William James asked:
Hey Mack, do you think The Reds will entertain P Jon Niese for C Yasmani Grandel (your favorite prospect)?
Mack:
Hey Bill.
The quick answer is, yes.
Here’s the problem.
The Reds know they have one too many catching prospects, but they also know that many teams, one being the Mets, would love to deal for one of them. They do not have to settle for just anybody in deal for Grandal.
I called a scout friend of mine yesterday to get his spin on what it would take and he said… right now… either Matt Harvey or Jeurys Familia. We both were talking prospects for prospects and neither of us thought about if Niese would work here or if the Reds want a pitcher in return.
I’m doing a new series of posts that started today focusing on all 29 teams and how they match up for a possible trade with the Mets. I’m doing the American League first, but let’s take a quick look at the Reds rotation situation:
Here’s the Reds Rotation last year and their 2012 status:
Johnny Cueto: signed through 2014
Mike Leake: ARB eligible
Homer Bailey: ARB eligible
Travis Wood: ARB eligible
Dontrelle Willis: signed with Philadelphia today
Bronson Arroyo: signed through 2013
Edinson Volquez: ARB eligible
Technically, their rotation is intact which includes two long term contracts and four young studs, so I can’t see why they would be in the market for a starter.
No, it will take other players playing other positions to pry Yaz away and we’ll take a big look at that as the series continues.
4 comments:
Bailey, Arroyo, and Wood were not that good last year. Either was Volquez and Queto is hurt a lot. I know Niese wasn't great either, but I wouldn't be shocked if they try to upgrade somewhere here. Arroyo is the most logical choice. Plus five ERA for Bronson, very hittable in a hitters ballpark.
It might not be a popular opinion, but I'd part with Familia for Grandal right now. In fact, I'd rather hold on to Niese and trade Familia....not because Niese is better, but because Niese is a low-cost pitcher the Mets can keep at the back-end of the rotation for quite some time and Familia will bring back more in a trade. With the depth in the system, I don't think Familia will be missed, especially if he eventually winds up in the bullpen.
As I've written about before, I think the 'future' Mets rotation will have 3 homegrown pitchers and 2 established veterans to balance it out. With Harvey and Wheeler looking right now as locks for 2 of those 3 spots, it leaves one open. I'd just as soon have Jon Niese as the 5th starter as Familia.
The only hesitation I would have would be to keep Familia and to hope to trade him in a package for an established SP1 NEXT offseason. Dealing him Grandal now can potentially solidify a problem area for the team for years.
Michael:
Always keep what you know (Niese) and trade what you hope you know (Familia)
Mack - My thoughts exactly. Niese's upside may not be Familia's but he's in the majors already. Familia is an unknown.
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