MACK – Thursday Morning Observations – Alvy, Jett, Walton, Manaea

 

Good morning.

A bunch of you have chimed in on Francisco Alvarez and his future on the Mets. This is my spin.

1. He’s a great teammate and a positive addition to both the dugout and clubhouse.

2. The pitchers on the team love how he calls a game.

3. He has worked very hard at improving his defensive game.

4. He is an excellent framer.

5. Opposing teams will always be able to successfully run on him.

6. He hits with tremendous power but will never learn to harness that power.

7. He is not Mike Piazza. More like a Jerry Grote on steroids.

8. He only has one swing... destroy the ball. This will limit his stat line.

9. For me, he’s a perfect 8th or 9th hitter.

 

Next…

 

There are writers on this site that come close to dukes over writing about off-season play by Mets players and prospects.

Me?

I hate it. I sit every day waiting for someone to leave a post on X about who was injured in a useless game.

The Edwin Diaz injury made me sick. Now, we have the team's number one prospect, running balls first into the centerfield wall.

Sure, it was the last game in the AFL season and the team needed that game to make the playoffs.

Boo hoo. You lost your closer for a season for that stupid dance. Now you could lose your future centerfielder who spent most of last season injured. Right now a right ankle strain, but what if it doesn’t heal correctly?

Do you see a pattern here with Jett Williams?

Should the Mets dish him off in hopes no one asks for his medicals? That’s not going to work. Everybody in baseball knows what is going on these days about every facet of a player’s ability, injury history, and return. The combination of this injury, plus last season’s wrist problems just about eliminates Williams from becoming trade bait this off season.

 

Next…

 

John From Albany wrote…

The New York Mets announced on the transactions tab of their Roster Page that they have signed Second Baseman Donovan Walton and have assigned him to Syracuse. 

According to FanGraphs, the 30 year old, Left-Handed Batter, has no Minor League Options left.  He spent limited time (37 games) over 4 seasons for Seattle before being traded to the San Francisco Giants in 2022.  He has been a minor league free agent in 2022 and 2023 - resigning both times with the Giants and again this year signing with the Mets.

He will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft in December.  However, since he is on the Syracuse Roster, he would need to be added to a Major League Roster if selected. 

He was drafted by the Mets in the 36th Round of the 2012 Draft but did not sign.  Seattle signed him after taking him in the 5th round of the 2016 Draft.

He slashed .306/.380/.441 in 99 AAA games last year and is a very good fielder.  Just one error in 95 games in the field including no errors at 2B, 56 games.

He also pitched 10 games for the Giants in AAA last year, 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA, 10 games, 12 innings, 11 hits, 2 Ks; His fastball barely touches 70 MPH but he did throw two scoreless innings in extra innings for a win. While he may be a good guy in a "save the pen blowout", he is not a two-way pitcher in the mold of a Shohei Ohtani.

Next...

Did any of you really think that Sean Manaea would bite on the Mets qualified offer?

If you did, I have waterfront property I'd like to sell you in Mexico Beach.

This means nothing. Manaea will sit down with the Mets brass and see if they can come to agreement on a multi-year deal.

Manaea loved being part of the electricity we call the 2024 season and I understand he fell in love with living there also.

I for one hope they can work this one out. There are five starter slots here and he fits in perfectly for one of them.

Lastly...

Going forward, I will be writing posts on the following schedule:

Tuesday 11am - Tuesday Morning Observations

Thursday 11am - Thursday Morning Observations 

Sunday 6am - Sunday Morning Observations 

Sunday 8am, 10am, 12noon - Draft Prospect targets

Paul Articulates – Arizona Fall League Wrap-up

Every year we keep an eye on the Arizona Fall League (AFL).  It is a developmental league that features invitation-only prospects from all the major league baseball teams.  The league has six teams, each of which are made up of players from the development systems of five MLB teams.  

It is an honor to be selected, because there are only a few roster spots and there are many players in each development system.  The reasons for selection vary – sometimes a team determines that a player needs some specific work, sometimes they want to see how a player stacks up against tough competition, other times it is part of the progression to a more impactful role.  But whatever the reason, if you are selected, you will be playing in a very competitive environment.  Your opportunity should not be wasted.

This year the Mets, along with the Tigers, Pirates, Giants, and Blue Jays filled the roster for the Scottsdale Scorpions.  The Mets players that were invited were:

Pitcher Jonathan Pintaro – a first year player at the age of 27, he pitched at three different levels in 2024: High A Brooklyn, AA Binghamton, and AAA Syracuse.  Pintaro was a star pitcher at Division II Shorter University in Rome, Georgia, winning National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association All-America First Team honors in 2021.  Undrafted from there, he played in the MLB draft league and independent ball until being discovered and signed by the Mets in June 2024.  Since then his rise has been rapid, and the Mets wanted to take a longer look at him by assigning him to Scottsdale.

Pitcher Jawilme Ramirez – Signed in 2021 as an international free agent, Ramirez has pitched since May 2022.  This year he pitched primarily with Brooklyn (A+) but was called up to AAA Syracuse at the end of the season and then selected for the AFL to continue pitching against tougher competition.

Infielder Jacob Reimer – Jacob was selected by the Mets in the fourth round of the 2022 MLB Draft and chose to forego his college career with the University of Washington to play for the Mets.  He has played first base and third base as well as some DH in three leagues – the Florida Coast League (FCL), Low A St. Lucie, and High A Brooklyn.

Infielder Jett  Williams – Williams is one of the Mets’ top prospects, rising quickly through the organization since being drafted with the 14th overall pick in the 2022 draft (Mets #1).  This year he was hurt in April and sat out most of the season with a wrist injury.  He only played 26 games, so the Mets assigned him to the AFL team to get some at-bats to continue his progression.

Outfielder Drew Gilbert – Drew was one of two touted prospects in the Houston Astros organization that were traded in August 2023 to the Mets for Justin Verlander.  He immediately had an impact with the AA Binghamton Mets as they surged into an Eastern League Championship round series.  This year Drew also spent quite a bit of time on the injured list and was assigned to the AFL team to get some at-bats to continue his progression.

With that introduction, the most pressing question is, “How did they do?”  In a few words, not so well.

The Scorpions finished the AFL season with a modest 16-14 record, although they surged at the end to win 8 of their last 10 games.  Our Mets position prospects treaded water around the Mendoza line, with all three in the .200 to .225 range.  They showed some aptitude in getting on base, and Williams distinguished himself on base by swiping 7 bags in 22 games.  Here are their slash lines:

Williams: .225/.376/.388

Gilbert: .208/.380/.403

Reimer: .208/.371/.358

Jett Williams was selected to the AFL all-star team roster as the starting shortstop and leadoff batter where he was 0-2 with a walk and a run scored for the NL team. 

The Mets pitchers fared a little better, with both garnering wins for the Scorpions.

Pintaro: 1-0 record, 3.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, .237 average against in 10.1 innings pitched over 4 games.  He recorded 10 strikeouts and had 6 walks and a hit batsman.

Ramirez: 2-0 record, 4.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, .300 average against in 8 innings over 8 games.  He recorded 10 strikeouts and had only one walk and a hit batsman.

Overall, our position prospects did not stand out in the AFL.  The Scorpions as a team slashed .285/.390/.473.  The pitchers outperformed the Scorpion team ERA of 4.85 and 1.46 WHIP, though neither was named to the all-star team. 

Although it would have been fun to write about Mets’ prospects dominating this Elite league, their average performance does not set off any alarm bells, as the purpose of any development ball is to evaluate player skills and improve them.  The Mets will consider this work in progress and continue to use their development system and the tools available to optimize player performance.

Tom Brennan: DeMayo's & My Mets Top 30 Prospects Compared

I saw Joe DeMayo just came out with his updated Top 30 list. 

I did mine about a month earlier, in mid-October.

Joe's list and my list were quite similar, with a few disparities explained.

I summarized his and my lists below:

JOE DEMAYO RANKING	MY RANKING	WHY I RANKED A PLAYER HIGHER OR LOWER
1. INF/OF Jett Williams	1. Brandon Sproat	Flip a coin between him and Jett
2. RHP Brandon Sproat	2. Jett Williams	See above
3. OF Drew Gilbert	3. Jonah Tong	Tong Terrific, think his ceiling is higher.
4. 1B/OF Ryan Clifford	4. Carson Benge	Benge over Clifford due to latter's K rate
5. OF Carson Benge	5. Nolan McLean	I think McLean will be terrific
6. INF Ronny Mauricio	6. Drew Gilbert	Drew is talented, bad season, now 24.
7. RHP Nolan McLean	7. Ronny Mauricio	Rust, risk of re-injury, likely to stop SBs
8. INF Jesus Baez	8. Nick Morabito	Terrific year, I do think he adds power
9. RHP Blade Tidwell	9. Boston Baro	Very good first year, solid future
10. RHP Jonah Tong	10. Luisangel Acuna	Up to # 10 on basis of his great Sept.
11. IF/OF Luisangel Acuña	11. Ryan Clifford	Ryan K’d 160 X in 129 G. Hit .228.
12. RHP Christian Scott	12. Jer. Rodriguez	Scott left off my list; already a MLB.     J Rod great performance for an 18 y/o,
13. LHP Jonathan Santucci	13. Blade Tidwell	Concerned that Tidwell got hammered at AAA. Major leaguers hit a lot better.
14. IF Jeremy Rodriguez	14. Marco Vargas	Marco hurt a lot, but he gets on base.
15. INF Marco Vargas	15. Jon Santucci	DeMayo and I are close in ranking Jon S
16. OF Nick Morabito	16. Nate Dohm	DeMayo & I are close in ranking Dohm
17. INF Boston Baro	17. Trey Snyder	DeMayo and I are close in ranking Trey.
18. RHP Dom Hamel	18. Jesus Baez	I’d have had Baez higher, if it not for meniscus injury that cost him 2 mo.
19. SS Trey Snyder	19.Daiv. Gutierrez	Gutierrez had significant improvement in 2024, so I had him ranked higher.
20. RHP Nate Dohm	20. Yov. Rodriguez	I liked that his bat was coming around at season’s end; he has a gun for an arm.
21. RHP Mike Vasil	21. AJ Ewing	I liked potential enuf to have AJ at # 21.
22. 3B Jacob Reimer	22. Mike Vasil	DeMayo and I are close in ranking Vasil.
23. INF Colin Houck	23. Jacob Reimer	DeMayo and I are close in ranking Reimer. Great eye, missed most of 2024.
24. C Daiverson Gutierrez	24. Ron Hernandez	DeMayo and I are close in ranking Ron.
25. C Yovanny Rodriguez	25. Wyatt Young	I like Wyatt. 118 games in 2024, a fine .287/.387/.358, 17/ 25 SBs. Fine fielder.
26. C Ronald Hernandez	26. Dominic Hamel	Ranked Dom lower - awful AAA year.
27. C Kevin Parada	27. Edward Lantigua	Joe DeMayo and I are close on Edward
28. OF Edward Lantigua	28. Alex Ramirez	Alex not in Joe's 30. Barely in mine due to SBs. May he wake up in 2025.
29. RHP Jack Wenninger	29. Jordan Geber	Geber as good-performing underdog
30. OF Eli Serrano III	30. Nate Lavender	Nate returns in 2025 as a high K reliever

Houck and Parada, in Joe’s Top 30 at # 23 and # 27, just fanned too darned much for me, totaling 324 Ks in 226 games in 2024, and both struggled defensively.  So I left those two Mets first round picks out of my Top 30.  Both obviously are looking to break out strongly to the upside in 2025. Hopefully, both have goals that include reducing strikeouts from 1.4 per game to one K or fewer per game.

Wenninger and Serrano, whom Joe had at 29 and 30? I had them slightly lower, and hence slightly out of my top 30.

So there you have it.  

Except for this needed footnote involving Jett, Drew and Reimer:

The injury-truncated seasons of Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, and Jacob Reimer came to a close last week as the AFL season finished up, with the AFL season being only briefly underway when I had published my Top 30 ranking in October.

The 263 AFL plate appearances between the trio boosted their season PAs to 249 (Jett), 361 (Gilbert), and 165 (Reimer), still well below a normal full season of at bats, but helpful to each of the 3 in reducing their 2024 playing time deficits.

Overall, they hit just .211 in 633 at bats, which is clearly not good. 

(BTW, I asked my brother Steve as we ate breakfast at Buttermilk’s in Patchogue what those 3 had hit during 2024. His guess? .211. BULLS EYE. He laughed and said he was going to go out and play that number.)

But the trio’s combined OBP was a solid .353 due to a combined 116 walks.  That’s a lot of free passes.  That said:

Their batting averages have to come up a lot in 2025, regardless of the OBP.

One of the most positive stats for the trio was from the least experienced of the 3.  Jacob Reimer walked 30 times while fanning just 27 times in his 165 plate appearances.  The K rate and BB rate were both excellent.  That should bode well for Reimer in 2025.

Jett Williams walked 39 times in 249 PAs, but fanned a very high 65 times. He needs to improve there.

Drew Gilbert walked 47 times and fanned 68 times in his 361 PAs so his K rate was acceptable, and walk rate was quite solid. He did smack 14 HRs. He just had a lousy average.

The trio, in their 775 PAs, had just 26 doubles, 4 triples, and 18 HRs, with just 75 RBIs. 95 runs scored were an OK total.  

So, their offensive power and batting average output, while not terrible, need to collectively rocket upwards in 2025 after their mediocre, injury-riddled 2024. 

A combined average in 2025 boosted by at least 60 points to .270 or better, with continued high levels of walks, will bring sighs of front office relief, as will taking that ratio of an extra base hit to PA ratio of only 1 in every 16 at bats up to something more like 1 in every 10 ABs in 2025.

A disappointing offensive production year from the trio, in summary, but the high walk rates were a major positive that should not be overlooked.

Above all, I want to see 1,600+ plate appearances from this trio in 2025, up from 2024’s meager 775.  Staying healthy is the key to 1600+ plate appearances.

Tom Brennan: Mets All Time HBP Leaders

Sometimes, as Kevin Pillar once found out, HBPs can be downright dangerous

Saw the chart below on Baseball Reference.  

It just, I dunno, it just kinda hit me.  How so?

Current roster Mets are ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 8th in Mets career HBPs.  What is interesting is none of those 4 is in the top 10 in Mets plate appearances.  David Wright was up 6,872 times as a Met, #1 in PAs, yet was plunked just 45 times, or once every 153 times up.  

Alonso, on the other hand, has been plunked 85 times in 3,607 PAs (1 every 42 times up).  Nimmo 80 HBPs in 3713 PAs, or once every 46 PAs.

This is a disruptive injury risk to the team. My offhand guess is that once in every 25 HBPs, a guy ends up on the IL. 

Pitchers need to see their hitters being targeted and retaliate, to protect.  

If a cop is giving out tickets visibly, many drivers slow down. 

If our pitchers nail opposing hitters in retaliation, the Mets' hitters' HBP rate should drop, too.

Of course, there are a few players who want to be HBP to drive up their OBP, such as Ron Hunt after he left the Mets, and Mark Canha.  A risky strategy, but one that can work for a player come contract time, if he manages to avoid long injuries from HBP.  If Mark Canha got hit at only a league average rate, his OBP would drop and likely his salary would, too. 

Anyway, here's the chart:

Hit By Pitch
1.	Pete Alonso	85
2.	Brandon Nimmo	80
3.	Jeff McNeil	77
4.	Michael Conforto	50
5.	Lucas Duda	48
6.	David Wright	45
7.	Ron Hunt	41
8.	Cleon Jones	39
	Francisco Lindor	39
10.	Mark Canha	37
	Cliff Floyd	37

Reese Kaplan -- Just Like Chris Bassitt, Luis We Hardly Knew You

With all of the over-the-top harangues regarding the pros and cons of obtaining Juan Soto in free agency as well as a secondary deluge of Corbin Burnes debate, there have been a great many other free agent diatribes regarding Max Fried, Blake Snell and others. 

Somehow lost in this mix is the state of the Mets starting rotation now with the news this week dropping that the questionable QO to Luis Severino is not going to be accepted as the big man is looking to obtain a greater windfall in multiple years rather than a huge push in 2025 alone.  

Hmmm…well, on the plus side, refusing the QO does leave the Mets with a draft pick from the obtaining team.  On the minus side it leaves them with Kodai Senga, David Peterson, maybe Tylor Megill and maybe Jose Butto as a starting rotation.  

Severino was an interesting first year gamble for David Stearns.  He came in at a price that was by standards today a reasonable $13 million.  While he was not the strikeout type of pitcher he sometimes showed with the Yankees, he reinvented himself as a pitcher who used the entire plate and for the most part could be expected to deliver 6 quality innings per start.  

When the word came down that the Mets were offering him a $20 million plus QO, it was a little confusing as his 3.91 suggested he was a decent 3rd or 4th starter but was being offered second starter money.  In a way I was like David Stearns hoping that he would grasp a multiyear deal elsewhere instead of taking the high 2025 salary from New York with no guarantees beyond this upcoming season.  

Now, to be fair, we hear a lot of reporting this time of the year which should be classified as fiction, yet the story seems to have wings and if he leaves I don’t think anyone will shed too many tears (particularly not Tylor Megill).  The Mets need pitching in the worst way and after a hopefully healthy Senga and continued health from David Peterson it’s a whole lot of uncertainty.  

For now it would appear there are many lower level pitching possibilities out there like Walker Buehler, ex-Met Jose Quintana and others who could fill in some of the holes in the rotation assuming that one of the big guns may or may not be added to fill out the top of the starting five.  

While everyone is indeed focused on pitching, let’s not forget the outfield dearth that needs to be addressed, the DH slot which is non-existent right now, the Pete Alonso contract and a multitude of relief pitchers who need to be wearing orange and blue when the season begins.

The important baseball dates have been given.  Decisions need to be made about tenders vs. non-tenders, accepting or declining QOs by free agents and the upcoming Winter Meetings when the general managers roll up their sleeves to get serious about trade possibilities and free agent signings.  For now it’s still mostly uncertainty, but the windfall of payroll dollars for the upcoming season leaves most fans and media somewhat enthusiastic.  

Remember 1969 - Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember 1969: Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember's Reminiscing – Volume 1, Article 6

November 19, 2024

 Today’s Birthdays

I will continue the birthday theme since I don’t have much of anything new to add to the hot stove conversation at this point.    There are just two Mets with birthdays on November 19:  Michael Tonkin and Francisco Alvarez.   Since I don’t see any way Michael Tonkin would generate much conversation, I’ll wish him a Happy Birthday and then ignore him for the rest of the article.    Let’s talk about our current starting catcher who is turning 23 today.   

 

I’m going to turn this into a reader comment interactive piece by posing a few questions:

 

a  a)    What will Francisco’s season be like in 2025?   And extrapolate that out to a career – what will his stat sheet look like when he is all done?  

    b)    He is under team control through the 2028 season with arbitration eligibility in 2026.   What path should the Mets take with his contract? 

 As long as I am here, I’ll take the first stab:

 (1)    I am optimistic that he had a learning year in 2024 and he will be the hitter we have all been wishing for in 2025.  Depending on who they get to protect him in the order (Soto?   Alonso?),  I am thinking .260/30 to 35 homers/90 RBI is a good target.  For his career, I think perhaps Yadier Molina or Salvador Perez might be a good comp for a floor with Pudge Rodriguez or Mike Piazza being a (big) stretch as the ceiling.   I seriously doubt he could get to Pudge numbers (68.7 bWAR and .292 lifetime BA) but he is just turning 23 today  😊

     (2)   I think with a good start to 2025, a 6 or 8 year buyout of his arbitration years and a few years of his late twenties would be a nice all-star break deal.   I don’t think he’ll get a Tatis type 14 year deal as a catcher. 

 

Comment away with your projections for the now 23 year old!   Happy Birthday Francisco!