Paul Articulates - Lost focus

Baseball reached a new level of absurdity this week.  That in itself is quite a statement, as the sport of baseball has always been associated with showmen and promotions.  Think of the promotions of Bill Veek that spanned four decades or think of the time when the St. Louis Browns sent 3'7" tall Eddie Gaedel to the plate.  

This week, MLB announced that for two days in the middle of the 2025 season, the Binghamton Rumble Ponies (yes, that's our AA franchise) would be renamed the "Bathtub Donkeys".  It appears that this designation is meant to celebrate an arcane blue law that is still on the New York books since the 1800s that prohibits donkeys from sleeping in bathtubs.  

Is the law real?  Yes - a legal search will confirm it.  Is there a reason to celebrate that?  Apparently, MLB and the new owners of the Binghamton franchise Diamond Baseball Holdings thought there was.

Promotions are always very creative - find ways to gain the public's interest so one has an audience to sell to.  However, in this case it is hard to imagine that an audience that thirsts for outdated legal quirks would also enjoy watching athletic competitions.

The owners or some combination of their sponsors will have to fund new uniforms, the advertising, and even the creation of a new logo, a monogrammed towel, and a lettermark - all of which can be found on MiLB.com.

At this point I have to say that in my opinion, the money spend on this kind of tomfoolery will not have a good return on investment.  It would be better spent on players' salaries, better food/lodging for MiLB players, or even more baseballs.  The most recent collective bargaining agreement gave better salaries and benefits to minor league players, but it is still far from a great wage to live on - these guys go through real hardship to pursue their dreams.

Are you with me, or am I over-reacting?

Tom Brennan: Soto and Attendance; And 23-9, Not 12-6, is the Real Tally; And Position Player Arm Stength

The Mets have hugely under-earned the Yankees each year.

Steve Cohen know that.  

David Stearns knows that.

Even in 2024, the Yankees drew a whopping 1 million more regular season fans to their tilts in the regular season than the Mets (3.3 million vs. 2.3 million), the equivalent of 25 additional Yankees sell outs, despite both teams making the 2024 playoffs. 

The Mets greatly underperformed…at the ticket box.

Here are 3 interesting info links on team revenues:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimating-postseason-revenue-for-players-and-teams/

https://www.sportspro.com/news/mlb-revenue-2024-rob-manfred-yankees-dodgers-world-series/

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-mlb-teams-take-home-the-most-revenue/

In 2023, it tells me the Yankees grossed the most revenue at $679 million. 

The Mets were only 11th, at $393 million in revenues, or only about 60% of the Yankees’ haul. 

The Mets, in other words, appear to have grossed a whopping $286 million less in just 2023 than did the Yanks. 

Heck, even the Mariners’ gross revenues exceeded that of the Mets.

Steve Cohen knows that.  

David Stearns knows that.

Juan $oto may level the Mets’ and Yanks’ revenues.  

Perhaps entirely erase that $286 million annual revenues deficit.

That’s a ton of extra Mets cabbage, or extra moola boola, so to speak.

So…do you still think the Mets paid too much for Juan $oto?

Or is he ... I dunno ... a bargain?

I always like to remind readers of what he would be getting paid if his contract was broken out yearly by his potential value for that year, rather than straight line.  First 5 years are total prime years, 2nd 5 years, he hopefully is only in modest decline and still great, and 3rd 5 years, he is "baseball old" and hopefully still reasonably dangerous.

I would estimate the real annual value as follows: 

1) First 5 years: $80 million per year = $400 million

2) Second 5 years: $50 million per year = $250 million

3) Last 5 years: $23 million per year = $115 million.

23-9, Not 12-6

The re-upped Sean Manaea in point of fact won 12 and lost 6 in 2024.

But in his 32 starts, the Mets were 23-9.

I think the latter is far more significant than the former, don’t you?

A lot better than if he went 13-7, but they were 17-15 in his 32 starts.

What do I hope for in 2025? Oh, I dunno….23-9 would be nice.

METS' POSITION PLAYER ARM STRENGTH

The savvy stat-casters at Baseball Savant track lots of dandy data stuff, including arm strength, by position and by team (excluding catchers, who they rank based on "pop time").  

Naturally, I looked at the Mets' dudes Mets Position Players Arm Strength.

Strongest arm on average?  Starling Marte at 91 MPH.  

But Harry Bader had the strongest throw (speed-wise) at 98.3.

Weakest starting Mets position player arm? Pete Alonso, whose strongest throw was 72.9, putting him well down among MLB first basemen in that regard.  (Sorry, Pete, but the owners know this at contract time).  Vlad Guerrero, by comparison, hit 90.9 for his max throw at first base, with an average of 88.5.  Who knew?

Lindor maxed out at 92.3, while neither Vientos nor Baty owned rifles - Mark Vientos topped out at 88.7 and Baty at 85.9.

Still, not a Shawon Dunston or Roberto Clemente in the Mets bunch.  Those two had licensed howitzers.

Finally, Colton Cowser of the Orioles clocked in with the fastest position player throw of 2024, at 104.3 MPH: he was one of 17 players who were clocked above 100.0 MPH.  The Mets' best, Harry Bader at 98.3, was 38th fastest among MLB position players.

I have to speed off right now - you all have a day with real Pop Time. 

CATCHERS?

Before you chastise Francisco Alvarez for his seemingly very bad caught stealing performance, just 14 of 80 last year (17.5%), please realize that major leaguers on the whole in 2024 were successful in 79.2% of their steal attempts (3,617 successes and just 951 times caught stealing). So caught stealing % was just 20.8% in MLB. Why?

Guys are faster and pitchers are poorer at holding runners than in the good old days.

In fact, Alvarez is ranked 31st in arm velocity by Statcast, at 84.2 MPH (84.8 MPH in 2023).  Two things, though, about that 31st ranking.  

Add one more MPH on that (to 85.2) and he'd be ranked 16th.  And the list is comprised of 83 catchers, so he is in the top 40%. Lastly, only 3 of the 83 catchers are above 86.9 MPH, just as a point of perspective.

Lastly, on a look-back to 2019, former Met Nido was at 80.1, Buffalo Ramos was 81.6, and Plawecki was limp-noodled at 77.1.  James McCann 81.1, and the repaired Travis d'Arnaud topped them at 83.4, still almost one MPH short of Francisco. 

So quit yer yappin'.

TIM HILL?

Apparently there is interest in this LHRP.

ELIAN PENA

I long wished the Mets would put “all their chips” on a top one or top two international signing, like Juan Soto and Vlad Jr were several years ago, money so well spent. Well, the new, smart Mets finally did so. Elian was either top one or top 2, excluding Sasaki. BRAVO!!

Why go all in?  You win big with big stars.

17 year old SS/3B who is expected to be a GREAT hitter.

Tom Brennan: Frankie Montas

Montas Back in 2019 with the A’s

Sean Manaea on Frankie Montas:

 “I’m super excited [for the Mets signing Montas]. I love him to death. I’m very happy to be reunited with him,” Manaea said. “... He is a funny guy. He is very passionate about pitching. He goes out there and is a dog. He is tough and he is incredible, too.”

Fangraphs projects this for Montas:

10-8, 4.05 in 155 innings.

What’s so bad about Frankie Montas for SP-5?

Reese Kaplan -- Mets Offseason Roster Bullet List Number Seven

Mack's Mets will summarize players mentioned as possible new members of the team available via trade or free agency that have popped up in the media associated with them as a part of the 40 man roster.  These bullet points are not necessarily factual as if they were leaked from the Mets front office.  They comprise opinions, rumors and hypotheticals that various Mets beat writers and bloggers have felt necessary to put out into public notice.  Like EPA gas mileage ratings, take the news with a grain of salt.  We share but don’t necessarily endorse any of these transactions.

Current Rumors

Anthony Santander has once again hit the rumor mill with the change that arrived this past week is his desire for the equivalent kind of deal that’s floating around for Pete Alonso.  He’s allegedly seeking a shorter term contract with opt-outs at a higher average annual value.  That might make him say a $25 million player which is quite a bit for a .235 hitter but the power is undeniable.  

A correlated rumor arose that the Mets would look to get him even if they come to an agreement with Pete Alonso as either a left fielder with Brandon Nimmo moving to center or as a switch hitting DH.  We could live with that. 

Jurickson Profar is still out there and not exactly beating off a long line of suitors.  Too many teams probably feel his over-30 transformation into an offensive weapon was a one and done kind of performance.  Considering he was playing for just $1 million last year he’s not going to be an expensive grab for the team that decides to take a chance.

The Luis Arraez market as a trade chip seems to have grown legs with the league leading hitter for the past three years getting an arbitration salary of $14 million.  The Padres are looking to shed salary and between his win and the one for pitcher Dylan Cease both seem to fall into the high end talent shopping for the San Diego front office.  One article paralleled Arraez to Bill Madlock or Wade Boggs.  That’s pretty heady company for someone who is not a power hitter. 

Jose Quintana is still seeking a job and has not exactly had to sort through a mountain of offers from new employers.  Given his track record it’s a bit surprising.  Right now there is noise about Kansas City making him an offer, but one article profiled the Padres, Tigers, Pirates and Blue Jays as other landing spots for the 36 year old southpaw.

Everyone is aware of the Mets meeting with stud lefty reliever Tanner Scott.  Although Jeff Hoffman is now off the board, Kirby Yates, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc, A.J. Minter and even ex-Mets Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Adam Ottavino are still looking for a new gig.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are quite vocal about their open disappointment with what starter Jordan Montgomery did for them in 2024.  After notching a 6.23 ERA it was very out of character since he’d been well under 4.00 for the past several years.  The Snakes are on the hook for $22.5 million for this season as Montgomery exercised his option to get the big payday.  

You might be able to move a similarly expensive player to Arizona to clear them of this misplay on their roster and hope that Montgomery can return to what he once was.  Starling Marte, for example, is in that price range at $20.750 million for the upcoming year.  Swap poor fitting players?

Another surprisingly unemployed player is the OMG Met, Jose Iglesias.  Now remember that he was forced into taking a minor league deal last year before getting promoted early in the season to deliver a .337 average.  His defense is adequate but at his age teams may think of using him much like the Mets did in 2024 as a supersub while he may be thinking he deserves a starting role.  For all of the words about Pete Alonso, why are the Mets not making any noise about a reunion with Iglesias?

One name that came up regarding the Mets and other teams is outfielder Alex Verdugo.  Looking over his stats and he would be an adequate 4th outfielder, but beyond the career .272 average is modest power and no speed.  His salary will likely approach the $10 million mark which seems not necessarily the wisest use of payroll resources.

The Los Angeles Dodgers may actually be shopping from their deep well of formerly injured starting pitchers if and when Roki Sasaki joins their staff.  The one name that came up with a Mets reference is Tony Gonsolin who showed he could dominate when healthy.  For his career he’s got a record of 34-11 with a 3.19 ERA.  He will pitch 2025 at a $5.4 million salary and is not a free agent until 2027.  Yeah, I’d look long and hard at this hurler if the price isn’t too steep given he missed all of 2024. 

A Luis Robert, Jr. trade proposal was offered up this week in a one-for-one with the Mets sending Ronny Mauricio to the White Sox to relieve them of salary and a disappointing 2024 season after dominating in 2023.  That one would require some further discussion. 

The majority of St. Louis Cardinals rumors seem to center around finding a new home for Nolan Arenado, but this week another name surfaced that was an interesting two-year investment for a trade partner.  In 2024 starting pitcher Sonny Gray signed a $75 million three-year contract.  

With two years left at a salary level similar to Sean Manaea, the Cy Young Award winning pitcher might be worth considering.  As a salary dump the thinking is that the Redbirds wouldn’t be seeking a major prospect haul.

A name surfaced as a left handed reliever option from the Oakland A’s by the name of Scott Alexander.  Although he’s 35 years old, he’s been a very solid middle reliever for his entire career and owns a career ERA of just 3.20.  He pitched 2024 for just $2.25 million.  He wouldn’t break the bank whether or not they land a higher profile 8th inning guy.

A blockbuster five player trade surfaced this week should the Mets lose out on Pete Alonso though it could make sense regardless.  It was suggested the Mets could send a four man package of Jonah Tong, Ronny Mauricio, Drew Gilbert and Dom Hamel to net them current Oakland first baseman/DH Brent Rooker.  

If you’re not familiar with the name, it’s understandable.  He moved around from team to team never making a solid contribution until 2023 with the A’s when he came from out of nowhere to hit 30 home runs.  That effort landed him a $60 million four-year contract for 2024 and he upped the ante, raising his batting average to .293, the home run total to 39 and the RBIs to 112 with 11 SBs to boot.  Yes, it’s a steep price but considering the payroll bargain for this kind of output, it would be a solid get.

It’s not new to hear rumors about the Mets making a deal for Seattle number one starter Luis Castillo, but this week names arose as to what it would take if the Mets absorbed Castillo’s entire salary.  It was suggested that Jonah Tong and Brett Baty would get it done. 

And, just for laughs, it was suggested that the Mets bring back ill-fitting pitcher Marcus Stroman that the Yankees are anxious to dump.  Considering how he bad mouthed his former Queens employer on his way out, it’s a big “No!”

Tom Brennan: Matt Harvey v. Brandon Sproat; the Cost of Siri; Short Termers, Anyone?

The Dark Knight, Matt Harvey

The Dark Knight, Matt Harvey, was drafted seventh overall in 2010 by the New York Mets.

In 2011 he started out great in the lower minors, and then was promoted to AA. 

For the majority of 2012, he pitched in AAA. He did great in the lower minors, but in his 2012 and 2011 segments in AA and AAA, his ERA was close to 4.00 and his WHIP was 1.35, not eye popping.

He then was called up and proceeded to become the Dark Knight of Gotham almost immediately. He was the toast of the town, along with David Wright, in 2012 and 2013, before he needed Tommy John surgery. He returned well from it in 2015, but thereafter had thoracic problems and was never the same again. But in 2012 and 2013, he was just about the Mets’ comparable to Max Scherzer of Washington.

Brandon Sproat was drafted by the Mets in 2022, didn’t sign, and then was drafted again in 2023. He first pitched for the Mets in the minors  in 2024, and was great in A ball and in AA. 

In his 29 innings and AAA, late in 2024, he certainly had his ups and downs, but the fact that he was pitching in AAA in his first minor league season at all is very impressive.

Essentially, he outpitched Matt Harvey over the same stretch of time in their respective early careers.

White Knight Brandon Sproat

I believe that Brandon Sproat in his “second term” in AAA in 2025 will dominate the league, and be ready for his”inaugural” call up to Queens in June.

He will shortly thereafter become the Mets’ White Knight.

SPROAT?

SP = starting pitcher

ROAT = really outstanding and terrific.

ORZE FOR SIRI

The Mets traded Eric Orze for Jose Siri. Orze got called up once, briefly, in 2024, but in 2025, Fangraphs projects he will log 44 innings, with a 3.97 ERA and a K per inning. So acquiring Siri was not a freebie.

SHORT TERMERS?

Read this in Mets Trade Rumors: “a report from Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic this evening (1/11) suggests that some of the major free agents still available are weighing the possibility of turning towards short-term deals with high average annual values, as the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, and Jordan Montgomery did last winter after not finding the long-term pacts they were hoping for in free agency.  Per Rosenthal and Sammon, outfielder Anthony Santander and right-hander Jack Flaherty are both now open to considering that sort of deal.”

- What about Santander on a 1 year deal for $30 or $35MM, to play 1B?  

- He’s played 16 games at 1B in his career, so why not add a 44 HR man?

- And/or add Jack Flaherty for a 1 year deal, adding him to the rotation?

OH, THE TRIVIALITY 

My mind seeks out the trivial at times.  Here's one trivial tidbit...Detroit led all of MLB in triples in 2024, with 47.  The White Sox, on the other hand, were in little hurry - they totaled just 9. But somehow stole 14 more bases than the Tigers.

NOW THEY HAVE BOTH

In 2013, the Mets drafted Dom Smith in the first round, and the Yanks grabbed man-mountain Aaron Judge about 20 slots later. Now…the Yanks have both,

They signed Smith to a minor league deal. Can he resurrect his career with “the porch.”  He’ll probably hit 30 HRs this year.

The 29 year old Smith has hit 64 HRs, Judge only 62.  I know you understand the difference.

Remember 1969: Long Mets careers

 

Remember's Ramblings – Volume 2, Article 3

Jamuary 14, 2025

 

Career Mets?  

How many people work for just one organization in their life?

 

The other day I was reading through another Pete Alonso article over on the Mets360 site written by one Charlie Hangley.   There was a line in there that caught my eye – to quote Charlie:  “The fanboy in me says let’s bring Pete home, with the idea of him smashing most existing offensive club records and possibly becoming the fourth ballplayer in history to spend his entire career as a Met – the other three being David Wright, Ed Kranepool and Ron Hodges.”

While I also embrace the idea that Pete should stick around and smash most Mets hitting records in a few years (it will take him about a half-season to become the Mets all-time Home Run leader), it was the concept of only three other players in the Mets 63 years that have spent their entire career years with the Mets that piqued my interest.    

I immediately thought of Kevin Morgan who might take exception to that statement.     Back to the archives I went and found that in fact, those were the only three position players that had complete careers of 6 or more years that were spent entirely with one organization. 

Overall, 145 of the 1252 players that have ever played for the Mets did not play (or have not yet played) for another major league team. 

Of all players that have played with no other major league team, Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos rank #10 and #11 in games played among the position players.   The four mentioned above (Kranepool (1), Wright (2), Alonso (4), and Hodges (6) are all ahead of them and it is in fact none other than Brandon Nimmo who has played the 3^rd most games for the Mets and no one else.   Jeff McNeil ranks 5.   

Rounding out the top 9 are Bruce Boisclair, Rod Kanehl, and Ron Gardenhire.  Nimmo is about 6 full years behind Wright for 2^nd place and probably has the best chance of the active players of staying on this list. 

While this list is just the position players, you might ask “What about pitchers”?    There are actually two pitchers in the overall top 10 list – Pedro Feliciano was in 484 games across 9 years and Jeff Innis pitched in 288 games in 7 years. 

Drew Smith has pitched in 6 different years, compiling 191 games, just ahead of Bob Apodaca’s 184, both tucked in between Alvarez at 211 and Viento at 1974.  Smith is still active and Apodaca doesn’t make the cut of ‘career > 5 years’.   

I must admit that I had never given much thought to career Mets and was a little surprised when I read Charlie’s statement for the first time.   After pulling the list to see all of the players who played nowhere else, some names struck me as 'what could have been' - Seaver, Strawberry, Doc, Buddy, etc.    

One specific guy that I thought about was Cleon Jones.  I knew he played a long time with the Mets, but did not remember either where he came from or where he went after the Mets.   It turns out he was signed as an amateur free agent by the Mets and broke in with them in 1963.   

He played over 1200 games under the NY cap through 1975 when he was released mid-year.    He signed as a free agent with the Chicago White Sox in April 1976 and played just 12 games with them before being released in May, ending his career with 1201 games with the Mets and 12 with the Sox.    Almost!

Remember’s Rambling:  On a very related note

You have to wonder if Pete took any notice of the news last week that the Mets are going to retire David Wright’s #5 and honor him with the rest of the retired numbers.     Another few good years could get his #20 the same treatment.   

I don’t know that the Mets as a business would ever let him finish his career here – they certainly don’t want to commit more than 3 years to him now, but if he remains productive, will they extend him contracts as he approaches his mid to late 30s to try to attain some of those records and a potential Hall of Fame place as a career Met?    I have my doubts. 

If I am Pete, getting that number retired is a secondary reason to come back.   If there is any Mets offer on the table to hit behind JuanSoto, as well as OBP machine Brandon Nimmo and perennial all-star Francisco Lindor, why would I think twice $$??  

Perhaps I am just an old I/T guy that worked for 40 years in corporate America (for just one company!) making enough to feed my family, have a nice house and save a little for retirement, but I still struggle with the difference between $88M and $95M.      It seems that 88 should buy a nice mansion (or 2) wherever you want to be and have a couple of nice cars in the driveway(s).    

At some point it has to be about more than just the money - OMG, just sign the damn thing, play your butt off for the next three years and make it hard for them to jettison you off later.   There is no better opportunity to get to the World Series!     

                     Remember’s Reminiscing:   January 14 Birthdays

Ross Jones (65), Mike Pelfrey (41), Adam Kolarek (36), and Aaron Altherr (34) are all celebrating birthdays today.

The late Dave Marshall would have been 82 today.           

I'm out - stay safe and well - have a good week - pitchers and catchers in a month! 

Paul Articulates – Spring Training Priorities

The off-season is still upon us, with many rumors still flying about yet-to-be-signed players and speculative trade deals.  But it is not that far from the day when pitchers and catchers report, so Carlos Mendoza and his coaching staff are likely already planning their priority list for that brief six weeks before the season.

It is tough to know everything that will need to be aligned because there are still player movements in process, but if spring training were to start today, these are some of the things at the top of the list to be addressed:

1) Sort out the infield positions.  The seemingly endless Pete Alonso free agent period  has to be close to resolution.  If he returns to the club, there is less to do because he will be the first baseman.  Francisco Lindor is anchored at short.  The variables are at second and third base.

• Second base could be wide open.  Even if Jeff McNeil remains with the Mets, he may not be the opening day second baseman until the outfield rotation is determined.  David Stearns mentioned that Brett Baty has learned to play second, and he would not just let that slip if there were not a reason.  LuisAngel Acuna will certainly make a strong bid for the position coming off a strong debut last fall and some impressive work in Venezuela this winter.  Ronny Mauricio has to prove he is back from injury, and if he is not fighting for a job at third, he will be fighting for a job at second.  Could Jett Williams be a darkhorse candidate here?  He has impressed at every level until he was injured last year so it is too early to count him out.

• Third base could be Mark Vientos’ position if Pete re-signs.  If not, then things open up in a hurry.  Many of the same candidates above could also vie for a hot corner spot.  The Mets have also brought in Luis De Los Santos (Toronto) and Jared Young (Cubs) for infield depth and they will both look for an opportunity to be more than a utility player.

2) Start stretching out Clay Holmes.  Holmes impressed last year in a relief role with the Yankees, eventually ending up as their closer in the postseason.  It was announced when Holmes was signed that he would become a starter, but he has not started a game since 2018 with Pittsburgh so there are no guarantees here.  Mendoza and Jeremy Hefner are going to have to keep a close eye on how this develops so they don’t waste a good arm on a role that doesn’t fit.  Pitchers usually get off to a slower start than hitters in the spring, so it will take quite a few outings both in the backfields and in the exhibition games to determine the success of this experiment.

3) Develop a plan for long relief.  Last season started poorly, and part of the problem seemed to be the lack of a solution for short starts.  None of the starters were going longer than five innings, and the constant rotation of arms out of the bullpen stressed the entire staff.  Inevitably one of the several pitchers to take the mound would have an “off day”, leading to a 24-33 record by the end of May.  This year, expect the starters to once again be slow to acquire the strength to go deep into games, so have a long relief solution.  Could that be Tylor Megill and/or Jose Butto in long relief?  Is a healthy Max Kranick a solution?  The Mets will need 3-4 innings out of multiple long relievers to get through the month of April.  Who will it be?

4) Five-or-six man rotation?  Last year, and again this year, there is talk of a six man rotation to allow more rest for Kodai Senga.  Last year it was felt that he needed the extra day because it was more like what he experienced in Japan.  This year he is going to need the rest to ensure full recovery from an injury-filled 2024 season.  If the Mets win the Sasaki sweepstakes, they will have a second Japanese pitcher used to more rest that could drive a six-man rotation.  I am in favor of this approach, but it needs arms to support.  We just spoke of long relief help, and if you commit a couple arms to long relief it will be difficult to find an additional six starters.

Those are my top four priorities.  Of course there could be many different scenarios that could jumble the list based upon the remaining off-season activity.  But as it stands now this is what I would focus on.  So how will it turn out?  I’ll take a look in my crystal ball and make a few projections, for no other reason than to stimulate some discussion in the comments:

1) Paul Predicts: Pete signs, Vientos locks down at third, and LuisAngel takes the starting 2B position to create a very strong middle-infield combination with Lindor.  McNeil starts in right field because the Mets decide to use Marte as the DH. 

2) Paul Predicts: Clay Holmes starts a few games in April but it does not go well because he abandons the max effort pitches to maintain the stamina to pitch more innings.  Batters are very appreciative of the change and cash in.  With an ugly ERA, Holmes is back in the bullpen by May.  This is not entirely a bad thing unless there are health problems with the other starters.

3) Paul Predicts: The Mets begin with only Tylor Megill in a long-relief role.  They open with 13 pitchers on the roster.  Starters: Senga, Sasaki, Manaea, Peterson, Montas, and Holmes.  Diaz is the closer. That leaves five short relievers on the staff: Butto, Garrett, Reid-Foley, Nunez, and Danny Young.

4) Paul Predicts: The six-man rotation is established at the onset, but does not survive Holmes’ move to the pen.  Megill, Butto, and Blackburn all get a few starts, but the Mets need to win, so they revert to a five man rotation on May 16 when they begin a road trip in the Bronx.

Reese Kaplan -- Who Is Going to Be the Mets' DH?

Some folks feel I am overly negative about the roster stagnation.  

Perhaps it is true, but I am also a professionally trained project manager whose certification requires people to execute Plan A while simultaneously having Plans B, C and D fully fleshed out and ready to implement if for any reason Plan A cannot happen. 

Now I don’t know Steve Cohen nor David Stearns personally and it is certainly entirely possible that they are taking this approach.  Both are highly successful at what they do, but the one inarguable point is that the pool of talent is getting smaller day by day.  

When you read about key players coming off the board while the Mets have not reinforced their roster, well, the frustration and confusion are certainly reasonable reactions.

Today let’s examine on a positive front how the Mets can enhance their approach to the Designated Hitter which has pretty much been a black hole for the franchise since the National League adopted the rule that the American League has long embraced. 

It’s not necessary to study in detail the numbers produced by the likes of Darin Ruf, Daniel Vogelbach and many others.  Last year was a slight improvement with an off year from D.H. extraordinaire J.D. Martinez and his left handed platoon partner Jesse Winker, but their aggregate production was not All Star level by any means.

As the roster stands right now, the D.H. choices are numerous but not necessarily exciting.  Probably leading the list is Starling Marte who has struggled to stay healthy during the first three years of his four year deal.  As he ages as a ballplayer who relies heavily on his legs for his offensive production is banking on both turning 36 and fighting injuries to keep this aspect of his game positive.  

He had 20 HR power earlier in his career but topped out at 16 as a Mets newcomer in 2022.  In 2023 and 2024 combined he his just 13.  His batting average his slipped as well from a career number of .286 which he exceeded by 6 points in 2022, then down to .248 and .269 the next few years.  Since his defensive game was once solid but has also weakened, the idea of Designated Hitter could make sense if he indeed could provide star level offense.  Whether or not he can is a matter of debate.

Next on the list could be other reserve players.  If Tyrone Taylor is starting it leaves Jose Siri.  Or flip the coin.  Neither of them have shown the ability to be consistent starters in the majors, let alone Designated Hitters.  Backup catcher Luis Torrens doesn’t seem appropriate in this mix either. 

Then you have the younger but not yet proven players hoping to come north with the team.  Luisangel Acuna has power and speed, but there are questions about his batting average given his substandard AAA year in 2024.  

Ronny Mauricio also had speed and has power but no one is sure how well hi knee will be to allow him to resume 20+ stolen bases.  He did hit .292 in a recent full minor league season but he’s never been known as a high average type of guy.  It is predicted he could develop 30 HR power which combined with speed could make him an interesting choice but the jury’s still out on his health and the rust that comes from having missed an entire year.

So as you see, there is not a lot in the exiting inventory of possible Designated Hitters.  It is for this reason you are starting to hear noise about the Mets being interested in bringing Jesse Winker back.  Do bear in mind that in his best ever year Winker made the All Star team in 2021 when for the year he hit .305 with 24 home runs and 71 RBIs.  

That season was clearly the exception as his career average dropped to .262 and his run production numbers stagnated.  He’s an OK player as a member of the bench but overall doesn’t seem like he’d be any better than Starling Marte at DH. 

Now much more interesting players do exist who could fill this role.  Anthony Santander does have a QO attached to him but it’s hard not to be interested in someone who hit 44 HRs and drove in over 100 runs last year and also is a switch hitter.  That kind of productivity combined with Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Mark Vientos and hopefully a returning Pete Alonso would be pretty lethal to other teams.  

Bounce back years from Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil would make the Mets even more dangerous to opponents.  Obviously he’s going to cost over $20 million per year and the question remains for how many seasons will he consider a minimum?

Still unsigned Jurickson Profar had a career year in 2024 yet the Padres made no effort to retain him.  Did he finally emerge and turn into the player he’d always been projected to be or was it a matter of a single good year for which he expects to be overpaid in the future?

There’s a pretty steep drop-off in the free agent marketplace of unsigned players who have not yet been secured by the 29 other teams actively seeking to strengthen their rosters.  When all else fails, J.D. Martinez and Daniel Vogelbach are still unemployed, too.

There’s always the trade market... 

2025 Draft Prospect - LHP - Cade Fischer - Auburn

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2024/11/7/2025-mlb-draft-top-sec-prospects-part-2   -

LHP Cade Fisher - Auburn

Prospects Live Ranking: #44

After two up-and-down seasons at Florida, Cade Fisher arrives at Auburn with heightened expectations. After going 6-0 with a 3.10 ERA in 49.1 innings as a freshman in Gainesville, Fisher saw his numbers plummet as a sophomore, going 4-3 with a 7.13 ERA in 59.1 innings. He struggled with command and control and an inconsistent release height that must be addressed to succeed in 2025. He threw 5.2 innings for the Cotuit Kettleers on the Cape this past summer, and only gave up one earned run while striking out six. The low-slot southpaw features a low 90s fastball with slight carry and a devastating low-80s sweeping slider that has the potential to be his best pitch. He also has a changeup that he hides well and should see his draft stock rise with a bounceback season at Auburn in 2025. 

 

https://floridagators.com/sports/baseball/roster/cade-fisher/16369 -

 

2024 (Sophomore):

 

Pitched in 26 games while making nine starts for the Gators

Went 4-3 with one save and a 7.13 ERA

Struck out 76 batters and walk 29 across 59 1/3 innings of work

Fanned 11.5 batters per nine innings

Posted a .282 batting average against

Pitched in the weekend rotation as the game one starter across the first-five weeks of the campaign

Struck out a career-high 10 batters without issuing a walk, scattering five hits and allowing two earned runs over five frames to earn the victory over Columbia on Feb. 23

Posted another 10-strikeout outing en route to picking up the win over Texas A&M on March 15

Allowed one earned run across 3 1/3 innings of relief on two hits and three walks while striking out five in the win against Mississippi State on March 29

Threw 4 2/3 combined innings of scoreless relief against Florida A&M and Missouri on April 2 and 5, striking out nine and walking just one batter

Contributed 1 2/3 scoreless frames out of the bullpen vs. South Carolina on April 12

Earned the victory with 2 2/3 shutout innings of relief vs. USF on May 7, giving up just one hit and striking out one

Pitched one perfect inning of relief on two strikeouts in the Stillwater Regional victory against Nebraska on June 2

Committed one error on the season over 12 defensive chances and finished with a .917 fielding percentage on the hill

 

https://gatorswire.usatoday.com/2024/07/13/florida-baseball-cade-fisher-transfer-portal-auburn-tigers/ -

Florida transfer Cade Fisher announced his commitment to the Auburn Tigers on Saturday.

Fisher leaves Florida after two seasons. The first established him as one of the 2023 freshman class’ best arms, but he struggled to fit into the starting rotation as a sophomore. From a draft standpoint, he’s still one of the top arms in the 2025 class, but Fisher needs to prove that he can return to form first.

Auburn beat out LSU, Tennessee and Wake Forest, among other schools. Staying in the SEC gives Fisher the best chance to up his draft stock. The expectation is for him to start on the weekends for the Tigers despite a clear comfortability out of the bullpen.