Over the next 6 months I will be profiling the amateur talent available in the 2012 draft.
If you ask professional scouts for MLB teams, they will tell you that ranking players this early is relatively useless and even if and when MLB offices do rank, there is no chance they share that information with the public.
But that’s what you have me for.
Careers have been made out of arbitrarily ranking young baseball players in prime-number lists that tend to have little correlation to future success.
While I am not looking to do the same, I would like the opportunity to inform the MacksMets readers about the players the Mets will be looking at on draft day 2012.
As we progress through the winter, I would like to eventually rank the top players and work with Mack on his Mock Drafts.
Close to draft day I will post an official list based not only on talent rankings but also on team needs and draft preferences and team strategies to create (I hope) a relatively accurate mock for you all.
Before the mock, though, there are a lot of players I would like to profile. First, I would like to look at the top players in the draft—the guys most likely to go in the first three rounds (of which the Mets have 5 picks). I will examine why they are projected to go that high, what weaknesses scouts have seen, and why the Mets will look seriously at them (or, conversely, why they won’t or shouldn’t). After that, I would like to list players by position and compile information on their projections—which pitchers look more like high-octane relievers, which are more of the workhorse inning eaters, and which have ceilings as true aces. For hitters, which middle infielders could win a gold glove, which outfielders could hit 30 home runs or steal 50 bases…you get the idea. Lastly, I would like to collaborate with Mack on a few posts about players that the Mets have been tied to (this will be closer to draft day) or should certainly still be on the board by the Mets #12 pick and profile what these players could look like in the organization right now--Where they would start, what competition they would face, where they could be in a few years.
This is only an outline for the Friday draft posts. If there is anything you would like to see, players you want me to research and profile, rankings or lists you think would be interesting, write to me in the comment section and I will respond with my thoughts and if it is a fit, write an article based on the requests. I will also be asking Mack for a “Mack’s take” on each of my posts, seeing as that he has a cavernous knowledge of young players.
A few scouting methods I generally avoid, for the record, are analyzing height, weight, and bloodlines. Through my research and experience following young players, I have found that these have little to do with future success. I also do not buy much into velocity of young arms, especially high schoolers. If they have it, great. If not, I do not knock them for it if they have a solid make-up, good secondary offerings, a fluid delivery, etc.
My process will by and large be taking any and all scouting information available of the players and compositing it into a “profile”. I will work with Mack to weed out the bad reports and rankings to make this as comprehensive and informative as possible.
Again if there is any information you would like or themes for a section of these weekly posts leading up to the draft, please let us know.
--Stephen
7 comments:
Stephen:
It seems to me that you might be right about Giolito.
Pundits keep going back and forth and, if 2012 stats will have anything to say about it, Lucas will blow past Appel because his high school team has far less competition.
This looks like the year of the high school player. BA had 20 of the first 30 picks coming out of high school.
Me... please let either Gausman drop...
I remember last draft day. Mets didn't go.for the sure thing. Definatly makes your job harder Steve. Trying to find the guy the Mets pick at 12, who they're only picking there because they know he won't be there at their next pick. Nimmo was a nice pick, we're all excited about him, but at thirteen in last year's stocked draft, he was probably a late first round pick. The Mets really wanted him though and thats their new philosophy. Same with the Fulmer pick. It definatly makes figuring them out on draft day difficult.
Charlie and Stephen:
You both know that I wasn't thrilled with either Nimmo or Fulmer, based on who was available.
I'm even thrilled less after finding out that the guy that picked them for the Mets quit last month.
Only time ill tell, but OF Bran Goodwin (Nats), OF Zach Cone (Tex), cathers C.J. Cron and Blake Swihart, and SP Jed Bradley Sonny Gray and Alex Meyer were all still avaialble when the Mets picked Nimmo.
3B-OF Travis Harrison, 3B Dante Bichette Jr., SS Trevor Story, and P Hudson Boyd were available when Fulmer was picked
Oh, I remember Mack....like it was yesturday. You seemed especially perturbed about Fulmer. Like the Zen Master would say, "we'll see...". Ten years from now, it could turn out to be the best draft they've ever had. Or, the worst.
I also said that the Ike Davis pick was the wrong one and the Mets should have taken Alan Dykstra.
Nimmo intrigued me. I had the Rays taking him late in the first or in the supplemental. I really liked Sonny Gray for the Mets (heart set on Archie but oh well) but Nimmo's athleticism made him a high-upside pick. He could turn out to be the steal of that draft but like Charles said, it's just too early to tell.
I found it more interesting that the Mets drafted two tough signs with their first two picks. Turned out they signed both of them but I thought that was an interesting play considering the need to build the system and the low odds of signing both of them.
Mack: I doubt Gausman drops. With a strong spring I could even see the Royals taking him #4 after Giolito, Appel, and Buxton are off the board. I'm hoping for Fried to fall. I watched some tape on him...curve already looks Kershaw-esque and the fastball has life as well. HUGE upside for that kid and unfortunately overlooked by his teammate Giolito but very well may be the better prospect in the end. Too early to tell but they have one hell of a 1-2 over there in California.
Charles- If I HAD to guess right now, considering who I think will be off the board already, my guess would be one of Fried, Dahl, Trey Williams, or Correa. I REALLY like Correa and think he could rocket up the draft board. Official guess at this point is Fried. We'll see how that changes though because I could see him going top-10 with a good spring.
Anyone else want Guerrieri (sp?) in last year's draft? He fell a lot further than I thought he would and I don't know why.
Well Mack, it worked out for you. They'll have Dykstra planted in triple A, hoping you were right. Imagine if this is the season where he breaks through? He's got the power and a good eye...just needs to put the ball in play more and drop the strikeouts. Easier said than done, but if he does, what an excellent trade and turn of events that would be. (actually, already an excellent trade)
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