Here's how the deal could work:
Cubs-David Price, Wilmer Flores
Rays-Jeff Samardzjia, Daniel Murphy, Ike Davis
Mets-Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist
These would be the key pieces moving in the trade. There could be some cash consideration and other minor league prospects involved but I'm focusing on the main players that would change teams.
In this scenario the Mets lose the Arbitration eligible Murphy and Davis, as well Wilmer but acquire their SS of the future and a power bat to play 2B.
The Rays unload Price's contract, and Zobrist's as well. They also acquire two starters, including the power lefty bat they've sought for 1B. Samardzjia steps in as their SP2/3 and is under team control through 2015.
The Cubs acquire an Ace to build their future staff (and team) around. Flores could hit 25-30 HRs in Wrigley, and give them someone who can play 2B-3B, providing an offensive upgrade at both.
This trade is only made if the Cubs are willing to give up Baez. I wouldn't make the same deal for Castro.
18 comments:
So the Mets essentially give up spare parts in Flores and Davis (neither of whom has a defined role) and Daniel Murphy (selling high on his 2013 season), but wind up with the 37 HR slugging Baez and the versatile Zobrist (who, incidentally, could play SS).
If you could pull this off I'd lobby for you getting Alderson's job. Of course it would mean Eric Young is your second baseman or Tejada at SS and Zobrist at 2nd but I could live with that for a year if Baez is the real deal. He's your next Wil Myers/Mike Trout.
I never care about 'arbitration eligible' players. This isn't my money so I love to spend it.
I absolutely love the deal... now, pull it off :)
My question is how in hell do the Mets end up with a top prospect and a solid major leaguer while only giving up Murph, Ike, and Flores. This just seems way too good to be true.
Mack-You might not but it seems like our FO does.
Reese-If there's anything this offseason has reminded us is that never can tell when it comes to trades. Our spare parts might be desired pieces to other GMs.
As for being spare parts with undefined rolls- Davis and Murphy are the starting left side of the infield, and have been for the past three years (when healthy). Flores is our top homegrown hitting prospect.
It's not like we'd be offering 4th/5th OF types, fringy prospects or utility IF'ers. It all comes down to how much Theo and Hoyer covet Price.
If so, would they center a trade around Baez? If the answer is yes, than the Mets absolutely have to join the conversation, if not facilitate it. A couple of drinks into happy hour at the Winter Meetings and who knows? By midnight, it's a done a deal...haha
Speaking of, I can just imagine over the years how many GMs woke up bleary eyed nursing a severe headache, turning on the TV the next morning screaming--"I DID WHAT!!"
Probably closer to the truth, especially 20+ years ago and before, than most fans would want to imagine.
Peter-I'm sure if you told Mets fans this time last season that R.A. Dickey would net you MLB's #1 catching prospect, the trading and a team's #2 pitching prospect you'd say the same thing.
Same with a Nats fan if you asked them a few days ago about what they'd have to give up if they wanted Fister.
It's all in the perceived value and specific need a team has, moreso than talent. Even the blockbuster Fielder-Kinsler deal isn't really a value for value trade.
Also, I said that other prospects or players may be involved. I just provided the foundation of the deal.
Fill in the blanks with who else you think would be required to pull of a deal like this.
Let's not forget Flores was our top hitting prospect at this time a year ago and many wanted to see him start the year in New York.
Now because he struggled in his brief stint you're going to undervalue his hitting potential. We all know he can't field. What if stayed at AAA all year putting up the monster numbers he did?
Would you be so quick to dismiss his potential worth on the open market?
Also, Flores is only a little over a year older than Baez. I don't think Flores has the potential of Baez, but his potential is still well above-average and in a park like Wrigley his power numbers would flourish.
Plus, say what you will, but in this trade the Mets have given up their starting 1B, 2B, and a highly touted prospect who projects to be a potential hitting star (albeit with an iron glove).
The Cubs would be parting with their top prospect but are getting a Cy-Young winner still in his prime, as well as a player who is a highly regarded hitting prospect in his own right.
It's not like I'm proposing the Mets could trade Duda, Tejada and Capt. Kirk. or don Dekker.
A deal that could make even more sense is if Baez goes to the Rays instead (sorry but Murph, Davis and Flores won't get the Mets a top 5 position prospect AND a better 2B)and they send Hak-Ju Lee and Mikie Mahtook to the Mets. Lee, Mahtook and Zobrist is a fantastic haul for what they're giving up, the Rays get a better prospect at the same position and the Cubs don't even give up anything else. Seems more fair for all teams involved.
Rays: Samardzjia, Baez, Murph, Ike
Cubs: Price, Wilmer
Mets: Lee, Mahtook, Zobrist
The rays could get a better return for Price alone than that. He is far more valuable than Dickey, who netted us two top 25 prospects.
Throw in Thor and you're getting closer.
D-Whit- Don't get me wrong I really, really want to believe this trade will happen. I absolutely love Zobrist and his versatility. To be able to play SS, 2B, and either corner OF position is extremely valuable which may be our ultimate downfall. I feel like to net just Zobrist without Baez, Montero would have to be involved. With Baez, we would probably have to give up even more.
I'm not knocking Flores for his short, underwhelming, bad-ankle infested major league stint, I'm just point out the flaws that these teams are going to look at when assessing him. All they really have to judge him on is this short stint, his inflated PCL numbers and his sub-par glove so he might be undervalued by the Cubs.
You can say all you want about Ike's potential but the fact of the matter is the team that takes the chance on him is buying low (extremely low) and we probably won't get a top prospect such as Baez but maybe a player in a somewhat similar situation to Ike's. I'm talking about a first round draft pick who has not really lived up to his potential yet (maybe Tim Beckham?)
So all we really have to offer in this trade to get that good of a return is Murph. I think this trade could happen but I think we'd definitely have to give up Montero and maybe a guy like Nimmo or Cecchini as well.
Sam-I'm sorry but the Mets get rooked in that deal. You might as well get Castro instead. Lee is a slick fielder, but I don't trust the bat. Mahtook looks like the second coming of Chris Coghlan. If the power's not there by 23, it's just not happening. AAAA/5th OF.
Thor?? Yeah, right. Teams trade on need, and perception more than talent. the Myers trade is the anomaly, it's the exception not the rule. most trades do not match evenly or fairly. you act like to acquire a player who has yet played a major league game you have to sell the house, or even more to acquire price.
If Hoyer and Epstein feel trading Baez make's the cubs a better team, they'll do it, and might do it for less than what the fans, media or public think he's worth. but our perception of a player's worth resides in a vacuum. we don't consider all the other factors, including the often overlooked one of a particular organization placing a higher or lower value on a player who could be a prospect or piece of a trade.
I don't think the Cubs would part with Baez, but if it netted them Price???
As for Price, I think the Rays problem is a desire for more prospects but the reality of knowing they need to improve in the here and now too.
They are a 3rd place or worse team in 2014 and maybe 2015 if you trade Price for a slew of prospects, no matter how high their ceiling.
That's why if you offer the Rays two or three players who help the team immediately and take over the remaining $5 mil on 2013 the Rays would settle for less than everyone thinks they will get for Price.
Peter-What you say makes sense. I could see those players being involved as well. The question is, if were to make a difference in acquiring or not acquiring Baez, would you include them? I'd say yes you would. As for Ike. It depends on what Friedman sees in him. The 30 HR potential or the guy with the long, hitch-filled swing who gets pissed at every called strike made against him.
The Rays are a power starved team and flaws or not, Ike has power and was hitting well before his latest injury abruptly ended his season.
Teams will pay for power, often overpay. Case in point Chris Young. It's the threat that he might jack 20+ HRs that a team would pay him $7.5 million.
Otherwise he's Rajah Davis, and he's certainly not going to make anywhere near $7.5 million.
Cubs do that deal in a heartbeat.
Mets do it even faster.
Rays hold out for more, much more. Price is an elite chip.
For example, the Rays could probably get Taijuan Walker, Stefen Romero and Austin Wilson from Seattle. Then they could easily get Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy and a decent pitching prospect from the Mets for Zobrist. So you're going to need to give up much more if you want to make this trade.
I like the idea and concept but the Rays lose big time in these deals. Mets win big time. Cubs give up something very valuable for something valuable.
Agree with Herb. Price along would net the Rays much more. Thinking 3 of the teams Top 4 prospects. All three being top 100 prospects. d'Arnaud, Montero, Flores & Vic Black wouldn't be enough in my opinion if I'm the Rays.
If the Mariners deal Walker, even for Price, their GM should be fired.
My view differs regarding the Rays because I think they're in between. Sure they'd love to get the 4-5 best prospects a team like Seattle or even the Mets have. But most of those prospects are 2-3 years away. But Tampa Bay has to keep pace with the competition this year and next. If they trade Price for top prospects they haven't addressed their more immediate needs. If they trade Price for let's say the package Herb mentions. Walker replaces Price in the rotation, but the other two guys are a year or two away.
The trick for the Rays in any trade of Price is getting players to improve them immediately and in the future. At this juncture for the franchise it's my belief that the former is more important than the latter.
Friedman is a shrewd GM so we'll see what he does. But to keep the franchise viable, the Rays have to remain contenders. In the AL East that is going to be difficult if they do a prospect-loaded deal for Price.
Post this idea on a Rays blog....
I predict a less than enthusiastic response...
Craig-I'm sure it would. So would the Dickey trade if you posted that on a Jays blog before it happend last December or the Fister deal on a Tigers blog. Even the Fielder/Kinsler deal would be shot down on most Tiger and some Ranger blogs too.
Just because some uneven/surprising trades happened in the past doesn't mean that every trade proposal could happen. Look at it this way:, Price is way more valuable than Samardzjia, but just to show how unbalanced this is lets just they have equal value. That means you think Murphy and Davis could get you Zobrist, that is just ridiculous. The only way this works is if you completely take out Zobrist from the deal.
D Whit -
I don't think Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik is in any danger of being fired, but only yesterday it was reported in MLBTradeRumors that the Mariners might be willing to include Walker in a deal to get Price. Here's the link:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/mariners-other-teams-could-bid-for-david-price.html
To your point that the Rays need immediate improvement if they trade Price, two of the three players I mentioned for the M's are major league ready. Walker is expected to debut this year, as is Stefan Romero, who could slide right into the Rays outfield.
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