement in earnest, and you could probably keep it to $260MM to $280MM.  And, doing that, then bend it under the cap later on, perhaps as soon as 2027.

Yes, luxury taxes become increasingly onerous, but a whole-scale youth movement could take the 2026 playoffs off the table.  A buying spree would spike salaries and taxes, but could engender a deep playoff run, which brings in huge bucks - and glory - but could rapidly move the Mets towards every home date being Oldtimers’ Day.”  “Now batting, number 38….wait, no, that’s his age.”

Me? I think the Mets, out of sheer necessity, broke the ice with 3 newbie September starters - McLean, Tong, and Sproat - and that could have a huge hidden 2026 bonus for the Mets -  I believe the trio, now broken in, could inexpensively provide 450-500 Mets starter innings in 2026.  

If things go well with those 3 from the 2026 get-go, and with other dandies in the minors  like Santucci and Wenninger excelling in 2026 as I expect them to, in order for them to be ready for mid-season Mets call ups, some starter pitching veterans could be dealt carefully at the trade deadline to reduce team salary cash hemorrhage.

The by-mid-season-from-the-minors additions could also include pitchers Dylan Ross and Ryan Lambert, two future possible bullpen studs for years, and Jett Williams, Ryan Clifford, Carson Benge, Ryan Clifford, and Nick Morabito, if all are retained and some are not traded.

Then, once their youth movement is carefully assessed for realistic 2026 movement upwards, the external free agent market will fill in the blanks.

But me? As hungry as I am for a Mets World Series, I’d like to see an ongoing, concerted youth movement.  Even with the Soto/Nimmo/Lindor annual massive salary iceberg, a case could be made where Mets team salaries come back under the cap again, and stay there for years to come, with re-stocking from a currently-bulging minors.

ANY EXTENSIONS FOR UNDER-CONTROL PLAYERS?

Alvarez could be extended.  

Just make sure you buy the Alvarez Gold extended warranty.  

If Alvarez does get a pre-free agency multi-year deal, that could add upwards pressure on total team salary for 2026 and beyond, but eventually lead to significant annual salary savings. 

Much of the Mets strategy going forward has to involve frequent playoff appearances, preferably yearly.  

How best to get there, particularly for 2027 forward?  We will soon find out. 

Steve Cohen privately has to be very, very disappointed in what he thought would be a nearly perennial playoff-participating franchise.  If you as his team had made it 5 straight years, you might be more tolerant to rebuild on-the-fly in 2026, and see what happens.  

But the very spotty playoffs action since Cohen acquired the team may make him  extremely reluctant to not spend big again, in hopes of a deep 2026 playoff run.  He may thus attack the free agent market with fervor, and spend huge to try to make the playoffs more of a 90% likelihood in 2026.

We shall see, won’t we?

OK, I have given you the LEGO pieces to build with….now you, dear reader, must go ahead and BUILD, as if Steve Cohen himself ordered you to take the wheel of the Mets Franchise Cruise Liner and steer it to sweet playoff waters.  Watch out for the coral reefs.

Reese Kaplan -- NY Mets 2026 Pitching Staff Options

There have been countless evaluations of what went wrong for the Mets in 2025 and what changes they need to make to ensure a repeat won’t occur for the 2026 season.  Everyone who is a fan knows the issues — injuries, lack of depth, inconsistent offense and, if you believe the personnel changes in the coaching staff, a poor performance of the people assigned to keep the players on track.

We can start with pitching as it was a black hole for most of the season that ended without October baseball.  First were the injuries with multiple players missing months (or longer) due to arms, abdominal muscles, elbows and other maladies.  For awhile it was never clear who was going to start and who was going to relieve due to the revolving door of pitchers who, by necessity, needed to be changed as often as you would your underwear.

Then came the exhaustion.  We saw David Peterson morph from ace-like stuff to batting practice pitcher.  Kodai Senga did the same and was treated even more harshly with a demotion to Syracuse.  Clay Holmes started off quite well but the unaccustomed volume of innings had him go through a less successful period.  Sean Manaea had a late start to the season and finished with some pretty ugly numbers including a 5.64 ERA.  Frankie Montas requiring surgery was addition by subtraction and Tylor Megill is gone for all of 2026 as well. 

Out of sheer necessity the Mets made the three late season additions of Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat and Jonah Tong.  McLean was a life raft for his 8 starts finishing with a 5-1 record and a 2.08 ERA.  Sproat who was a 3.83 ERA pitcher in the minors saw his number jump by nearly a full run.  The potential is there but not as an ace level pitcher.  Tong is perhaps the most puzzling as he totally dominated in AA at age 22 with 20 starts, going 8-5 with a 1.59 ERA, a WHIP under 1.000 and notching an average of 14.3 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched.  He hit the wall big time in the majors.  After a two game stint in AAA he finished his rookie campaign over 5 starts going 2-3 with a 7.71 ERA.  He’s got premier stuff but perhaps was rushed a bit in the club’s dual needs for pitching and their pursuit of the playoffs. 

Going into 2026 everyone is truly unsure what the front office will do to address these issues.  If Edwin Diaz indeed departs it would not be stunning to see Clay Holmes returned to the bullpen where he has dominated in the past.  If so, then the club is looking at potentially Sean Manaea, Nolan McLean, Kodai Senga and David Peterson as starters with Sproat and Tong fighting it out for SP5.  That rotation does not exactly fill opposing hitters with anxiety.

Many are advocating the Mets mortgage the future in trades for the likes of Tarik Skubal, Joe Ryan, Paul Skenes or Freddy Peralta.  Skenes and Skubal most definitely have ace stuff, but the asking prices in terms of player personnel will be huge.  Peralta and Ryan are probably number two level starters or number ones on less robust staffs.  Still, any of these four would immensely help.

The free agent options are plentiful but many of them are going to be seeking long term deals for big money.  Since David Stearns has rightfully been reluctant to commit to such an injury prone position as starting pitcher for megabucks and multiple years, it’s more likely they will fish around the middle of the pack for solid starters who are not quite ace material.  Hopefully this exploration will not include the likes of the next Frankie Montas. 

One name that has come up multiple times is starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai currently with Seibu.  He’s a slim and small pitcher who relies more on location and ball spin than sheer velocity.  His NPB Japanese career ERA is 3.15 which is quite good, but since 2022 he has pitched even better to an ERA under 2.50.  In his most recently complete season he went 10-5 with a 1.92 ERA, averaging 9.8 strikeouts per 9 innings pitched and a WHIP of just 0.892.  Going into 2026 he will be just 28 years old and although not as highly regarded as other NPB free agents, he looks to be someone affordable and worth a longer term deal than the over-34 aged pitchers in free agency domestically.

Not to rule out that group entirely, there are some decent arms to explore, including former Met Chris Bassitt, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly who will cost between $14 and $20 million on short term deals of one year plus an option for a second.  These types of additions would enable the Mets to keep Sproat and Tong as depth pieces working on improving their games and consistency in Syracuse.

John From Albany: 10 Years Ago - Mets take 2-0 lead to 9th but fall to Royals in Extras to drop 2015 World Series, 11/1/2015

 

NY Daily News, 11/2/2015

Year: 2015; World Series Game #1; Wednesday; Nov 1, NYM 2 Vs KCR 7; boxscore; WP: Luke Hochevar; LP: Addison Reed; Time: 4:15; Night; Attendance: 44,859; Record: 1-4; L; Royals win World Series 4-1;

Curtis Granderson RF: 1 for 4; HR; 2 runs; 1 RBI; 1 walk; 2 Ks; David Wright 3B: 1 for 5; 3 Ks; Daniel Murphy 2B: 0 for 3; 2 walks; 2 Ks; Yoenis Céspedes CF: 0 for 3; GDP; Juan Lagares CF: 0 for 2; Lucas Duda 1B: 0 for 2; SF; 1 RBI; 2 walks; 1 K; Travis d'Arnaud C: 0 for 5; GDP; 1 K; Michael Conforto LF: 2 for 5; 1 K; Wilmer Flores SS: 0 for 4; GDP,IW; 1 walk; 1 K; Matt Harvey P: 0 for 3; Kelly Johnson PH: 0 for 1; Matt Harvey: 8 innings; 2 runs; 2 ERs; 5 hits; 2 walks; 9 Ks; Jeurys Familia, BS (3): 2 innings; no runs; 2 Ks; Jon Niese: 1 inning; no runs; 1 hit; Addison Reed, L (0-1): 0.1 inning; 5 runs; 4 ERs; 3 hits; 1 walk; Bartolo Colón: 0.2 inning; no runs; 1 hit; 

Royals come back from 2-0 hole in the 9th to tie the game and send it to extras as the Mets lose in 12 innings and lose the 2015 World Series 4 Games to 1.

For the 3rd time in the series, the Mets took a lead into the late innings and ended up losing.  Curtis Granderson homered in the 1st, Lucas Duda added a Sac Fly in the 6th and Harvey was cruising.  Harvey K'd 9 in 8 shutout innings and lopied Terry Collins to complete the game.

Joel Sherman NY Post: The 9th-Inning decision that will haunt Terry Collins forever. "Collins was wavering, swayed by Harvey’s talent and intensity. That combination had delivered eight shutout innings, carried the Mets to within three outs of winning 2-0 and forcing the 111th World Series back to Kansas City. Collins said he does not let the crowd impact decisions, but clearly taking out Harvey at that point was going to unplug a great deal of the energy and momentum that was sweeping through a crowd of nearly 45,000 trying to arm-twist Collins with chants of 'Harvey, Harvey.'"

NY Post: Mets’ lead and year disappear in gut-wrenching World Series loss. "[Harvey] walked Cain to lead off the ninth and Cain stole second before Eric Hosmer smashed an RBI double to left. Jeurys Familia entered and retired Mike Moustakas, with the lead runner advancing to third. Salvador Perez then hit a grounder with the infield in and Hosmer snuck home on Wright’s throw to first base — Duda’s throw to the plate after Wright failed to look Hosmer all the way back to third beat Hosmer home but wasn’t in the same zip code — tying it 2-2."

NY Post: Why a Royals scouting report was start of the Mets’ demise. "'Make [Lucas] Duda throw the ball. Make [Travis] d’Arnaud throw the ball,' was presented to every Royals player."

NY Post: The ‘ballsy’ play that doomed hard-luck Familia again. "But his run of success ended in the World Series. In Game 1, he allowed a game-tying homer to Alex Gordon with one out in the ninth. Familia was on the mound, although not the loser, when the Royals rallied in the eighth inning Saturday in Game 4 to grab a 3-1 series lead aided by Daniel Murphy’s error. On Sunday, he suffered his second straight blown save, third of the series."

Familia threw a scoreless 10th, Jonathan Niese a scoreless 11th before the Royals broke through in the 112th, scoring 5 runs on 4 hits and a Daniel Murphy error - all charged to Addison Reed though 3 scored on a bases loaded double by Lorenzo Cain off Bartolo Colon.

Michael Conforto singled in the bottom of the 12th, his second hit of the night and just the 4th hit for the Mets the entire game but Wade Davis K'd the side and the 2015 season was over.  

ESPN.com: Royals catcher Salvador Perez named World Series MVP. "Perez hit .364/.391/.455 in the series, going 8-for-22 at the plate with two doubles while scoring three runs with two RBIs. In the Series-clinching win, Perez plated the tying run in the Royals' ninth-inning comeback, then sparked their victory in the 12th inning with a leadoff single down the right-field line before being lifted for pinch runner Jarrod Dyson."

2015 was one of the rare years that the Mets were in 1st or 2nd the entire year.  After not trading Wilmer Flores and getting Yoenis Cespedes as detailed in the SNY Documentary "Five Days in Flushing", the Mets swept a 3-game series against the Nationals and took over 1st for good.  They had an amazing series against the Dodgers with great pitching, amazing base running as they overcame a career ending injury to their SS Ruben Tejada. They swept a team in the NLCS that swept them in the post season, the Cubs.  They came to the World Series with power hitting and power pitching, but in the end the inability to field a ground ball and throw out a base runner did them in.

After the series Rico Petrocelli on the MLB Radio Network said "I hope the Mets young pitchers can stay healthy. Once again we Mets fans say..."What might have been."