9/23/12

Sunday 8am - ‘The War Room’ Question - 9-23-12

11 comments



The Mets had a 2012 payroll of $94.508mil.
Sandy Alderson is on record saying the 2013 payroll will be in the “$100mil range”.
The current 2013 ‘books’ stand at $54.475mil. Assuming you renew RA Dickey (+$4.450) and David Wright (+$14,250mil, that will add $18.7mil, with a new 2013 total of $73.175mil)
Some decisions to make:
1.    You will have to add $5mil to this figure if you decide to keep Mike Pelfrey and that decision has to be made before December rolls around 

2.    You have to decide whether you DFA or sign the following players to new, more expensive contracts:
RP     John  Rauch                  $3.5mil
OF     Andres Torres               $2.7mil

RHP  Ramon Ramirez           $2.65mil
C       Kelly Shoppach            $1.35mil
IF      Ronny Cedeno              $1.15mil
OF     Scott Hairston              $1.1mil

RP     Tim Byrdak                   $1.0mil

Lastly, C Josh Thole, 2B Daniel Murphy, and 1B Ike Davis are entering their first arbitration year and will be due a sizeable raise from the minimum
So the question is this…
What kind of team will there be in 2013, what will be the salary, how much is left, and who does the Mets go shopping for?

Mack
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11 comments:

Mack Ade said...

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Justin M. said...

Shoppach and Hairston are the only players I'm interested in re-signing from the DFA group. If pelf would sign a minimum contract I would be OK with having him as a backup 5 starter or potential bullpen guy. Murph and Davis are worth the ARB salary bumps. Thole is not, but we really don't have any other options, right?

I'm convinced 2013 will be a wash. Added to that Wright's inconsistencies this year and over the past few I think it is time to trade him. Get a BIG TIME OF prospect back in that deal and slot Flores in at 3B mid-way through 2013.

I would re-sign Dickey though. I think he is more of a sure bet to be a productive player over the next 4 years than Wright is, and at a cheaper salary.

Fill the rest of team with one year contracts (Melkey, Ellsbury) and minor leaguers. No long term deals. Allow supreme flexibility going into the off-season before 2014. Then make your push towards contention.

Mack Ade said...

Okay...

For now, let's give $250K more each to Thole and Murphy (what about Davis? I assume you would be okay with a raise of $500K more?)

Will the Wright trade before the season starts? Murphy to 3B?

Hairston has to be $3mil, right? That's an increase of $1.9mil. Let's say Shoppach at $2mil.

What about Jon Rauch?

(we have no idea salaries of players recieved in Wright deal).

Right now, on opening day, minus Wright is a team salary $63.925mil

That's $36.075mil to pay people obtained in Wright trade + anyone in free agency/trades THIS off-season

Charles said...

This team, without a forty million injection into their payroll, will continue to SUCK. I don't even blame the Wilpons. In a world where Jason Bay is allowed to keep cashing his paycheck, why shouldn't the Wilpons be allowed to destroy a few more seasons of Mets baseball. I blame Bud Selig, he's the good old boy allowing one of his club members take the team hostage.

Me, what would I do with and extra couple million, I'd make a list of the absolute top ten guys that I want on my team for the next five yrs, including the entire minor league system. Those I keep. Players 11 through 20 must be dangled via trade to get this team competitive for 2013.

My ten keepers: Dickey, Wheeler, Harvey, Niese, Davis, Tejada, Flores, Fulmer, Nimmo, and Tapia.

That means I'm trading wright. Have too. He brings back too much in a deal and his production already had declined. Half way through a new contract, he just won't be worth it, while the players we would get for him would just be starting to thrive. This team isn't far off, but it need the salary relief from Bay and Santana, and the prospects the Mets would get in a Wright deal.

Let Dickey be the veteran face of the team. Let Davis grow into a leadership role with his bat. He's already faced and beaten adversity in his first three yrs with the Mets.

If Alderson does this, by 2014, this team would at least be a .500 club and rising with plenty of pitching, room to add via free agents due to a low payroll, and hopefully two great players to put somewhere on the diamond from a Wright deal. Flores could certainly play third in David's absence.

I'm sick of this half ass rebuild, just get it done already. Trading David does it. Remember, we haven't won jack shit with him, we can do just as good without him.

Mack Ade said...

Charles:

I understand the frustration, but saying that "this team isn't far off" and then keeping only 10 players in the organization puts it going in the wrong direction again.

The Wilpons are taking a pass here. They became too visible and this is just a business to them.

The new Fox TV deal should be done in 30 days and it will put $50mil more in the pockets of the Mets... just for the siring rights... this is BIG money and even the Wilpons won't be able to screw this up once the contracts clear.

Let me ask you and Justin something...

On paper, you shouldn't trade or lose a young star who can be signed cheap. Jose Reyes should be on this team, Ruben Tejada should be playing 2B for the next 5 years and, with Davis and Wright, you don't have to worry about the infield until around 2017.

You've got around $13mil to sigh a CF... for the purpose of a name, let's just say Michael Bourn for the purpose of throwing out a name.

You sign the face of your team (Wright) and the new monies that come into play in 2014 are offset with the loss of monies saved when the Santana and Bay contracts go away.

You have an infield of Davis, Wilmer Flores, Tejada, and Wright.

Your outfield is a new 2014 FA, Bourn, and Nimmo

Your catcher is undetermined

Rotation: Harvey, Wheeler, Fulmer, Niese, Dickey

What's wrong with this?

Charles said...

Because they got the pitching. In 2013, with Dickey, Niese, Harvey, Santana, and Gee...they can easily compete if they just had some productive hitters. They showed that in the first half. They also showed what happens when you stop hitting. Of the ten players I listed, you could easily compete with those pitchers as long as you had some bats. Without the pitching, you die. That's why they're not far off. The hard part is the pitching...and they have it already. Now it's time to use the rest of your assets to get those bats.


Signing wright is a mistake. He's already declining. Forget FOX money, this team needs zero shitty contracts to compete.

Charles said...

Dickey has showed that he's one of the best starters over the last few seasons in the NL. Niese and Harvey will, at least, pitch themselves to 12-16 wins. How can anyone disregard Santana after what he showed this season before he was left out for 136 pitches.

I'm trading Wright no matter what. Whenever the best deal comes along. I just can't give him Zimmerman money and yrs for what he's showed in second half. It's time to trade.

Yes Mack, they should have been able to keep Reyes. They couldn't or didn't. Now, the dominos must fall. They need to build a sustainable winner which won't come with more crappy contracts.

Mack Ade said...

Charles: The Fox money is part of a 30-team network deal... the Mets have no control of it but their share would be $50mil

Mack Ade said...

Okay, so you have toe rotation, and you have your ten players... and you have around $36mil to spend in 2013 (not 2014) on the players secured in a Wright trade plus... who?

Charles said...

I don't care who, but they need one or two quality right handed bats. Outfielders. I'm letting Kirk play center everyday in 2013, or at least platoon him with Hairston. Yes, I'm resigning Scott. Maybe they could get a sweet package Which includes their next great power hitting outfielder by trading Wright. The point is to try to get somewhat competitive now, stay away from all long term contracts, and be ready to spend in 2014 and beyond.

Aside from a decline in attendance, what's the downside of losing Wright? If he was on another team, would you be willing to pony up 140 million over 7 yrs for a player with his stats? If the mets want to compete on a 100 million payroll, they can't swallow the back end of these type of contracts, simply because there's lower production. If they gave him a 7 yr, 140 mill contract seven yrs ago, would he have lived up to it right now? I don't think so. So why does anyone think he'll earn it now that he's that much older.
They need to use him via a trade to rebuild this team to win in two years. I'll accept a shit 2013 if there's a jump in major league ready prospects through trading him. That, coupled with two top seven draft choices in the next two drafts from shitty regular seasons, will help tremendously in sustaining great success in the future.

Mack Ade said...

Thanks Justin and Charles for your participation today.

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