Reese Kaplan -- Is BVW's Honeymoon Already Over?

Most people who have a ceremony of sorts to commit to a significant other take a long and often exotic trip to relish their time together.  During that time you tend to indulge in some extravagances you normally wouldn’t when life returns to normal – fancy restaurants, champagne, nightclubs, designer clothes, etc.  Hence the term “honeymoon period”.  According to Primer magazine, “The honeymoon period tends to last anywhere between 6 months and a year. The relationship still feels fresh and exciting, and you're constantly learning new things about each other and having first experiences together.”

I’ve used that same term myself with cautious optimism that new GM Brodie Van Wagenen will have some time (and budget) to shape the club to match his vision for how to build sustained success.  The Wilpons, of course, have some motivation to allow him the freedom to do so as it will justify this unconventional choice as GM and make them look crazy like a fox instead of merely disconnected with baseball reality. 

With those thoughts in mind I decided to take one more look at the last time the Mets changed GMs and whether or not that honeymoon period was indeed indulged.  Now to be fair, Sandy Alderson was thrust upon the Mets by the MLB front office to help staunch the bleeding of the Madoff era.  An observation of payrolls during his tenure tell a somewhat disturbing story. 

In 2010 the Mets had a $132 million payroll, good enough at the time for 5^th in the majors.  During that first season under the Alderson helm, the payroll dropped $12 million to $120 million, good for 7^th in the majors.  In 2012 it got worse – a mere $93 million in payroll which put the team in the middle of the pack at 14^th in the majors.  In 2013 they busted through what seemed to be rock bottom and took the payroll all the way down to $73 million which ranked them 23^rd in all of baseball.  In 2014 it climbed significantly in dollars to $89 million but only one slot in the rankings to 22^nd.  In the World Series year of 2015 they jumped again to $101 million but again moved up just one spot to 21^st.  After making it to the national stage in October you’d think the club would be ready to invest in 2016 but instead they dropped payroll to $99 million but actually they climbed two rungs on the payroll ladder to 19^th.  In 2017 which was the first of the last two unmitigated disasters, the payroll climbed to $120 million and the ranking was 12^th.  The 2018 squad also ranked 12^th, though the spending (albeit misguided) jumped significantly to $154 million.

So the 2010/2011 offseason was indeed a busy one by anyone’s measure, but the fruits of Alderson’s labor were not prime choice.   On the offensive side of the ledger he obtained catcher Ronny Paulino, outfielder Scott Hairston, pinch hitter Willie Harris, and drafted the immortal Brad Emaus via the Rule V process.  For starting pitchers he secured Chris Capuano, Chris Young and Justin Hampson.  For the bullpen he inked fading former Mets pitcher Jason Isringhausen, headcase Taylor Buchholz, and journeymen Blaine Boyer, Dale Thayer, D.J. Carrasco and Tim Byrdak.  That’s a total of 13 additions to the roster of which you can really only count Scott Hairston as a success.  Now, to be fair, Alderson was under instructions to get the Mets financial house of cards more stable, but trying to prove himself the smartest guy in the room by finding “value” picks did not work out as intended.

So now Brodie Van Wagenen inherits a team with two key players hamstringing the budget and roster on the DL for the 2019 season, expiring contracts of underperformers in Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas and Anthony Swarzak, and some tough tender/non-tender decisions on formerly promising players Travis d’Arnaud and Wilmer Flores.  He has another two years of Jay Bruce, as well.

If you look at the Mets payroll going into the 2019 season, it’s not pretty.  As last season ended Baseball Reference purported the 2018 payroll stood at $141 million.  That was down from the $154 figure that they had to start the season and they stood to lose a number of players to free agency, including Jerry Blevins, Jose Reyes, AJ Ramos, Devin Mesoraco and Austin Jackson.  You’d think that would give them some money to spend.

Unfortunately they have quite a few arbitration eligible players who are slated to get big bumps in salary, headed by Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom.  By most calculations the Mets committed payroll is about $92 million but then after you add in the estimated arbitration awards to players under contract and modest increases to pre-arbitration eligible players, you have to factor in another $47 million.  That means before ANY changes are made to the roster you are within $2 million of the 2018 season-ending payroll. 

So how much room will BVW have to implement his plan?  Yes, it’s possible that David Wright and Yoenis Cespedes will result in 75% payroll savings after 60 days on the DL.  Together they’re slated to earn $44 million of that $139 million payroll.  If BVW can convince the Mets to spend the insurance reimbursements, then theoretically they will have another $25.6 million to spend factoring in the 60 days of salary they must pay before the 75% return occurs. 

Now there are a number of relatively expensive pieces BVW could try to peddle to other teams to increase his flexibility.  Jay Bruce is slated to earn $14 million each of the next two seasons.  Todd Frazier’s final year is worth $9 million as is what should be the last season of Juan Lagares.  Anthony Swarzak is getting $8.5 million and Jason Vargas is going to be paid $8 million (plus a buyout for 2020). 

If you can believe the rumors about a Noah Syndergaard deal, one would certainly hope they are tying him to one of these albatross contracts much like the Mets were forced to swallow Derek Bell when they obtained Mike Hampton.  (For what it’s worth, two of the three players going to Houston were recognizable – Octavio Dotel and Roger Cedeno – along with minor league suspect Kyle Kessel.)   If, for example, trading Thor also meant ridding yourself of Jay Bruce’s $28 million commitment for this year and next, that would make such a deal a bit more palatable as it would give the Mets the chance to bolster their roster with the saved payroll dollars.

So will there be a honeymoon, or with $139 million + already committed, is the honeymoon over before it already began?