Mack's Morning Report - 12/6 - Fast Ball Spin, Michael Choice, Klaw Chat, Curtis Granderson, Ruben Tejada

  

Fast Ball Spin -

An average MLB fastball makes 2200 revolutions per minute (RPMs) on its way to home plate. Spin is just one of 27 measurements provided by Trackman’s technology. Trackman’s military grade Doppler radar was introduced to golf in 2003 and first applied to baseball in 2008. Trackman Baseball was officially launched in 2011, and is now being used at the MLB, college, and amateur levels to capture accurate measurements on both the batted and pitched ball as an aid in scouting and player development.

What’s a good fastball spin? As evidenced by the chart below, the spin put on a fastball directly correlates to ground ball rate, fly ball rate, and swings-and-misses. (As for whether high or low spin on a fastball is better—that’s a topic for a different day.) Knowing your spin helps you better understand what type of pitcher you are at present. BP

Avg FB Spin Rate
High Spin Fastballs (AFL)
Parent Club	Pitcher	Avg RPM
KC	Jason Adam	2611
SD	Adys Portillo	2578
SF	Adalberto Mejia	2575
PHI	Ken Giles	2553
KC	Malcom Culver	2533
TEX	Matthew West	2507
CLE	Shawn Armstrong	2507
LAD	Yimi Garcia	2504
SF	Kyle Crick	2499
CIN	Michael Lorenzen	2483
TEX	Keone Kela	2470
NYM	Hansel Robles	2465
SEA	Dominic Leone	2463
KC	Angel Baez	2457
TOR	Drew Hutchison	2453
	MLB Average	2200

"If you want to make peace with your enemy, you have to work with your enemy. Then he becomes your partner." Nelson Mandela

 

BP Trade Idea for Winter Meeting –

Orioles acquire Daniel Murphy from the Mets for Jonathan Schoop and a lower-end pitching prospect -  The Mets already made this mistake once, not dealing Jonathon Niese prior to a 2013 season that saw his value shrink. And while Sandy Alderson has publicly said that the Mets intend to keep Daniel Murphy, he will be a free agent at the end of the 2015 season and even the most beer-goggled Met fans do not see him as a big part of their Next Great Team. Enter the Baltimore Orioles, who have money to spend and a hole to fill (surprise, surprise) at second base. With two years of arbitration left, Murphy is looking at making somewhere between $12-15 million (optimistically) prior to free agency--and for a player who has been worth 4.3 WARP over the last two seasons, that's a strong value. From the Orioles' side, Jonathan Schoop seems like a name that might make sense coming back the other way given the strength of their infield and the Mets' needs everywhere (except third base). Schoop plus a lower-end arm should be able to get the job done here--or, if I take off my subjective hat for a second, the Mets should totally hold out for Kevin Gausman. He's dreamy. That could happen. That could totally happen. I'm going to order my shirsey right now. —Bret Sayre - http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=22345

Mack – I don’t understand the rational here at all. Why would the Mets trade Murphy for a minor league second baseman when you already have Wilmer Flores on your roster and you need either a shortstop or an outfielder. Yes, Schoop did start his career on short but he hasn’t played there in close to three years. And yes, he has some pop, but not as much as Flores.

Look, the Orioles can have Murphy but they’re going to have to come up with something better than this. Now… the Gausman idea… now you’re talkin’.

 

Josh Chapdelaine -

Ruben Tejada may be a solid bounce-back candidate to take a risk on if the Mets can upgrade the outfield and receive significant production from first base. The 24-year-old is only one season removed from a .289/.333/.355 effort that many saw as a precursor of what was to come. If the Panamanian can return to his old approach at the plate and spray the ball rather than induce pop-ups, he will have significant value. Tejada hit line drives 30% of the time in 2012, a number that dropped to 19.9% in 2013. Unsurprisingly, the shortstop hit towering fly balls 4% more and pounded the ball on the ground nearly 7% greater in 2013 than 2012. He was simply making weaker contact, but all other factors remained even keel: Tejada swung at only 27.2% of pitches outside of the strike zone in 2013, a 4% decrease from 2012. http://aroundciti.com/ruben-tejadas-chance-to-start-in-2014-continues-to-rise/

Mack – You know my thoughts on the Mets infield… leave it alone with Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Tejada, and David Wright in place. It’s my believe that both Davis and Tejada had bad years and aren’t bad players.

 
Michael Choice –

I’m not done with this guy yet.

As we all know, Choice was part of a trade this week from the Oakland Athletics to the Texas Rangers. Ask anyone in Texas and they will tell you that they need young pitching.

Yes, I know… Craig Gentry was part of this deal and, on paper, it looks like Choice will be a starter for Texas this year, but they have the money and the players to go out in the market and get themselves a proven outfielder.

The Mets have a guy like Rafael Montero (maybe packaged with Cesar Puello) that they can offer and possibly pull off this deal. Then, you put him right field along with Young and Lagares and you’ve just saved $17mil a year that can be spent for Stephen Drew or a top line starter.

Just a thought.

 

Klaw Chat –

David (NYC) - Would Granderson at 4 years, $55-60 million be a bad deal for the Mets?

Klaw  - I don't think so. Four years for him is reasonable - you're not getting too far into his decline phase.

Dan the Mets Fan (CA) - If Jenry Mejia gets a spot in the Mets rotation what kind of year would you expect from him?

Klaw  - It's #2 starter stuff if he can stay healthy. The problem is he's never thrown 110 innings in a season.

Chris (NY) - Hypothetically, is Noah Syndergaard ready to start the year in the bigs?

Klaw  - No. Nor would the Mets want to do so


So, another day passes and no signing of Curtis Granderson. The terms are set...  $16mil a year for 4-years + your second round draft pick. At the same time, your centerfielder (Juan Lagares) is on a plane heading to New York to have his damaged knee looked at. All we know at this point is he went down in winter ball.

Sandy Alderson can buy fish dinners for every free agent out there, but he's not going to find anyone this young (sic) and talented for this kind of money. It's nowhere near Nelson Cruz money.

So, the negotiation period is basically over. Now it's just decision time

I'll repeat what I said yesterday. I think this ship has passed. People who want to work together meet halfway when they reach the end of the negotiation process and they are still a couple of million dollars away from an agreement.

At this level, it's mostly tax money anyway, right?

Well, actually it's ego money.

A good friend of mine (a New Yorker) contacted me yesterday via email asking me if the Tigers had signed Joe Nathan.

I emailed back "yes... 2-years, $20mil"

He emailed back to me "a man's got to eat..."

I think this is where Alderson is right now. It must be killing him that he can't close this deal. It's Jason Bay money plus a draft pick

I'm no longer a drinking man, but if I was Sandy I'd hop in a cab and go find a quiet bar somewhere on Queens Boulevard and order himself a martini. I'd then contact Scott Boras and thank him for the time he spent trying to convince his client to take the piss poor offer the Mets made and wish them both well in the off season.

I would then go home early, turn the phones off, and turn on my DVR and get caught up on the last two Walking Dead shows he probably has missed..