OPEN THREAD - 2B - Robinson Cano

The Mets have been approached by the Seattle Mariners about a possible trade for Robinson Cano.

36 years old

2018: only 310-AB, .303/.374/.471/845, 10-HR, 50-RBI

$24mil a year through 2023 (41-years old)

OPEN THREAD - SP - Nabil Crismatt

PC - Ed Delany

Pitcher Nabil Crismatt has signed a minor league contract with the Seattle Mariners.

The 23-year old signed on with the Mets in 2012 as a international free agent. He was impressive from the start, posting 26-apps, 3.95 for St. Lucie in 2017 and 18-apps, 3.59 for Binghamton n 2018. Then came the brick wall named Las Vegas, where he went 9-ST, 8.84 at the end of last season.

I didn’t realize he went the free agent route and I’m not sure if it was the Mets that cut fish here. I wish he had one more year in Syracuse to steer the ship, but, alas, he’s no longer a Met.

A good Facebook friend of mine.

Ve con Dios, my friend.

Reese Kaplan -- Is BVW's Honeymoon Already Over?

Most people who have a ceremony of sorts to commit to a significant other take a long and often exotic trip to relish their time together.  During that time you tend to indulge in some extravagances you normally wouldn’t when life returns to normal – fancy restaurants, champagne, nightclubs, designer clothes, etc.  Hence the term “honeymoon period”.  According to Primer magazine, “The honeymoon period tends to last anywhere between 6 months and a year. The relationship still feels fresh and exciting, and you're constantly learning new things about each other and having first experiences together.”

I’ve used that same term myself with cautious optimism that new GM Brodie Van Wagenen will have some time (and budget) to shape the club to match his vision for how to build sustained success.  The Wilpons, of course, have some motivation to allow him the freedom to do so as it will justify this unconventional choice as GM and make them look crazy like a fox instead of merely disconnected with baseball reality. 

With those thoughts in mind I decided to take one more look at the last time the Mets changed GMs and whether or not that honeymoon period was indeed indulged.  Now to be fair, Sandy Alderson was thrust upon the Mets by the MLB front office to help staunch the bleeding of the Madoff era.  An observation of payrolls during his tenure tell a somewhat disturbing story. 

In 2010 the Mets had a $132 million payroll, good enough at the time for 5^th in the majors.  During that first season under the Alderson helm, the payroll dropped $12 million to $120 million, good for 7^th in the majors.  In 2012 it got worse – a mere $93 million in payroll which put the team in the middle of the pack at 14^th in the majors.  In 2013 they busted through what seemed to be rock bottom and took the payroll all the way down to $73 million which ranked them 23^rd in all of baseball.  In 2014 it climbed significantly in dollars to $89 million but only one slot in the rankings to 22^nd.  In the World Series year of 2015 they jumped again to $101 million but again moved up just one spot to 21^st.  After making it to the national stage in October you’d think the club would be ready to invest in 2016 but instead they dropped payroll to $99 million but actually they climbed two rungs on the payroll ladder to 19^th.  In 2017 which was the first of the last two unmitigated disasters, the payroll climbed to $120 million and the ranking was 12^th.  The 2018 squad also ranked 12^th, though the spending (albeit misguided) jumped significantly to $154 million.

So the 2010/2011 offseason was indeed a busy one by anyone’s measure, but the fruits of Alderson’s labor were not prime choice.   On the offensive side of the ledger he obtained catcher Ronny Paulino, outfielder Scott Hairston, pinch hitter Willie Harris, and drafted the immortal Brad Emaus via the Rule V process.  For starting pitchers he secured Chris Capuano, Chris Young and Justin Hampson.  For the bullpen he inked fading former Mets pitcher Jason Isringhausen, headcase Taylor Buchholz, and journeymen Blaine Boyer, Dale Thayer, D.J. Carrasco and Tim Byrdak.  That’s a total of 13 additions to the roster of which you can really only count Scott Hairston as a success.  Now, to be fair, Alderson was under instructions to get the Mets financial house of cards more stable, but trying to prove himself the smartest guy in the room by finding “value” picks did not work out as intended.

So now Brodie Van Wagenen inherits a team with two key players hamstringing the budget and roster on the DL for the 2019 season, expiring contracts of underperformers in Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas and Anthony Swarzak, and some tough tender/non-tender decisions on formerly promising players Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores.  He has another two years of Jay Bruce, as well.

If you look at the Mets payroll going into the 2019 season, it’s not pretty.  As last season ended Baseball Reference purported the 2018 payroll stood at $141 million.  That was down from the $154 figure that they had to start the season and they stood to lose a number of players to free agency, including Jerry Blevins, Jose Reyes, AJ Ramos, Devin Mesoraco and Austin Jackson.  You’d think that would give them some money to spend.

Unfortunately they have quite a few arbitration eligible players who are slated to get big bumps in salary, headed by Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom.  By most calculations the Mets committed payroll is about $92 million but then after you add in the estimated arbitration awards to players under contract and modest increases to pre-arbitration eligible players, you have to factor in another $47 million.  That means before ANY changes are made to the roster you are within $2 million of the 2018 season-ending payroll. 

So how much room will BVW have to implement his plan?  Yes, it’s possible that David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes will result in 75% payroll savings after 60 days on the DL.  Together they’re slated to earn $44 million of that $139 million payroll.  If BVW can convince the Mets to spend the insurance reimbursements, then theoretically they will have another $25.6 million to spend factoring in the 60 days of salary they must pay before the 75% return occurs. 

Now there are a number of relatively expensive pieces BVW could try to peddle to other teams to increase his flexibility.  Jay Bruce is slated to earn $14 million each of the next two seasons.  Todd Frazier’s final year is worth $9 million as is what should be the last season of Juan Lagares.  Anthony Swarzak is getting $8.5 million and Jason Vargas is going to be paid $8 million (plus a buyout for 2020). 

If you can believe the rumors about a Noah Syndergaard deal, one would certainly hope they are tying him to one of these albatross contracts much like the Mets were forced to swallow Derek Bell when they obtained Mike Hampton.  (For what it’s worth, two of the three players going to Houston were recognizable – Octavio Dotel and Roger Cedeno – along with minor league suspect Kyle Kessel.)   If, for example, trading Thor also meant ridding yourself of Jay Bruce’s $28 million commitment for this year and next, that would make such a deal a bit more palatable as it would give the Mets the chance to bolster their roster with the saved payroll dollars.

So will there be a honeymoon, or with $139 million + already committed, is the honeymoon over before it already began?

From The Desk… Bernie Smith, Jenrry Mejia, Lefty O’Doul, Kyle Regnault, Jordany Valdespin

Good morning.

PENSIONLESS MLB BALLPLAYERS: DRILLING DEEPER INTO PLIGHT OF A FORMER MET  -

Former Southern University Jaguar Calvin Bernard “Bernie” Smith, who spent eight seasons in the New York Mets minor league system, is one of 641 retirees not receiving a Major League Baseball (MLB) pension.

Smith, who played for the MLB Milwaukee Brewers in 1970 and 1971, and who later guided the team’s Single-A Danville Warriors affiliate to the Midwest League Finals in 1973, broke in with the Brew Crew in 1970. The rookie outfielder appeared in 44 games, came up to bat 76 times and collected 21 hits, including one home run.

          Mack – I wish that Smith had benefits, but I wish that I did too.

I worked my entire career for independent broadcasters with no IRA or retirement benefits. I made a lot of money, but I sure could use that fall back now.

Still, it was my choice to ‘play the game’ that way.

Sunday’s winter stat of the week –

        P Jenrry Mejia – 4.0-IP, 0-R, 0-BB, 4-K

                  Mack – I really don’t know what to do with this guy.

        Most of you are familiar with my feelings about this guy. I don’t want him in the organization.

        Still, we could use talent in the Mets bullpen which he should be able to step into (at his age) immediately.

        Your take?

Legendary San Francisco baseball bar  re-opens to fanfare –

                  A legendary San Francisco baseball memorabilia bar forced from its touristy spot in the city's downtown has re-opened in equally touristy Fisherman's Wharf.

San Francisco Mayor London Breed helped cut the ribbon for the opening of Lefty O'Doul's Ballpark Buffet and Cafe on Tuesday, along with owner Nick Bovis.

Lefty O'Doul's left its long-time spot on Geary Street by the cable cars in January 2017 after a dispute with the building's landlord.

Francis "Lefty" O'Doul was born in San Francisco in 1897.

The Mets released LHP Kyle Regnault on 11-20.

        The 29-year old undrafted pitcher came out of the University of Rhode Island in 2011. He pitched three years in the CanAm league before signing with the Mets prior to the 2015 season.

        He had a stellar minor league record before posting a respectable 4.77-ERA last year for Las Vegas.

        His overall minor league stat line over four seasons: 154-apps, 16-5, 3.18. 1.27, 209-IP, 231-K

        ???

JORDANY VALDESPIN  NAMED ATLANTIC LEAGUE PLAYER OF THE YEAR –

Valdespin led the Atlantic League with 154 hits, 94 runs scored and seven doubles during the 2018 season while ranking second in batting average at .3377, just .0007 from the batting title. The four-year MLB veteran was also among the league’s Top 5 in several other categories, finishing second in on-base percentage (.399) and total bases (222), third in stolen base percentage (.857) and fifth in slugging percentage (.487). In 113 regular season games, he totaled 12 home runs, 55 RBIs, 18 doubles and 46 walks.

Mack – I remember being asked in 2011 at the Mets spring training complex who was the best player in the Mets pipeline. I told that person that I had never seen a more exciting and talented infielder than Valdespin. But I also warned that person that he was a fuse waiting to be lit. It’s such a shame that this 30-year old pissed a guaranteed major league career away with his ego and drama.

Tom Brennan - IT HAPPENS EVERY JUNE IN METSVILLE

Tom Brennan - IT HAPPENS EVERY JUNE IN METSVILLE

Well, that title is not exactly precise.  

Sometimes, in Metsville, it happens in April....or May.  

But it happens almost every year.

First, though, comes the typical off season prologue.  

The season ends and the Mets have won 70-79 games, having fallen out of the race by the All Star break, at which time contracts are dumped to save money and get some marginal players in return. They don't eat some contract to get real, promising talent.

By now, they've also drafted poorly by picking too many players with mundane skill levels, hoping irrationally that they will become the next Jose Altuve.

Then, after the season, we all start speculating about all the possible trades and free agent signings we could pursue.  

Then, we hear that the Yankees will do whatever it takes to get marquee mega-talents to ensure that the playoffs are almost a given.  

Meanwhile, we hear that the Mets' budget, set at about 2/3 of what the Yanks spend, is either flat or may go up slightly.

Mets fans begin to hear that locking up top-tier Mets players likely won't be happening, no doubt to not bust the next season's budget. 

And we hear that we might trade top talent and we worry about Ryan-for-Fregosi might happen all over again.

The Mets then typically get aging, or healing and aging, players at mid-range contract levels.  And keep their own aging players too long.  

And they cling to the hope that guys who have under-performed in the past season will somehow out-perform in the next.  

They also build in cheap, very marginal depth type players, hoping mightily that high injury rates will become low injury rates and thus their need for marginal player usage will be minimized.

So what happens? Things go wrong.

The thin ice in the pond gives way.

While a few of those acquired and retained older/marginal players do well, most of them do not.  

Think aging Swarzak (hurt most of the year), aging Reyes (hits under .200), aging Todd Frazier (hits .213 for the second straight year), aging Gonzalez (meh offense), aging Bautista (another .200 hitter type), Paul Sewald (0-6 in one year, 0-4 in the next), and a myriad of batting practice pitchers in a season-long bull pen serenade.

We hear about the possible return of David Wright, while other teams focus on players who are able to actually play. 

And we see them gamble on another player with injury warning signs pre-contract, who will now miss most of his multi-year contract (Cespedes), making insurers unhappy and certain to raise future insurance rates significantly.

And the team wins in the 70s again, because some (but not enough) guys inevitably over-perform to keep the Mets out of the 60 win level.

Season after season this happens - rinse and repeat - as the aggressive, smart, high-spending Yankees own the town almost every year.

The Mets count on several things to make the business model work...enough casual fans in a highly-populated area to build an attendance floor...enough businesses to buy tickets...enough rabid Mets-for-life fans to hang in there until it is time to meet their maker...enough locals who hate the Yanks and hence won't switch allegiances...and the fact that for Long Islanders, it is too brutal to commute to the mid-Bronx.

And so...rinse and repeat.

Will this off season and next season be different?  

It could be.  How? 

Set the budget close to $200 million and relentlessly, unabashedly compete.

Or...rinse and repeat.  

And realistic fans will again get ready for the next June plunge.

Reese Kaplan -- Tired of Turkeys Behind the Plate?

Although turkey is traditional for Thanksgiving and ham is traditional for Christmas, maybe this time of the year in between the Mets ought to be thinking Wellington, as in Castillo.  The catcher nicknamed “Beef” actually spells his name with one “L” but that L might stand for “launch” as he’s hit a fair number of home runs over his career.  He came up with a reputation for being somewhat suspect behind the dish but last season nailed 49% of the runners attempting to steal against him.

Currently under contract to the White Sox at a salary of $7.25 million, Castillo might be an interesting stop-gap measure that fits into the modest investment scenario for a catcher already over 30.  Last season in under 200 ABs he hit 17 HRs and drove in 44 while hitting .259.  In 2019 Castillo will turn 32 during this upcoming season.  His contract expires after this season during which he’ll also earn $7.25 million.  He has an option for 2020 at $8 million or a $500K buyout.  For his career he’s averaged 21 HRs, 76 RBIs and .259 in a season.  If Patrick Mazeika continues to develop, then Castillo’s departure would coincide with the timetable for Mazeika’s arrival. 

This type of catcher, though not necessarily as attractive as some of the other options out there, has merit on a number of fronts.  First, it’s just a one-year commitment.  If age starts to catch up to him or he falters under the bright lights of the NL East, you’re off the hook for $500K.  Second, if he does flourish, you can lock him up with the 2020 option.  Third, take a look again at the 49% number for baserunners.  Wow…the pitchers would erect statues to the new man with the golden arm behind the dish. 

Given that he’s just got one firm year of commitment left and while not overly expensive, it’s not chump change either…the White Sox probably wouldn’t be looking for much in return.  We’re probably thinking a trio of Grade B prospects would be enough to get it done. 

Of course, there are a great many people who might think the better push in trade would be to suggest a Windy City reunion with Todd Frazier.  In his only full season with the White Sox the Toddfather slammed 40 HRs and drove in 98.  He’s due to make $9 million next season so the Mets would likely have to sweeten the deal by throwing in someone else with potential to offset the nearly $2 million delta in salary.  Say, for example, you offered the White Sox Gerson Bautista and his 100 mph wild arm along with Frazier…would that be a fair deal to both sides for Castillo?  Maybe you need to toss them a catcher as well.  

I know, I know…so if you trade Frazier what do you do about third base?  Well, internally you could shift Jeff McNeil to 3^rd and open up 2^nd for one of Luis Guillorme, Gavin Cecchini, TJ Rivera or Wilmer Flores.  Or you could go sign a one-year deal for Josh Donaldson to let him reestablish his value while allowing Andres Gimenez time to develop.  Or sign contact hitter D.J. LaMahieu who owns a career .298 batting average to play 2B. 

My thinking is he wouldn’t bust the bank and with the older Kurt Suzuki no longer an option you wouldn’t have to gamble nearly as much money as it would take to land Yasmani Grandal or Wilson Ramos.

OPEN THREAD - SS Andres Gimenez

Needless to say, we need a few critical players to fill slots this year with the hopes of making us competitive in 2019.

Catcher... relief pitching... center field.

Wealso know we have a limited amount of 'red chip' prospects in the upper levels of the pipeline, which would limit trade abilities.

Lastly, with Alonso, McNeil, and Rosario, we already have a talented infield.

Question...

Do we dangle and eventually trade Andres Gimenez to achieve one of our short term goals?

Reese Kaplan -- BVW Might Want to Call the Padres

On Saturday we looked at the possibility of trading for help in the bullpen.  Today let’s look at another of the team’s biggest needs – a catcher – and one team in particular that Brodie Van Wagenen needs to have on speed dial – the San Diego Padres. Not too long ago the most highly regarded defensive catching prospect in baseball was Austin Hedges, currently number one on the Padres’ depth chart behind the dish.  His pitch framing abilities and arm strength are unquestionable.  The issue is whether or not his offensive potential ever catches up to his defensive acumen.

This past season for the Padres he was in something of a share in the catching position, Hedges tallied 303 ABs (about half a season’s worth).  In that time his .231 batting average was nothing to write home about, but he did slam 14 HRs and drove in 37.  That’s 28 HRs and 74 RBIs over the course of a full season which, if the defensive skills are there, is a highly respectable output even if accompanied by a large strikeout total and a low batting average.  The right handed batter will turn 28 during the upcoming season. 

During this past season they Padres traded solid reliever Brad Hand to the Cleveland Indians to help them in their quest of the post-season.  They got back arguably the top catching prospect in all of baseball, Francisco Mejia.  I had the good fortune (or misfortune) of seeing Mejia tee off on the Las Vegas 51s when they came to visit here in El Paso.  Mejia was a guy who would throw from his knees behind batters to try to nail runners at first.  He was a high contact hitter with occasional power.  The diminutive switch hitter has a career .291 average.  He’ll turn 24 during the 2019 season.


Given this depth already on the major league roster, perhaps the most intriguing name in the San Diego organization is Austin Allen, an offense-first catcher who played in AA this past season and assuming he’s added to the 40-man roster he should be on display for me locally here for El Paso.

The 4^th round draft choice has made the San Diego front office look good by providing strong run production.  Over the past two years he hit .287 with 44 HRs and 62 doubles.  He’s been in the minors since 2015 and has a career .290 average.  He’s 24 years old now but appears to be blocked at the major league level between Hedges and Mejia. 

I know a great many people feel catcher is a defense-first position, so they would be in the camp of trying to pry loose Hedges or Mejia.  There’s certainly a strong argument to be made for that, but at the same time the Mets’ primary problem last year (after bullpen) was the inability to score runs.  On that front Allen may have the strongest potential.


As a big man – 6’2, 225 – there was some concern about his flexibility and his conditioning, but he’s redoubled his efforts on both in the attempt to remain behind the plate instead of migrating to 1^st base which is more of an offense-first position.  He has sent videos of himself to the catching coordinators in the Padres’ system to try to refine his defensive game.


When asked about his preference, Allen was clear, “But catcher is so much fun. Having a relationship with all the pitchers and going to battle every day with them, it gets me going even talking about it.”

In 2016 he allowed 11 passed balls.  He worked at it and cut it nearly in half in 2017 to 6.  Then this past year he cut it down to a mere 3 in 795+ innings behind the plate. 

Whichever of these three catchers float your boat, it would seem that the Padres have a great depth where the Mets have a corresponding need.  It surely wouldn’t take a Noah Syndergaard to pry one of them loose, but with the number one farm system in the game, getting one of them as part of a package deal is certainly something to consider.

Happy Thanksgiving

Mack's Mets is closed today.

Enjoy the holiday with your family and friends.