Morning everyone.
I was putting together my piece earlier this week on Ryan Braun when I realized that the Mets do have some excess at certain positions and could package together four players for someone that might make the difference on this team. They are:
2B Daniel Murphy - we need to decide who is the long range second baseman here and I'm ready to give the job to Wilmer Flores
1B - Lucas Duda - I'm not sure if everyone wants him, but I'm going with Ike Davis for at least one more year.
SP - Rafael Montero - I hate to give up a top rotation prospect, but we can afford to do this and still walk away with one of the more talented rotations in the league.
OF - Cesar Puello - I know we don't have a ton of outfielders, but an untested one isn't the answer to our third slot (Young and Lagares playing the other two). He also (as in the case of my Braun idea) can be a good addition to any deal that gets the Mets an MLB tested outfielder.
So I ask you...
Who can the Mets realistically try and obtain with these five guys?
22 comments:
Well, I for one would pick up the phone and call Colorado and make the offer for either SS Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. I truly believe there is enough meat in this offer to get one of these done.
Colorado wants to shed salary and Tulo is on the books for $20mil a year through 2020 while CarGo has four more years left on his deal. The 2014 amount is $10,928,571, which fits the Mets 2014 budget perfectly (end in 2017 at $20, 429,000).
Mack Iam ready to give Flores the 2base job too. Sandy has to shop Murphy this winter! He had a lot of career highs at his 2013 season. So a package around Murphy, Montero and Puello does have some value in my oppinion. Plus we add Duda this package could get you a real quality bat like Gonzales. But i would prefer a SS via trade and a OF-bat like Grandi or Cruz via free agency
By the way...Murphy is our Santa this year. If you think about the history of our santas i get the feeling Sandy IS TRYING to trade murphy
I like Brian Kenny's comments about the Mets yesterday and he advises the Mets not to sign half-assed players or routine pitchers like Arroyo. I would much rather use what excess I have on this team and get myself one stud to add to Wright.
I then would step back and see what my lineup looks like (Wright, let's say Tulo, Chris Yound, Ike, d'Arnaud) and go from there with the nucleus of my pitching staff (Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Harvey in 2015, and Thor in July) intact.
Agree on Flores. I like Murph but, Flores will be an RBI machine. I think Davis would be more attractive to the Rockies and Duda/Satin are a nice high OPS pairing for the Mets. I don't deal Montero. I know I'll get a good deal of disagreement but, I like him more than Wheeler. He shows more consistency and control. I think Wheeler will have trouble going long in games and durability is a question. I also think Wheeler's value in a trade is much higher than Montero's, so I would look to deal him for a long term solutions at Shortstop or Outfield. Hard to give up on Puello but, he's a high risk, high upside proposition so, if the right deal is coming, I'll include him. I think this package could get a Kemp or Tulo or Cargo but, I don't do the deal from a Mets perspective. Kemp and Tulo are too fragile and I think their deals will hurt a lot in three years when a patient Met FO could have positioned us for a solid long term run. Cargo? I like a lot but…I want youth and control if I'm giving up Montero, Wheeler or Puello.
This package to the Royals for Alex Gordon.
OK JD... then, who would you trade Wheeler, Puello, and Murphy for?
I think you're underrating Gordon. He's be a huge addition to our OF. But if the Royals top target is really Beltran, I can't see them signing him and turning around and trading a less expensive OF.
I think you're underrating Gordon. He's be a huge addition to our OF. But if the Royals top target is really Beltran, I can't see them signing him and turning around and trading a less expensive OF.
I say we bite the bullet and stay the course one more yr. This way we can continue to build through the draft and intl signings and have more pieces to trade. Also will have a better idea what we have in Puello, Nimmo, Cichinni etc.
Wheeler for Baez in my dream scenario. Profar or Boegarts as a secondary idea (I know you're not hugely fond of Profar but, I like that swing).
Milwaukee wants and needs to get ride of Braun. If you can trade those four for him,that'd be fine!
I'd go after Dee Gordon, for a minor league pitcher. I'll go Gorski Pill orMazzoni.
Or if the Dodgers are looking to shell contracts Kemp and add Plawecki. But LA has to put some money coming back.
First off, congrats to Mack on an interesting War Room. And I'm not quite ready to concede the 2B job to Flores when EYJ could give us the speed we need in the leadoff spot. Let them fight it out in ST.
Then let me agree with Brian Kenny on not signing half-assed players and routine pitchers, but disagree on calling Arroyo a routine pitcher. A consistant 200+ innings, sub 4.00 ERA, sub 1.30 Whip is not routine in my eyes. My only reservation is his age. He'll be 37 next season, and if he insists on 3 years I'd pass. I don't think of Halliday, Kazmir or Feldman as routine pitchers either.
Now to the trades: First off, I am resisting giving up Montero. I'd prefer to give up Gee, who might have more value, as major league proven, anyway. I began talking up a trade for Braun a long time ago. I haven't heard anything indicating the Brewers eagerness to move him since, quite the contrary, but he'd be my first call. If rebuffed:
I'd move on to the Dodgers. The package of Murph, Gee, Duda, Puello and deGrom, say, should be enough to get me Matt Kemp and Joc Pederson with the Dodgers picking up 1/3 of Kemps remaining contract. I might have to add another prospect like Vaughn or Cecchini, but it would be worth it.
Lastly, an outside the box trade, but one that would certainly energize disgruntled Mets fans, would be that package - Murphy, Gee, Duda, Puello, deGrom and (get this) Travis d'Arnaud, to Toronto for the 2 Juans, Bautista and Reyes, with the Jays sending $22 million in cash to bring Reyes salary to $16 million a year for the 4 years remaining on his contract. I think the Jays would love to have TdA back, and they really need a 2B and a SP, so the deal might appeal to them. We could sign Navarro or Pierzinski or even Buck until Plawecki is ready to take over.
Oh, I forgot to mention that I am including Tejada is the deal with Toronto. Let them see if he can play SS at thr major league level. (I wish we still had the ability to edit our comments.)
To Herb, they already have a slugging catcher in Arencibia, so TdA is somewhat superfluous, hence their ability to trade him in the first place.
For the general question, I would do Murphy, Davis, Mejia and Plawecki. My rationale is that Davis is considered to have the higher upside, let someone else risk Mejia's health while we insert Montero into the rotation on day one, and if we have TdA, then Plawecki is the smarter chip to deal as we have no outfielders of any note coming up through the system.
As to who gets this offer, Braun would be my first choice, followed by Tulowitzki. CarGo's splits
outside of Coors Field are disturbing. I'd even consider asking about a package of Javier Baez and Jeff Samardzija from the Cubs which would enable you to flip Niese as part of another deal for an outfielder. Assuming you fill that gap with a solid (if not star) player, then you have the other corner position open for Puello who you retained to start 2015 when Chris Young's ill-conceived deal ends. You go with Tejada for one more year. 1st and 2nd base are some combination of Lucas Duda, Wilmer Flores, Josh Satin, Eric Young and perhaps even Alan Dykstra. Of course, you still haven't spent any money so a Corey Hart 1B contract could work, too.
See...
The point I'm trying to make here is...
Yes, the Mets need a bunch of players, but they actually do have some bargaining chips past their young pitchers. They have two left hand hitting first basemen (sic)... and they have two second basemen... two of these players can be packaged with one starter and you don't hurt this team while, at the same time, fill in one of your holes
Right now, Flores is a 2nd baseman in name only. With his lack of mobility, I'd feel much more comfortable trying him at 1st. EYJ is a better option at 2nd.
Steve -
The problem is that the Mets do not have any control as to what position players play in winter leagues down in Latin America. He's not getting any quality 1B time at all.
Reese - After Arencibia's season as the Jays starting catcher, hitting below the Mendoza line with an OPS of .592 (did I just say .592???) his 21 HRs were irrelevant. His 148 Ks in 474 ABs didn't help his cause. Jays fans are sick of him and I suspect Alex A would love to get his prime prospect back in the fold.
Mack - the only two second basemen the Mets have now are Murph and EYJ. We don't know what we have in Flores. As Steve says, his lack of range may definitely work against him at second. And he isn't getting any experience at first base. I thought he acquitted himself very well at third before he injured his ankle. To me, his best use is as a trade chip. I don't think we can really count on him for anything else.
Mack, your original premise is absolutely correct. The Mets have several excellent trade chips, even without seriously denting their wealth of power arms. I believe we could fill both, the shortstop and power hitting corner outfielder holes, with separate trades. The Murphy, Montero/Gee, Puello based package aligns very well with L.A. (for Kemp or Ethier) the Jays, (for Bautista) or the Brewers. (for Braun) It also lines up well with the A's (for Cespedes and Lowrie) if you add Flores. Meanwhile, a Duda/Davis, Flores based package aligns with the Rays ( for Escobar and maybe a young pitcher) You'd have to merge the Murphy and Davis packages to bid for Tulowitzki, but then you could signa FA outfielder. (Granderson) Your point is that Alderson has a great amount of room to maneuver and a lot of time to do it in.
Montero for one of the young Arizona shortstops?
I don't think any packages of average major leaguers and second-tier prospects is going to get us a star (Braun, Tulo, Cargo, Bautista, Andrus) It's gonna have to be Wheeler, Thor, Niese or maybe a Montero/TdA combo. If they are really available, some team is going to offer a top 25 prospect. We probably have to lower our expectations on the return. Everything lines up much better for us to have a nice trade surplus next year. With a full year of development from Montero, Thor, Mejia, then a healthy Harvey and Hefner, we have way to many starters. Hopefully TdA show us why he was rated so highly and makes Plawecki expendable. Some development by Black, Familia, etc could make Parnell expendable. That's an awful lot of nice trade chips to use w/o harming the core of your team. Sign a few lower-level FA and trade (Duda or Davis) and (Murph or Flores) and a secondary arm like deGrom this year to help fill immediate needs and field a respectable team for 2014. But don't let the fact that the Mets made this year out to be "the year" distract from the fact that everything points to next offseason really being the time for change.
Willis- If we trade with Arizona for Gregorius or Owings, Alderson should seek to expand the trade to include A.J.Pollack, who the D-Backs have said they would listen on.
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