8/19/13

Mack Ade – AM Report – 8-19-13 – Savannah, Cuban Players, Miquel Tejada, Jenrry Mejia, Marvin Price

RIP - Marvin Price

 

Loses as of Monday morning –

1)      Houston – 82…  2) Miami – 75…  3) White Sox – 74…  4) Cubs – 70…  5) Brewers – 70…  6) Phillies – 69…  7) Twins – 68…  8) Padres – 68…  9) Giants – 68…  10) Angels 68… 11) Toronto – 67… 12) Rockies – 67… 13) Seattle – 66…  14)  Mets 66

 

I was on Twitter on Sunday with with one the Mets Bloggers, discussing both Lucas Duda and Ike Davis. I mentioned that it was my opinion that Davis was not only a better player than Duda, but potentially would have a more successful future as the Mets first baseman.

The blogger said I was wrong because ‘Duda had a higher wRC+ this year than Davis.

Well, first you need to understand that I just originally entered the world of OPS and OBP, so judging a baseball player based on the call letters of a Washington D.C. television station was pretty Greek to me. I looked it up:

Weighted Runs Created (wRC) is an improved version of Bill James’ Runs Created (RC) statistic, which attempted to quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it by runs.  In Runs Created, instead of looking at a player’s line and listing out all the details (e.g. 23 2B, 15 HR, 55 BB, 110 K, 19 SB, 5 CS), the information is synthesized into one metric in order to say, “Player X was worth 24 runs to his team last year.”  While the idea was sound, James’ formula has since been superseded by Tom Tango’s wRC , which is based off of wOBA.

Similar to OPS+, Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) measures how a player’s wRC compares with league average.  League average is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a 125 wRC+ means a player created 25% more runs than league average. Similarly, every point below 100 is a percentage point below league average, so a 80 wRC+ means a player created 20% fewer runs than league average.

Okay, now that makes sense. Why didn’t you just say it was based on RC into wRC, based on wOBA converted into wRC+…  what the fuck?

Here’s how I (and Clint Eastwood) sees it:

Ike Davis had one of the worst first half season in the history of baseball, but his is now putting up quality results. More importantly, he’s swinging at less bad pitches, making pitchers having to pitch to him rather than just throw a curve into the dirt and letting Davis look like an ass chasing it.

Duda, on the other hand, hit a little better as a Met, but isn’t doing enough at the AAA level to warrant bringing him back to the Mets and taking Davis’ job away

              In the last 28 days, Davis has hit, in the majors,: .310 /.490/ .535/ 1.025.

Is that enough wRC+?

I’ve been wrong many times in my life, but I believe that the Mets are beginning to put together a core lineup to play alongside their excellent pitching staff. I believe Davis is one of them, alongside David Wright, Travis d’Arnaud, and Wilmer Flores. It’s only four guys but it represents 50% of the potential lineup.

I also believe that most of baseball is starting to realize that Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard are untouchable. The good news here is, the quicker this happens, everyone can get on to working on a legitimate trade rather than keep demanding one of these three guys.

Don’t give up on Ike Davis. His wRC+ is coming back guys.

 

Toby Hyde wrote a piece a couple of days ago that the Sand Gnats may be moving to Columbia, South Carolina in 2015. First thing first… the Mets affiliation deal with the Gnats runs out after the 2014 season and I don’t have to remind you all what a death valley Grayson Stadium is. No one hits the ball out of this place and when the heat hits around July 1st, it’s like playing baseball in Ethiopia. Now, I will tell you this. Moving to Columbia won’t give the players any relief. The city is completely below sea level and the hot spot of the state. The first thing I hope the Mets do is not review their affiliation here and        try to find a A-ball home somewhere on the Florid coast. Towns like Savannah and Las Vegas have too many extreme weather conditions for kids trying to become men.

I have attended Savannah Sand Gnats games since I first moved to Hilton Head Island in 1984 and there are still only two reasons people go out to these games… alcohol and fireworks. And, put them together on a ‘Two For Tuesday’ Firework Night and you actually will fill up around half the place. Never more.

They never even came close to a sell out when Johan Santana pitched here.

The team has been affiliated with six different teams since 1984, none of which are what the locals consider their ‘home team’, the Atlanta Braves. Savannah is one of those high school football size southern towns    that have built their entire social scene around drinking. Baseball is something that is played in between beer runs.

I don’t attend many Sand Gnats games anymore, for so many reasons not writing about. I hope the Mets don’t wait for the team to decide where they are going to play 2015. I would rather the Mets made the first move and left this town on their own terms.

 

Baseball’s headlines on Saturday continued to be off the field. The New York Times came out with a story prior to Sunday’s 60 Minutes feature on Alex Rodriquez, featuring A-Rod’s head attorney, combative Joseph Tacopina. It seems that Tacopina is trying to turn the tables on baseball by saying that they are out to get their client. In addition to this, 39-year old Kansas City Royals infielder, Miquel Tejada, was suspended for 105 games after testing positive for amphetamines. This is not to be confused with the two times he tested positive for Adderall or the fact that he lied about his age when he entered professional baseball.

The 60 Minutes outing is going to prove that Rodriquez has violated his agreement with baseball and Tejada has now tested positive three times… three times. We are never going to be allowed to enjoy this sport in its pure sense until all these cruds are banned for life. Things are going in the right direction, but the names don’t change. Get them out of baseball now.

 

In the last several seasons, MLB has seen an influx of Cuban-born players fleeing their home country to play professional baseball. Some notable names on this list include players such as Yoenis Cespedes, Kendrys Morales, Alexei Ramirez and Dodger sensation Yasiel Puig. Teams are hopeful that Jose Abreu’s abilities will carry over and allow him to be successful in the U.S. If you were to look at Abreu’s offensive numbers over the course of the last three seasons compared to Cespedes’ three years prior to leaving for the U.S., the stats are pretty similar. While Abreu hit .393 while bashing 47 doubles and driving in 252 RBIs, Cespedes hit.324, with 79 home runs and 242 RBIs. Given the success that Cespedes had immediately for the Oakland Athletics, don’t be surprised if major-league owners are ready to open up their checkbooks for Abreu. - http://throughthefencebaseball.com/cuban-slugger-jose-abreu/36669#VWYcigOUSwMYDz71.99

Mack – The baseball world is getting ready for 1B Jose Abreu and it once again looks like the Mets will be spectators to this process. How can you not want guys on your team like the names I made bold in the paragraph ahead of me? I truly don’t understand Sandy Alderson’s team building process sometimes. It’s like he’s trying to make chicken soup without the chickens.

 

Once again, the Mets management team and medical staff have proven they can’t manager a bowel movement. The injury to SP Jenrry Mejia was classic Mets. You have a pitcher, with a history of arm problems, throwing with a condition you already know I going to need surgery. You also have him pitching for a team going nowhere this season. You very publically announce that your doctors say it is okay for him to pitch, even though last week’s outing that he opening admitted things were going south with the elbow. Nothing changes and he came back out Saturday night, only to pull himself when he knew he was jeopardizing all the good work he had done coming back from his survey. Now, at worse, we could have a seasonal or career ending situation that all could have been avoided if the surgery was performed  before he returned to the mound.

No one expected much from Mejia this season so there was no reason to rush him back. And no one ever seems accountable from this medical staff for their decisions that continue to backfire.

 

Marvin D. Price, the youngest baseball player ever in the Negro American League, passed away in Chicago on Sunday July 21, 2013 after a long battle with Alzheimer's disease according to an e-mail Thursday from his niece Maria Stimpson. He was 81. Price was born in Chicago on April 5, 1932, the second youngest child to Mary Emma Anderson Price and Porter Earl Price. As a youngster, he developed a passionate appetite for the sport.  http://www.examiner.com/article/marvin-price-youngest-to-play-the-negro-leagues-passes-away-at-81

4 comments:

Kevin said...

I fully understand wanting to be patient with Ike in hopes of finding a cornerstone player but Abreu makes way too much sense for this team to not be very aggressive. They have money, they have positional need and they don't have to give up the draft pick to sign him.

It's certainly going to be an interesting offseason. I just hope it's not a dud like last offseason (minus the Dickey trade).

Mack Ade said...

I have absolutely no problem replacing Davis with Abreu, but not Duda

Reese said...

Wouldn't the $4-$5 million you'd have to pay Ike Davis in arbitration help offset the cost of Abreu by trading or non-tendering Ike?

Mack Ade said...

definitely, but Alderson just doesn't operate this way. He'd rather sign some .230 hitter with a respectable wRC+ or wOPA or some other shit like that