ANGRY MIKE: Should Cohen Run the Mets Like a Hedge Fund or MLB Franchise?

 ANGRY MIKE 

MLB franchises, like hedge funds, have fundamental investment strategies that govern how they operate in order to maximize their chances for success. Each entity might define success differently, MLB teams its defined as winning, for hedge funds its defined as profits, but how they go about ascertaining success is fundamentally the same. 

Choosing the right investments is the cornerstone to being successful.

Each potential investment requires meticulous research, analysis, and being able to accurately forecast potential performance. 

Most importantly, being able to account for “variable change”, hiring the right personnel who can navigate through the volatility of market conditions. 

Three pillars of success for successful investing or owning a Major League Baseball Franchise. 

Right now all eyes are on New York Mets owner, Steve Cohen, to see how he intends to navigate through arguably the most volatile market conditions he’s faced during his tenure as owner. When the Mets had a successful 2024 season, exceeding all expectations, the biggest problem wasn’t coming up short on winning a World Series. The successful 2024 season awakened one of the most volatile, success-starved fanbases in pro sports, activating their blood-lust yearning for the World Series title that has alluded them for over 40 years.

When that championship wasn’t delivered during the 2025 season, despite the acquisition of one the sport’s greatest hitters, Juan Soto on a record $800 million free agent contract, the fanbase does what it does best, it activates “Zombie-Mode” and starts cannibalizing its own. 

“Every player sucks. Our owner only cares about money. Our team is cursed.” 

An incredible transformation from unbridled enthusiasm to ever-lasting rage, introducing the Mets fanbase.

Cohen and his President, David Stearns, find themselves at a pivotal crossroads, where they must decide what can be done to prevent a repeat of last season’s catastrophic collapse, but also put them in a position to compete for a championship. A hedge fund manager and his analysts aren’t successful because they can predict the future, it’s because they have the ability to adapt, like a General commanding his troops on the battlefield. In order to adapt, you have to accurately assess the strengths and weaknesses of the troops under your command as well as those of your opponent.

Accurately assessing the capabilities of the Mets roster requires not just looking at next season, but the next couple seasons, starting with which players represent valuable investments and which players might need to be replaced. Similar to how a hedge fund manager tries to decide which investments to take long positions or short positions.

The following players represent investments the Mets will undoubtedly move on from after the 2026 season or even prior to next season. 

#Mets have $74+ Million scheduled to come off the payroll after 2026 season & another $40 million after 2027:

Expiring Contracts -> After 2026 Season:

F. Montas              ->           $       17.0 M   

D. Peterson           ->           $        9.2  M  

J. McNeil               ->           $       12.5 M    

A.J. Minter            ->           $       11.0 M   

L. Torrens             ->           $        2.9  M   

T. Taylor               ->           $         3.8 M    

H. Brazoban         ->           $         2.0 M   

T. Megill               ->           $         2.0 M    

R. Lovelady          ->           $         1.0 M   

OPT-OUTS:

C. Holmes            ->           $      12.7  M 

Expiring Contracts -> After 2027 Season:

K. Senga             ->            $      17.0  M  

S. Manea             ->            $       9.2  M   

The Mets have an incredible opportunity to create payroll flexibility that can enable them to capitalize on generational talents scheduled to hit free agency over the next couple off-seasons. That is why it’s imperative Cohen doesn’t overreact to public sentiment or negative media coverage pertaining to last season. Quite frankly, there aren’t any players the Mets can acquire this off-season which will truly help them become contenders. 

Should the Mets retain Edwin Diaz? Absolutely. Pete Alonso? Negative Ghostrider.

Alonso made his decision to not be a part of the Mets future when he rejected an above market extension offered to him during the 2023 season. 

At the time the extension was offered, retaining Alonso seemed to be the best move for the franchise. Fast forward to now, after seeing the progressions of a multitude of high-upside prospects and the impending availability of players like Tarik Skubal, Shane McClanahan, and Mackenzie Gore, the Mets simply can’t afford to allocate tens of millions to a first-basemen. There are only two players who have the ability to exponentially raise the Mets ability to compete for a World Series title:

Tarik Skubal and Shane McClanahan

Two legit “ACES”, both left-handed, both capable of hitting triple digits, both with career K-rates of at least 28%, career walk BB-rates no high than 8%, and fortunately for the Mets, they are scheduled to hit free agency in consecutive years. Skubal will hit free agency first, and I believe Cohen will not lose the bidding war for the MLB’s most talented pitcher. Most teams would be finished after signing Skubal to a contract that could total $400 million, but most teams don’t have the ability to create the type of payroll flexibility like the Mets can, by continuing to integrate high-upside youth into their pitching staff and lineup simultaneously.

Potential SP options to choose from:

N. McLean | J. Tong | B. Sproat | J. Santucci | Z. Thornton 

C. Scott

Potential RP options to choose from:

W. Watson | D. Ross | R. Lambert | B. Banks | T. Pauley 

J. Wenninger 

Potential Lineup options: -> E. Pena will be ready by 2028

J. Williams | C. Benge | J. Reimer | R. Clifford | N. Morabito 

A.J. Ewing | C. Suero

No other playoff contender have the ability to outfit their pitching staff & lineup with as many high-upside players & pitchers that we can, creating historic payroll flexibility.

Having the organizational depth in your farm system to potentially fill 10-12 roster spots with impact talent from the minor leagues is as rare as it gets, and the timing is perfect because it enables the Mets to take advantage of another frontline “ACE” hitting free agency after the 2027 season. 

Shane McClanahan was arguably one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, who had better career numbers during the first three years of his career than Skubal or Red Sox ace, Garrett Crochet.

• - 74 career starts -> 36 Quality starts
• - Could’ve been 51 Quality starts -> if not for strict pitch counts
• - 69% of his first 74 outings -> he surrendered 3 or fewer runs
• - Arsenal on par with Skubal & arguably better than Crochet’s
• - Triple digit velocity, plus curveball, plus slider, plus changeup
• - 7% career BB-Rate is better than Skubal’s
• - His 28% Career K-Rate is only 1% lower than Skubal’s

If you compare McClanahan and Skubal from 2021-2023, “Sugar Shane” actually has a higher K-Rate and an identical BB-Rate, and they both faced a little over 1400 batters faced. If it wasn’t for McClanahan needing TJ surgery, he might have very well continued to challenge Skubal for the A.L. CY Young awards he won, even though he plays for a Rays team that is in the midst of a rebuild. You’re talking about a pitcher who has only 16 recorded losses despite playing on a team that really isn’t trying to win.

That is why the Mets have to go all in and sign not just Skubal, but also McClanahan. They’ll have the ability to not only deploy arguably the deepest rotation in baseball, but also the most talented. Having Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong functioning as your #3 and #4 starters, takes a tremendous amount of pressure off of them, as well as giving the Mets a huge competitive advantage by allowing them to face the opponent’s weaker starting pitchers, not their #1 and #2 starters.

Yes, it will be a massive financial commitment signing both pitchers, but when you have impact talent like McLean, Tong, Benge, Jett Williams, Santucci, Lambert, Ross, and a host of others being paid the league minimum, the timing is perfect to re-allocate considerable resources towards securing two of the most talented pitchers in baseball to anchor the top of your rotation. It also frees up the Mets to utilize a combination of other premium talents such as Brandon Sproat, Jonathan Santucci, or Zach Thornton to fortify their bullpen, saving them tens of millions in the process.

It’s time for Cohen to ignore the fanbase, ignore the media, and leave last season in the past. The worst thing he can do is to ignore the opportunity in front of him, by overreacting to what happened during the 2025 season. The opportunity to sign two pitchers of this caliber won’t come around until the winter of 2028, and that’s only if Hunter Brown and Cole Ragans don’t sign extensions before then. They will also hit free agency the same year, further complicating things, as they both will be offered qualifying offers, increasing the penalties the Mets will be forced to pay that are associated signing multiple free agents who rejected qualifying offers. 

Potential NLCS pitching matchups after we acquire Skubal and McClanahan:

Game 1 -> Skubal vs Ohtani 

Game 2 -> McLean vs. Yamamoto 

Game 3 -> McClanahan vs Snell 

As bad as the 2025 season might have been, the next decade has a chance to be exponentially historic, if Cohen starts running this franchise like a hedge fund and not just like a MLB franchise. His greatest strengths are patience and being ruthless when it comes to capitalizing on potential market opportunities that can be identified before others catch on, and by using that same calculated approach that made him a monster in the Hedge fund industry, he can create the dynasty he’s always wanted too.

If Cohen lets the media and fanbase force him to act impulsively, signing players this winter and essentially removing the Mets from having the payroll flexibility to sign both players, he essentially gift wraps one or both players to the Dodgers.

It’s right there for the taking, and no franchise is in a better position to create a dynasty, than Steve Cohen and his New York Mets.

The game is afoot.