MACK - Thursday Morning Observations

 

The Mets signed RH relief pitcher, Chris Devenski, to a minor league contract with a camp invite.

            Currently 33-years old

            2021 - TJS

            2024: AAA – 23-app, 2.35-ERA

            51.5% of his pitches are changeups

            Tied for the 26^th highest whiff % - 36.1%

            Career ERA: 3.98 – 2.5-BB/9  9.3-K/9

                        Mack – No risk here…

 

 

Mike Mayer (@mikemayer22) posted at 9:02 AM on Sun, Oct 27, 2024:

Jett Williams went 2-for-4 on Saturday night in Arizona Fall League action. He played his second straight game in center field. Drew Gilbert went 1-for-4 as the left fielder.

 

Mack – Look… the Mets need a centerfielder that can both field and hit for power. That’s what centerfielders do.

There are three internal candidates… Williams, Gilbert, and Luisangel Acuna.

I thought Gilbert would win this battle and would be in center at Citi on the 2025 opening day. He won’t be. Only one of these three (Acuna) has Queens experience, but that is all in the infield.

Gilbert has the most pop. Williams has the sparkle. And Acuna has the DNA and speed.

Me?

Start 2025 with Jeff McNeil in left, move Brandon Nimmo back to center, and play Starling Marte in right and sit back and see which one of these guys can stand up around the all-star break.

I was a proponent on playing Acuna in center, but I have changed my mind. He is my future second baseman on this team.

This leaves Gilbert and Williams to fight it out come spring.

 

 

Prospect or Not –

            Mets News and Links       @JohnFromAlbany

Mets Prospect Jacob Reimer does it with the glove and the bat, 2 nice plays at 3B and a 2-Run HR.

Mack –

            I’m just not sure how to categorize this guy.

            He has versatility. Plays third base, first, and leftfield.

            He’s young. Will play 2025 as a 21-year old.

            4^th round draft pick in 2022, out of high school.

            In three seasons, he’s stated:

 437-AB, 8-HR, 49-RBI, 62-BB, 84-K, 3-SB, .265

                        Last season for Brooklyn he stated:

                                    46-AB, 0-HR, .196

                        Injury history is one pulled hamstring in April 2024.

            So many people, including writers on this site, just love this guy. Me? Well, if I know how to categorize him I wouldn’t have them in this named portion of my post.

                        You?

 

Free Agent Target –

            IF         Willy Adames

            Will play as a 30-year old in 2025

            2024:       3.1-WAR, 610-AB, 32-HR, 33-2B, 112-RBI, 21-SB, .251

            2024 contract -        $12.25-mil

            My spin –

            Adames is a former all-star that had an excellent season leading up to free agency. I suggest that the Mets meet secretly with Mark Vientos, tell him that he’s their man going forward, explain one of the possible approaches to the 2025 season would be to retain the services of Pete Alonso on first… but another could be signing Adames, moving Adames to third base, and moving him to first base.

The loss of Alonso’s home run production would be offset if Adames produced at the same results as 2024, plus projected increased production from a full season of Vientos.

The cost would be far lower than a hefty increase to Alonso, thus adding more to the pool to go after players like Corbin Burnes and Juan Soto.

The only downside is his projected future contract to be in the 8-year range. I’m sorry… I’m not offering an eight year contract to anyone over 30. Five, with a team option sixth, yes.

 

 

Mets News and Links                   @JohnFromAlbany

Jonathan Pintaro of the Mets starts slow Thursday in the Arizona Fall League by walking 2 batters, 1 later scores on a sac fly but he allows no runs after that - final line - 3 innings, no hits, 1 run, 1 ER, 4 walks, 2 Ks.

Mack – You know, I really like this guy and I truly believe he could be the first Syracuse starter to head to Queens next season. This is based on the combination or what he has done and what others haven’t.

The 6-2 righty is currently 26-years old, so he has the maturity to excel at the next level. He had a 2.68-ERA in 2024 for the combined Brooklyn, Binghamton, and Syracuse team, tossing 74-innings with 75 strikeouts. His weapon is his sweeper.

Your thoughts?

Paul Articulates – Will the Yankees poach Pete?

There have been frequent discussions in the media about whether the Mets can retain Pete Alonso now that he has become a free agent.  These discussions have centered around what Pete (through his agent Scott Boras) will ask for in both dollars and length of contract.  Other discussions have been linked to the pursuit of Juan Soto, implying that money that could go towards retaining Alonso would be spent instead on sweetening the pot for Soto.

Here is another angle.  What if the New York Yankees go all out in pursuit of Pete Alonso?  Of course the Yankees are also trying to sign Soto, but they have a real advantage there.  The Yankees have had Soto during this World Series run and he has proven to fit well on their team.  The fans have certainly embraced him.  Yankee management have budgeted for Soto, and they are not afraid to put plenty of digits on a contract.  So if that money is already baked into the plan, and Soto by himself will not get the Yankees to another World Series, what will they be looking for?

Look no further than first base.  Anthony Rizzo has been a complete non-factor in the playoffs for the pinstripes.  Somehow he has compiled a .267 batting average but none of the hits contributed to anything of significance.  Zero RBI, a .300 slugging percentage, and two runs scored.  Defensively he has been below average.  The Yankees don’t accept that kind of mediocrity.  They need a replacement, and Pete Alonso looks like a great fit.

The short fences in Yankee stadium will boost Alonso’s already impressive power numbers.  Imagine 81 games per year in that enticing arena.  The city already loves Pete – imagine the jersey sales if he hits 50 homers next year.  Bronx Bombers takes on a new dimension with Judge, Alonso, and Stanton hitting 3-4-5.  The Yankees have a $17M club option next year on Rizzo.  Most estimates put Pete Alonso’s new deal in the $24M range for average annual value, so it is not outrageous to think that the Yankees would spend another $7M on putting a much better player at first.

Here is the upgrade comparison based upon 2024 regular season statistics:

Anthony Rizzo: 35 years old, .228/.301/.335 slash line , 81 OPS+, 0.2 WAR, -2 OAA

Pete Alonso: 29 years old, .240/.329/.459 slash line, 123 OPS+, 2.6 WAR, -9 OAA

I could put more statistics up here, but the point is already clear.  Pete Alonso would bring a significant performance upgrade to an already powerful lineup on the other side of the city, so expect Hal Steinbrenner to be extremely aggressive going after him.

That puts the pressure on the Mets leadership.  Yes, one can argue that Vientos could move over to first and still provide power there.  Yes, one can argue that Alonso is entering his 30’s next year and there is data showing that power hitters decline in their 30’s.  Yes, one can argue that despite improvement Pete is not a gold glove caliber first basement.  But Pete is a folk hero with Mets’ fans.  He brought excitement when the team was not winning.  Now that they are winning, it seems contrarian to walk away from that – even with some kind of analytical value analysis that puts his worth below his asking price.  

I don’t envy the tough decisions in the coming month that face the Mets’ front office.  All I can do is vote with my heart.  Keep Pete!!

Tom Brennan: Tough Task of David Stearns for 2025; AFL Comparables

 

THIS REBUILDING STUFF IS TOUGH, I TELL YA, IT’S TOUGH!

Let’s review 2024 a bit, from the vantage point of David Stearns: 

Start with "down on the farm".

In no particular order, Calvin Ziegler had one inning in 2023 due to a few different injuries, and 6 innings in Bklyn in 2024 before needing Tommy John in April. But those were some 7 innings. No hits allowed and16 Ks. Hopefully he will be healthy by mid 2025. But likely arrive in 2027 now. If not for Tommy John, he’d probably be even with Nolan McLean.

Nolan McLean? 2 hits allowed over 6 shutout innings in AA in his last AA start of 2024, in his pro debut season. A bit behind in development compared to Sproat but Nolan hits 98 with a nasty slider. He’s done very well in 2024, despite 4-10, 3.78, and it is a shame he also tried in early 2024 to hit….Kingman power, but unreal strikeouts.  

Glad they pulled the plug on that so he can just develop faster as a pitcher.  Mid-2025 arrival in Queens, IMO. (Don’t you love that his name is Nolan, too?  May he become Nolan II.)  His last 52 innings in AA, he allowed just 18 earned runs, which is an ERA of just above 3.00.

Sadly for Stearns, Tidwell, Hamel, and Vasil were AWFUL in AAA in 2024. 

BRUTAL stats. Look them up.  

You want them in your plans for 2025? I certainly do…to repeat Syracuse and hopefully cut their combined bloated ERAs IN HALF.

And their respective AAA WHIPs of 1.54, 1.56, and 1.75?  Ouch.

Only Max Kranick pitched decently in AAA, and he is probably a 6th or 7th MLB starter, or pen arm, in 2025. (Joey Lucchesi?)

They will again need a free agent rotation, 2 or perhaps even 3 of them. Right now, you have Shaky Senga, Peterson and…?  Well, Brandon Sproat will emerge in 2025 at some point.

Megill is a cheap, but shaky, alternative for SP 5. My brother says, he is who he is.  Massive and mediocre.

Blackburn to me is a 6th starter, and his fix-the-leak surgery sets him back. 

Butto as an SP 5?  Then what about him in the empty bullpen?

The Mets will make mucho spending where they NEED to spend, namely on Juanderful Juan Soto.  If I was Senor Soto, I would have stayed in the Bronx with Judge, until Judge turned into Sludge.  Now, I'd certainly consider the side exit.  The side that opens towards Queens.

Steve Cohen should go totally for broke here. It’s only Cohen Cash, right?  And keep him the heck away from the LA Daggers.

If the Mets had the same starters as in 2024, namely Severino, Manaea, and Quintana, and also Pete Alonso, for 2025, it would be a somewhat easier sell towards Soto.  Those 4 are free agents. Yes, if Pete is $$$$ unreasonable, sayonara. But what if his replacement hits like….i dunno, Dom Smith? 

That would be BAD.

Even with fistfuls of cash, this will be a tough off season for Stearns. 

They HAVE to spend big due to the farm system failures.  

The aforementioned Hamel, Tidwell, Vasil, as well as Gilbert, Mauricio, Baty and Williams, all of whom were supposed to either be in the majors, or close thereto, by opening day 2025. 

Complete failure of those 7 in that regard (injuries and highly disappointing performances combined), which puts Stearns in a TOUGHER SPOT. 

Moving along, Harry Bader was a total fader, in the realm of Mets favorite Albert Almora, Jr. (or even - gasp - Cameron Maybin) in the second half.  

Tyrone Taylor was totally groovy and shagadelic in the outfield, but borderline pathetic at the plate after a hot April. 

Iglesias was a pleasant shock. But Acuna earned his way into the mix.

Alvarez had his ups and downs, but was decidedly on the upswing in the Dodgers series. 

Winker was a fabulous pick up.  I want to keep him if his back is OK.

Stearns is brilliant, frankly. Nonetheless, he has his work cut out for him. Oh, I already said that.

Fortunately, oh so fortunately, Verlander’s option for 2025 (which would have cost the Mets $17.5 million in 2025) won’t kick in leaving that huge chunk out of the 2025 spending equation. So, the $65 million the Mets spent on absentees Scherzer, Verlander, and McCann in 2024, is ZERO DOLLARS in 2025. 

How do you spell “luxury tax relief”?  The hangover is over, Rover.

Stearns has more flexibility financially, but a tough 2025 rebuild ahead. 

But…the 2024 rebuild was tough, too, and he did that quite well, by and large, although the pitching wore out as Senga, Dedniel, and Scott were MIA or useless down the stretch.

Mack recently posted this summary re: Mets free agents:

Benny BKG               @BennyGreenberg)

Should be an interesting winter for the Mets...

FREE AGENTS

1B Alonso

INF Iglesias

SP Quintana

SP Severino

CF Bader

OF Winker

RP Raley

RP Ottavino

RP Stanek

RP Smith

DH J.D. Martinez

OPTIONS

SP Sean Manaea, $13.5M player option

RP Phil Maton, $7.75M club option

What are your top two off-season moves, if you were David Stearns, to keep the Mets in the playoffs in 2025 and beyond?  

And who would you want to keep in the above list?

AFL COMPARABLES

The Mets 3 hitters (Gilbert, Williams, Reimer) through Monday were just 23 for 118 (.195), with a .353 OBP (lots of walks) and a .415 slug %.

How do they compare against the three top hitters on their own Scottsdale team? 

Sinai, Liranzo, and Briceno, three prospects for other teams, are a scorching 56 for 132 (.424), with 10 doubles, 3 triples, 9 HRs, 25 RBIs, and 26 runs scored. 

So….424 vs. .195. 

Question: can we trade our 3 for those 3? I’ll put in five bucks to sweeten the deal if it will help.

Reese Kaplan -- The Annual Rebuild the Pen FA Challenge is Here

For the Mets in the offseason it always seems the bullpen is being rebuilt from scratch.  This year is no different.  Unless unexpected trades happen causing the club to part ways with returning talents like Edwin Diaz, Jose Butto, Reed Garrett and Dedniel Nunez, well, the rest of the spots are pretty much wide open.  Considering how much the club struggled once the starting pitchers left the game there are some big shoes that must be filled.

One thing to bear in mind is that a young closer like Diaz is not being pushed aside for someone else.  That means bonafide closers on the open market likely aren’t going to consider the Mets a choice at all, let alone a top choice.  Why take less money, NOT rake up saves and ensure future higher earnings when the 9th inning belongs to Diaz?  For the Mets I’d figure a lot more energy is going to be spent on the 5th through 8th inning types who cost less now and for the future. 

Available Top Level Pen Arms

• Tanner Scott — Hard throwing southpaw Scott may be an exception to the no-closers rule.  He’s left handed.  Diaz is right handed.  He earns relatively little at $6.75 million.   A modest bump to say $10 million would give the Mets a formidable lefty/righty dual closer and valuable insurance if Diaz once again loses his way once again.  It would also open up a Diaz trade possibility if Scott is able to show once again he’s premier quality.
• Jeff Hoffman — Up through 2022 Hoffman was a filler type of relief pitcher.  However, in the last two years with the Phillies he kicked it up several notches, finishing consecutive years with an ERA well under 3.00.  He’s already 32 years old and had just 10 saves as an alternative closer, so he wouldn’t break the bank nor necessarily find a setup role unappealing.  His last salary was just $2.2 million, so think of him as an Adam Ottavino alternative.
• David Robertson — The man may already be 40 years old, but he really knows how to pitch.  His time in New York for both clubs was outstanding and right now he’s holding a 66-46 career record with a 2.91 ERA.  Last season he ticked up a little to 3.00 but still struck out batters with ease.  He earned $10 million with the Rangers last year and has a $7.5 million option or $1.5 million buyout.  Word is out that the Rangers are looking to slash payroll, so putting a lot of greenbacks into a 41 year old’s pocket may not seem appealing.  A commitment to him may just be a single year with a 2nd year option.  
• Aroldis Chapman — While his closing days are over, he certainly has the resume to suggest he’s a tough mound opponent.  He’s still fanning people at will with over 100 mph heat even at age 37.  He shared some closing duties this past season but since 2021 he’s been more of a setup kind of guy.  Money is going to be a challenge here as he earned $10.5 million from Pittsburgh of all unlikely places.  If he can close he’ll probably mirror that number.  However, as he turns 38 he may be slated as a setup guy and it could me less (particularly when you factor in his high number of walks to accompany those gaudy strikeout numbers).  He’s interesting to consider but not a top choice anymore.
• Clay Holmes — From 2021 when a midyear trade sent him from Pittsburgh to the Yankees Holmes has pitched to a 22-17 record with a 3.01 ERA.  That’s what you want in a middle reliever.  His WHIP is 1.167 and his 3:1 Strikeout to Walk ratio looks mighty nice.  In terms of money, he’s leaving the Bronx having enjoyed a final Yankee contract of $6 million.  He’s probably going to get a modest increase and will likely want multiple years. 
• Kenley Jansen — Another former closer who was among the elite still can bring quality effort to the mound during his age 37 season.  In his two years in Boston since leading the league in saves for Atlanta in 2022, he gave the Red Sox 29 and 27 saves.  The ERA has jumped from his career mark of 2.57 to the 3.50 range as he is aging, but he’s likely going to consider a transition to setup when the 2025 season finds him turning age 38.  His paycheck is not small.  He earned $16 million each of the past three years and though he’ll likely get a bit less, it’s not going to drop below $10 million per year.  That’s a lot of money for someone on the down side of his career and you have to wonder if his size will start working against him. 
• Chris Martin — A career middle reliever, the 6’8” Martin has notched quality innings for several seasons as evidenced by his 3.38 ERA.  The big down side to me is his $9.5 million paycheck from Boston.  It would seem he’s looking for an increase and for a middle reliever that’s getting to the point of being unjustifiable. 
• Carlos Estévez — The big man picked a great time to excel as a reliever.  After a somewhat nondescript career in the pen, over the past two years combined for the Angels and Phillies he’s been pretty much near the top group of big league relievers.  For the 2023/2024 span he’s saved 57 games and kept the ERA down to 3.22 while striking out nearly 10 per 9 IP.  He’s last earned $6.7 million and likely wants to close full time, so he’s probably not on the Mets’ radar.
• Danny Coulombe — Unless the Baltimore Orioles took a severe blow to their collective heads, there’s no way they will pass on Coulombe’s option.  For his entire career he is 3.52 ERA pitcher but in 2024 he went 1-0 over 33 games with a 2.02 ERA.  Yes, he’ll turn 36 in 2025, but this southpaw should be at the top of everyone’s bid list if he becomes a free agent.  For $4 million the Orioles would be crazy to let him go.
• Kirby Yates — In seven of his ten major league season Yates was a middle reliever.  He was in a shared role in one other season, led the league in saves for the Padres back in 2019 and then returned to that role for the Rangers in 2023 when he notched 33 at the age of 38.  At his age he’s likely trending down in price and also more inclined to be deployed as a setup guy.  His ending payday was $6.75 million in combined salary/buyout option, so expect him to sign a single year deal at that rate or less and a multiyear deal at perhaps $5 million per season.
• Jakob Junis — A pitcher David Stearns knows well is Brewers reliever Jakob Junis.  His career was nothing much until 2023 when we put together fine numbers which he mirrored in 2024.  There is a mutual option for 2025 which Junis might want to let slide given Milwaukee for a non closer would be paying him $8 million which seems a bit high.  On the other hand, the buyout is a hefty $3 million so the ball may be in Junis’ court to remain a Brewer.  If he is bought out, then expect Stearns to be all over him for his past two years of success.
• Brent Suter — Another pitcher Stearns had as a Brewer is southpaw Brent Suter who has since spent the past two seasons in Colorado and Cincinnati respectively.  Earning a very reasonable $2.5 million last year, he was in 47 games and finished with a 1-0 record and an ERA of 3.15.  The option is for $3.5 million this season or a $250K buyout.  The Reds can’t be silly enough to try to save a few bucks on that kind of performance, but if they do I’d grab this soft tossing lefty in a heartbeat. 
• Luke Weaver — He’s another one of those guys who suddenly put it together in his free agent year.  For the Yankees in 2024 he went 7-3 with a 2.89 ERA that covered 84 innings of work.   At $3.5 million for the upcoming year you’d think he’d be an automatic to stay in the Bronx, but waiting until his age 31 season finally to find it could be an outlier.  Still, he’s worth exploring if he becomes available. 

There are a great many relievers from other organizations who are also worth considering, but I drew an arbitrary WAR of 1.5 as my line in the sand to whittle down the top tier talents while excluding others who had poor histories or tremendous control issues.  For example, there are some high flyers on the missing list including Craig Kimbrel who has not had a stellar year since 2018 and is earning over $13 million.  Now you can see why the list is missing some seemingly credible options.

Is there anyone out there worth exploring on your free agent short list?   

MACK - Tuesday Morning Observations

 

Kevin Kernan

https://ballnine.com/2024/10/27/real-numbers/

The numbers were quite striking in the National League too. Silvio looked at all seven NL playoff teams – yes, he counted the Diamondbacks, who had the same 89-73 record as the Mets and Braves but lost on the tiebreaker.

The Braves and Brewers had the best record of all against the AL at 31-15 and the Dodgers were close behind at 30-16. The Padres were 27-19 vs. the AL and the Phillies were 26-20. The Mets and Diamondbacks were both 24-22. All the NL playoff teams were above .500 against the AL. Three of those teams had winning records against the Yankees. The Mets were 4-0, the Braves and Dodgers were 2-1.

 

Big Red Ruckus                   @BigRedRuckus

Branch Rickey thought if he trashed Yogi Berra enough, no one would ever look at him. Then Rickey could hide Yogi until Rickey could move from the Cards to Brooklyn & sign Yogi for nothing. Yankees swooped in & signed Yogi for $500 (that they didn’t pay until Yogi played a full season.

Yankees sent Yogi to Norfolk for his age-18 season (1943). Played 111 games, didn't get his $500 bonus until the after the season. Barely ate. No surprise Yogi joined the Navy. He reloaded rocket tubes on his boat on D-Day. Refused his Purple Heart so his mom wouldn't worry.

 

 

Jim Koenigsberger                        @Jimfrombaseball

 

After dinner last night Roy Campanella drove to Manhattan in a 1957  Chevrolet sport sedan he had rented from an uptown concern that was  giving a routine check to his own Chevrolet.

He headed for home in the rented Chevrolet. At 3:34 A.M. he was headed north in Glen Cove on  Dosoris Lane. Mr. Campanella's car simply went straight instead of to the right. It struck Pole No. 25 of the New York Telephone  Co.

Neighbour Dr. Gurnee, found Mr. Campanella, though he didn't know who he was, crumpled in  the front of the car, crying out: "Somebody help me. Somebody help me. Get me out of here."

 

Family and friends filled St Patrick’s Cathedral for Babe Ruth’s funeral mass. It was hot that day in New York City. One former Yankee supposedly turned to Ruth’s old teammate Waite Hoyt & said,

“I could sure use a beer”

Hoyt: “So could the Babe.”

Crowds were so overwhelming, they had to move the casket away from the ferns and let his mourners pass by in a double file.

            "It wasn't that he hit more home runs than anybody  else, he hit them better, higher, farther, with more theatrical timing  and a more flamboyant flourish. Nobody could strike out like Babe Ruth. Nobody circled the bases with the same pigeon-toed, mincing majesty."

Red Smith

 

 

https://metsnewsandlinks.blogspot.com/2024/10/10212024-mets-roster-moves-eddy-alvarez.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&m=1&s=03 –

The New York Mets have announced the following roster moves:

2B Pablo Reyes elected free agency.

            2024 – MLB:  -0.6-WAR, 60-AB, .183

                          NYM:   0-AB, 1-BB, .000

                          BOSTON:  60-AB, .183

2B Eddy Alvarez elected free agency.

            2024 – MLB:  -0.1-WAR, 9-AB, .000

                         LAD:  25-AB, .160

                         NYM:  9-AB, .000

C Joe Hudson elected free agency.

            2024 – MLB:  0.0-WAR, 0-AB, .000

                          SYR:   97-AB, 5-HR, .217

 

https://www.smartnews.com/en-us/article/4739279305425561412?placement=article-preview-social&utm_source=share_android_other&utm_campaign=sn_lid%3A4739279305425561412%7Csn_channel%3Aen_us_new_york_mets&logo=logo_6&share_id=0ZVSbM – (need to subscribe for free)

Important Dates to Know

           

Big Red Ruckus                   @BigRedRuckus

Yeah, you do need to stockpile good pitching! Mets had Seaver, Koosman, Matlack, Gentry, Nolan Ryan, Tug McGraw, Steve Renko, Danny Frisella... how often does that happen? Maybe we still take it for granted...

Mack – the problem here is that 29 other teams are trying to do the same thing. Your sources today should be both the domestic and International drafts, Asians, and Cubans.

Remember 1969: Remember's Reminiscing

 

Remember 1969: Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember's Reminiscing – Volume 1, Article 3 

October 29, 2024

  

My intention today was to continue my reminiscing session and take a look back at the week of October 29, but we seem to be entering the season where there hasn’t been a lot of activity on that date through history.   The only time the Mets were still playing this late was in the 2015 World Series against the Royals and October 29 was a travel day. 

So I am shifting gears a little to take a look at something that popped into my mind after reading a recent Reese’s Pieces article here on Mack’s Mets. 

In discussing the potential free agent bats that might be signed to strength the team, the article did a great job laying out the statistics of the various players.    What I then wondered was “What effect will New York City and Citi Field have on them?”

While I cannot get into the psyche of each player and whether or not they can play in New York, I decided to concentrate on the concept of how Citi Field is playing now for the hitters.   

Home Sweet Home! 

The data shows something that surprised me.   Both the 2023 and 2024 Mets teams actually hit more homers at home than on the road. 

In 2024, the Mets hit 5 more homers in 114 less plate appearances at home than they did away from Citi Field.  In a stranger anomaly, they also walked 70 times more often and struck out 22 times less than on the road.    Oddly, their batting average was 16 points higher away than in Citi (due to many less singles), which brought their team OPS just about even (.736 at home;  .732 on the road). 

In a down year 2023, the Mets slugged much better at home than in other ballparks, hitting 17 additional homers in 140 less plate appearances. 

2022 was rather weird, as it was the only year of the last 4 that the team had a higher OPS on the road than at home (.729 vs .758) .. BUT . . they also had their best home winning percentage of the four years in 2022, winning exactly two thirds of their home games.    While it is true that most teams have a better record at home than on the road, the Mets have had very good won-loss records at Citi Field, despite some poor overall records.

One other somewhat strange stat for the Mets is that they consistently have a higher stolen base success rate at Citi Field than when they are playing on somebody else’s field.  I have no explanation for that. 

What does all this have to do with attracting talent to play for the Mets?    Citi Field, while rating as a favorable park to pitchers year in and year out, it is not particularly terrible for the hitters either. 

To go back to the ability to play in New York, the Mets top free agent, Pete Alonso, has shown that he is made for the big stage.    His home/away splits for 2024 were stunning to me.   He had the same number of hits at home as on the road, but the only thing less was singles, as he hit more doubles, more home runs, had more RBI, scored more runs, walked more and struck out less at Citi.   He even had one more stolen base at home.   His home line of .251 avg, .351 OBP, .495 slugging, and .846 OPS is a pretty solid stat line.      I say this guy can do it – sign him up.

  

Born on this date:  October 29

The Mets have had four players that will be celebrating birthdays today.   Ender Inciarte is 34, Dana Eveland is 41, Karim Garcia is 49 and a special happy 50^th birthday to R.A. Dickey.

R.A. Dickey is worth a little more feature than the others as he is the only one of the four to win any major awards by winning the Cy Young for the Mets in 2012 (then being immediately traded away).     

As a relative late bloomer after developing the knuckleball, Dickey had a decent major league career, pitching in at least parts of 15 years, winning double digits in 7 of the 15 including the 20 in his Cy Young year.    He accumulated 23.7 bWAR for his career with his 120 wins in 400 games pitched (300 starts) and over 2000 innings.  While he never duplicated his 20-6 2012 performance, he went on to win another 59 games for Toronto and Atlanta until his retirement after the 2017 season.    

 Remember’s Ramblings

After the Mets lost last week, I no longer cared about the World Series and thought that I might not even follow it on a daily basis.   I must admit that I am too much of a baseball fan to not check the scores before going to sleep (I have no interest in watching it), and rather surprised myself by being glad the Dodgers won the first two games.   I guess I have to hope that they win the whole thing, but neither team moves the needle much for me.  

February 15 for pitchers and catchers cannot come too soon.   Let the off-season begin.  By this time next week, the Series will be over and the hot-stove officially started. 

 

Paul Articulates – Does the future reflect the past?

We use the term “experience” to explain how we learn from past events and apply that knowledge to inform future choices.  But how well does that term help baseball executives make good decisions on where to go to prepare a competitive team for next season?

Certainly there is a big focus on analytics in today’s game.  Analytics are nothing more than statistical analysis of players’ past performance that provide a probability of success in their future.  This is the epitome of “experience” because it is based upon raw fact and not clouded by the judgement of a scout or a coach that is not calibrated. 

If you read much of what I write, you understand that I place a lot of importance on “state of mind” which is to say that a player’s performance is influenced not only by his raw skills but also by that player’s level of confidence in the moment and their focus on the task at hand rather than the plethora of distractions surrounding them.  So despite my love of math, I take analytics with a grain of salt.  The stats don’t tell you where the player’s state of mind was when they were recorded or where that state of mind will be when the next play will be made. 

Why am I talking about all this and what does it have to do with the Mets?

I think it has everything to do with the Mets.  In their history, the Mets have had several memorable seasons like we just experienced in 2024.  The “Amazin Mets” of 1969, the “Ya gotta believe” Mets of 1973, the “dynasty” of 1986, and World Series appearances in 2000 and 2015 were all memorable.  They also were followed by years of misery because the team could not repeat their successes.  So one might say that “experience” would have predicted a better outcome than reality gave us.  

There are many reasons that this may be true, such as changes in the roster that affected the chemistry, changes in the players’ performance based upon external influences, and the unpredictable variable of the schedule.  

So as the front office (and all of us fans) lays out the task ahead to build a team, they should also consider the fact that the past does not always predict the future.  

The Mets of 2024 were so much fun to watch and to root for, but would the exact same team perform in the exact same way again?  Probably not.  Jose Iglesias hit .337 in 270 at-bats this season which was 19% above his career average of .283.  Similarly his .829 OPS this year was 17% better than his career OPS of .709.  Starling Marte hit .277 in the playoffs because he was fresher than usual in the fall due to missing many games in mid-season.  Can we expect him to repeat that at age 37 next year if he plays 150 games?  I could go on, but I am just trying to be pragmatic here.  A carbon copy of the 2024 Mets would not win 96 games (89 plus 7) in 2025.  As a team they over-performed their norm, in part because of the tremendous self-confidence boost they had during their run which became self-sustaining.

Not to disparage a very good team having a very good season and a spectacular playoff run, but the reality is this: David Stearns is going to have to be very aggressive in building this team for the future.  I know that he said we have the financial means to do so, but we also have to be very good at luring the talent that is required to become a sustainable playoff team.  Juan Soto will need a lot of convincing to leave a team that is playing in the World Series for one that is not.  Corbin Burnes will need a lot of convincing to leave a team that is built to win now.  

I think that the Mets have shown that they are all-in on building a winner, and that is important.  I also know that it takes more than just money to lure the right players to a team that has not displayed a winning pedigree over their history.  It is a tall task to push them to the next level.  I am confident in the people they have in place, from the ownership to the management to the coaching staff, but it will not be easy.

Much will be discussed over the coming months about the process, and we will all be weighing in with our opinions.  Just remember, the past does not always predict the future.

Reese Kaplan -- FAs Who Could Become Mets Starting Pitchers

We last looked at the offensive free agents worth consideration as the Mets definitely need to score more runs, but just as importantly they need to prevent the opposition from doing the same.  Going into 2025 with a recovering Kodai Senga, David Peterson, maybe Tylor Megill and maybe Jose Butto the Mets most definitely need some help. 

Some of the departing free agents deserve a second look starting with Sean Manaea.  Luis Severino and Jose Quintana also could provide depth but not at the top of the rotation.  Towards that end the club needs to look at spending some of their new found payroll flexibility to supplement the number 2 level pitcher (if not number 1).  Let’s take a look:

Starting Pitchers

Corbin Burnes — Well known to POBO David Stearns is Corbin Burnes who broke in as a rookie with the Brewers in 2018.  Since then he’s won a Cy Young Award and appeared in 4 consecutive All Star Games.  This ending season with the Orioles he went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA and was paid Just under $16 million.  Going into his age 31 season he’s probably looking for a 6-7 year deal paying closer to $30 million per year.  His career ERA is a sparkling 3.19. 

Gerrit Cole — If the Bronx Bombers continue to live up to their name and bomb out of the World Series then Gerrit Cole might exercise his option to find a new home at a higher rate of pay.  It’s doubtful he would get it as the Yankees are committed to overpaying $36 million per year from now through his age 37 season in 2028.  A career 3.18 ERA is formidable but not at those prices for the latter stages of his career for a guy who has had injury issues.  Still, the 6-time All Star also owns a Cy Young Award on his mantle.

Blake Snell — Here’s another career top pitcher who has an opt out clause with the Giants.  The big southpaw also owns a career 3.19 ERA to accompany his record of two Cy Young Awards and one All Star appearance.  Right now he’s being paid $32 million and has a $30 million player option with deferral for 2025.  His Giants tenure ends after this season if he stays put, so he might indeed look at what a guy like Cole gets and he might feel better securing his future elsewhere beyond 2025.
 
Yusei Kikuchi — Another southpaw but without the enviable pedigree on his stat sheet, Kikuchi has split time between Seattle and Toronto before settling to end his 2024 season with Houston.  He appeared in 10 games for the Astros and was brilliant there, going 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and a WHIP of 0.993 while striking out over 11 and walking a hair over 2 per 9 IP.  He was last earning $10 million and will want to cash in on his recent success.  The question is whether it was an outlier for an otherwise undistinguished career or did the Astros help straighten out his mechanics so he could deliver at that level?  He’s going to be 35 next year so it’s not unreasonable to think a 2 or 3 year contract with option to terminate might work if the numbers advance to say $14-$17 million.

Michael Wacha — A former Met who was pretty horrific while in New York, it’s unlikely he’s high on the club’s radar.  For his career he’s a 3.89 ERA pitcher who doesn’t possess strikeout stuff.  He was very good for the Royals last year and actually is on a road of three straight very solid seasons.  Turning 35 in 2025 he’s coming off a $16 million payday and could earn the same if KC chooses to keep him around.  If not, then it’s anyone’s guess how a mostly inconsistent pitcher at that age is worth.

Freddy Peralta — Another former Brewer still under 30 is inexpensive for moderate performance.  Milwaukee holds a pair of $6 million options if they want to keep him.  If not, then he’s likely going to get a long term deal with a bump in pay, something along the lines of 4-5 years at say $10 million per season.  Interesting but not real tempting other than his age.
 
Max Fried — He may be the arm the Mets covet the most after the former Cy Young winners.  He would be stripped away from the Braves where he’s put up a career record of 73-36 with an ERA of 3.07.  The lefty earns $15 million right now and there’s no option with Atlanta.  He’s earned 3 Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger (no longer applicable in the days of designated hitters) and a pair of All Star appearances.  Turning 32 for the 2025 season he’s likely looking at a 4-6 year contract but probably won’t bump much higher than $20 million per season due to how much time he’s missed on the IL.

Jack Flaherty — Most recently a Los Angeles Dodger, Flaherty can throw quality innings and is still under 30.  However, his on-again/off-again top pitching has led to a 3.68 career ERA and he’s ending his 2024 season making $14 million.  I think of him as a younger Michael Wacha (which is not a good thing). 
 
Nick Martinez — After failing to do much in the major league, he spent a long interval in Japan before returning to the USA.  For the Reds last year he was very good (surprisingly so given his career track record) and earned $14 million to provide a 10-7 record with a 3.10 ERA.  Splitting time between the pen and the rotation might be a good thing as his previous two years all sported ERAs under 3.50 as well.  Still, rolling the dice on someone turning 35 already earning more money than Manaea and Severino did last year doesn’t seem like a shrewd move. 
 
Shane Bieber — For a long term investment, former Cy Young Award winner Shane Beiber was terrific during his entire Cleveland career, but he’s down and out right now with a May Tommy John surgery which will likely keep him out of action until August or perhaps 2026.  Still, he’s just 30 years old right now and for a guy to keep in your back pocket whose ending salary was $13.25 million it’s not the dumbest idea in the world but won’t help much for 2025. 
 
Trevor Williams — Former Met Trevor Williams may hold a grudge after being booted to the curb after pitching well for the Mets, but as a starting pitcher since leaving his 2024 was a standout.  In 13 Washington Nationals starts he went 6-1 with a 2.03 ERA.  He earned $7 million and probably will look to get a modest bump up given his somewhat non-descript numbers bouncing between the rotation and the pen.  He’ll turn 34 in 2025.

2025 MLB Draft Prospect - RHP - Jacob Mayers - LSU

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2024/9/5/2025-mlb-draft-top-draft-prospect-transfers?s=03  –

 

RHP JACOB MAYERS (NICHOLLS TO LSU)

 

LSU lost a few arms to the MLB Draft as expected, but they still have plenty of incoming talent, including Jakob Mayers, who makes his way to campus from Nicholls. His fastball is explosive as it has a ton of spin, giving it lots of carry in the zone. It’s averaged 91-95 MPH, but has topped out at 97 MPH. 

He utilized his fastball at extremely high rates last year, but still generated a decent amount of Whiff with it and put in insane strikeout numbers as he punched out 106 batters in 70.2 innings. He did the same thing in his freshman year, striking out 105 batters in 75.2 innings. 

The next step for Mayers is going to be really developing his secondary pitches to give him more weapons. He’s flashed a decent slider that with some polish could r.be a very good second pitch for Mayers.

 

https://geauxcolonels.com/sports/baseball/roster/jacob-mayers/6159  -

6-5

Weight 205

Hometown Gonzales, La.

Highschool St. Amant

 

2024

-- ABCA/Rawlings All-South Region Second Team (Starting Pitcher)

 

2023

-- College Baseball Foundation Pitcher of the Year Semifinalist

-- National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association (NCBWA) National Freshman Pitcher of the Year

-- NCBWA Freshman All-American First Team

-- D1Baseball Freshman All-American First Team

-- Baseball America Freshman All-American First Team

-- Perfect Game/Rawlings Freshman All-American

-- Collegiate Baseball Freshman Pitcher of the Year

-- Collegiate Baseball Freshmen All-American

-- ABCA/Rawlings All-South Region

-- Southland Freshman of the Year

-- All-Southland First Team (Starting Pitcher)

-- Southland All-Tournament

-- LSWA Freshman of the Year

-- LSWA All-Louisiana First Team

-- Tuscaloosa Regional All-Tournament

-- Southland Pitcher of the Week (2/27)

 

2024 Season (Sophomore): Followed up a stellar freshman campaign with a Southland-leading 106 strikeouts and a .165 opponent batting average...ranked third I n the NCAA in hits per nine (4.97) and 15th in Ks per nine (13.50)...went 5-1 with a 4.58 ERA in 70.2 innings, fanned a season-high 12 batters against New Orleans in 6.1 innings, and had 10 Ks against Southeastern and Lamar... Mayers struck out an SLC-best 60 batters with a .150 average in league play...named to the ABCA/Rawlings All-South Region Second Team.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/nicholls-jacob-mayers-reportedly-enters-the-transfer-portal/ar-BB1ofoDT -

Jacob Mayers was cut from his high school baseball team his freshman year and didn’t start pitching until his senior year at St. Amant.

Things you wouldn’t have believed when he caught the attention of the college baseball world in Nicholls’ matchup with Alabama in the 2023 Tuscaloosa Regional.

Mayers gave the Crimson Tide more than they bargained for, throwing 5.2 innings with eight strikeouts in what would be a 4-3 walk-off win for Alabama.

Still, the start capped off a phenomenal freshman campaign for Mayers who went 9-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 75.2 innings of action.

Mayers was named the 2023 Southland Conference Freshman of the Year

2025 Draft Prospect - Eric Hines, OF/3B, Alabama recruit

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2024/9/27/2025-risers-top-prep-hitters-whose-stock-keeps-rising?s=03 -

Eric Hines, OF/3B, Alabama recruit

Hines burst onto the scene this summer, most notably when he hit a ball 114mph during batting practice (!!) at the Perfect Game National Showcase. Standing at a physically imposing 6’3” 210lbs, Hines possesses top-of-the-scale raw power that can go toe to toe with anyone in this 2025 prep class. In the box, he sets up with a fairly neutral stance and a minimal, repeatable load. 

He presents his back foot to be slightly open and keeps most of his weight over his backside throughout the swing. This shifts the spine angle as he rotates through to ball strike and allows for a bat path geared to loft the baseball consistently. On top of this, he has impressive hand strength that he uses to create some electric bat speed. 

He can run into a bit of trouble in the box when he stays on his back leg too long, as this causes the barrel and bat path to come through the hitting zone at an approach angle that is too steep. This can cause pop-ups, rollovers, and swing and miss which Hines showed issues with at times throughout the summer. 

But the physical tools are simply too much to ignore here, and when his swing is on and “balanced”, very few players can impact the baseball in the fashion that Hines can. In the field, Hines profiles as a corner outfielder as he’s shown average speed and a decent arm that should continue to progress. 

There’s certainly a chance that he ends up at first base due to the frame, but if he can stick in the outfield, his value will only be that much higher for organizations next summer.

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=776895 –

2024 National Showcase 

Eric Hines is a 2025 OF/3B with a 6-3 210 lb. frame from Tuscaloosa, AL who attends American Christian Academy. Selected to play in the Perfect Game All-American Classic. Awfully strong, physical frame with square shoulders and well-defined mass that stands out. 

Primary outfielder, ran a 6.71 in the sixty and is a quality athlete for his size. Accurate arm and gets on top of throws, good first step in round. Can iron out his arm action but has promise in a corner. Right-handed hitter, some of the better bat speed produced in class with top-of-class exit velocities. 

Loud right-handed power with grown man strength off his barrel, simply jumps off his barrel. Immense backspin and carry produced, even showed ability to drive balls to all fields with relative ease. Offensive upside and overall athlete is high end. Verbal commitment to Alabama. Good student. Selected to play in the 2024 PG All-American Classic.

 

https://www.prepbaseballreport.com/news/AL/Alabama-Class-of-2025-Rankings-Official-Release-2604359781 -

OF Eric Hines (American Christian, 2025) makes the biggest splash in this update, as he makes his debut at No. 10 after a noteworthy spring and summer on the circuit. Listed at 6-foot-3, 205-pounds, the uncommitted outfielder is a dynamic, three-sport athlete that possesses immense upside on the diamond. 

Playing as a sophomore this spring for powerhouse American Christian, Hines helped lead his club to a deep playoff run and showcased premium run-producing ability, including two home runs in their second round matchup. There's plenty of power projection offensively with present bat speed and the ability to drive the ball gap-to-gap.