Breaking News - Luke Weaver is a Met - Deal Still to be Confirmed

 

BIG PEN UPGRADE!!

Just reported by David Adler and Anthony DiComo:

“The Mets are adding another high-leverage arm to their bullpen. And it’s another face familiar to New Yorkers.

“The team on Wednesday agreed to terms on a two-year, $22 million deal with right-hander Luke Weaver, a source told MLB.com. Weaver, who spent time setting up Devin Williams and also closing in the Bronx last season, will reunite with his old teammate in Queens. The club has not confirmed the deal, which is pending a physical.””

RVH - The Mets Didn’t Lose Because They Didn’t Score

Run prevention, not offense, was the binding constraint in the 2025 season

The Business Case for Run Prevention

The Mets didn’t lose in 2025 because they failed to score. They lost because when run prevention broke, it broke catastrophically.

That distinction matters. Teams don’t win by maximizing every input. They win by identifying the binding constraint and allocating resources accordingly. For the 2025 Mets, offense wasn’t the constraint. Volatility in run prevention was.

Once you look at the season through that lens, both the results and the offseason strategy make a lot more sense.

---

Offense Is a Threshold, Not a Lever

Let’s start with runs scored.

When the Mets scored six or more runs, they won roughly 86 percent of the time. Push that to nine or more runs and the win rate climbed above 94 percent. In other words, once the offense cleared a basic threshold, additional runs added diminishing marginal value.

That’s what a plateau looks like. The sixth run matters a lot. The seventh and eighth matter far less. By the time you get to nine, you’re mostly piling on insurance.

This isn’t a critique of the offense. It’s an acknowledgement that the Mets already crossed the offensive threshold often enough. Scoring more was not the fastest way to add wins.

---

Run Prevention Is a Cliff

Now look at runs allowed.

When the Mets allowed two runs or fewer, they won 93 percent of the time. At three to five runs allowed, games became coin flips. But once runs allowed hit six, win probability collapsed. Allow six to eight runs and the Mets won barely one out of five. Allow nine or more and wins nearly disappeared.

That is not a plateau. That is a cliff.

Here’s the asymmetry that defines the season: the marginal value of the seventh run scored is far smaller than the marginal cost of the seventh run allowed. One operates on a smooth curve. The other operates near a failure threshold.

In a compressed win curve, that difference dominates everything else.

---

Why “Six Runs and Still Lose” Isn’t a Mystery

This is where frustration usually sets in. Fans remember games where the Mets scored six, seven, even nine runs and still lost, and conclude something went wrong.

But the structural map tells a different story.

When the Mets scored six to eight runs and allowed six to eight runs, they won only about one-third of the time. When they allowed nine or more runs, even elite offense stopped mattering. There is no scoring level that reliably rescues a defensive collapse.

Those games aren’t flukes. They’re predictable outcomes once run prevention crosses a narrow tolerance band.

High-scoring losses feel shocking only if you assume offense and defense trade off symmetrically. They don’t.

---

The Rational Allocation Problem

This is where baseball starts to look like any other business operating under nonlinear risk.

If your downside costs accelerate faster than your upside gains, the rational strategy isn’t to chase more upside. It’s to insure the downside.

For the Mets, that means:

• Fewer blow-up innings

• Fewer cascading failures

• Fewer games that spiral from competitive to unwinnable in two batters

Turning a collapse game into a coin-flip game is worth more than turning a win into a bigger win.  That’s the business case for run prevention.

---

Reading the Offseason Through This Lens

Seen this way, the Mets’ offseason doesn’t look like a retreat from offense or star power. It looks like a deliberate reallocation toward system stability.

Power hitters matter — but not once you’ve already cleared the scoring threshold. Elite closers matter — but not if volatility upstream keeps pushing games into collapse zones before they ever enter.

Defense, durability, bullpen depth, and damage containment don’t always show up in highlight reels, but they directly reduce exposure to the most expensive outcomes on the win curve.

This isn’t about winning prettier. It’s about losing less violently.

---

The Real Goal for 2026

The objective isn’t to score fewer runs. It’s to break less.

If the Mets can shave even a handful of games out of the “six-plus runs allowed” bucket, the math says the wins will follow. Not because the team suddenly got more talented, but because it stopped stepping off a cliff.

That’s what disciplined organizations do. They don’t chase noise. They fix constraints.

In a league where the margins are thin and the curves are compressed, run prevention isn’t philosophy. It is a strategy.

Tom Brennan: Don't Be Afraid to Trade Prospects BEFORE They Fizzle

 Good Guy Matt den Dekker Fizzled - Like So Many Do 

Sometimes, you see Mets prospects, guys who are on fire in the minors, and expect that they will translate that success over to the big leagues in terms of further real success. 

Sometimes, those prospects even have a good stretch when they debut.

But then they fizzle and sometimes fizzle hard…

Two such former Mets prospects were fifth rounder Matt Dan Dekker, and eighth rounder Eric Campbell, both now 38 years old.

In 2014, Matt DD had a smoking stretch in Las Vegas. 

In AAA, in 93 games, he scored 70 runs and hit .334/.407.540.  Sizzled.

In the majors, he hit a decent .250, with a .345 OBP in 152 Mets at bats that year.

In 2016, he hit .296 in AAA, and in 99 Mets at bats, he hit a nice .253/.315/.485 with your NY Mets.

Then…he fizzled and cratered thereafter.  Success was fleeting.

 SOMETIMES BIG AAA BATTING STATS ARE MISLEADING

Eric the Red Campbell hit .314 in 120 Las Vegas AAA games in 2013.

Then, he came out in AAA like a surging laser in 2014.  In 33 games there, he crushed it at .355/.442/.525. Wow.

Promoted to the Mets, he started hot, cooled off late, and hit .263/.322/.358 in 211 plate appearances. Nice year.

In 2015, in 33 games, smoked it at .363 in AAA.

But, with the Mets in 2015, he hit just .197 in 206 plate appearances.  

And was never the same thereafter. They caught up to him.

A career .290 hitter in 979 minors games, and yet he too experienced only brief and fleeting MLB success.

Morale of that story? 

Prospects may do well, and greatly entice your interest, and they may even do well enough to have brief success at the major league level.  

But it is a very, very difficult game to play at the highest level. So it did not make sense to wear rose colored glasses as far as Matt or Eric were concerned. 

How many of the current Mets hitting prospects will fall into the same category, or even fall short of the limited success at the major league level that these two gentlemen had, such as happened with former Mets first rounder Gavin Cecchini?

Food for thought.

My brother Steve? 

In most cases, what does he say about those non-elite prospects?

TRADE THEM. FOR BONA FIDE PROVEN STUDS. 

Don’t wait for their value to diminish. Many don’t pan out.

Think of SPINDLY, speedy Alex Ramirez, as an example.  

As a 19 year old, he sizzled, but then he turned 20 and fizzled. At 19, he was an attractive trade chip. Then he dipped. Now he is just chipped.

Maybe Ronny Mo should have been traded years back? 

Food for thought. You may still think he might sizzle.

Think back to when Amed Rosario was the top MLB prospect in all of baseball at one point. He has since had a somewhat decent career, with 10.2 career WAR, but probably could have fetched far more value for the Mets in a trade at the point of his #1 ranking than he has provided value as a major leaguer so far.  

Jarred Kelenic?  Thankfully, he was dealt early, Shirley.  

He looked strong enough in his rookie ball debut in 2018, at .286/.371/.468, but either someone in the Mets FO saw flaws (his K rate was a bit high) and so included him in the trade deal that winter, or Seattle simply demanded him and the Mets acquiesced, but it sure worked out.

Kelenic had a simply brutal 2025 season in the Braves organization (AAA and MLB). Anyone out there saying, “what a mistake it was trading HIM!”

No. Didn’t think so. 

His career MLB WAR is a comatose 0.2. 

The Mets used him as a key piece in the 2018 off season to get FORMER MET fireballer and current traitor Edwin Diaz.  

Sixth overall pick Kelenic?

He has been a real bust, according to baseball bust expert Mae West.

Don’t fear PROSPECT trades. Embrace them. 

Get rid of flawed guys pre-bust.

Prospect players are…

Commodities.  David's inventory. 

So...figure out the future fizzlers now. Sell high. Book profits. Move on. 

Last prospect point….no one who writes on our site ranks the Mets’ farm system vs. all 29 others in detail. Such a lot of work.  

Some rambunctious Mets fans may feel the Mets system is #1. 

Prospects 1500 (see link below), though, has the Mets system at #6.  

#6?  Very good, but…

Probably far inferior to the #1 Brewers talent.  So….

Be excited to be #6 - but be objective, too. 

Be ready to DEAL.  

The future for us aging Mets multi-decade followers is right now.

https://www.prospects1500.com/milb/2025-end-of-season-farm-system-rankings-the-top-15/

MLB TRADE RUMORS NOTED THIS JUST HOURS AGO:

The Mets are informing teams that corner infielder/designated hitter Mark Vientos is available in trade conversations, writes Jorge Castillo of ESPN. 

That aligns with reporting from Will Sammon of The Athletic, who wrote last night that the Mets were willing to discuss each of Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña.

 - ME? I'M JUST WAITING FOR THE RUMORED BIG TRADE...

FINALLY...

On a personal note, it is my 43rd anniversary today with my terrific wife Susan.  We both have A no-trade clause in our contract...'TIL DEATH DO YOU PART.

43 years is a long time, but that was only 4 years prior to the last Mets championship in 1986, which had its 39th anniversary this year.  That is a mighty long time, too.

The Dodgers want to make that 139 years.  

Can Cohen and Stearns disrupt that dynasty?

Reese Kaplan -- David Stearns Still Has a Lot of Work To Do

As the off season progresses the Mets fans are getting a bit antsy watching top tier players leave while strong but not equivalent hitters get added.  Nothing has been done about pitching other than Devin Williams who is theoretically the new Edwin Diaz.  Nothing has been done at first base, left field nor center field.

There are lots of way for things to happen moving forward.  Rumors were swirling that the Mets were making a very long term contract offer to Framber Valdez who is indeed a star pitcher but is it the best use of capital resources to hook yourself to someone who might be 38 or 39 by  the time to deal ends.  Witness the multiple injuries experienced by former Mets Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer to see how well those nearing 40 starting pitchers fare.

The other hot rumor was Michael King.  Aside from the obvious former Yankee connection and the reliever turned starter change mirroring what current Met starter (and also former Yankee) Clay Holmes has done.  The issue here is not a doubt of the man’s ability.  His numbers have been outstanding.  The concern is durability.  He only appeared in 15 games in 2025 and his high water mark came the year before when he made 30 starts.  He has appeared in as many as 49 games as a reliever but given the Mets horror show with pitching injuries this past year it is curious to lock yourself into someone still recovering. 

Many people are working up lists of who will stay and who will go if they instead execute trades to fill the roster.  We’ve heard the Kodai Senga and David Peterson rumors as most definitely available which is somewhat odd given that they are working on a thin starting rotation as it is.  Still, you have to give to get and both of these players have very high or moderately solid reputations as major league hurlers with a modest price for a 3.00 career ERA pitcher like Senga and a very low price on the not yet free agent eligible lefty Peterson would indeed make them desirable. 

Then there are the other offensive players whose names come up again and again.  Jeff McNeil is surely on this list but crazy rumors leaked about Francisco Lindor and early Tarik Skubal trade packages included Francisco Alvarez. 

The toughest part is deciding who in the farm system is part of the Mets future and who is part of a trade arsenal to appeal to other ball clubs.  Obviously they’re not offering up Nolan McLean in any deals, but after that it gets murkier.  Jonah Tong is arguably the most interesting one on which they can make a deal or sit tight.  His minor league numbers would make other GMs drool despite his 7.00+ ERA in his September major league failed trial.  Brandon Sproat is perhaps analogous to former Met Craig Swan whose career ended with a 3.74 ERA.  The problem with Sproat is that he goes between stellar and merely average, never fully embracing either level of performance. 

On the offensive side Carson Benge is said to be off limits given his moderate power, base running speed and ability to man center field. Jett Williams is even faster and may have his top slot usurped with the double play combo in place and his AAA performance not quite up to a starting major league level.  Ryan Clifford has good power but he needs more time at AAA to improve his batting average lest he become another Lucas Duda. 

Lower level prospects are in play as well but likely don’t hold quite as high a value on the open market since they won’t impact the acquiring team in 2026  Still, there are a great many there to help sweeten prospective packages.

For now everyone is waiting for the other shoes to begin to drop.

Steve Sica- "You Maniacs! You blew it up!"

If George Taylor’s character in Planet of the Apes was a Mets fan and saw everything that’s happened in the last week, I can picture him dropping to his knees and screaming that iconic line in the middle of Citi Field.

The Mets did indeed “blow it up” as in their core group of players, in less than a month, three of the more popular and iconic Met players of the 2020s will call somewhere else home in 2026. Losing both Edwin Diaz and Pete Alonso in the span of about 24 hours was especially tough to swallow. Baseball is a business; players come and go. This was a franchise that traded away Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, and future MVP Kevin Mitchell. Mind you, the latter two were very hindsight 20/20 trades. 

Still, though, in an era where players often don’t stay on one team their whole career, you got the sense that Brandon Nimmo would’ve been that guy for the Mets. At the same time, Pete Alonso leaving after just setting the franchise record for home runs a mere four months ago is another gut punch for this fanbase. When it came out that the Mets didn’t even make Alonso an offer, it seemed like a slap in the face to him and to the fans who have rooted for the Polar Bear since his sensational rookie season back in 2019.

Pete loved being a Met, loved playing at Citi Field, and of course coined the phrase “LFGM.” It’ll be downright bizarre seeing him in an Orioles uniform when the 2026 season gets going. Edwin Diaz felt a bit more expected that he’d be gone. Once the Mets signed Devin Williams to a multiyear deal, the writing was on the wall. Like Alonso, Diaz began his Met tenure in 2019, but that’s where the similarities end. Diaz had a horrific 2019, and by late that summer, lost the closer role altogether. He righted the ship a bit in 2020 and 2021, but it wasn’t until 2022 that the Mets began to turn the page on Diaz. 

With Timmy Trumpets blaring and arguably the best bullpen walkout environment in baseball, Diaz endeared himself to the New York fans like so many have before him by winning with style. In 2024, the two most significant moments of that season were Alonso’s Wild Card go-ahead home run in game three in Milwaukee and Diaz striking out Kyle Schwarber in the NLDS to give the Mets their first-ever series-clinching victory at Citi Field. Both those players will be gone for the 2026 Home Opener.

If you’ve been on social media this week, you’ll see it’s littered with fans denouncing their Met fandom, threatening to boycott Citi Field, and ready to bury the Mets management alive. Taking a moment to calm things down and playing devil's advocate to all that. On paper, these departures may seem rough, but let’s examine the history that this core has shared together. In five years, the Mets have had one deep playoff run, no pennants, no World Series titles, more disappointing and underachieving than successful. 2025 was the final straw. You can’t have a payroll second to the Dodgers and miss the playoffs altogether while watching LA win another championship.

Heads needed to roll after the collapse the Mets had to end this past season. Are these the right heads? Who knows? But the core needed to be shaken up. David Stearns clearly wants to put his stamp on this team. The farm system is one of the best in baseball. Steve Cohen still has seemingly infinite money to spend, especially with the casino deal coming in earlier this month. These moves hurt right now, but the Mets may need to tear it down to build it back up better.

All I’m saying is that before you shred your season tickets, burn your Met jerseys, and cancel your subscription to SNY, there's still a lot of offseason to go. A free agent acquisition like Kyle Tucker would jolt this offense back to being one of the best in the National League. The farm system is loaded with potential impact hitters and pitchers. I know, you’ve heard that line before, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll pan out, but it's certainly the brightest the Met future has looked in at least a decade. 

There are exactly 100 days until Opening Day. Still time to reshape this roster, and I’m reminded of what Steve Cohen said when he first bought the Mets. He wants sustained success, not just catching lightning in the bottle. He has yet to achieve it. The Mets still haven’t been in back-to-back postseasons since the days of Terry Collins and Sandy Alderson back in 2015-16. They haven’t won a division in over a decade, and in the Steve Cohen era, they’ve won just two playoff series.’

David Stearns wanted his fingerprints all over this Met team. He’s got it. Now the proof of the pudding is in the eating. The Stearns era has unofficially begun (it technically started two years ago). Let’s see how it goes down in history.

MACK. - DIRTY LAUNDRY

 

What's The Plan, Stan?

 

So, what the hell just happened?

Did Cohen/Stearns & Co. invent a new way to follow my previous recommendation to target this team to 2027?

Yes, the combined 2025 salaries of Alonso, Nimmo, and Soto were already off my worksheet. They represented a reduction $72,000,000.

What wasn't in the projection were any plans for both Pete and Edwin to take their skills elsewhere.

We also need to remember that we added the 2026 salary of Marcus Semien ($25.000,000).

I also just added Jorge Polanco.

And, there are other additions:

    Injured Player Replacements:    $5,544,000

    0-3 year players in majors:        $6,336.000

    0-3 year players in minors:       $2,669,800

    Pre-ARB bonus pool:                  $1,666,667

    Estimated player benefits:      $18,000,000 

This raises my current 2026 salaries to a still whopping $315,900,865, far past any chance of getting below the penalty level.

Oh well.

Tom Brennan: Available Off Season Produce to Restock Citi Mets Mart

HOW DOES METS HEAD HONCHO DAVID STEARNS RESTOCK THE METS’ SHELVES TO END UP WITH MORE, AND NOT LESS, IN 2026?

AVAILABLE OFF SEASON PRODUCE AT YOUR LOCAL CITI MART

So...

Pete is gone

And Edwin is gone

And Nimmo is gone

And Helsley is gone

And Rogers is gone

And a bunch of other 2025 Mets were cut loose or will miss 2026.

Lots to restock.  

Pretty daunting, huh?

So what are we gonna do? Cry in our beer? Are we mice, or are we men?

The Mets already got Marcus Semien and Jorge Polanco. 

Shopping cart, to register, to roster. Easy.

Here are some of the names still out there to Phil D. Roster.  

(THE PRODUCE INCLUDES POSSIBLE TRADE AND FREE AGENT TARGETS.)

Go ahead, dear readers, roll up your sleeves; finish buildpmg us a team. 

Heaven knows I am too lazy to do it so, being an expert administrator, I am designating this lovely task to you.

But hurry - I hear the produce is flying off the shelves. 

Pick quickly.  And beautifully.  Like nothing we've ever seen.

And some shopkeepers drive very hard bargains...bring brass knuckles.  

of course, what must you give up to get your inventory restock?  

Let us know.

FIRST BASE AND INFIELD

Willson Contreras    

Cody Bellinger (outfield, too.  Guy is good.)

Paul Goldschmidt

Munetaka Murakami

Kazuma Okamoto

Fernando Tatis (outfield, too.  Guy is good.)

OUTFIELD

Ramon Laureano

Kyle Tucker

Lars Nootbaar

Jarren Duran

Brenton Doyle

Luis Robert

STARTERS

Tatsuya Imai

Michael King

Tarik Skubal

Ranger Suarez

Framber Valdez

Joe Ryan

Freddy Peralta

MacKenzie Gore

Edward Cabrera

Tyler Glasgow

BULLPEN

Trevor Megill

Pete Fairbanks

(Readers may add more names here)

(Cue in the Monkees, singing, I'm a Reliever, I'm gonna save it, if I try.)  

(If Stearns messes this up, put him on The Last Train to Clarksville?)

Of course, there are rumors of a BIG one - per the Athletic and MLB: 

0:00

10:46

"Could one of MLB’s preeminent flamethrowers be on the move … again?

According to a report from The Athletic, Mason Miller’s name has come up in trade talks between the Padres and Mets, with New York also said to be discussing starter Nick Pivettaand relievers Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon with San Diego.

The Padres, who acquired Miller from the Athletics less than five months ago, are reportedly enticed by the Mets’ top prospects -- both pitchers and position players -- as well as some of their young Major Leaguers.

The Athletic's report notes that superstars Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr. are not among those being discussed by the two teams."

Naturally, if a deal of this magnitude would happen, the Mets would be surrendering plenty in return.

My brother Steve hears "Mason Miller", the ultimate fireballer, and says, "DO IT!"