Tom Brennan - DJ Stewart, Superstar; Mets Minors Hitters Losing Ground in 2023

Productive Competitors Will Crowd Out Weaker Performers

BEFORE MY REGULARLY SCHEDULED ARTICLE:

Lindor, Alonso, Nimmo, McNeil?

Pretty decent players.

DJ Stewart?, though?

SUPERSTAR.

2 HRs, a terrific, fence-banging catch, and a walk off HBP.

We’ve tried the rest….now, we’ve tried the best…DJ Stewart.

And Vogelbomb hit another.

Slow and Burly wins the race.

ARTICLE TIME!

July came, and with it brought trades - and the trades, and the draft, brought in several stud prospect hitters.

So, the pre-existing prospects suddenly find a more crowded field of competition.

Which has to be dispiriting.

But it is also a call for prospects to up their game.

Who are some of these? (Stats as of August 21).

ALEX RAMIREZ: 

A-Ram had a 6 for 6 game this year - but otherwise has hit .223 in Brooklyn this year. He hit .278 in 54 games there last year at age 19. Something is wrong, and perhaps it it learning to work more walks, as his OBP in Brooklyn in 2022, and in 2023, is .329 both years. He needs to up his game big time, given all the competition. Do whatever it takes. If it means adding 30 pounds of muscle this off season, do it. And 19 steals this year…nice. But…Why not double that?  Pick it up, Alex.

JOSE PEROZA: 

He missed time early this year, started out hot in AA, but .173 in July, .146 in August. He is listed at 6’1”, 249. Not knowing Jose, my guess is he needs to go all-out to lose 30 pounds by getting in Rocky Balboa vs. Clubber Lang shape. Or just hang it up, due to too many competitors. Zach Lutz had much better numbers in the David Wright era, but never succeeded. Jose will have to do MORE.

MATT RUDICK: 

He was the AA OBP leader by a wide margin, until injuries set in several weeks ago.  He was as lofty as .326/.468/.582 in late May. He began to fade in mid-June and went on the injured list June 21. Played very little since. Now, the competition is far more fierce. Not sure what Matt’s malady has been, but he needs to get back on the field and pick up where he left off pre-injury, since he is already 25.

ROWDEY JORDAN:

The prospect field pre-trade was downright Rowdey. Now it’s  downright Crowdy. In mid-July in AA, he was rising fast, up to .261/.375/.434.  But a cold August has him down to .236/.356/.412. With the increased competition, the drops have to be fewer, the rises have to be greater, especially since he will turn 25 this winter.

LUKE RITTER:

The Mets’ minor league HR leader in 2023 , with 26 in 362 at bats, and he has jumped his average to the low .240s vs. .204 last year, but his Ks (1.25 per game) are still way too high. How to fix that, I don’t know, but the competition has made a major league debut in his future less likely. The Ks must come down at least 25%. Still, .243/.372/.489 is good, but his output feels very Travis Taijeron-like. And that didn’t end well.

JUNIOR TILIEN AND WILLIAM LUGO:

Both showed impressive results at a young age last year. But the 21 year old Lugo is hitting just .225 in Brooklyn, without alacrity on the basepaths.Gotta do better. 

Junior is on the IL and, yes, he is just 20, but has hit .243/.325/.406 between Lucie and Brooklyn. Good for his age, but he lacks speed, so he will have to ramp up the bat in 2024 to stay legitimately in the competition, which has been recently crowded by newly added infielders Acuna and Colin Houck, Marco Vargas, and Jeremiah Jackson, as well as the ascending Wilfredo Lara. Not to mention Baty, Vientos, and Mauricio. 

Quite the infield crowd, one might say, especially when Pete Jeff, and Lindor are already there.

If infielder Jose Peroza does not keep pace, that will be one less obstacle for Junior, the lad who vaulted to a modicum of notoriety in 2022 with his 3 home run game in St Lucie at the tender age of 19.

There are more in the fading-in-2023 category, but I’ll leave it there for now. They all know the competition has gotten fierce.

The fiercer it gets, the harder you’ve got to work. Fierce requires fierce.

Carlos Cortes gets it. Rip roaring, fiercely hot lately in AAA.  For guys like him, I wish the roster expanded to 32 on September 1, not 28.

PETE CROW TIME?

Petey Boy has been doing good in AAA lately, Spanky and Alfalfa told me, and Crow might just be called up on September 1, if he hasn't already.  I will be wearing sackcloth and ashes that day, when it comes, since the call-up will be to the Cubs, not to the Shlubs who traded him so very stupidly. Crow Mania will begin in the Windy City.

For whom? Julian Javier Baez, who for 2 years after his brief but very costly drop-in with the Mets in late 2021 has played like a washed up has-been bum at ages 29 and 30 for Detroit. Has anyone on the Mets been fired for that bonehead trade?  No?  Why the heck not?

Last Nite In The Mets Minors:

Cortes on twice, and the hot McIlwain hit another HR. Lucchesi Loses.

AA?

JT Schwartz had 2 more hits (.298) and 2 more RBIs.

Paul Gervase faced 4 AA hitters and fanned all 4.

Red hot Rylan Thomas (yeah, him again) had a hit and 3 walks. On base 8 times in his first 3 AA games. .328/.413/.434 this year.

Tom Brennan - HBP Blues

Metsville Can Be a Painful Place

Much to my surprise, the Mets are only 2nd this year in HBPs, with 84, likely due to Canha leaving and Marte missing so much time. Both are avid plunkees.

Of course Detroit (33) has been hit 51 fewer times, as a counterpoint.

2022? Mets 112, #2 team 95 HBP.  Texas 47.

2021? Mets 4th with 94 (11 behind leader). Detroit 44.

2020? Mets #2, with 45. Colorado? 10.

2019? Mets #1, with 95. Colorado? 43.

2018? Mets SEVENTH at 73. San Diego 31.

Pete’s been beaned what, 3 times?

Morale of that story?

You will get hit a lot more if you are a contending team. All the lowest hit by pitch teams were lousy those years. There is clearly a level of intentionality., as there is little need to hit batters on really bad teams, and risk waking them up.

Also, when your hurlers are passive in hitting other teams’ players, you invite your hitters getting plunked.

Mets pitchers over those 6 years hit their opponents 120 fewer times than their hitters got nailed. A lot less deterrent.

Hit the other guys. 

At least make the opposing hitters eat dust.

Grow a pair. Even the score, whether the other guys were unintentional, or not.  Make them think twice.

In the Post, Showalter waxed philosophical as follows:

“You get to the point where intention doesn’t really play into it as much. My job is to try to keep a sense of reality and safety of everybody. Everybody’s chasing velocity now and I’m worried again. Their bullpen and other bullpens. And with that comes a lack of command. With that comes people getting hit. It’s not good for the game.Everybody keeps chasing this and it’s a by-product of it. 

You throw like that and you throw inside, you’re not necessarily trying to hit somebody but you’re taking that chance of hitting people like that. Somewhere along the line, there’s gotta be something to pay for that. Whether it be from the league office or something. You’re seeing it every night. These guys are ducking 100-mile-an-hour fastballs all over baseball, and especially Pete. And I’m not happy about it.”

We hate it, Buck. 

Even the count, Buck. One for our guy, one for their guy.

Anther Post article noted:

Alonso believes the advent of the universal DH in both leagues last season means “there’s no repercussions” because pitchers “no longer have to stand in the box.”

Those pitchers’ buddies do. Hit them. Make them dance. Every time.

 It will slow up. 

A beaning could maim somebody. Pete’s had at least three.

Conigliaro? Agee 1968?

Enough. Stop it now. 

LAST NITE: 

Back to Mets brand of baseball…which is the well-pitched LOSS, with utterly anemic offense. 

Quintana again pitched commendably, but has just one win…it can only happen to a Mets hurler. Just ask Jake.

Marky Mark Vientos accrued a single and HR…back to .195…maybe that will get him going.  

Alvarez deep slump continues. Thoughts?

CORTES CONQUERS:

Like a conquistador of old, Carlos Cortes is in conquer mode…he homered twice, 6 RBIs. He has been slugging much more and seems to be thrusting himself back into the Mets’ 2024 utility IF/OF conversation. 

8 HRs in August, with a robust .284/.437/.617 slash in 23 August contests.

Ronny Mo HR (23) and seems his “on fire” mode continues. I’d call him up Sept 1, which is FRIDAY! His HR PER AT BAT rate for 2023 is about the same as that of Cortes.

Ronny had a HR, 2 singles, and is back up to .295. Hot! 

Others on the Mets are not hot. Hitting like snot.

Reese Kaplan -- Predicting the Returning 2023 Mets for 2024

How many of the 2023 Mets players do you see having a role in 2024?  Now before you get on my case regarding prospective trades and the like, let's confine this question to people in the majors right now or at least at the AAA level who you think have the stuff to play among the best in the game.

Pete Alonso -- Despite the rumors of a trade and the viable reasons it might make sense, the fear of fanbase retaliation will likely preempt any efforts to obtain a package of hot prospects and saving payroll dollars.  Expect him back for one more run at the major money due when he becomes a free agent at the end of 2024.

Jeff McNeil -- The latter part of the season reminds everyone why he won the batting title in 2022.  He can hit.  No doubt about it.  He's not the best runner nor the flashiest fielder, but his versatility combined with his propensity to make contact suggest that he earned the long contract extension.

Francisco Lindor -- Although he was well below average in 2021, he showed in 2022 what he was capable of doing.  In 2023 his batting average is down, but his power, speed and defense make him one of the top 3-4 shortstops in all of baseball.  His contract is prohibitively expensive, so get used to seeing him on the left side of the infield and appreciate what he can do.

Brett Baty -- The corresponding third base choice, Mark Vientos, is not on this list.  They are apparently content to use the remainder of this lost season to allow Baty to regroup in AAA and to see what, if anything Vientos can offer in the majors.  It's quite clear they regard Baty more highly than Vientos so a betting person would wager he is your opening day third baseman.

Francisco Alvarez -- Yes, he has home run power that everyone had heard about.  He is turning himself into at least an average major league catcher.  And he's just 21 years old.  While he's slumping a bit due to late season exhaustion, he is the catcher of the present and the future.  

Tomas Nido -- Remember him?  After his vision issues wreaked havoc both with his offense and defense, he was banished upstate where he has quietly turned himself into a solid hitter.  Expect him to be back in his number two slot behind Alvarez.

Brandon Nimmo -- Many folks were glad he was back but they were accustomed to his game of on base percentage and increasingly acrobatic center field defense.  They were not expecting him to morph into a 20+ home run hitter.  He feels that as pitchers adjust their approach to the game he must approach each at bat differently and the result is more power.  He's showing himself to be well worth Steve Cohen's investment.

DJ Stewart -- He's a bit of a surprise for this list, but his late season regular efforts have been terrific and while he may not convince the manager to make him an everyday outfielder, he is certainly a lot more palatable as a substitute than some of the others who audtioned and failed in this role.  He has power for sure and while his defense is kind of Roger Cedeno-like, if he drives in runs people will tolerate it.

Kodai Senga -- He should be getting some serious consideration for the NL Rookie of the Year.  Now to be fair, a 30 year old as a rookie is a bit of a fish out of water scenario, but that's how foreign imports work in MLB.  He's everything the Mets hoped he would become and for now he appears to be the ace of the staff going into 2024.

Jose Quintana -- A late arrival in 2023, he's been every bit as good (or better) that people had hoped.  He is surely going to be back and hopefully healthy to be a number two or three in the new 2024 starting rotation.  

Mike Vasil -- Get to know the name.  He was brilliant in AA but struggled initially upon promotion to Syracuse.  That performance level has sure changed and in his last several starts he looks ready to move up again.  Considering the Mets will have three starting pitching vacancies going into 2024 he will get a long look in Port St. Lucie during Spring Training.

Edwin Diaz -- Right now there is talk about the Fireman of the Year candidate making a September appearance to reassure both himself and his employer that he is ready to resume his domination of National League hitters.  We all hope he doesn't rush back too soon, but 2-3 appearances in late September would make everyone very happy indeed.

Adam Ottavino -- He signed a two year deal in the off season, so the veteran setup guy is slated to be part of the bullpen for the third straight year.  That's not a bad thing at all (unless it comes to holding baserunners from attempting to steal).

Brooks Raley -- It is apparent that his out of nowhere 2022 performance for Tampa was not an outlier.  He's repeated his domination in nearly every one of his appearances and the Mets certainly need some southpaw help in the bullpen.  

As for the rest of the roster...they are divided into likely, likely not and definitely not.  The new arrivals from the midseason trades are not quite ready to start the year at Citifield and we have not yet explored trades nor free agent signings.  Is there anyone you feel is a definite on the 2024 roster?  Obviously folks like Starling Marte and Drew Smith are likely to return but at this point they're not on the definite list. 

Rumble Ponies momentum builds

It was a big week for the AA Rumble Ponies last week.  In addition to taking four of five games in their series against the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (TOR), they saw two players receive EL player of the week accolades.  The Mets AA affiliate has won 7 of their last 10 games and is just 3 games behind the first place Somerset Yankees in the Eastern League standings.

Agustin Ruiz and Tyler Stuart were the award recipients as the team has continues to flourish around the addition of new prospects from the mid-season trades.

The press release from the Binghamton Rumble Ponies follows:

The Binghamton Rumble Ponies, Double-A Affiliate of the New York Mets, announced Monday that outfielder Agustin Ruiz has been named the Eastern League Player of the Week for the week of August 21-27. 

With Ponies RHP Tyler Stuart being named the Eastern League (EL) Pitcher of the Week, it is the first time this season that the Ponies have swept both awards in a single week. 

The 23-year-old Ruiz had a slash line of .500/.636/1.125 with an OPS of 1.761 during the Ponies’ five-game road series against New Hampshire. He finished the series with three home runs, eight RBIs, seven runs scored, and three straight multi-hit games. In Thursday’s come-from-behind win, Ruiz hit an RBI double in the seventh inning and a solo home run in the ninth that fueled the Ponies’ 7-6 comeback victory. On Friday, Ruiz recorded his third three-hit game of the season. 

The Mets selected Ruiz in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft and is in his sixth season playing professionally after previously being with the San Diego Padres organization. Ruiz is from Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico. 

Ruiz and Stuart become the fifth and sixth Rumble Ponies players to earn Eastern League recognition this season. RHP Luis Moreno was named EL Pitcher of the Week for the week of June 19-25. RHP Mike Vasil was named the EL Pitcher of the Month for May, IF Jose Peroza was named EL Player of the Week for May 8-14, and IF Luke Ritter was named EL Player of the Week for June 5-11.

Tom Brennan - DSL Season Recap

   

The DSL Sun Has Set in the West.

Season’s Over. How’d they do?

Incredibly, the regular season in the DSL is OVER. Whoosh! 

54 games, last regular season game was to be played on Tuesday. Rained out. 

Got to get the kids ready for school, I imagine, so the season ends.

Anyway, the two Mets teams combined finished several games under .500, but several of the players really impressed.

Team-wise….

The Dodgers Machine was in full display. 50 games OVER .500 for their two squads. They averaged plus 3 runs per game!

Phillies 30 over .500.

Astros 20 over .500.

Yankees 15 over.500.

The Mets’ Orange team impressively had the 8th highest OPS out of 50 teams at .774, and Mets Blue was midlle-of-pack (26th) at .711.

Top OPS team (Rockies) were at .816, while the Nats came in last at just .554. Besides hitting just .189, the Nats had a scant 9 HRs, while the Rockies had 51.  One team serves Wheaties.

Of course, our slugger extraordinaire Jeffrey Rosa had a Pete-like 15 dingers all by himself in just 44 games to lead the 50 team league, and he also had the highest slug % at .669. Congrats!

Branny de Oleo hit .313, 

Jostyn Almonte hit .311, and 

Julio Zayas hit .307. 

Kudos to all.

The 17 year old Zayas was tied for 3rd with 43 RBIs and importantly fanned just 26 times in 49 games, portending a bright future, especially if he can remain at catcher.

And Heriberto Rincon hit .301, with 17 steals in 20 attempts. Kudos. All those steals, but we refuse to press charges. You’re free to Go Go Go!

Franklin Gomez tied for 6th in Ks with 61 in just 44 innings. Sweet.

Lucas Gordillo barely missed out on the ERA crown, with a 1.21 ERA, and 55 Ks in 37 IP. Killer, who pitched like Godzilla, complete with fireballs.

Lastly, Franyel Diaz fanned 54 in 45 IP, with a 3.00 ERA (and he even went 0-4 in one OF game). Nice.

CONGRATS TO THE 8 PLAYERS NAMED!

MAY ALL 8 CRUSH THE FCL IN 2024!

 

Tom Brennan -The Case for JT Schwartz

JT Schwartz, back in his UCLA days.

I’m like Mack (or at least I was) on JT Schwartz:

“Lacks power…next?”

Except, I looked closer and liked what I saw.

First of all, he is both a 1B AND OF, so his being a fine-fielding first baseman on a team with Pete is not an issue, as he is also is an errorless outfielder.

JT’s gross #s are low this year…in large part due to injury causing him to miss 51% of Binghamton’s games. But he is hitting .298 with a .385 OBP on a team where, through July, he was surrounded with anemic hitters.

Another But…he is healthy now, and has posted an eye-catching .347/.449/.520 slash for August.

He also, with 2 outs this year and RISP, when it COUNTS, is hitting .356 this year.

If he played all of Binghamton’s games, at his current RBI rate, he’d have 85 RBIs. On a team that until lately has been lousy at getting guys on base.

Last 2 seasons?  

605 at bats, 40 doubles, 6 triples, 9 HRs, and 91 RBIs. 

He also played last year for Brooklyn, which was poor at getting runners on base to knock in.

He actually adjusted his approach in difficult Brooklyn last year and while hitting an admirable .292 there, launched just one of his 6 HRs there in 2022. Smart adjustment. Long fly outs into stiff incoming winds are simply outs.

Strikeouts? 

A plague for so many, but just 41 in 234 plate appearances this year, a quality rate. 

Speed? 

8 of 11 steals and 6 triples over the course of his career, in 789 PAs, tells me his speed is at least near-average.

Power potential? 

Well, he is 6’4”, a size that would permit power to be added, and I highly suspect you will see the 23 year old lefty hitter’s HR rate jump in 2024. I can imagine him saying, “I’ve proven I can hit for average, like McNeil and TJ Rivera did early in their minors careers - now watch me hit 20 HRs in 2024.”

I know Mack likely will disagree, but the Mets may decide to let Pete roll into 2024 without extension, if for no other reason than to have more time to see if flying-under-radar JT Schwartz can turn into a John Olerud.

I realize this is all speculation, since JTS is not now in the Mets Top 30. 

Usually that tells you something.

Except for one thing…IMO, he should be in the top 15. 

Send him to the Arizona Fall League this year, and let him boost his 2023 at bats as a precursor to 2024. Then, off to the gym to add muscle and power, like McNeil and Rivera successfully did.

My guess is, if the Mets don’t keep him, he could be a dandy 1B for the Yankees with that short porch.

METS WIN

David Peterson is pitching more, of late, as we would have expected him to all season. That is, with quality.  Can he keep it up?

SYNDERGAARD RELEASED:

6.50 ERA this year. Turns 31 this week. Sign him for Mets pen?

Or leave him in the discard bin?

Paul Articulates - Wooden you?

The crack of a wooden bat is a familiar sound in a MLB stadium, but it is much softer and more infrequent at Citi Field this year.  The Mets’ hitting woes this year seem to be worse than ever, and there have been quite a few light hitting teams wearing orange and blue over the last six decades.  The epic underperformance of what looked like a solid lineup brings into question everything about the hitting philosophy in the organization.  

How bad is it?  Here is a comparison between the 2022 season and the 2023 season with numbers that have been normalized to the number of games for fair comparison.

The loss of 22 points of team batting average from one season to the next is difficult to understand given the number of common players from last year’s lineup to this year’s lineup.  It is not the ball or the pitching rules – in 2022 the batting average for all MLB was .243.  This year that average is .249, so if anything one might expect an increase rather than a decrease.  So this is a team issue – and it is not personnel.  The players from last year’s team that are not on this year’s team in order of at-bats are JD Davis, James McCann, Dominic Smith, and Darrin Ruf.  None of them hit better than the team average last year.

Last year the Mets had a solid year at the plate, recording the sixth best OPS in baseball at .744.  That performance led to a lofty 772 runs scored and over 100 wins in one of the franchise’s best regular seasons.  How can things change so quickly?  For starters, they have a new batting coach in Jeremy Barnes who replaced Eric Chavez when the latter was promoted to Bench Coach.  The team has also struggled with the role of the analytics group in providing feedback to the hitters, which was something that Chavez was able to buffer last year.  

I think the hitting problem this year is rooted in the hitting approach.  There are many more strikeouts, pop-outs, and weak ground balls with players in scoring position.  When there are less than two out, even a hard hit out can be helpful if properly placed, but there seem to be many fewer productive at-bats that advance runners.  With runners in scoring position, the Mets are batting .242  this year versus .269 last year.

But here’s some confounding information.  I went to Baseball Savant to get some analytics on how the Mets weren’t hitting the ball very hard this year and found just the contrary.  This year’s hard hit ball rate is 40.5% compared to last year’s 37.1%.  This year the barrels per plate appearance are 5.6% versus last year’s 5.6%.  Average exit velocity is down about 0.6mph this year but that doesn’t seem to make the case.  So if it is not how hard they hit it, is it where they hit it?  Have the Mets outsmarted themselves by overcorrecting for the lack of a defensive shift?   The league average has improved this year without the shift so it makes the Mets situation all the more perplexing.

I don’t have the qualifications to solve this problem, but I think it is among the highest priority issues for  this team to resolve.  Run production will be extremely important next year because the Mets have a long way to go to regain the pitching dominance that fans are accustomed to.  So if I were setting the priorities for the off-season, I would make this the number one issue.  Wouldn't you?

Reese Kaplan -- An Under-the-Radar Good Change for the Mets

It seems these days all one can read about related to the Mets is who is gone, who should be coming and what has gone wrong during the forgettable and misspent 2023 season.  There are, however, some things that have been done that don't get as much wordplay but are just as important as Shohei Ohtani's impending health and its impact on his free agency pricing.  

Somewhat adrift in this past week's stories was the news that the Mets have opened a new pitching lab at their Port St. Lucie spring training headquarters.  What exactly is a pitching lab?  Well, we've heard a lot about the impact of metrics on player development and the path to contention.  Most of the time the data described concerned hitting such as launch angle, outgoing speed of batted balls and the impact of pitch selection for batters to improve their chances at making solid contact instead of swinging at what are clearly pitchers' out-of-the-strike-zone offerings.

Now the Mets are devoting the same science to how pitchers develop and prepare to face the opposing hitters using state-of-the-art imaging, exercising and instruction to give the club's pitchers (both current and future hurlers) the skill sets necessary to make the batters they face less capable of applying strong contact when they hit the balls thrown.  Right now the Mets starting pitchers are just below the halfway mark compared to the other 29 clubs when it comes to quality pitching and the relievers are at a lowly mark of 22nd out of 30.  Considering the deep history the club has had with top pitching these numbers are indeed something in great need of improvement.

Just as they have implemented force plates to help measure what hitters can do when in the box, a similar arrangement in the former Barwis Training Facility where the new lab is located provides the same force plates to measure the mechanics of what pitchers are doing on the mound.  For now the lab is getting ready for its inaugural use which will start during the offseason to help pitchers at all levels of the organization get more scientifically prepared to maximize their results.

The goal of the lab is to develop a depth and breadth of physical performance data on pitchers that will help them tailor a development plan for pitchers to help them understand what they are doing right and what they need to change to become more effective.  The new cameras operate at a much higher frame rate than the human eye can discern through visual observation and thus will help pinpoint what a pitcher's speed, spin rate and motions are contributing to success and failure.

Justin Verlander before he left, Jeremy Hefner and Steve Cohen all acknowledged that the Mets are woefully behind other clubs in how they analyze pitching metrics.  Cohen put a number on it of perhaps 8 years behind state-of-the-art clubs like Verlander's Houston Astros.  That lack of proper development is partially accountable for the team's middle and bottom of the pack numbers when it comes to overall mound performance.

As a sore point in pitching analysis current starting pitcher out of necessity, David Peterson, is ranked 68th among homegrown pitchers over the last several years in the Mets organization.  Not having solid internal options led the team to overspend on not one, not two, not three but four of its starting pitchers entering this season.  Gone are Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, but Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana are still here to help the club in 2024.  The free agency departure of Carlos Carrasco should still leave three openings in the starting rotation and it's clear finally to folks within the organization that Peterson, Tylor Megill and Jose Butto do not look like answers.  Right now they are likely on the fence about the future for Joey Lucchesi but there's definitely a need once again to bridge the gap until some of the kids are more ready to advance up the ladder to Citifield.

Of course getting all of the new pitching data is pointless without the correct analytical minds to interpret it and the proper coaching personnel to communicate it properly to the pitchers within the organization.  The lab opening is a great and long overdue step, but people expecting overnight success from all of the moving pieces are likely to be disappointed.  It is a long term solution that will require several years of operation until all data is understood and execution is changed dramatically to show an across the board improvement.  It's the kind of things that winning clubs do and it is refreshing to see Cohen step up on this investment during a lost season to help make the team better in the future.  

Tom Brennan - A Perfect Day of Mets Baseball

“Hey, I see some perfectly great stuff out there!”

Perfect? Well, almost.

The Mets needed a loss to continue their hopes (through frequent losing) of securing a truly high draft pick - and Carlos Carrasco once again obliged because he once again sucked. 3-8, 6.80? 1.70 WHIP? Qualifies as “sucks”.

The Mets lost 5-3 after CC gave up 5 runs while failing to record very many outs.  He remains one of baseball's worst starters this year.  

Thank you. Exactly what this team needs right now. Losses. Plenty of them.

DJ Stewart had a couple of hits in the loss.  His bat is eliciting smiles. He is well on his way to changing MLB perceptions about him…for the better. Almost as if he suddenly is living up to being the 25th overall pick in 2015. Vogelbach, I am guessing feeling the heat, hit his 12th.

In the minors, the post-trades hitting boom continues:

- 30 runs in the 4 games, and lots of hits

 - three wins with only one close loss (6-5 in extras by the Lucites).

AAA?

Vientos will be activated tomorrow, and I guess Jon Arauz will be sent down, but we'll see.

Mauricio was 3 for 5 with 2 runs scored and a steal.  

- He is now 9 for 18 in his last 4 games, and that screams "Call me up."

Brandon McIlwain has a .430 OBP in 20 games in AAA, with 7 steals.  Sweet. He may just be legit. Let's go, Brandon.

Vasil tossed 6 very good innings. One run.

In AA, JT Schwartz followed his 4 RBI grand slam Friday with 3 hits and 3 RBIs Saturday.  42 RBIs in 205 at bats and hitting .298?  .347/.449/.520 in 21 August games, with 16 RBIs? 

He is making a good impression, adding a now-dangerous bat to his fine fielding.

Stay healthy, play them all the rest of the way, JT. Then Arizona Fall ball.

Give him a AAA promotion reward, too, in September if he does.

Beyond Binghamton, Brooklyn won 8-5 and is beginning brutal bashing.

In the past week, 49 runs in 6 games and .276. Just .212 hitting in April thru June, then .245 and a HR a game since, with 240 runs in 47 games.

Yes…

A perfect day of baseball.  Even if St Lucie lost that tight (man starting the inning on 2nd base) game in extras.

Short TB recap - time to wrap it up.  

Have a perfectly happy Sunday. 

I perfectly know you will.

Tom Brennan - Friday Mini-Recap and Random Thoughts

“Hey, nothing like a good “mini” recap!”

Shohei the Great Ohtani arrives with barking elbow, and nonetheless doubles and walks 3 times in a 3-1 win over Kodai Senga’s Mets. Senga was really good, fanning 10 in 6.2 IP. We have an ace there. SS Francisco homered. Closer to a great draft pick, as the Yanks cooperated and won.

Catcher Francisco Alvarez meanwhile is scuffling: 

.122, 2 RBIs in his last 15 games. 

Someone pushed the “Superstardom Pause” button. Whoever you are, please remove finger from button.

Meanwhile…

Mendick hit .290 with the White Sox last year, .190 as a Met this year. Typical.

Arauz is 6 for 49 (.122) as a Met, and 23 for 152 in the majors the last 3 years (.151). The verdict is in.

Locastro is .143 (3 for 21), but boy is he fast, huh? It’s been a few years since he hit over .200, which is what made him attractive to the Mets.

Meanwhile, last year’s speedy bum, Travis Jankowski, who hit .167 for the Mets, in 221 at bats for Texas this year is hitting .281 with 17 of 18 steals. Funny how that happens a lot, huh?

Locastro is a .400 hitter vs. Texas, and wants to try that next, too, after 3 straight seasons hitting below .200.

The Angels’ Brandon Drury was NOT kept by the Mets, as they clearly knew better, knew that he was a bum. We thought otherwise, of course.

Drury in 872 ex-Mets at bats in 2022 and 2023 has hit .265, with 53 doubles, 46 HRs, and 144 RBIs. 

Very astute of the Mets, wouldn’t you say? The brilliance oozes out of every pore.

Vientos AAA rehab game, double and a walk at DH. McIlwain homered twice - nice year. Baty 1 for 5.

Carlos Cortes, the forgotten AAA man, is .292/.420/.583 in August after 3 AAA hits. 

Ronny Mo doubled (29), walked, and was errorless last night. Nine walks in 20 games this month, indicating improved strike/ball recognition.

St Lucie lost two. They lose early and quite often, and in novel ways.

Layonel Ovalles was great, as he allowed 1 run in 5 innings in the opener, but he lost. That happens to Mets pitchers a lot, said Jake deGrom.

Layonel’s relievers allowed 5 runs in the final inning, which was but a prelude to the nightcap, when Lucie hurlers walked 18 in 6 innings in a 15-2 loss, which might be a futility record, but I’m not researching that. 20 runs allowed in the last 7 innings of the doubleheader - priceless.

In AA, Drew Gilbert continued his fine ways with 2 hits and a walk, and right after I wrote that JT Schwartz needed to boost his power game, he hit a grand slam. Kudos.

Hamel threw 5 solid, if unspectacular, innings, allowing 3 runs on two homers, fanning 6. But the rest of the bums that followed him to the mound allowed 11 runs, and each of the latter returned to the hotel, and smartly updated their resumes.

In the Brooklyn game, the Majestic Golden Jett homered, singled, and walked. The 5’6” freak has a .350/.480/.638 slash in his first 22 games in High A. Is he ready? 

Joander Suarez has had an uneven 2023, but may well be a diamond in the rough, as in 2 of his 3 last games, he totaled 12 shutout innings, 4 hits, 17 Ks. Watch for him to rise in 2024.

Brooklyn had not one but 2 De Los Santos dudes in the line up last night, and they both went 1 for 4, 2 Ks, and a walk. Weird. 

Omar DSL is super fast, but has a super high 133 Ks in 88 games. 

He wants to play for Texas, where struggling Mets speedsters thrive.

Sammy Tavarez almost blew the game with poor relief. He has allowed 36 walks in 24 innings this year, noted Steve Dalkowski. Sammy updated his resume last night, and he walked it down to the mailbox.

ELI ANKENEY, though, got a 2 IP, 4 K save in a 6-5 nail biter. ELI ROCKS!

The 5 minors games showed Mets pitchers surrendering 47 runs.  This is a pitching-rich organization. They just need to all go to Seattle to show it.

Kevin Parada did not play last night. Shockingly to me, he is not listed in the MLB list of top 10 prospect catchers. Surely an oversight?

Now for the “mini-recap” part: 

To make a long story short, #1 Acuna is 5’8”, #2 Gilbert is 5’9”, #3 Jett is 5’6”, #5 Parada is 5’11”., and # 27 Rudick (he of the bad shoulder) is 5’6”. Cortes used to be in the top 30, and he is 5’7”. 

Odd, huh? The NY Mini-Me’s.

Thus ends the recap I had no plans of writing. Except…

Just a side note: 

My brother Steve blew his shoulder out as a teenager, because he loved to pitch and was in 3 leagues and literally started (and threw complete games) almost daily. 

Told me in HS he fanned 19 in back-to-back 7 inning games. Fireballing lefty.

An Oriole org pitcher he knew locally, can’t remember the name he mentioned, who made it to AAA, came into a Bellerose bar one night when my brother was there, unplugged the juke box, and yelled out in the bar, “my friend Steve here was a better pitcher than me.”   

Steve added he had a big local following, and people cheered whenever he walked out on the field. 

I was 14 years his senior, not around, and unfortunately only saw him pitch once, against a Canadian All Star team of 17-18 year olds in Montreal.

The first guy singled off him.

You didn’t do that to Steve. 

Next batter, screaming in from the mound in a manner that made Al Hrabosky seem genteel, Steve hit the guy very intentionally in the ribs. He screamed at the opposition a lot during his 3 innings, which ended with 9 straight strikeouts. He was a mound psycho who psyched the other guys out.  I think at the time, he was 17.

He also told me he hit .560 as a HS senior. Then his anatomy gave out. No one told him to pitch every 5th day, not every single day.

Mets-wise? 

He recommends that the Mets stop going cheap on the bullpen each year, noting it kills them annually. He’s right. He watches many games where the Mets roll in their latest dozen scrubs, and thinks, these guys simply aren’t major leaguers. The ERAs of these Back End Boys each season support his assertion.

He also notes how many guys the Mets use over time who never play again in the majors after their final Mets appearance. He refers to it as a talentless organization with a few exceptions. He was all for the Lindor deal, because he immediately became their best player in a talentless environment. He says that if they don’t give Pete a multi-year deal, their organizational heritage of idiocy will continue.

Bashful he is not.

He goes in for a second upper spinal surgery procedure this coming week. Tons of pain after the previous one 2 months ago. Please keep him in your prayers.

Reese Kaplan -- How Much Salary is Pete Alonso Worth?

We already discussed the prospect of the Mets trading away Pete Alonso during this offseason to net a haul rather than risk losing him for draft pick compensation in his free agent walk when the 2024 season ends.  Today let's look at the other side of the equation and try to ascertain what it would take to sign Alonso to a long term deal.

The first question people need to assess is whether Pete Alonso is a modern day Carlos Delgado with a bit more power and a bit more RBI capability while hitting in the .265 range, or is he more of a grander and powerful all-or-nothing Dave Kingman.  Which belief you have dictates how much money you think he's worth.

Now money is a subject that is still a bit hard to understand given the depth of the Steve Cohen coffers.  Obviously he is capable of spending for whomever he wants at rates above and beyond what the market might otherwise dictate.  However, as 2023 proved, spending big doesn't equate with winning big.  So what is Alonso's true worth?

If you go strictly by the back of the baseball card numbers, there's no denying his effectiveness as a home run hitter and RBI machine.  The Mets in the past had an odd season here and there with big numbers from Mike Piazza or Darryl Strawberry and others but no one put together the plateaus consistently the way Alonso has.  Yes, his defense isn't going to remind anyone of Keith Hernandez and his baserunning speed is perhaps only better than Daniel Vogelbach.  

Then there's the marketing force he represents for the Mets.  Since Piazza have the Mets had a player that other clubs actually feared when he stepped into the batter's box?  The fact that the Home Run Derby back-to-back champion can send long balls over the fence against any pitcher in any ballpark is quite real and having someone who is the best at what he does counts more for selling tickets, merchandise and building fan loyalty than wins and losses do.  As a result, trading away this level of star magnitude is a dangerous thing to consider.

Still, when you evaluate what he delivers and what he should earn, the numbers are high but not nearly as bad as you would have originally thought.  If you pull up comparables for some of the baseball stars in the game, you'd be looking at Matt Olson against whom he is vying for the National League home run title.  Olsen signed an eight year deal for $168 million which works out to $21 million per season.  For comparison's sake, you're now paying in  a lopsided contract that amount to Starling Marte.  I think the Braves got the better end of that expenditure.

Another approach could be to look at others in the league who have gotten more like Kris Bryant.  In his case you're paying more for positional versatility than you are for one solid offensive tool.  Again you can evaluate WAR numbers and come up somewhere in the same range.  

Now some folks would instead use Mike Trout as a comparable because he's a Home Run and RBI leader year after year.  His contract may in fact prevent Arte Moreno from extending Shohei Ohtani as he earns $426 million over the course of 12 years.  That's a $35 million per year average.  Pete Alonso is not Mike Trout.  He doesn't play a stellar outfield nor does he steal a great many bases while hitting north of .300.  

So if we assume $35 million is the upper limit and $21 million is the lower limit, at Alonso's age a 7-8 year deal might be the best you could offer.  If you suggested $25 million per season for 8 years, that would be $200 million.  Would that get it done?  Think a minute...Francisco Lindor earns $34 million per season on a longer deal, but remember he plays a premium defensive position and steals bases, things that don't apply to Alonso.

If you were Pete Alonso and the Mets offered up a $200 million deal would you take it or would you go out into free agency and test the waters?  Personally I think he would turn it down and if that's the case, I'd be peddling him before the 2024 season begins.  If you think he would take it then why has an offer not yet been made to the man during 2023? Frankly I think the club may get a bit more serious about exploring the trading block in ascertaining what they could get in a trade of Pete Alonso before ponying up a much higher AAV for a contract.

Tom Brennan - 2 Big Come-From-Behind Wins in the Mets Minors Last Night

We Love When Fine Hitting Results in Game-Winning Rallies

 The recent trades and promotions which have added strong offensive players to Brooklyn and Binghamton led to to a 13-12 come-from-behind…

 HIGH A WIN:

Thrusters-on-full Jett Williams had 2 hits and 3 runs scored, including forcing a 9th inning error that allowed Brooklyn to temporarily grab the lead.

His fellow on base specialist Rhylan Thomas had a walk and a key hit and RBI in extra innings, leading to a 13-10 lead that was nearly coughed up in the final home team at bat in extras, as two runs made it a nail biter win.

Ryan Clifford (21) popped another HR, and clearly has no-doubt power. Parada (11) and Consuegra (19) homered too, as did Omar DLS. YES, it was a road game.

AND A 7-6 AA WIN:

In Bingoville, a 6-1 deficit was erased with a 2 run 7th and 4 run 9th. 

Acuna, Gilbert and Jackson were newbies with good nights. Jackson smashed his 20th.

Even the lineup’s 3 sub .200 hitters (unnamed here) joined the party, going 4 for 10 and a few walks (and, naturally, 6 strikeouts between the 3, which is why they’re under .200).

Not to be overlooked is 2021’s 111th overall draft pick, JT Schwartz, who quietly has hit .291 with 35 RBIs in 191 ABs and low Ks this year.

JT NEEDS TO STAY HEALTHY TO PLAY MORE TO IMPRESS MORE. 

Just 55 games this year.

My unsolicited advice for JT is also to add 25 pounds of muscle to his listed 6’4” 215 frame and turn into more of a power hitter, like Jeff McNeil did when he added beef. 

8 HRs in 779 pro PAs is on the inadequate side for a 1B (who also has 14 errorless games in left field, and just 1 error in 35 games at 1B this year, so he has glove excellence). 

JT, though, is torching it of late: 

.333/.443/.453 in 19 August games. 

KEEP IT UP, JT.

When you have hitters who can really hit, rallies can really happen. 

I really like that, don’t you?

Reese Kaplan -- The Offseason Record Setting Free Agent Bidding

(Written prior to Ohtani's UCL tear...now the complex question becomes even tougher!)

Read baseball coverage pretty much anywhere and you can't escape one of the favorite topics for writers, fans and baseball team owners.  Never before in the history of the game has a two-way baseball player been available who wasn't a freakish novelty such as power hitting pitchers getting late inning at-bats or strong armed offensive players cleaning up for an inning or two in lost cause blowouts.  

Then came Shohei Ohtani, currently the American League's top home run hitting threat ahead of Aaron Judge and possessing the park adjusted ERA lead for the junior circuit as a starting pitcher as well.  How in the world do you calculate what he's worth when free agency arrives at the close of the 2023 World Series?  

Well, cross referencing several sources it comes down to a major "it depends" kind of answer.  Is he going to deteriorate as a pitcher?  Will arm injuries force him into exclusive DH duty in the future?  Will arm, leg, hip, ankle or other injuries cause him to adjust his swing and render him less than the modern day Babe Ruth he appears to be?  Even if he manages to avoid major injuries, how long are you willing to gamble and pay for his hitting and pitching into the future?  This free agency bidding is surely going to crack records for Average Annual Value (AAV).

As an example, outfielder and hitter Aaron Judge signed a 9 year contract for $360 million, an AAV of $40 million.  Now $40 million salaries are nothing new to the New York Mets as they had two pitchers exceeding that level when 2023 began, but they were not going to be on the hook for 8 more seasons.  Still, that comparison is invalid because Judge is only a hitter while multi Cy Young Award winners Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were only pitchers.  

So here we go again...do you evaluate Ohtani as a 29 year old slugger and pay him as a hitter alone?  If so, then the $40 to $45 million per year range is likely reasonable.  He might want that amount for 10 years or more, so a worst case scenario for the best DH in the game is $450 million

Now let's consider him only as a pitcher.  Forget the Scherzer/Verlander short term obligations and look instead to what pitchers of a similar age and pedigree get.  Given the shorter term trajectory for success due to injury probability and the need to adjust pitching style as velocity starts to diminish with age, you're probably looking at $36 million or thereabouts per year.  For a pitcher the duration limit might be about seven years.  So that would add up to $252 million.

Here's where we all remember how much we hated math class.  So is Ohtani a hitter, a pitcher or does he get paid market rate as both?  If you shortened the first contract to seven years to match what you'd expect him to deliver as a pitcher and then combine the figures for both roles, he'd be earning $80 million per season.  That is not a typo.  Seven years at $80 million per year would be a contract for $560 million.  Already that would be the highest ever total salary and AAV of any contract ever given by a very wide margin.

Of course, you're likely not paying for both rules as if they were two separate players.  Let's presume for a moment that you are able to whittle that figure down by 25% for a still eyeball popping $60 million per season.  Now the flip side of that discount is that he might demand a greater longevity.  If he pushed for two more years for a total of nine seasons at $60 million per year it would come to $540 million.  Saving $20 million is not exactly pocket change for a cold Coca Cola, but it's pretty minimal given the overall magnitude of the contract dollars involved.  He might even ask for a tenth year option at the same rate which would increase the payroll obligation from a worst case $560 million to $600 million.

The real underlying issue here is whether or not the Mets should be involved in this process.  My answer is yes, but not for the obvious reason of luring him to the east coast where he's expressed little interest in playing.  Steve Cohen is not exactly beloved by other team owners and his presence in the bidding frenzy would incentivize other clubs to overspend to secure Ohtani's long term services.  It is at that point when rumors of never before seen money being delivered to the top free agent, Cohen can smile sweetly and say, "Good luck to you.  He's the best of the best and deserves what you are willing to spend."  Then he should walk away.

Right now the Mets are not one player no matter how good he is from the next World Series contender.  Even if you consider him two players, could roughly $60 million per season be spent on other assets to deliver what they need?  

We've mentioned Yoshinobu Yamamoto as a good free agent pursuit.  He's five years younger and demonstrated even better pitching skills than Ohtani, so a discounted import from Japan (like Kodai Senga at $15 million per year) could be a better bet.  Suppose you offered up $150 million for seven years of Yamamoto from age 25 through age 32.  That's only a hair over $20 million per season and leaves you nearly $40 million to address other needs.  

On the farm you have some young hitters on the way up who might fulfill some of the offensive needs.  Or maybe you take some of that $40 million and use it to pursue some younger free agent starting pitchers since David Peterson, Tylor Megill nor Jose Butto appear to be major league ready for a contending team.  These options don't exist if you put all your eggs in the Ohtani basket.  Personally, I'm not ready to do that.