Good morning.
One of last two prediction pieces here. Today, the major league player
predictions and then Thursday morning, opening day, my overall thoughts on how
the team will do.
First up, the pitchers.
My Starter Of Year first has to be addressed by the reduction of starters
that I think will pitch themselves out of any chance of receiving this award. Kodai Senga is going to start off on a pitch count and, my prediction
is he’s not done winding up on the IL. In addition, I love what I’m seeing from
our new members of the rotation, but this award goes to the steady, Eddie of
this rotation… David Peterson. I
even think there is a chance he will play in the All-Star game this year. That’s
how big I am on him.
My Reliever Of The Year goes out to a new addition on the team. A.J. Minter. He’s still amping up so I don’t look for anything
dominant here in April. Still, over the entire season, my prediction is he will
be putting pressure on Edwin Diaz for the closer role come the future.
My Runner-up Bat Of The Year Because We All Know Who The Bat Of The Year Will
Be is a favorite of mine since he was drafted out of powerhouse American
Heritage HS (FL). Mark Vientos. My guess is he is going to take advantage of the fact
that opposing pitchers will try not to embarrass themselves when the new Mets
right-fielder steps up to the plate, which will create a situation that they
will have to pitch more to players like Vientos. I see big dividends for the
Florida boy.
My Rookie Of The Year goes to someone I’m not sure still qualifies as a
rookie, but, what the hell, this is my column. Brett Baty. Yes, Baty is having a strong spring, but my guess is he
will prove doubters wrong and make Jeff McNeil put his second base mitt on the
shelf when he returns from the IL.
Regarding disappointments, I don’t deal with that until Thursday.
Isaac @isaacgroffman
Excited
to dig into this new data!
In 2024 Francisco Lindor moved deeper in the box (both sides)
and farther from the plate (as a lefty), his wRC+ jumped from 121 to 137
Really
small changes, probably not on purpose, but cool to see
Quickest
jumps from Draft to Opening Day roster in baseball history
https://www.mlb.com/news/hitters-who-made-opening-day-roster-the-quickest-after-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
John Olerud, 1990 Blue Jays (6 games)
After
becoming the first NCAA Division I player to record 20 homers and 15 victories
in the same season in 1988 at Washington State, Olerud wasn't at his best the
following spring after having surgery to remove an aneurysm at the base of his
brain. Though he told teams he planned on returning to college, the Blue Jays
took him in the third round and signed him in late August for a record $575,000
bonus as part of an $800,000 big league contract. They immediately promoted him
to the Majors, where he went 3-for-8, launching a 17-year career that included
a pair of World Series rings, a batting title with Toronto, two All-Star Game
berths and three Gold Gloves.
Ranking
all 30 MLB teams’ Opening Day lineups:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6225735/2025/03/24/mlb-lineups-ranked-dodgers-braves-opening-day/
4. New
York Mets
Juan Soto, the Mets’ $765 million superstar, singlehandedly changed the complexion
of this lethal lineup. The top half of the Mets’ lineup is special with
shortstop Francisco Lindor, who finished second
in the NL MVP voting and was a stolen base shy of a 30/30 season; Soto, who has
a career .421 on-base percentage; Pete Alonso,
who is good for 35 to 40 homers a season; and Mark
Vientos, who broke out with 27 bombs last year. Catcher Francisco Alvarez will start the year on the IL with a
broken hamate bone in his left hand but still has 25-30 home run power and
breakout potential.
Tim
Healey @timbhealey
Jett Williams will open the season with Double-A Binghamton, David Stearns said on SNY.
-
Mack: smart move… the
kid really didn’t play that much at this level last season. It also leaves the
Syracuse shortstop position open for LuisAngel Acuna if the Mets decide to
place him there. Otherwise, Donathan Walton will be the AAA
starter. Blocked at Binghamton is William Lugo who will probably open
up for Brooklyn.
Thomas
Nestico @TJStats
Jonah Tong already had one of the best fastballs in MiLB. If he can sustain these
velocity gains we are taking about one of the best pitching prospects in
baseball!
Blade Tidwell - NYM
Tidwell
struggled in AAA last season due to command issues and declining stuff, but he
looked on another level this Spring. His velocity bump helped pave the way for
an immaculate inning!
Mets
Prospect Group @bkfan09
Lot of
Top Mets People At The DSL Academy today.
To see the $5M teenager Elian Peña ...
Mets also having a workout with a prospect in the 2026 and 2025 classes
Mets’
Brett Baty no longer a prospect, but hope remains: ‘He’s gotta go out and do
it’
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6223536/2025/03/23/mets-brett-baty-expectations/
(sub only)
Baty is
again in a good position for an opportunity. This time, will he seize it?
There’s plenty at stake. Baty holds just one minor-league option. In addition
to Jeff McNeil looming as the incumbent second
baseman, prospects such as Luisangel Acuña, Jett Williams and Ronny
Mauricio are on Baty’s heels. He needs to perform when it matters. It’ll
either be the kind of season that required years in the making or one that
started with another false spring.
Eno Sarris’ updated MLB starting pitcher rankings for the
2025 season
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6211367/2025/03/21/sarris-mlb-starting-pitcher-rankings-fantasy-baseball/
#39
- Kodai
Senga
104
Stuff+
3.43
ppERA
He
pitched some in the postseason, so it might be easy to forget that Kodai Senga
missed all but five innings of the regular season in 2024. Was he even healthy
when he came back? It was 94-ish on the fastball in the playoffs, but in short
bursts and with poor results. You can put an up arrow on the back of this Ghost
Fork slinger if he's healthy in the spring, but the health rating here will
still be barely passing at best. If you were conservative with your first
couple of starters though, Senga represents good upside with that arsenal, in
that park, with that offense behind him.
#46 Clay Holmes
124
Stuff+
3.48
ppERA
Without
adding to his arsenal, Clay Holmes can probably be a successful starting
pitcher based on his super-sinker and great two-breaking-ball arsenal. He'll
keep the ball on the ground and in the park, and double plays will help clean
up some weaknesses against lefties and the occasional bout of poor command. But
in the playoffs, the righty showed a four-seamer that had more ride than he'd
ever had on the pitch before. Even a league-average fastball would raise the
celing on this conversion by giving him more whiffs and fewer walks against
righties.
Bowden’s 2025 All-MLB Breakout Team: A 26-man roster of
promising players to watch
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6219550/2025/03/21/mlb-breakout-predictions-2025/
Francisco Alvarez, Mets
Age: 23
Bats: R
Throws: R
Height:
5-10 Weight: 233
Earlier
in spring training, I predicted that Alvarez would make his first All-Star team
and hit at least 30 home runs this year. But then he fractured a hamate bone in
his left hand and will start the season on the injured list, which might keep
him from ticking off those accomplishments in 2025. However, that won’t stop me
from predicting a breakout for Alvarez. He’s one of the hardest-working young
players in the game, always striving to get better. The Mets’ pitching staff
loves to pitch to him because of those traits. He’s also fortunate to be in a
lineup with stars such as Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, which gives him the
opportunity to learn from some of the best in the game.
Seven New
York Mets minor league arms to watch in 2025
https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/seven-new-york-mets-minor-league-arms-to-watch-in-2025
3. Jonah Tong, RHP [No. 6 ranked Mets prospect]
Jonah
Tong, a 21-year-old right-hander, had a strong 2024 campaign, where he posted a
3.03 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 160 strikeouts across 113 innings (25 appearances, 23
starts). Tong finished his year by making his final two starts for Double-A
Binghamton, which is where he will likely begin his 2025 season.
Tong
started the Mets' Spring Breakout game on Sunday and notched two scoreless
innings. He throws a 96-97 mph fastball, has a curveball and hard
cutter/changeup. Tong is now the Mets' No. 6 prospect, per MLB Pipeline, and
could make his way to the majors by 2026 if he remains on track.
Just
Baseball - New York Mets Top 15 Prospects
https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/new-york-mets-top-15-prospects/?s=03
Other
Names to Consider
Jacob Reimer – 3B – (High-A): After a solid first pro season in 2023, Reimer missed
most of the 2024 season with a hamstring issue before being sent to the Arizona
Fall League for additional reps. A third baseman by trade, Reimer saw some
action in left field in the AFL and has played some first base as well. Nothing
jumps off of the page tools wise, but Reimer has an good feel to hit and great
approach with potentially more power in the tank.
Jeremy Rodriguez – SS/2B – (Low-A): Bottom-of-the-scale power limits Rodriguez
(his average exit velocity was 83.8 MPH in 2024), but he is still extremely
young with strong baseline abilities. While he projects best at second base,
Rodriguez is capable of playing shortstop. His contact skills are comfortably
above average and he won’t expand the zone much.
With just
average speed, much of Rodriguez’s value will come from his ability to get on
base, but it would surely help if he could improve upon his 20-grade power as
he enters his age-19 season.
Medium -
The Really Big 2025 Mets Prospects Ranking
https://medium.com/@mdonodeo8/the-really-big-2025-mets-prospects-ranking-5c0fbaaa49f0
14) Eli Serrano II
Serrano
had a similar profile in the draft to Benge, albeit with less raw power and the
profile moving the opposite direction over the course of the season than Benge
— it was flagged to me post-draft that the contact rates fell some in
conference play before shooting back up in his very strong playoffs. That said,
the profile was still centered around making a good amount of contact, drawing
walks (albeit being too passive), and hoping that the exit velocities would
come as he filled out his lanky frame and made some swing tweaks. The biggest
change he made post-draft was simply swinging with more intent than he did in
college. This led to a slight drop in zone contact, but more importantly, a big
reduction in chase contact, which could increase swinging strike rates but lead
to better results on contact. The contact rates are still fine, and the power
increased a decent bit already. A good rule of thumb is to remove 4 ticks of
exit velo as a player moves from metal to wood bats, but Serrano didn’t see this
reduction in his pro stint. His EV90 dropped a tick to 102.9, his max EV
dropped a couple ticks to 108.9, and his average EV actually gained 0.1 mph
from his college season. On top of these EV gains, the launch angles were much
better, potentially due to making less contact on bad pitches — he posted a
sub-40% ground ball rate, a sweet spot rate of 40%, and a 91st percentile
pulled fly ball rate in low-A. There’s still more power on the way as he
continues to fill out his frame, and I think there’s a world it could get to
plus if everything goes right. It’s more of a power-over-hit profile than it
was at the time of the draft, but I think these are positive changes given what
the power potential is at the top end of his outcomes. He’s a surprisingly good
runner and I think he can handle an outfield spot long term, although it might
be limited to left if the body fills out so much he can’t handle center field.
There is also some platoon risk in the whiff profile, but this is mostly
mitigated by being on the strong side, with plenty of opportunities to get
playing time.
Scouting
Grades: 45 hit, 55 power, 55 run, 50 field, 45 arm
Optimistic
Comp: Brendan Donovan
15) Elian Peña
Peña made
history as the first international free agent in franchise history to sign for
five million dollars, and also as the first to sign for three million dollars,
or four million dollars. It’s a huge change of pace for the organization,
although this deal predates the Stearns regime.
There’s
limited information on him at this point — especially against good arms — but
his hit tool has been lauded a ton by scouts. This comes from showing an elite
ability to control the strike zone and make contact when he does swing. I’m not
entirely convinced his swing is currently designed to handle higher velo that
he hasn’t really seen yet — there can be a lot of stiffness in the swing
combined with a pronounced coil in the load that doesn’t totally pass the sniff
test to me. That said, the hit tool marker results have been there, and he
pairs this potential contact/PD profile with a ton of bat speed that can lead
to significant damage on contact. When everything is clicking, the swing looks
better and he can spray hard hit fly balls to the pullside. It’s a profile with
a ton of offensive potential if it all clicks. Defensively, he shows good
actions in the infield, and likely ends up at third base if the body fills out
a little more. He’s worked hard on his athleticism (at least per public reporting
from the team) and has recently posted plus or better 60 yard dash times, so
speed could be a positive part of his game.
Overall,
it’s a fun profile with a ton of potential outcomes on either tail of his
median projection. Hit rates of high-money IFA signings has been pretty low
recently, and Peña isn’t a product of the new regime, but he has as good of a
chance as almost anyone to be considered a global top prospect in a year’s
time. If that outcome hits, the Mets could have a future superstar on their
hands. We’ll see.
Jim
Koenigsberger @Jimfrombaseball)
"In
baseball and in life, it's not about how hard you can swing, but about how well
you can connect."
Gary Carter
