Tom Brennan - A Fresh Look at In-House Back-End Starters

LOOKING OUTSIDE FOR STARTERS? TURN AROUND & LOOK IN-HOUSE.

The below are excerpts from an article I wrote on October 26, tweaked a bit, which article I recalled as we watched 41 Home Run Generation Machines like Lucas "Sky Wars" Giolito get $19 million per year for two years from the club whose Sox are Red - the Red Sox probably figured they'd offset that gargantuan outlay by saving on fireworks show costs. 

What in-house options exist that might inexpensively work?

TYLOR MEGILL:

(In his) final eight (2023) starts? 

His ERA? 3.00.  

(That ERA over a full season would give you the 6th best starter ERA in baseball.)

45 innings, 15 runs.  And he did win 9 this year.

Maybe those last 8 starts are telling us we are giving him insufficient credit for being a credible 2024 starter candidate (and give insufficient weight to how trying to pitch through injury (earlier in the season) negatively impacted his season ERA).

DAVID PETERSON:

Last 2 seasons, a gaudy 254 Ks in 217 innings. 

A slightly higher K/9 rate over the last 2 seasons than…MAX SCHERZER? 

Really? Yes, really.

In his last 15 games, Peterson’s 3.56 ERA is indicative of him figuring a lot out, leading to discontinuance of his early season poundings. 

Can he retain those lessons learned in 2024 (assuming a full recovery from hip surgery)?  Hope so.

JOEY LUCCHESI:

...Joey (in the) 2023 season...posted a...4-0, 2.89 record. 

One thing I know: 4-0, 2.89 is GOOD.

If all our pitchers went 4-0, the Mets would have finished roughly 162-0.

Just call him Joey Perfect, given his perfect 4-0.

JOSE BUTTO:

He got in just nine Mets games, and had a 3.64 ERA in 42 innings. Which is bad because…?  

Can't think of why bad.  Can you?

He was just 1-4, which in an organization with a mediocre offense and equally weak bullpen can happen when a guy pitches good. 

After all, our back-to-back-Cy Young guy was just 21-17.

So, go ahead, panic like we did last off-season, and spend a ton on a high profile F.A. pitcher who'll get hurt like all the other heavily used and abused aces do.  

Or, go cheap.  

Me? Cheap, cheap, cheap.

I would just add strongly to the pen and make do with these 4 in-house starter guys in 2024; soon enough, Vasil and Hamel and Scott will be ready to "pitch in".

And...maybe you did not realize this, but starter ERAs tend to be higher than the bullpen's ERA.

Just 7 teams had starter ERAs below 4.00.  Average MLB starter ERA? 4.47.

But 15 team's bullpen innings were below 4.00. Average MLB reliever ERA? 4.16.

So, keep that in mind, s'il vous plait.  

So...if you see a starter ERA that looks a little high, that starter has plenty of MLB company.  

C'mon, man....for starters, you can cut him some slack.

An interesting (perhaps only to me) factoid: 

MLB's ERA was 4.33 in 2023, up from 3.96 in 2022.  Most of that jump, it feels like, was due to Edwin missing the season, although his absence probably didn't raise 2023's overall ERA much at all.

In the year before the mound was raised, in 1968, MLB's ERA was 2.98.  Every pitcher was great that year.

ERAs in the first decade of the 20th century were very low.  

In 1904, baseball's ERA was 2.66, in large part because Jack Chesbro, who won 41 games that year, threw 454 innings with a 1.82 ERA.

Jack was quite the hitter-for-a-pitcher, too.  

He was career .197 in 1,100 at bats with 55 extra base hits and 82 RBIs, back (to repeat) in a decade where ERAs were VERY low, the lowest being 2.37 in 2008.

The stat that counts the most, though? Franchise winning %.

Yanks? .569

Mets?? .482

That differential is 14 more wins per year for the Bronxonians.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

SAVAGE VIEWS – HOLIDAY BLUES

 

This holiday season I decided to take my mind off the doings of my favorite team by listening to some of my favorite songs.  

I’m sure you remember: 

ALL I WANT FOR CHRISTMAS” by Spike Jones and The City Slickers.  

It goes something like this:

All I want for Christmas is Two SPs, Two SPs

 All I want for Christmas is Two SPs, Two SPs

 If I got Two SPs, I’d have a Happy New Year.

Another favorite, also by Spike Jones is “Nuttin for Christmas”.   

To paraphrase the words:

We’re getting nuttin for Christmas,

We’re getting nuttin for Christmas, because Tom and Mack are mad. 

We’re getting nuttin for Christmas and Mets fans are sad.

Switching gears, John Lennon was singing “War is Over”.

So this is Christmas

And what have you done

Another year over

A new one’s begun

Let’s hope it’s a good one

A Merry, Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year

War is over, War is over

Yamamoto’s a Bum, so is Glasgow

War is over, the Bums have won

Finally, I heard Barbra Streisand version of “I Wonder as I Wander”.

Mets fans are wandering through the Winter Wonderland wondering what happened to their Christmas presents this year.  Could it be that we will be celebrating Little Christmas on January 6^th? 

Gosh, I can’t wait to see what treasures David Stearns and his elves have in store for us.

A Happy New Year to one and all

Ray

December 31, 2023

My Spin - Five Starters That Could Be Around at 1.19

 

We talked about the five top first basemen that probably will be one of the top 20 picked in the 2024 draft before we found that the Mets will be assigned the 19th pick in the first round.

So much for that direction.

Me? 

I ditch the "best player available plan... God, please not another middle infielder... and target into the one position they have no top prospects in their chain... a front of the rotation starter.

There are some pitchers that should go earlier. Pure pitcher names like Seguro HS (AZ) LHP Cam Caminiti, and Ankeny HS (IA) RHP Brody Brecht should be gone. If not, strike up the band.

But these next five weekend starters could be around for the Mets to pick from:

LHP Hagen Smith - 

           Smith famously threw six no-hitters his senior year of high school, completely dominating the competition. That’s continued at Arkansas over his collegiate career, slicing and dicing up the competition with flashes of brilliance.

The book on Smith is deception and loud stuff. His delivery makes it extremely difficult to pick up his pitches out of the hand. It’s a herky-jerky, full-limbed delivery with moving parts, but that’s not to say it’s full of effort or that it isn’t repeatable. It is. It’s just unconventional with uncomfortable angles for the opposition.

Smith throws the kitchen sink. A four-seam fastball, a sinker, a slider, a split-finger and a very nascent curve. He’s primarily a fastball-slider-split guy, though there’s pitchability here and a willingness to mix it up when the opportunity calls for it. His fastball has brushed 100 mph in side sessions, however he more comfortably lives in the 93-95 range and will grab the upper-90s in games on occasion. The real weapon is the splitter, a massive fading parachute that’s tormented hitters for the better part of three years. It flashes plus and is consistently an above average weapon. Smith doesn’t spin the ball particularly well, so improving that may be a developmental goal, but he does know how to shape a slider and that pitch too will sit above average and flash plus consistently in starts. 

Smith projects a potential mid-rotation lefty if he can get his control and command of the ball up to more consistent levels. There’s a lot of Josh Hader in the overall profile here, and whoever drafts him may elect to throw him out of the bullpen quickly in his career and get him to the big leagues sooner rather than later. Should that be the case, Smith could live 96-98 with two real weapons capable of getting both lefties and righties out.

LHP Josh Hartle - 

                HEIGHT: 6-4        WEIGHT: 195

                BAT/THROW: L-L

Josh Hartle had a lot of money offered his way in the 2022 MLB Draft, but wanted the opportunity to grow and develop inside the Wake Forest Pitching Lab. That appears to have been a good idea. Hartle is a tall, lean, projectable lefty with a prospect pedigree and the ability to pound the zone. He's a five-pitch guy with a sinker-slider-changeup arsenal, working in a curveball and cutter that are usable. 

Hartle lives in the low-90s but projects to throw harder with added strength. His slider is a sweeper with huge depth and the changeup really fades back off the slider tunnel. Those two offerings have produced immense whiff rates in the ACC. Hartle has a good frame and can really mix it up. If his stuff ticks up, he has first round qualities.

RHP Thatcher Hurd - 

                HEIGHT: 6-4        WEIGHT: 205        BAT/THROW: R-R

Hurd has the makings of a potential number one overall pick with a strong mixture of size, athleticism and pure stuff on the mound. He battled a back injury during his freshman campaign at UCLA, but a now-healthy Hurd has his sights set high on a big junior year at LSU. 

Still reasonably green on the mound, Hurd can rush it up to 96, sitting 92-94 over most extended innings. His best pitch is the slider, and it's a banger. Hurd can induce north of 3000 rpm on his breaking ball, featuring strong depth and some sweep as well. He's more than willing to throw it too, posting rates around 30% thus far. Hurd also throws a deeper curveball in the upper-70s with tremendous depth and a ton of sweep. It projects a true plus curveball. 

If Hurd can stay healthy and the velocity continues to tick up like many expect it will, it's top-of-the-rotation upside. He's battled command and control woes over the course of his collegiate career as well, so there's work to be done. But it's hard not to like the guy.

RHP Joey Oakie - 

        6-3  195  Ankeny HS (IL)

Oakie is a hometown Iowa commit with big, projection stuff and two-way potential. Most feel his future lays on the mound where his fastball really plays. He'll sits 94-96 in early innings, settling in 92-93 out of a low launch with tremendous spin and life at the top rail with bat-missing traits. Oakie projects to throw a lot harder due to fairly elite scapular load during his arm action, as well as top-of-his-class explosive athleticism. The slider here could end up plus too. It's a sweeper that'll approach 3000 rpm coming out of the exact same tunnel as the heater. 

Oakie throws his sweeper in the mid-80s with tremendous arm speed and conviction. As he learns to add a fading changeup that can live off the fastball, he'll be an extremely tough look on both lefty and righty bats. He's loose and repeatable, staying in the strike zone on most occasions. 

This is one of the best arms in the class.

RHP Ryan Sloan - 

        6-4  220  York Community HS (IL)

        Sloan, a Wake Forest commit, has a live arm. He’ll work up into the mid-90s and settle in 92-93 over longer outings. His fastball has a ton of arm-side run. He’s been known to create firewood. Sloan’s sweeping low-80s slider tunnels perfectly off the heat, and it’s been a whiff magnet featuring solid depth. There’s a mid-80s changeup here too, though he’s only used it against LHH and he’s been primarily a two-pitch artist.

Sloan and his 6-foot-4-inch, 220-pound frame figure to add considerably more velocity as he matures. This is what a premium high school arm looks like.

Tom Brennan: Updated Look at 2017 Met Draft; Giolito vs Megill

 

I thought it might be fun to look back at: 

1) How Mets kiddies drafted in rounds 1 thru 5 panned out, 2012-23, and 

2) Which of all the Mets' picks actually made it to the dance. 

Today?  

The Mets' 2017 Draft: 

Round 1 (20th overall) goes to big lefty David Peterson.

He has had some success, but ups and downs. I still think at least moderate success lies ahead for the southpaw Peterson.

Round 2?  Listening to the Brennan refrain of "Drafting power arms and power bats", the Mets no doubt said, "Why not?"  They selected Mark Vientos. We can only hope he soon is Alonso II. His 2023 season was not terrible, but not terrific, either.

Round 3 Quinn Brodey struck out too much in the minors to succeed, and courageously gave up the bat and toed the mound in 2023. The pitching experiment started well, but ultimately did not succeed.

Round 4 - righty Tony Dibrell has had TJS, and failed to achieve anything more than minor league mediocrity. 21-24, 4.58 lifetime, just turned 28, after a bad 2023.

Round 5 - Matt Winaker - failed to hit. No longer in the system.

37th rounder Josh Walker made the Mets in 2023, but will his brief cameo lead to future success?

NOT A GOOD DRAFT YEAR. 

It can still become a fair draft year if Peterson and Vientos both get better.

Next article? 2018 Draft.

But before I go:

Lucas Giolito signs with Red Sox in their hitters' park for 2 years and a whopping $38.5 million.

After an 8-15, 4.88 ERA in which he allowed 41 HRs in 188 innings.

DARN!! HOW DID WE MISS THIS GEM??

Baseball Reference for 2024 projects Giolito at 166 IP, 9-11, 4.66 ERA, 30 HRs allowed. At $19 million.

Makes me ask myself a question: 

Assuming he is healthy, can't our very own Tylor Megill do that, or better?

Megill is projected by Baseball Reference for 2024 at 8-7, 4.65 in 124 innings, with 19 HRs, and 44 in 263 innings in his career.  Very comparable to fellow big man Giolito.  But a little better, especially in HRs allowed.

Last year, Megill was a relatively superior 9-8, 4.70, 126 innings, 18 HRs.  

So, he seems far less HR-prone than Giolito, and had (despite Megill's struggles at times) a better year than Giolito.

After all, I ask myself, would you prefer a 9-8 pitcher, or an 8-15 pitcher?  

I'll take the 9-8 guy.  And save a ton of $$.

Megill made "just" $750,000 in 2023.  Meanwhile, Giolito made $10.4 million, before his hefty raise for 2024 for "outstanding performance", and his 2024 salary no doubt will be more than 10 times as high as that of Megill.

Bang for the Buck? Give me Tylor Megill. 

If Megill improves and stays healthy, he can look forward to turning free agent in 2028.  That is a ways off, which is good from a budgeting standpoint for the Mets.  But...

What would he then get paid?  Back up the Brinks truck.

And I dunno...BR projects him at 8-7 in 2024.  But I say 11-9. Why not?

Reese Kaplan -- What If Everything Goes Right With the Offense?

If you talk to fellow Mets fans there is rapidly growing uncertainty about what to expect with the 2024 team.  Some are beyond frustrated with the seeming inactivity to improve the roster with prime level talents.  Others are preaching patience while awaiting the final four roster spots to be added between now and the beginning of Spring Training.  The truth is not really known but the current seeming inertia is harder to accept than good or bad decisions.

Let's play optimist for a moment and try to ascertain a glass half full scenario for the offense.  

Pete Alonso obviously has major home run talent and is a feared hitter in the middle of the lineup as achieving the century mark in RBIs has come to be expected.  Last season's .217 batting average was especially bad yet the power hitting remained formidable.  The contract issues are another matter entirely.  Let's assume he reverts to a 2022 type of season when he hit .271 with 40 HRs and a league leading 131 RBIs.  Suppose Alonso repeated that level of prowess?

Jeff McNeil got rewarded for his 2022 batting title season with a contract extension to compensate him for the Tony Gwynn-like output he provided.  That season he hit .326 with 9 HRs and 62 RBIs which were an acceptable level having routinely hit outside of the middle of the batting order.  Last year like most of the Mets he underperformer with his average dipping down to an otherwise respectable .270, but after a 56 point drop many were concerned that he just wasn't as good as had been the belief which led to the contract.  Chances are he will rebound as his career batting average is a robust .298.

Francisco Lindor has gotten over the initial misgivings fans had when he didn't arrive and appear to be the $341 million dollar man.  He had a commendable 2023 with 31 HRs, 98 RBIs and 31 stolen bases to go with a substandard .254 batting average.  Given his power, speed and defense people were willing to look past that last number as his season was worth 6.0 WAR.  That season followed a 2022 year in which he delivered at a 5.5 level.  He is certainly earning his pay.

Brandon Nimmo when drafted was thought to be a bit of an odd choice with limited competitive baseball on his young resume, but he's gotten past a myriad of health problems to become a dependable top of the order player.  For the second year in a row he hit .274 but this time upped his power output to include 24 HRs jumping up from 16 and 68 RBIs which is pretty impressive considering he hits leadoff.  

Perhaps no one is more important for the offensive production for the upcoming season than hopefully fully recovered Starling Marte.  Yes, it's hard to remember what he's capable of doing after a forgetful 2023 fraught with the injury hampered output of just a .248 average with 5 HRs and 28 RBIs in little more than half a season of playing.  The one surprising positive number was 24 stolen bases over those 315 ABs.  Think back to 2022 and then he hit .292 with 16 HRs and 62 RBIs.  Imagine for a moment he returns to that level of production.

No one knows exactly what to expect from catcher Francisco Alvarez, but his forced promotion to the majors at age 21 demonstrated that he is for real.  In 382 ABs he hit just .209 but hit 25 HRs and drove in 63.  Over the course of a full season it's certainly reasonable to assume he could advance to 30 HRs and 80 RBIs, particularly if his batting average improves.  

So given all of these positives that could indeed happen, it's understandable that for now the remaining three offensive players Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and an as yet unidentified outfielder could add significantly to the hitting other teams' pitchers must face.  If, for example, Baty hits 20 HRs and Vientos slugs 25 then those numbers are a great improvement of what was seen last year.  

The big mystery right now is the outfielder (assuming Vientos is assigned as the DH).  The numbers 4 and 5 have been addressed with D.J. Stewart and Tyrone Taylor, but who will join Nimmo and Marte in the starting lineup?  It is assumed the club wants someone who can provide protection in the batting order for Alonso and Lindor.  That kind of bat won't come cheaply but as of now the club hasn't really spent anything of signficance.  Here's hoping David Stearns has both a plan and the ability to execute it.

Tom Brennan - Stupid Franchise? You Decide

The Mets have had a few shrewd, bright moments over the decades. 

Like when they got Keith Hernandez, RA Dickey, Bartolo Colon, David Cone.

More often than not, though, they had made dumb decisions. 

Like almost winning the World Series in 2015, in large part because of the Daniel Murphy ascension, and then not paying a relatively paltry amount to keep him, instead letting him go to a very tough Nationals team.  

Had Murph stayed a Met, likely the 2016 and 2017 seasons would have come out entirely better for the Mets than they did.  

Other mistakes ensued, like Travis d'Arnaud being dumped from a team with poor catching talent, but let's move forward to the near-present.

In 2022 and 2023, the Mets spent a supertanker load of cash on two old, future HOF vets, Herr Scherzer and Vladimir Verlander.  

The Mets assumed that surely, the sands of time would not trickle through the hourglass for this immortal duo, and that they would somehow remain supremely great into their 40s.

Scherzer was signed by the Mets for $130 million over 3 seasons. His $43.3 million per season exceeded the then-MLB all-time record for average annual value.

He went a solid 20-9, 3.02 over 1 2/3 seasons for the Mets; certainly not bad, but not $130 million worth of "good".  

He was then traded to the Rangers in exchange for prospect Luisangel Acuna (Matata), who might turn into a star with a trouble-free philosophy, but might also turn into just a solid utility player, and for cash relief in 2024. Spotrac shows the Rangers on the hook for only $13 million of Scherzer's $43+ million salary in 2024 from a salary cap perspective.

Since all of Max's salary was subject to heightened luxury taxes, his net cost to the Mets in exchange for 20-9 and Acuna will end up being roughly $200 million. Unless Acuna becomes a superstar, this Mets signing of Scherzer wasn't terrible, cost-wise, but I'd say it wasn't great.

My brother disagreed, citing the Mets' dearth of talent and desperate situation.  And Max almost helped them to the division title in 2022, he added.

Verlander's Mets deal? Per ESPN at the time: 

"Verlander signed a two-year, $86.7 million deal with the free-spending Mets. His contract also included a $35 million option for 2025 that vests if he accumulates at least 140 innings in 2024, a circumstance that scared teams away. The Mets will pay $35 million out of the $58 million remaining on Verlander's deal in 2023 and 2024 and $17.5 million of his 2025 option if it vests" (which I assume it will).

Thus, the Mets' outlay for JV will be $80 million.  

For that, the Mets got 6 wins, 5 losses, and a 3.15 ERA in 16 starts, and also Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford.  

Perhaps not that bad a deal, except when you consider that the luxury tax will likely turn that $80 million outlay into $150 million.  Unless Gilbert and Clifford become stars fairly soon, that Mets' Verlander signing?  Well...it sucked, too.  Even if seemed swell at the time.

Worse, the $42 million the Mets owe in 2024 to Scherzer and Verlander will almost certainly keep them sequestered in luxury tax hell, a true hindrance when considering the signing of new crops of the top free agents.  

The $17.5 million due to Verlander in 2025 continues that brutal hangover.

Add to that the $8 million still due Mighty Miserable McCann in 2024 from his terrible signing, and Spotrac shows the Mets are being crushed by $65 million in payroll costs (for tax purposes) that are no longer on the team.

And are on the hook for nearly $21 million due to sore-groined Starling Marte, in both 2024 and 2025, and the luxury tax pain is almost inescapable.

Marte was fine for 5 months of 2022 in the first year of his expensive 4 year deal, but his injuries and advanced age (35 in 2024, 36 in 2025) leave one to conclude that the Mets, after effectively overpaying for Marte's low production in 2023, may well get nowhere near full salary value for those two Marte seasons.  

I often think about a similar former "decent power + blazing speed" Mets player, Jose Reyes, who I thought would slowly decline into his late 30s, but instead found his career plummeting to its rapid conclusion at age 35.  Marte perhaps could become a similar age-related casualty.

McCann since the Mets (and then Baltimore) acquired him has had 756 at bats, 32 doubles, 19 HRs and 90 RBIs while hitting .220. 

Not terrible, actually, I have to admit.  It felt worse to me.  

Terrible, though, was the Mets eating 80% of the cost of the last two years of his contract to get Baltimore to take him, while the Mets signed Omar Narvaez to replace sweet baby James for a lot of $$ and even lighter 2023 production.   

And McCann's and Marte's salaries? 

Their committed $$ amounts result in not only huge salary cost, but beaucoups accompanying luxury tax.

Luxury taxes are a brutal penalty for any team, even a Cohen team, to deal with, and the impact on first round pick damage is an added horror.

There also is the negative draft impact of exorbitant spending.

"Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead."

What a mess. What (in hindsight) a stupid way to run a franchise. 

Hindsight is easy for a guy as near-sighted as me.

Fast-forward to today, when premier free agents look at a financially-hobbled, performance-hobbled Mets team that won 75 in 2023 and seems in flux, and those free agents think, "I will feign interest and get the Mets' best offer and then see if the teams I really would consider can match it." 

Bad decisions can lead to long-term franchise malaise.  

There is a reason it has been almost 4 decades since the Mets won a World Series. 

Many reasons, actually.  

Stupid decisions being the main one. Bad decisions being another.  Add in bad luck and you have the trifecta.  

Mack, no doubt, can think of several more.

Hopefully, Stearns is the baseball genius we all hope he'll be.

KINER AND GUILLORME

No, not Ralphie Boy Kiner, not the one who dated Elizabeth Taylor, but Isaiah Kiner-Falefa. 

Kiner II just signed a 2 year, $15 million deal as a free agent with the Blue Jays, indicating there is real perceived value in that Falefa player.

Kiner-F in Baseball Reference is projected to put up a 2024 slash line of:

.261/.317/.362

Luis Guillorme was dropped off the 40 man by the Metsies.  Perhaps he could have been retained on the 40 man, and then traded. I don't see why not, if Baseball Reference projections are at all reasonable. 

For Luis G, Baseball Reference is projected to put up a 2024 slash line of:

.259/.337/.371

Compare those 2 slash lines.  That of Luis is a little better than the man who grew up in Kiners Korner.

Another puzzling thing for me.  Guillorme only made $1.6 million in 2023, so he'd be a lot cheaper in 2024 than $7.5 million.  Maybe low $2 millions.

Any opinions on whether they should have retained and later traded Luis instead?

Reese Kaplan -- There's Still a Lot of Work to Do

2024 is almost upon us and the Mets have obtained one theoretically starting capable player in injury rehab candidate Lusi Severino.  Adrian Houser is someone who is being sold to us as a great addition, and while he's no Cy Young candidate, the fact is that his career ERA of 4.00 would push him well ahead of the in-house options.  The bullpen has yet to feel reinforced.  And let's not even think about the offensive side of the ledger.

OK, so as an early New Year's resolution I will look forward to what can be done rather than backwards at what failed to occur.  

There are a lot of improvements already made to the farm system, the development of younger players working their way up the ladder and in particular the manner in which pitching is analyzed at the several month old lab.  These changes should manifest into great positives in the future, but the question remains what is being done to help the present?

Rather than focus on the pitching that the club still needs, today let's look at how to address the need for improved hitting.  The current linup has three well known and predictable bats in Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo.  Then you have recuperating Starling Marte who could play like it was 2022 or again like it was 2023.  

Francisco Alvarez showed great ability for his forced rookie introduction to the majors but the batting average was still nowhere near it needs to be.  Jeff McNeil was having a major letdown in 2023 after winning the NL batting title in 2022, but few expect it is a sign of permanent regression.  

The DH role has been a black hole since the league approved its use.  There are three approaches to take:

Play the Kids

With Eduardo Escobar gone and Ronny Mauricio in rehab, that pretty much leaves the third base job to youngster Brett Baty.  To be fair, Baty has demonstrated during his minor league career an elite level of hitting yet no one saw any of that materialize in 2023.  Some are fed up and say trade him away.  

The problem with this approach is that his value is pretty much in the basement and you wouldn't get much in return.  That move would also make third base another great vacancy that was not answered well between Howard Johnson and David Wright, nor since then.  The better approach would be to show full confidence in Baty but have a spare part on the bench just in case.  

Mark Vientos also has shown throughout his minor league career some serious run production capability.  In his favor came his hot September whe the long balls were flying out of the park to suggest a 30+ homer capability.  The problem is that he has not gotten sufficient with his glove anywhere on the diamond.  He is rigid and unimpressive at third base and he's totally blocked across the field at first base.  He's not fleet enough afoot to think about transitioning him to the outfield. 

Consequently DH may be his most suitable role, but you can't yank him out of the position the first time he goes 0-4.  It's not as if he's trying to outdo the legends of Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz.  He merely has to be better than Darin Ruf and Daniel Vogelbach.  Even the most cynical fans would likely concede he couldn't possibly be worse.

Add 1-2 Year Role Players to Tide the Team Over

Now here's where it gets interesting.  There are still a number of potent bats available in free agency which won't bankrupt the team of its now formidable group of prospects.  Two names shoot to the top of the list -- J.D. Martinez and Justin Turner.  One is much more expensive and one has an early career team affiliation.  Let's have a brief look.

Martinez has long moved himself from outfielder to designated hitter and never looked back.  Save for a hiccup in ability during the 2022 season.  (2020 was nothing to write home about either, but many players around the league didn't adjust well to the delayed and then abbreviated schedule).  

In 2022, though, he had a full year to play like, well, J.D. Martinez and he slipped off the cliff by his elite standards.  He batted .274 which was a little lower than usual, but the power numbers showed just 16 HRs and 62 RBIs.  That output was reminiscent of a full time baseball player earning his living, but not of a then five time All Star with a pair of Silver Sluggers.  Many thought old age had caught up to him and it would be all downhill from there.

Well, the Dodgers in 2023 found out that Martinez during his age 35/36 season was far from finished.  He made his sixth All Star team and finished the year looking like a true middle of the order bat, hitting .271 with 33 HRs and 103 RBIs.  How would Lindor and Alonso like that kind of protection in the lineup?   

His cost and contract duration are going to be higher on an AAV and will likely require 2 years with an option for a 3rd.  He was paid a highly reasonable $10 million for his output in 2023.  Expect him to command a 50% increase in pay which means at minimum a $30 million contract for 2024 and 2025.  That's not chicken feed but if he can approxiimate the same output it would be a bargain indeed.  Starling Marte makes more than that.

Then there's fan favorite Justin Turner who has also shown plenty of hitting ability during his days with the Mets and then later with the Dodgers and Red Sox.  His accomplishments include a pair of All Star game appearances and a pair of top 15 level votes for the league's MVP award.  He's not quite at the J.D. Martinez level of  play, but at a career average of 20 HRs and 80 RBIs he would be a big improvement.  His 2023 was rock solid at age 38/39.  

He would likely be seeking about $10 million for a season in which he'd turn 40.  Some might argue that he is a smarter choice given his age requiring likely a single year investment and he could provide that emergency backup to play 3B in the event Baty stumbles again.

There are other older players available to consider who might command a short term deal but most have shown multi year decline in production and probably not worth consideration here. 

Invest in Long Term Solutions

This approach has probably gotten the least play as folks debate the best way to proceed.  While everyone is aware that the club has access to a lot of solutions in free agency next year, the fact remains that they need to think long term about the team's overall offensive ability.  

As of now Pete Alonso could be leaving as a free agent and you don't find 40 HR/120 RBI abilities from players like Joey Wendle nor year 4 of Starling Marte.  Consequently it might make sense to invest in a younger, longer term option for DH who could help not only in 2024 but in subsequent years as well.

The first name that comes up is Teoscar Hernandez, a proven slugger who could shoehorn into the current lineup but will continue to provide ability for the next 3-4 years.  Right now at age 31 he averages a season of .261 with 32 HRs and 92 RBIs.  He does swing and miss an awful lot, but the positives may outweigh the negatives.  This right handed power hitter will likely command a 4-year $64 million contract.  That average of $16 million per season is not terrible and the run production is for real.

The second one who comes up frequently is Jorge Soler most recently of the Miami Marlins.  This big right handed hitter is good for 30 HRs and north of 80 RBIs, though his batting average has always been a struggle to hit over .240.  

He is a little bit older than Hernandez but likely will receive less money given his more modest production.  He doesn't strike out nearly as much but then he also doesn't produce at the same level.  He was a bit overpriced at $15 million last year and might for a 4-year deal look to get about the same AAV or slightly less.  

While neither of these players are guys you would hit cleanup in your lineup, they certainly seem like they would offer more than previous entries into the DH mold.  The question remains could a near minimum wage Mark Vientos approximate what you would get from Martinez, Turner, Hernandez or Soler?  

Right now it would seem that a Turner reunion is the most likely way for the team to progress, but other options indeed do exist.    

Mike's Mets - (Really) Getting Better

 

By Mike Steffanos

Although it hasn't always been easy to believe, I have to admit it's getting better for the New York Mets.

When I was very young, The Beatles were still together making music. I remember when the album Sgt. Pepper's Lonely Hearts Club Band was released in May 1967 when I was 8 years old, just in time to dominate the airwaves in the ensuing summer, which would become famous as the Summer of Love. It was the first rock music I was ever aware of, living in a house where the music of my Mom's generation and my Grandmother's Italian music dominated our stereo. There were many classic songs on Sgt. Pepper's, including the title song, "With a Little Help from My Friends," "Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds," and "A Day in the Life." When I got a little older and started acquiring my own music, the album remained in rotation of the stuff I listened to throughout my teen years.

One song from Sgt. Pepper's that has stayed with me was "Getting Better." It was a straightforward rock song on an album that tended more to the psychedelic stuff that continued a transition from the early Beatles sound that began with Revolver, the band's previous album. "Getting Better" was primarily written by Paul McCartney, with a disturbing verse added by John Lennon where he confessed to being "cruel to [his] woman" both physically and mentally. This darkened the song considerably and forever complicated my feelings about Lennon's genius, although John did conclude this somber admission on a more hopeful note:

Man I was mean but I'm changing my scene

And I'm doing the best that I can

The main part of the song was brighter and more optimistic. Paul's lightness contrasting with John's darkness was part of the tension of The Beatles, and this song showcased that edginess. It was the optimism of the early verses that stayed with me the most throughout the ensuing decades of my life:

I've got to admit it's getting better (Better)

A little better all the time (It can't get no worse)

Those words have played in my head during many tough times. Sometimes, it was just whistling in the dark, trying to convince myself that things would get better when I really didn't believe that to be true. Other times, I felt optimistic that things were about to turn around.

In my Mets fandom, I have resorted to trying to believe things were getting better many times over the years. From time to time, things actually did improve. Still, those good times tended to end all too quickly. The last years of the Wilpon era stand out as truly dark times when the owners had little money to conceal their inability to grow a real organization. It was great fun when the club made it to the 2015 World Series. Still, it was hard to see it as anything more than just a brief, fabulous stretch of baseball where everything went right. When the penurious owners allowed Daniel Murphy to sign with their chief Division rivals in Washington, I just knew things wouldn't end well, and they didn't.

To finish reading this article on Mike's Mets, please click here.

Paul Articulates – Things you didn’t know about Binghamton

When Mets fans hear, “Binghamton” they immediately think of the AA franchise that has been a stalwart partner in the Mets’ talent pipeline for decades.  So many major leaguers have spent time in Binghamton from lifelong Mets like David Wright to folks that pass through on their way to stardom in a different uniform like Jason Isringhausen.

But unless you have followed the franchise closely over the years or have read up on historians’ views in the literature, I would wager that there are many things you don’t know about the history of baseball in the Binghamton area.  I thought I knew quite a bit until I found a copy of “Baseball in Broome County” by Marvin A. Cohen and Michael J. McCann under my Christmas tree this year.

Before I get into some of the interesting history, you should know that the AA Binghamton club has been one of the longest running farm teams of the New York Mets.  The team as we know it today debuted in 1992 as the Binghamton Mets.  Their first game was played on April 19th, 1992 in a brand new Binghamton Municipal Stadium that had been built in just 9 months when the city was informed that they would become the new home of the club formerly known as the Williamsport Bills.  

That first year was a huge success, as they won the Eastern League championship behind ace Bobby Jones.  Two years later, they won their second Eastern League championship behind Bill Pulsipher, who pitched a no-hitter in game two of the best-of-five series.  

If you were following the Mets in the 1990s, you will remember the excitement surrounding the crop of starting pitchers coming up through the minors led by Bobby Jones and the trio of Pulsipher, Isringhausen, and Paul Wilson who were known as “Generation K”.  Unfortunately injuries slowed most of them down, and only Isringhausen became an impact player as the closer for the St. Louis Cardinals.

There are so many players (over 800) who have worn the uniform of the Binghamton franchise which was known as the Binghamton Mets from 1992 to 2016 and is now known as the Binghamton Rumble Ponies.  This post would be much longer than you could bear if I mentioned even a fraction of them but here’s one that will trigger your interest.  

In a brief appearance from 2002-2004, a fellow named Ronald Acuna roamed the Binghamton outfield for 264 games.  Ronald of course was the father of Atlanta Brave Ronald Acuna Jr. and current Binghamton Rumble Pony LuisAngel Acuna.

In all, 71 players who have passed through Binghamton have walked across the lines onto a MLB field in uniform to realize the dream that so many ballplayers have in common.  Here is a list of those that have made it:

Despite the lengthy 31 season tenure of the Mets’ AA franchise in Binghamton, it is just a sliver of Binghamton baseball history which dates all the way back to 1871.  On August 25, 1871 the Binghamton Crickets played a game against the Norwich Comets marking the inaugural contest in this baseball town.  Back then games were played without baseball gloves which led to some highly offensive contests.  

By 1892 the Binghamton Bingos as they were called then won the International League title behind a third baseman named Wee Willy Keeler.

Many years and many innings later, in 1923, the team known as the Triplets was formed which served as the area’s professional baseball franchise and became a farm club of the New York Yankees.  Names like Joe “Flash” Gordon, Clete Boyer, Steve Kraly, Joe Pepitone, and Ken Harrelson jump from the pages of the Triplets’ history book.

In all, professional baseball has been a steady presence in the Binghamton area and the current Rumble Ponies team with its trove of prospects is sure to add some pages to its history.

I’ll leave you with one other piece of Binghamton trivia: the subject of Ernest Lawrence Thayer’s iconic poem “Casey at the Bat” was Binghamton native Daniel Casey, who played in the 1890’s.

Tom Brennan - Updated Retrospective on Mets 2016 Draft; Major Announcement

 

Yep, it's me again. Bringing holiday cheer from a gloomy, roomy Citifield. 

I got some great Christmas decorations at my favorite shopping outlet, A Wreath o' Franklin, where did you get yours? 

Anyway, I thought it might be fun over a stretch of a few laborious weeks to get all retrospective and what-not, and look back at: 

1) How Mets kiddies drafted in rounds 1 thru 5 panned out, 2012-2023, and 

2) Which of all the Mets' picks actually made it to the dance. 

Today?  We go all retro on the Mets' 2016 Draft 

Round 1 - Justin Dunn - the hard-throwing righty was traded to Seattle, but has gone 6-7, 4.44 in 32 starts as a Mariner. Barely pitched in 2022, out all of 2023, now a free agent.  Already?? Time flies.

Comp Round - hard-throwing lefty Anthony Kay - also traded.  He has not been lights out so far, but is 4-2 in his 86 inning MLB career, despite a 5.50 ERA, mostly with the Blue Jays. Just 17 innings in 2022 and 2023. Released by the Mets; in a pitching-strapped game, he should, one would suppose, have a chance to resurrect his so-far-limited career in 2024.

Round 2 - Pete.  Pulse-pounding Pete.  Prodigious Pete.  Pay-me Pete.

He is a consummate power bat, unlike any home-grown Mets’ bat ever. I recommend drafting power arms and power bats. The Mets normally don't listen to me, but in this case, they did. You of course know he is their most prolific home-grown power hitter ever, so let's move on.

Round 3 - Blake Tiberi.  They veered sharply away from "power bat Pete" into what turned into this wasted low average, low power pick.  Tiberi ended up with less than a HR every 100 plate appearances and hit .239.  Verdict?

Bust pick in Round 3.

Round 4 - Michael Paez - short guy with power, he just did not hit enough:  Also, like Tiberi, hit just .239, but a HR approximately every 50 at bats.  Verdict?

Bust pick in Round 4.

Round 5 - Colby Woodmansee - looked fairly decent in his 2016 debut, but slid to .151 in 2017. Verdict?

A complete bust. He then disappeared quickly.   

9th round Colin Holderman was converted by the Mets in 2022 into Daniel Vogelbach. Holderman was a solid reliever in 58 outings for Pittsburgh in 2023.  Verdict?

Wish we had him back.

In round 20, the Mets drafted Carlos Cortes. He didn't sign then. In 2018 he went in the 3rd round, and got 3rd round $$. He showed real promise, then disappointed in 2022 and 2023, and seems to be topping out in AAA. Decent pop. Mediocre hitter and fielder. Long shot to become a major leaguer, in my opinion, given the team’s other minor league IF/OF players.

In summary, Pounding Pete Alonso alone made this a successful draft; Dunn and Kay added to that success, though only in a marginal way.  Holderman, once he got his several minors injuries out of the way, has pitched well, and has made this a good draft.

Next up? 2017 Draft retrospective.

Were you as excited as I was to read this announcement?

The Mets officially announced Yamamoto’s signing.  

In the team press release, Yamamoto said:

 “I’d like to thank everyone in the Orix organization, the Mets organization and all the people close to me who have given me so much support throughout this free-agent process.  

I am truly excited to wear Mets garb and can’t wait to play in front of a packed Citifield.”

Well, we Metsies all wished he'd have said that. 

News alert: he didn't say that. I just made it up.  Fake news.

It was the Dodgers.  They signed him.  Palm trees. 100+ wins. 

Sunshine galore.

Drat!

But you knew that. All I can think to say is:

RE-SIGN JORDAN YAMAMOTO INSTEAD! ARE YOU WITH ME?

OR JUST BE GLAD WE GOT ADRIAN HOUSER. "YO, ADRIAN!"